• Title/Summary/Keyword: Project Duration Estimation

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Probability-based Critical Path Estimation for PERT Networks of Repetitive Activities (반복작업 PERT 네트워크의 확률기반 주공정 산정기법)

  • Yi, Kyoo-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.595-602
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    • 2018
  • Network-based scheduling methods can be classified into CPM method and PERT method. In the network scheduling chart, critical path can be estimated by performing the forward calculation and the backward calculation though the paths in the network chart. In PERT method, however, it is unreasonable to simply estimate the critical path by adding the sum of the activity durations in a specific path, since it does not incorporate probabilistic concept of PERT. The critical path of a PERT network can change according to the target period and deviation, and in some cases, the expected time of the critical path may not be the path with longest expected time. Based on this concept, this study proposes a technique to derive the most-likely critical path by comparing the sum of estimated time with the target time. It also proposes a method of systematically deriving all alternate paths for a network of repetitive activities. Case studies demonstrated that the most-likely critical path is not a fixed path and may vary according to the target period and standard deviation. It is expected that the proposed method of project duration forecasting will be useful in construction environment with varying target date situations.

An Estimation of Residents' Willingness-to-pay for Urban Farming in the New Development Areas: Focused on Bundang and Dongtan (신도시 내 도시농업 도입에 대한 거주자 지불의사금액 추정: 분당, 동탄신도시를 중심으로)

  • Rhim, Joo-Ho;Lee, Kyoung-Hwan;Yoon, In-Sook;Yoon, Eun-Joo
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.315-322
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    • 2012
  • Recently multifaceted advantages of urban agriculture are emerging in civil society and related policy arena such as food safety, environment, and social welfare. This study tried an estimation of residents' willingness-to-pay for urban farming to examine feasibility of using part of urban green infrastructure as urban farm (e.g. allotment garden). A survey targeting Bundang and Dontan new-town residents was carried out and willingness-to-pay for urban farm rental was estimated by contingent valuation method (CVM). The estimated rent was cross-checked with the rental cost and travel cost paid by hobby farm users in the outskirt of metropolitan area. The result of this study showed that the potential demand for urban farming is ample if urban farms or allotment gardens are planned within new development areas. That is, 72.6 percent of new-town residents questioned had intention of using allotment garden within urban parks and green spaces. Estimated willingness-to-pay for renting a plot, $16.5m^2$ of urban farm, was about 236,000 won(KRW), which is higher than rent for a plot of allotment garden which is located out of city. Variables which were statistically significant to estimated willingness-to-pay for urban farming were sex, age, and occupation of respondents, among other explanatory socio-demographic variables, while expected frequency and duration of visit to urban farm were insignificant.

Analysis of Economic Effectiveness for Flood Control of Dam (댐의 홍수조절에 의한 경제적 효과분석)

  • Choi, Seung-An;Yi, Choong-Sung;Shim, Myung-Pil;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.383-396
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    • 2007
  • The studies on efficiency of flood control reservoir has been introduced into four categories including direct flood control contribution by reservoir, flow-duration change and environmental-ecological change in downstream of dam and flood damage estimation of flood plain. In spite of all the previous approaches, the quantification of the effect of reservoir on the flood control in planning stage is quite complex due to lack of a standard for quantifying feasibility of project. In this study, we develop a methodology that can clearly and accurately quantify the flood damage reduction together with the existing flood level reduction at downstream. The proposed approach uses three appraisal standards of flood control: 'potential safety', 'relative risk' and 'absolute risk' according to the risk by stage. The developed methodology was applied to the Namhan river basin with the storm event of July, 2006. The result shows the damage reduction of 4,189 billion won was estimated. The economic benefits for the flood control effect by dam will greatly contribute to the public understanding of the importance and the effect of the flood control by dam.