• Title/Summary/Keyword: Proportional hazards models

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Metabolic Risk Profile and Cancer in Korean Men and Women

  • Ko, Seulki;Yoon, Seok-Jun;Kim, Dongwoo;Kim, A-Rim;Kim, Eun-Jung;Seo, Hye-Young
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 2016
  • Objectives: Metabolic syndrome is a cluster of risk factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease. Associations between metabolic syndrome and several types of cancer have recently been documented. Methods: We analyzed the sample cohort data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service from 2002, with a follow-up period extending to 2013. The cohort data included 99 565 individuals who participated in the health examination program and whose data were therefore present in the cohort database. The metabolic risk profile of each participant was assessed based on obesity, high serum glucose and total cholesterol levels, and high blood pressure. The occurrence of cancer was identified using Korean National Health Insurance claims data. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age group, smoking status, alcohol intake, and regular exercise. Results: A total of 5937 cases of cancer occurred during a mean follow-up period of 10.4 years. In men with a high-risk metabolic profile, the risk of colon cancer was elevated (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.71). In women, a high-risk metabolic profile was associated with a significantly increased risk of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (HR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.24 to 3.42). Non-significantly increased risks were observed in men for pharynx, larynx, rectum, and kidney cancer, and in women for colon, liver, breast, and ovarian cancer. Conclusions: The findings of this study support the previously suggested association between metabolic syndrome and the risk of several cancers. A high-risk metabolic profile may be an important risk factor for colon cancer in Korean men and gallbladder and biliary tract cancer in Korean women.

Weight Loss as a Nonpharmacologic Strategy for Erosive Esophagitis: A 5-Year Follow-up Study

  • Bang, Ki Bae;Park, Jung Ho
    • Gut and Liver
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.633-640
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    • 2018
  • Background/Aims: Obesity is a risk factor for gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), with several studies demonstrating positive associations between body mass index (BMI) and GERD symptoms. However, little is known about the effect of BMI changes on erosive esophagitis (EE). In this study, we investigated whether BMI reduction could resolve EE. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed to assess the natural course of EE according to changes in BMI. Participants undergoing health check-ups from 2006 to 2012 were enrolled, and 1,126 subjects with EE were included. The degree of esophagitis was measured by upper endoscopy and serially checked over a 5-year follow-up. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate the association between BMI reduction and EE resolution. Results: Substantial weight loss is associated with EE resolution. The adjusted odds ratio for EE resolution was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09 to 1.92) among participants with a decrease in BMI compared to those with no decrease in BMI. The EE resolution rate was related to the degree of BMI reduction. The effect of weight loss on EE resolution was higher among subjects who lost more weight. Compared with subjects with no decrease in BMI, the hazard ratios for EE resolution were 1.09 (95% CI, 0.89 to 1.35), 1.31 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.72) and 2.12 (95% CI, 1.44 to 3.12) in subjects with BMI reductions of ${\leq}1$, 1-2, and >$2kg/m^2$, respectively. Conclusions: EE resolution is associated with a decrease in BMI, and weight loss is potentially an effective GERD treatment.

Prognostic Value of Restaging F-18 Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography to Predict 3-Year Post-Recurrence Survival in Patients with Recurrent Gastric Cancer after Curative Resection

  • Sung Hoon Kim;Bong-Il Song;Hae Won Kim;Kyoung Sook Won;Young-Gil Son;Seung Wan Ryu
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.829-837
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    • 2020
  • Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of the maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) measured while restaging with F-18 fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) to predict the 3-year post-recurrence survival (PRS) in patients with recurrent gastric cancer after curative surgical resection. Materials and Methods: In total, 47 patients with recurrent gastric cancer after curative resection who underwent restaging with 18F-FDG PET/CT were included. For the semiquantitative analysis, SUVmax was measured over the visually discernable 18F-FDG-avid recurrent lesions. Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to predict the 3-year PRS. Differences in 3-year PRS were assessed with the Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results: Thirty-nine of the 47 patients (83%) expired within 3 years after recurrence in the median follow-up period of 30.3 months. In the multivariate analysis, SUVmax (p = 0.012), weight loss (p = 0.025), and neutrophil count (p = 0.006) were significant prognostic factors for 3-year PRS. The Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated significantly poor 3-year PRS in patients with SUVmax > 5.1 than in those with SUVmax ≤ 5.1 (3-year PRS rate, 3.5% vs. 38.9%, p < 0.001). Conclusion: High SUVmax on restaging with 18F-FDG PET/CT is a poor prognostic factor for 3-year PRS. It may strengthen the role of 18F-FDG PET/CT in further stratifying the prognosis of recurrent gastric cancer.

Colorectal Cancer Treatment and Survival: the Experience of Major Public Hospitals in South Australia over three Decades

  • Roder, David;Karapetis, Christos S;Wattchow, David;Moore, James;Singhal, Nimit;Joshi, Rohit;Keefe, Dorothy;Fusco, Kellie;Powell, Kate;Eckert, Marion;Price, Timothy J
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.2431-2440
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    • 2015
  • Background: Registry data from four major public hospitals indicate trends in clinical care and survival from colorectal cancer over three decades, from 1980 to 2010. Materials and Methods: Kaplan-Meier productlimit estimates and Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate disease-specific survival and multiple logistic regression analyses to explore first-round treatment trends. Results: Five-year survivals increased from 48% for 1980-1986 to 63% for 2005-2010 diagnoses. Survival increases applied to each ACPS stage (Australian Clinico-Pathological Stage), and particularly stage C (an increase from 38% to 68%). Risk of death from colorectal cancer halved (hazards ratio: 0.50 (0.45, 0.56)) over the study period after adjusting for age, sex, stage, differentiation, primary sub-site, health administrative region, and measures of socioeconomic status and geographic remoteness. Decreases in stage were not observed. Survivals did not vary by sex or place of residence, suggesting reasonable equity in service access and outcomes. Of staged cases, 91% were treated surgically with lower surgical rates for older ages and more advanced stage. Proportions of surgical cases having adjuvant therapy during primary courses of treatment increased for all stages and were highest for stage C (an increase from 5% in 1980-1986 to 63% for 2005-2010). Radiotherapy was more common for rectal than colonic cases. Proportions of rectal cases receiving radiotherapy increased, particularly for stage C where the increase was from 8% in 1980-1986 to 60% in 2005-2010. The percentage of stage C colorectal cases less than 70 years of age having systemic therapy as part of their first treatment round increased from 3% in 1980-1986 to 81% by 1995-2010. Based on survey data on uptake of adjuvant therapy among those offered this care, it is likely that all these younger patients were offered systemic treatment. Conclusions: We conclude that pronounced increases in survivals from colorectal cancer have occurred at major public hospitals in South Australia due to increases in stage-specific survivals. Use of adjuvant therapies has increased and the patterns of change accord with clinical guideline recommendations. Reasons for sub-optimal use of radiotherapy for rectal cases warrant further investigation, including the potential for limited rural access to impede uptake of treatments at metropolitan-based radiotherapy centres.

Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Treatment and Survival: the Experience of Major Public Hospitals in South Australia Over Three Decades

  • Roder, David;Karapetis, Christos S;Wattchow, David;Moore, James;Singhal, Nimit;Joshi, Rohit;Keefe, Dorothy;Fusco, Kellie;Buranyi-Trevarton, Dianne;Sharplin, Greg;Price, Timothy J
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.14
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    • pp.5923-5931
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    • 2015
  • Background: Registry data from four major public hospitals indicate trends over three decades from 1980 to 2010 in treatment and survival from colorectal cancer with distant metastases at diagnosis (TNM stage IV). Materials and Methods: Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimates and Cox proportional hazards models for investigating disease-specific survival and multiple logistic regression analyses for indicating first-round treatment trends. Results: Two-year survivals increased from 10% for 1980-84 to 35% for 2005-10 diagnoses. Corresponding increases in five-year survivals were from 3% to 16%. Time-to-event risk of colorectal cancer death approximately halved (hazards ratio: 0.48 (0.40, 0.59) after adjusting for demographic factors, tumour differentiation, and primary sub-site. Survivals were not found to differ by place of residence, suggesting reasonable equity in service provision. About 74% of cases were treated surgically and this proportion increased over time. Proportions having systemic therapy and/or radiotherapy increased from 12% in 1980-84 to 61% for 2005-10. Radiotherapy was more common for rectal than colonic cases (39% vs 7% in 2005-10). Of the cases diagnosed in 2005-10 when less than 70 years of age, the percentage having radiotherapy and/or systemic therapy was 79% for colorectal, 74% for colon and 86% for rectum (&RS)) cancers. Corresponding proportions having: systemic therapies were 75%, 71% and 81% respectively; radiotherapy were 24%, 10% and 46% respectively; and surgery were 75%, 78% and 71% respectively. Based on survey data on uptake of offered therapies, it is likely that of these younger cases, 85% would have been offered systemic treatment and among rectum (&RS) cases, about 63% would have been offered radiotherapy. Conclusions: Pronounced increases in survivals from metastatic colorectal cancer have occurred, in keeping with improved systemic therapies and surgical interventions. Use of radiotherapy and/or systemic therapy has increased markedly and patterns of change accord with clinical guideline recommendations.

Behavioural and Metabolic Risk Factors for Mortality from Colon and Rectum Cancer: Analysis of Data from the Asia-Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration

  • Morrison, David Stewart;Parr, Christine Louise;Lam, Tai Hing;Ueshima, Hirotsugu;Kim, Hyeon Chang;Jee, Sun Ha;Murakami, Yoshitaka;Giles, Graham;Fang, Xianghua;Barzi, Federica;Batty, George David;Huxley, Rachel Rita;Woodward, Mark
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.1083-1087
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    • 2013
  • Background: Colorectal cancer has several modifiable behavioural risk factors but their relationship to the risk of colon and rectum cancer separately and between countries with high and low incidence is not clear. Methods: Data from participants in the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration (APCSC) were used to estimate mortality from colon (International Classification of Diseases, revision 9 (ICD-9) 153, ICD-10 C18) and rectum (ICD-9 154, ICD-10 C19-20) cancers. Data on age, body mass index (BMI), serum cholesterol, height, smoking, physical activity, alcohol and diabetes mellitus were entered into Cox proportional hazards models. Results: 600,427 adults contributed 4,281,239 person-years follow-up. The mean ages (SD) for Asian and Australia/New Zealand cohorts were 44.0 (9.5) and 53.4 (14.5) years, respectively. 455 colon and 158 rectum cancer deaths were observed. Increasing age, BMI and attained adult height were associated with increased hazards of death from colorectal cancer, and physical activity was associated with a reduced hazard. After multiple adjustment, any physical activity was associated with a 28% lower hazard of colon cancer mortality (HR 0.72, 95%CI 0.53-0.96) and lower rectum cancer mortality (HR 0.75, 95%CI 0.45-1.27). A 2cm increase in height increased colon and all colorectal cancer mortality by 7% and 6% respectively. Conclusions: Physical inactivity and greater BMI are modifiable risk factors for colon cancer in both Western and Asian populations. Further efforts are needed to promote physical activity and reduce obesity while biological research is needed to understand the mechanisms by which they act to cause cancer mortality.

The Relationship between the Cognitive Impairment and Mortality in the Rural Elderly (농촌지역 노인들의 인지기능 장애와 사망과의 관련성)

  • Sun, Byeong-Hwan;Park, Kyeong-Soo;Na, Baeg-Ju;Park, Yo-Seop;Nam, Hae-Sung;Shin, Jun-Ho;Sohn, Seok-Joon;Rhee, Jung-Ae
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.30 no.3 s.58
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    • pp.630-642
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    • 1997
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the mortality risk associated with cognitive impairment among the rural elderly. The subjective of study was 558 of 'A Study on the Depression and Cognitive Impairment in the Rural Elderly' of Jung Ae Rhee and Hyang Gyun Jung's study(1993). Cognitive impairment and other social and health factors were assessed in 558 elderly rural community residents. For this study, a Korean version of the Mini-Mental State Examination(MMSEK) was used as a global indicator of cognitive functioning. And mortality risk factors for each cognitive impairment subgroup were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. At baseline 22.6% of the sample were mildly impaired and 14.2% were severely impaired. As the age increased, the cognitive function was more impaired. Sexual difference was existed in the cognitive function level. Also the variables such as smoking habits, physical disorders had the significant relationship with cognitive function impairment. Across a 3-year observation period the mortality rate was 8.5% for the cognitively unimpaired, 11.1% for the mildly impaired, and 16.5% for the severly impaired respendents. And the survival probability was .92 for the cognitively unimpaired, .90 for the mildly impaired, and .86 for the severly impaired respondents. Compared to survival curve for the cognitively unimpaired group, each survival curve for the mildly and the severely impaired group was not significantly different. When adjustments models were not made for the effects of other health and social covariates, each hazard ratio of death of mildly and severely impaired persons was not significantly different as compared with the cognitively unimpaired. But, as MMSEK score increased, significantly hazard ratio of death decreased. Employing Cox univariate proportional hazards model, statistically other significant variables were age, monthly income, smoking habits, physical disorders. Also when adjustments were made for the effects of other health and social covariates, there was no difference in hazard ratio of death between those with severe or mild impairment and unimpaired persons. And as MMSEK score increased, significantly hazard ratio of death did not decrease. Employing Cox multivariate proportional hazards model, statistically other significant variables were age, monthly income, physical disorders. Employing Cox multivariate proportional hazards model by sex, at men and women statistically significant variable was only age. For both men and women, also cognitive impairment was not a significant risk factor. Other investigators have found that cognitive impairment is a significant predictor of mortality. But we didn't find that it is a significant predictor of mortality. Even though the conclusions of our study were not related to cognitive impairment and mortality, early detection of impaired cognition and attention to associated health problems could improve the quality of life of these older adults and perhaps extend their survival.

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Cox Model Improvement Using Residual Blocks in Neural Networks: A Study on the Predictive Model of Cervical Cancer Mortality (신경망 내 잔여 블록을 활용한 콕스 모델 개선: 자궁경부암 사망률 예측모형 연구)

  • Nang Kyeong Lee;Joo Young Kim;Ji Soo Tak;Hyeong Rok Lee;Hyun Ji Jeon;Jee Myung Yang;Seung Won Lee
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.260-268
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    • 2024
  • Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide, and more than 604,000 new cases were reported in 2020 alone, resulting in approximately 341,831 deaths. The Cox regression model is a major model widely adopted in cancer research, but considering the existence of nonlinear associations, it faces limitations due to linear assumptions. To address this problem, this paper proposes ResSurvNet, a new model that improves the accuracy of cervical cancer mortality prediction using ResNet's residual learning framework. This model showed accuracy that outperforms the DNN, CPH, CoxLasso, Cox Gradient Boost, and RSF models compared in this study. As this model showed accuracy that outperformed the DNN, CPH, CoxLasso, Cox Gradient Boost, and RSF models compared in this study, this excellent predictive performance demonstrates great value in early diagnosis and treatment strategy establishment in the management of cervical cancer patients and represents significant progress in the field of survival analysis.

Breast Screening and Breast Cancer Survival in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Women of Australia

  • Roder, David;Webster, Fleur;Zorbas, Helen;Sinclair, Sue
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.147-155
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    • 2012
  • Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people comprise about 2.5% of the Australian population. Cancer registry data indicate that their breast cancer survivals are lower than for other women but the completeness and accuracy of Indigenous descriptors on registries are uncertain. We followed women receiving mammography screening in BreastScreen to determine differences in screening experiences and survivals from breast cancer by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander status, as recorded by BreastScreen. This status is self-reported and used in BreastScreen accreditation, and is considered to be more accurate. The study included breast cancers diagnosed during the period of screening and after leaving the screening program. Design: Least square regression models were used to compare screening experiences and outcomes adjusted for age, geographic remoteness, socio-economic disadvantage, screening period and round during 1996-2005. Survival of breast cancer patients from all causes and from breast cancer specifically was compared for the 1991-2006 diagnostic period using linked cancer-registry data. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to adjust for socio-demographic differences, screening period, and where available, tumour size, nodal status and proximity of diagnosis to time of screen. Results: After adjustment for socio-demographic differences and screening period, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women participated less frequently than other women in screening and re-screening although this difference appeared to be diminishing; were less likely to attend post-screening assessment within the recommended 28 days if recalled for assessment; had an elevated ductal carcinoma in situ but not invasive cancer detection rate; had larger breast cancers; and were more likely than other women to be treated by mastectomy than complete local excision. Linked cancer registry data indicated that five-year year survivals of breast cancer cases from all causes of death were 81% for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women, compared with 90% for other women, and that the former had larger breast cancers that were more likely to have nodal spread at diagnosis. After adjusting for socio-demographic factors, tumour size, nodal spread and time from last screen to diagnosis, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women had approximately twice the risk of death from breast cancer as other women. Conclusions: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women have less favourable screening experiences and those diagnosed with breast cancer (either during the screening period or after leaving the screening program) have lower survivals that persist after adjustment for socio-demographic differences, tumour size and nodal status.

Exploitation of the Dose/Time-Response Relationship for a New Measure of DNA Repari in the Single-Cell Gel Electrophoresis (Comet) Assay

  • Kim, Byung-Soo;Edler, Lutz;Park, Jin-Joo;Fournier, Dietrich Von;Haase, Wulf;Sautter-Bihl, Mare-Luise;Hagmuller, Egbert;Gotzes, Florian;Thielmann, Heinz Walter
    • Toxicological Research
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.89-100
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    • 2004
  • The comet assay (also called the single-cell gel electrophoresis assay) has been widely used for detecting DNA damage and repair in individual cells. Since the conventional methods of evaluating comet assay data using frequency statistics are unsatisfactory we developed a new quantitative measure of DNA damage/repair that is based on all information residing in the dose/time-response curves of a comet experiment. Blood samples were taken from 25 breast cancer patients before undergoing radiotherapy. The comet assay was performed under alkaline conditions using isolated lymphocytes. Tail DNA, tail length, tail moment and tail inertia of the comet were measured for each patient at four doses of $\gamma$-rays (0, 2, 4 and 8 Gy) and at four time points after irradiation (0, 10, 20 and 30 min) using 100 cells each. The resulting three-dimensional dose-time response surface was modeled by multiple regression, and the second derivative, termed 2D, on dose and time was determined. A software module was programmed in SAS/AF to compute 2D values. We applied the new method successfully to data obtained from cancer patients to be assessed for their radiation sensitivity. We computed the 2D values for the four damage measures, i.e., tail moment, tail length, tail DNA and tail inertia, and examined the pairwise correlation coefficients of 2D both on the log scale and the unlogged scale. 2D values based on tail moment and tail DNA showed a high correlation and, therefore, these two damage measures can be used interchangeably as far as DNA repair is concerned. 2D values based on tail inertia have a correlation profile different from the other 2D values which may reflect different facets of DNA damage/repair. Using the dose-time response surface, other statistical models, e.g., the proportional hazards model, become applicable for data analysis. The 2D approach can be applied to all DNA repair measures, Le., tail moment, tail length, tail DNA and tail inertia, and appears to be superior to conventional evaluation methods as it integrates all data of the dose/time-response curves of a comet assay.