• 제목/요약/키워드: Qualitative Risk Assessment

검색결과 158건 처리시간 0.026초

인적요인을 고려한 연안해역 위험도 평가모델 비교·분석 (Comparison and Analysis on Risk Assessment Models of Coastal Waters considering Human Factors)

  • 김인철;안광
    • 한국항해항만학회지
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    • 제40권1호
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2016
  • 국제기구에서 제시해 온 해양사고 예방대책은 주로 선박의 구조 및 복원성 강화, 선원의 교육 훈련, 해상교통환경 개선에 중점을 둔 것이었다. 해양사고통계를 분석한 결과, 사고는 주로 연안해역에서 인적요인에 의해 발생하였다. 이에 기존의 사고예방대책들이 통계분석 결과에 호응하는지 검토하기 위해 사고조사기법인 SHELL모델에 대입하였다. 결과적으로 연안해역에서 인간과실을 방지하기 위해서는 선박 운항자와 항행여건 사이의 상호작용에 대한 인간공학적 접근이 필요함이 도출되었다. 이를 위해 인간의 의사결정 메커니즘으로써 라스무센의 SRK 피라미드, 사고로 표현된 해상운송시스템의 붕괴에 관한 미국 연안경비대 등의 조사 지침서, 그리고 위험성평가모델인 IWRAP, PAWSA, ES모델, PARK모델과 NURI모델의 장단점을 검토하였다. 그 결과, 비록 기존의 위험성 평가모델은 항만이나 접근수로에서 유효성이 인정되었다고 하나 연안해역에서는 보완이 필요하며, 선박운항자가 직관적으로 해역의 상대적 위험도를 인식할 수 있도록 위험표시도를 발간할 필요가 있으며 이를 위해 선박운항자가 느끼는 정성적 위험도를 정량적으로 표시하기 위한 새로운 한국형 모델의 개발 필요성을 제안하였다.

IPA를 이용한 개인정보 위험도 분석 연구 (A Study on Analysis of Personal Information Risk Using Importance-Performance Analysis)

  • 정수진;김인석
    • 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
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    • 제15권6호
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    • pp.267-273
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    • 2015
  • 정보통신계의 발달로 인하여 등장하는 새로운 기술들로 인하여 새로운 개인정보의 형태가 나타나고 있다. 이에 따라, 기존 개인정보들과 결합되어 사용되어지는 개인정보들이 점차 늘어나고 있다. 현행 개인정보보호법에서 정의하는 결합된 정보에 대한 개인정보 위험도를 측정하는 방법은 정성적으로 제시되고 있어, 개인정보 위험도가 평준화되기는 어렵다. 본 논문에서는 기존 연구된 개인정보 위험도 평가 방법을 기반으로 개인정보 중요도와 가중치를 측정한 다음 IPA를 통해 개인정보의 위험도를 분석하는 모델을 제시하는데 그 목적을 두고 있다. 본 연구를 통하여 사용자의 주관적인 판단을 배제할 수 있고, 결합된 개인정보 위험도 산정에 사용될 수 있다. 또한, 제시되는 정략적인 위험도는 객관적인 지표로 사용될 수 있는 기준을 제시할 수 있을 것이다.

퍼지 AHP를 이용한 자율주행차량의 운행 위험도 평가 모델 개발 연구 (A Study on the Development of Driving Risk Assessment Model for Autonomous Vehicles Using Fuzzy-AHP)

  • 김시원;권재경;황재성;이상수;이철기
    • 한국ITS학회 논문지
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    • 제22권1호
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    • pp.192-207
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    • 2023
  • Lv.4 자율주행의 상용화를 위하여 안전한 도로환경과 자율주행차량이 안전하게 운행할 수 있는 구체적인 정의가 필요되고, 미래 교통안전 문제에 대비하기 위해 자율주행차량의 안전한 운행 여부를 판단할 수 있는 위험도 평가모델이 요구된다. 자율주행차량의 운행 위험요소를 선정 및 등급화를 수행하였으나, 자율주행차량의 사고 발생 원인과 운행 자료 구득에 어려움이 있어 자율주행 분야 전문가 설문조사를 활용하여 정성적 자료로 의사결정방법을 적용하였다. 의사결정자의 애매모호한 언어적 표현, 불확실함을 정량적 수치로 변환하는 퍼지-계층화 분석법을 통해 다기준 의사결정에 있어 기존의 계층화 분석법(AHP)의 단점을 보완할 수 있었다. 상위·하위속성들의 가중치 도출 과정을 거쳐, 물리적 인프라인 도로선형이 자율주행차량의 운행 위험도에 가장 중요한 위험요소로 분석되었다. 또한, 자율주행차량의 운행 위험도 범례를 통하여 평가 대상지 5곳에 대한 자율주행차량 운행 위험 여부를 도출하였다.

국내 전출력 원전 적용 화재 인간신뢰도분석 절차 개발 (Development of a Fire Human Reliability Analysis Procedure for Full Power Operation of the Korean Nuclear Power Plants)

  • 최선영;강대일
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제35권1호
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this paper is to develop a fire HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) procedure for full power operation of domestic NPPs (Nuclear Power Plants). For the development of fire HRA procedure, the recent research results of NUREG-1921 in an effort to meet the requirements of the ASME/ANS PRA Standard were reviewed. The K-HRA method, a standard method for HRA of a domestic level 1 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) and fire related procedures in domestic NPPs were reviewed. Based on the review, a procedure for the fire HRA required for a domestic fire PSA based on the K-HRA method was developed. To this end, HRA issues such as new operator actions required in the event of a fire and complexity of fire situations were considered. Based on the four kinds of HFE (Human Failure Event) developed for a fire HRA in this research, a qualitative analysis such as feasibility evaluation was suggested. And also a quantitative analysis process which consists of screening analysis and detailed analysis was proposed. For the qualitative analysis, a screening analysis by NUREG-1921 was used. In this research, the screening criteria for the screening analysis was modified to reduce vague description and to reflect recent experimental results. For a detailed analysis, the K-HRA method and scoping analysis by NUREG-1921 were adopted. To apply K-HRA to fire HRA for quantification, efforts to modify PSFs (Performance Shaping Factors) of K-HRA to reflect fire situation and effects were made. For example, an absence of STA (Shift Technical Advisor) to command a fire brigade at a fire area is considered and the absence time should be reflected for a HEP (Human Error Probability) quantification. Based on the fire HRA procedure developed in this paper, a case study for HEP quantification such as a screening analysis and detailed analysis with the modified K-HRA was performed. It is expected that the HRA procedure suggested in this paper will be utilized for fire PSA for domestic NPPs as it is the first attempt to establish an HRA process considering fire effects.

원전 계측제어시스템에 대한 사이버보안성 평가 방법론 개발 (Development of Cyber Security Assessment Methodology for the Instrumentation & Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants)

  • 강영두;정길도
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제11권9호
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    • pp.3451-3457
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    • 2010
  • 사이버보안성 평가는 대상이 되는 시스템이 사이버보안의 목적에 효과적으로 부합하는지 여부를 판단하는 방법이다. 사이버보안성 평가는 시스템의 사이버보안에 대한 신뢰 수준을 측정하고, 관리적 기술적 운영 측면에서의 사이버보안 척도가 요구된 바와 같이 이행되는지를 확인하는 데 필요하다. 최근 원전 계측제어시스템은 디지털 기술의 적용으로 인해 사이버보안에 관한 기술적 및 관리적 대책이 수립되도록 요구되고 있으나, 동 시스템의 사이버보안성 평가 방법론을 포함한 전반적인 사이버보안 프로그램이 마련되어 있지 않은 실정이다. 본 논문은 원전 계측제어 시스템에 적합한 정성적 사이버보안성 평가 방법론을 제시한다. 제안되는 방법론은 원전 계측제어 시스템의 사이버보안에 대한 강점과 취약점을 평가함으로써 원전 계측제어 시스템의 사용자에게 도움이 될 수 있다. 또한, 이 방법론은 원전 계측제어 시스템의 개발자, 감사자 및 규제자가 사이버보안의 관리적, 운영적 및 기술적 통제 항목을 검토하는 지표로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

수소 압축 개질공정의 정성적 위험성 평가 (Qualitative Risk Assessment of Hydrogen Compression Reforming Process)

  • 신단비;서두현;김태훈;이광원;이동민;김현기;홍성철
    • 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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    • 제33권1호
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    • pp.61-66
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    • 2022
  • In order to introduce the hydrogen economy and increase supply, research in the field of hydrogen production is being actively conducted. Among the hydrogen production methods, the method of steam reforming from natural gas and producing it currently accounts for about 50% of the global hydrogen production. In the method of steam reforming process, hydrogen can be produced by adding a reformer to an existing natural gas supply pipe. Because of these advantages, it is evaluated as a realistic production method at present in Korea, where the city gas supply chain is well established. But there is concern in that it is highly likely to be installed in downtown areas and residential spaces. In this study, the risk of the process of steam reforming to produce hydrogen was reviewed.

계절별 저수지 유입량의 확률예측 (Probabilistic Forecasting of Seasonal Inflow to Reservoir)

  • 강재원
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제22권8호
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    • pp.965-977
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    • 2013
  • Reliable long-term streamflow forecasting is invaluable for water resource planning and management which allocates water supply according to the demand of water users. It is necessary to get probabilistic forecasts to establish risk-based reservoir operation policies. Probabilistic forecasts may be useful for the users who assess and manage risks according to decision-making responding forecasting results. Probabilistic forecasting of seasonal inflow to Andong dam is performed and assessed using selected predictors from sea surface temperature and 500 hPa geopotential height data. Categorical probability forecast by Piechota's method and logistic regression analysis, and probability forecast by conditional probability density function are used to forecast seasonal inflow. Kernel density function is used in categorical probability forecast by Piechota's method and probability forecast by conditional probability density function. The results of categorical probability forecasts are assessed by Brier skill score. The assessment reveals that the categorical probability forecasts are better than the reference forecasts. The results of forecasts using conditional probability density function are assessed by qualitative approach and transformed categorical probability forecasts. The assessment of the forecasts which are transformed to categorical probability forecasts shows that the results of the forecasts by conditional probability density function are much better than those of the forecasts by Piechota's method and logistic regression analysis except for winter season data.

A Study of Software Hazard Analysis for Safety Critical Function in Military Aircraft

  • Oh, Hung-Jae;Hong, Jin-Pyo
    • 전기전자학회논문지
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.145-152
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    • 2012
  • This paper is the Software Hazard Analysis (SWHA) which will study the managerial process and the technical methode and techniques inherent in the performance of software safety task within the Military Aircraft System Safety program. This SWHA identifies potential hazardous effects on the software intensive systems and provides a comprehensive and qualitative assessment of the software safety. The purpose of this paper is to identify safety critical functions of software in Military A/C. The identified software hazards associated with the design or function will be evaluated for risks and operational constraint to further improve the software design requirement, analysis and testing efforts for safety critical software. This common SWHA, the first time analysis in KOREA, was review all avionics OFP(Operational Flight Program), and focus only on software segments which are safety critical. This paper provides a important understanding between the customer and developer as to how the software safety for the Military A/C will be accomplished. It will also provide the current best solution which may as one consider the necessary step in establishing a credible and cost-effective software safety program.

초등학생 대상의 국내 구강건강관리 프로그램에 대한 체계적 문헌고찰 (A systematic review of domestic oral health care programs for elementary school children)

  • 여안나;이수영
    • 한국치위생학회지
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    • 제20권3호
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    • pp.257-268
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    • 2020
  • Objectives: This purpose of this study was to examine the trends in interventional research and analyze the contents and results of intervention through a systematic literature review of the domestic research literature, suggesting the effect of an oral care program on elementary school students. Methods: A total of 262 articles were retrieved initially, and the duplicate articles were then removed, excluded after screening titles, abstracts, and full-text articles. Finally, a total of 16 papers were used in the review. Results: The study included 9 articles with the nonequivalent control group pretest-posttest design and 7 with the one-group pretest-posttest design. All articles were of non-randomized studies. The most common index of the interventional effect was dental plaque. Further, oral health behaviors and knowledge, perception, self-efficacy, and DMFT index were common indices. In the quality assessment, in the "blinding of outcome assessment" among six items of ROBANS, 12 studies showed a high risk of bias. Conclusions: In order to develop an interventional oral health care program for elementary school students and evaluate the effectiveness, a strict research design and qualitative improvement of research reports are required, and continuous research should be conducted to develop a systematic protocol.

The Belt and Road Initiative in Lebanon: A Promising Initiative in a Complex Society

  • AL SHAHER, Shaher;ZREIK, Mohamad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.151-158
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    • 2022
  • The study aims to investigate Lebanese-Chinese relations within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative. Lebanon formally joined the effort in 2017; this paper emphasizes Lebanon's geostrategic importance. The paper presents an assessment of the investment risks in Lebanon, which is considered an economically unstable country with a volatile security situation, with many internal and external political hurdles. The paper refers to the obstacles and challenges that the Chinese investor may face in Lebanese society. The study employs qualitative descriptive analysis to address the status of Chinese investment in Lebanon and the consequences of this partnership; the paper examines previous research related to the Belt and Road Initiative and the Lebanese political, security, and economic situation literature. Due to the deteriorating security situation, external intervention, and the economic crisis, the results reveal that Lebanon is not a top investment priority for China, which is a big impediment to China entering into economic cooperation with Lebanon. The findings of this study suggest that the Lebanese government should adopt an anti-corruption policy to build confidence for the Chinese investor, reduce unnecessary public spending, and hold a national dialogue to build confidence among the Lebanese parties.