• 제목/요약/키워드: Probable Maximum Flood

검색결과 55건 처리시간 0.023초

농업용 소규모 저수지의 붕괴에 따른 하류부 피해예측 모델링 (Modeling Downstream Flood Damage Prediction Followed by Dam-Break of Small Agricultural Reservoir)

  • 박종윤;조형경;정인균;정관수;이주헌;강부식;윤창진;김성준
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제52권6호
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    • pp.63-73
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    • 2010
  • This study is to develop a downstream flood damage prediction model for efficient confrontation in case of extreme and flash flood by future probable small agricultural dam break situation. For a Changri reservoir (0.419 million $m^3$) located in Yongin city of Gyeonggi province, a dam break scenario was prepared. With the probable maximum flood (PMF) condition calculated from the probable maximum precipitation (PMP), the flood condition by dam break was generated by using the HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrologic Modeling System) model. The flood propagation to the 1.12 km section of Hwagok downstream was simulated using HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System) model. The flood damaged areas were generated by overtopping from the levees and the boundaries were extracted for flood damage prediction, and the degree of flood damage was evaluated using IDEM (Inundation Damage Estimation Method) by modifying MD-FDA (Multi-Dimensional Flood Damage Analysis) and regression analysis simple method. The result of flood analysis by dam-break was predicted to occurred flood depth of 0.4m in interior floodplain by overtopping under PMF scenario, and maximum flood depth was predicted up to 1.1 m. Moreover, for the downstream of the Changri reservoir, the total amount of the maximum flood damage by dam-break was calculated nearly 1.2 billion won by IDEM.

월 PMP 개념의 적용에 관한 연구 (A Study of Adoption on the Concept of Monthly Probable Maximum Precipitation)

  • 최한규;김남원;최용묵;윤희섭
    • 산업기술연구
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    • 제21권B호
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    • pp.241-248
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    • 2001
  • Normally at a flood season the operation of the dam depends on a short range weather forecast that makes many difficulties of the management at a dry season. It is needed to study the pattern of the long period rainfall. The concept of PMP(Probable Maximum Precipitation) was used for designing dam. From the concept, this study is applied the concept of monthly probable maximum precipitation for operating dam. It can be possible to let us know the appropriateness of a limiting water level at a rainy season. For the operation of dam at a dry season this study can predict roughly the flood season's pattern of precipitation by month or period, therfore the prediction of precipitation can rise efficient operation of a dam.

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위천유역(渭川流域)의 가능최대홍수량(可能最大洪水量) 특성(特性) (The Characteristics of Probable Maximum Flood on Wi Stream Watersheds)

  • 최경숙;서승덕
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • 제16권
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 1998
  • 낙동강 지류중 하나인 위천유역 및 동성유역권의 수공구조물 설계시 설계홍수량 결정을 위한 기본자료를 제공하고자 시간분포의 유형과 기저유량의 변화에 따른 가능최대홍수량의 양상을 분석하였다. 먼저 수문기상학적인 방법으로 PMP를 추정하고, Blocking방법의 central, advanced 그리고 delayed type를 각각 이용하여 시간 분포시킨 호우를 Clark방법을 이용하여 PMF를 산정한 결과 다음과 같은 결론을 얻었다. 1. PMP시간분포형에 따라서 첨두 PMF는 기저유량에 따라 advanced일 때 3145.3~3348.3cms, central일 때 3774.6~3977.7cms, delayed일 때 3814.6~4017.3cms로 나타났다. 여기서 강우의 시간분포가 advanced type이고 기저유량이 Minimum일 때 central과 delayed에 비하여 첨두PMF가 670cms정도 작게 나타남을 알수 있었다. 따라서 최대 첨두PMF와 최소 첨두PMF는 각각 delayed와 advanced일 때의 4017.3cms와 3145.3cms이며, 결과에 의한 평균 PMF는 3653.6cms로서 이 결과가 위천유역의 설계홍수량으로 타당하다고 사료된다. 2. 평균PMF와 가지야마에 의한 결과치와는 가지야마 값보다 1.7배 큰값으로 나타났고 이는 1,000년에서 10,000년 빈도사이의 홍수량으로 추정된다.

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Low Outliers를 고려한 홍수빈도분석에 관한 연구 (A study on the Flood Frequency Analyzed in Consideration of Low Outliers.)

  • 이순혁;홍성표;박명근
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제30권4호
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    • pp.62-70
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    • 1988
  • This study was conducted to solve the problems for the unsuitable parameters and the uncertainty of design flood can be appeared by low outliers were inclined to the lower part from the trend of the balance of the data. Derivation of reasonable design flood was attempted finally by modification of low outliers with analysis of flood frequency by means of Log Pearson Type Ill distribution. Three subwatersheds were selected as studying basins with the annual maximum series including low outliers along Geum River basin. The results through this study were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1. Log Pearson Type In distribution was confirmed as a reasonable one by X$^2$ goodness of fit test at Gong Ju, Gyu Am, og Cheon watershed along Geum River basin. 2. Probable flood flows for each watershed were derivated by flood frequency curve with outliers. 3. Weighted skew coefficient for each watershed was calculated for the evaluation of freq- uency factor which is needed for the modification of low outlier. 4. It was confirrned that adjusted frequency curve has a lower tendency than that of deletion of low outlier in common at all watersheds. 5. Final probable flood flows were derivated by modification with evaluation of modified basic statistics for three watersheds. 6. In comparison with a frequency curve with modification and one with outlier, The former has a higher probable flood flow within three years of return periods than that of the latter, and vice versa over three years of return periods.

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소양강 다목적댐의 수문학적 안정성 검토 (Hydrological Stability Analysis of the Existing Soyanggang Multi-Purpose Dam)

  • 고석구;신용노
    • 물과 미래
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    • 제28권3호
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    • pp.187-195
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    • 1995
  • 본 연구의 목적은 20년 전에 건설 완료된 우리나라 최대 다목적댐인 소양강 다목적댐의 치수능력을 재검토하여 그 대안을 제시하는데 있다. 최악의 기상조건을 고려하여 수문 기상학적 방법으로 산정한 소양강 다목적댐유역의 72시간 지속 가능 최대 강수량(PMP, probable maximum precipitation)은 760.0mm 이며 재산정된 가능 최대 홍수량(PMF, probable maximum flood)은 18,100$m^3$/s이다. 이는 댐 계획 당시 1,000년 빈도 홍수량의 최대치 13,500$m^3$/s 보다 1.34배 크게 나타났다. 가능 최대 홍수량을 설계 홍수량으로 채택할 경우의 4개 대안; 1) 하수 제한수위를 낮추는 안, 2) 비상 여수로를 추가하는 안, 3)기존 댐을 증고시키는 안, 4) 상류에 홍수조절용댐을 건설하는 안 등을 검토한 결과 경제성과 치수 관리 능력 효율면에서 소양강 다목적댐의 수문학적 안정성을 도모할 수 있는 최적의 개선 방안은 비상 여수로를 추가하는 안으로 판단된다. 따라서 현 여수로에 부가하여 비상 여수로를 추가하는 방안이 보다 더 구체적으로 검토되어야 할 것이다.

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SSP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 농업용 저수지 홍수조절능력 분석 (Analysis of Flood Control Capacity of Agricultural Reservoir Based on SSP Climate Change Scenario)

  • 김지혜;곽지혜;황순호;전상민;이성학;이재남;강문성
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제63권5호
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    • pp.49-62
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    • 2021
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate the flood control capacity of the agricultural reservoir based on state-of-the-art climate change scenario - SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). 18 agricultural reservoirs were selected as the study sites, and future rainfall data based on SSP scenario provided by CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6) was applied to analyze the impact of climate change. The frequency analysis module, the rainfall-runoff module, the reservoir operation module, and their linkage system were built and applied to simulate probable rainfall, maximum inflow, maximum outflow, and maximum water level of the reservoirs. And the maximum values were compared with the design values, such as design flood of reservoirs, design flood of direct downstream, and top of dam elevation, respectively. According to whether or not the maximum values exceed each design value, cases were divided into eight categories; I-O-H, I-O, I-H, I, O-H, O, H, X. Probable rainfall (200-yr frequency, 12-h duration) for observed data (1973~2020) was a maximum of 445.2 mm and increased to 619.1~1,359.7 mm in the future (2011~2100). For the present, 61.1% of the reservoirs corresponded to I-O, which means the reservoirs have sufficient capacity to discharge large inflow; however, there is a risk of overflowing downstream due to excessive outflow. For the future, six reservoirs (Idong, Baekgok, Yedang, Tapjung, Naju, Jangsung) were changed from I-O to I-O-H, which means inflow increases beyond the discharge capacity due to climate change, and there is a risk of collapse due to dam overflow.

Comparison of flood inundation simulation between one- and two-dimensional numerical models for an emergency action plan of agricultural reservoirs

  • Kim, Jae Young;Jung, Sung Ho;Yeon, Min Ho;Lee, Gi Ha;Lee, Dae Eop
    • 농업과학연구
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    • 제48권3호
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    • pp.515-526
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    • 2021
  • The frequency of typhoons and torrential rainfalls has increased due to climate change, and the concurrent risk of breakage of dams and reservoirs has increased due to structural aging. To cope with the risk of dam breakage, a more accurate emergency action plan (EAP) must be established, and more advanced technology must be developed for the prediction of flooding. Hence, the present study proposes a method for establishing a more effective EAP by performing flood and inundation analyses using one- and two-dimensional models. The probable maximum flood (PMF) under the condition of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) was calculated for the target area, namely the Gyeong-cheon reservoir watershed. The breakage scenario of the Gyeong-cheon reservoir was then built up, and breakage simulations were conducted using the dam-break flood forecasting (DAMBRK) model. The results of the outflow analysis at the main locations were used as the basis for the one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) flood inundation analyses using the watershed modeling system (WMS) and the FLUvial Modeling ENgine (FLUMEN), respectively. The maximum inundation area between the Daehari-cheon confluence and the Naeseong-cheon location was compared for each model. The 1D flood inundation analysis gave an area of 21.3 km2, and the 2D flood inundation analysis gave an area of 21.9 km2. Although these results indicate an insignificant difference of 0.6 km2 in the inundation area between the two models, it should be noted that one of the main locations (namely, the Yonggung-myeon Administrative and Welfare Center) was not inundated in the 1D (WMS) model but inundated in the 2D (FLUMEN) model.

하천유역의 설계 홍수량 결정을 위한 P.M.P.의 산정 및 적용 (PMP Estimation and Its Application for the Design Flood Determination in River Basin)

  • 이순탁;박정규
    • 물과 미래
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.75-86
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    • 1986
  • 본연구는 하천유역에 있어서, 대규모 수공구조물의 설계홍수량 결정을 위한 최대가능강우량(PMP)분석 및 적용에 그 목적이 있다. PMP는 수문기상학적 방법,통계학적 방법, 포락선 방법으로 산정하였으며, 최대가능홍수량(PMF)은 합성단위도법과 Chow 방법으로 산정하였다. 각 방법에 의한 PMP를 비교해 본 결과, 통계학적 방법, 수문기상학적 방법, 포락선 방법의 크기 순으로 나타나고 있음을 알 수 있었으며, 산정된 PMP를 기왕의 최대강우량과 비교해 본 결과 수문기상학적 방법이 기상학적 제요소를 고려한 방법이 가장 타당한 방법이라고 사료된다. 산정된 PMP 및 PMF를 확률 수문량과 비교해 본 결과 수문기상학적 방법 및 통계학적 방법은 재현기간 1000년 확률 수문량을 다소 상회하는 것으로 나타났으며, 포락선 방법은 재현기간 200∼500 년 확률 수문량에 접근하고 있음을 알 수 있었다.대규모 수공 구조물의 설계에 있어서 위험도를 고려할 경우에는 PMP로부터 PMF를 산정하는 것이 타당할 것이다.

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Creager 기법을 이용한 지속시간별 가능최대홍수량 산정 (Estimation of Probable Maximum Flood by Duration using Creager Method)

  • 강부식;류승엽
    • 한국방재학회 논문집
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    • 제11권1호
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    • pp.77-84
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    • 2011
  • 각종 수공구조물 설계를 위한 첨두홍수량을 추정시 합리식(rational formula) 및 가지야마(Kajiyama)공식 등을 사용하고 있으나, 이러한 방법들을 이용하여 가능최대홍수량(PMF)을 산정하기 위해서는 가능최대강수량(PMP)의 추정이 선행되어야 하므로 미계측지역에서는 적용에 상당한 제약이 따른다. Creager 등이 1945년에 제시한 Creager방법은 비홍수량산정기법의 일종으로 유역면적과 PMF사이의 비선형성을 직접 수식화하여 제공하므로 PMP값이 주어지지 않은 상황에서 PMF산정이 가능하며, 주로 중규모이상 다목적댐의 PMF 산정시 사용되어 왔는데, 국내에는 아직 적용된 사례가 많지 않다. 본 연구에서는 PMP도를 이용한 강우-유출 모델로 산정된 상수전용댐과 다목적댐의 PMF를 이용하여 유역규모와 강우지속시간에 따라 보편적으로 적용할 수 있는 Creager 공식의 매개변수와 Creager 계수값의 결정범위 및 기준 등을 산정하여 국내 유역에 적용가능한 방법을 제시하였다.

Flood Frequency Analysis by the Box-Cox Transformation

  • 이순혁;조성갑;박명곤
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제32권E호
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    • pp.20-32
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    • 1990
  • Abstract This study was conducted to pursue the normalization of frequency distribution by making an approach to the coefficient of skewness to nearly zero through the Box-Cox transformation, to get probable flood flows can be calculated by means of the transformation equation which has been derivated by Box-Cox transformation in the annual maximum series of the applied watersheds. It has been concluded that Box-Cox transfromation is proved to be more efficient than logarithmic, square root and SMEMAX transformation which is based on the trigonometric solution of a right triangle whose three verteces repesent the smallest, median and largest observed values of a population in making the coefficient of skewness nearer to zero. Consequently it is shown that probable flood flows according to the return period based on Box-Cox transformation are closer to the observed data as compared to other methods including SMEMAX transformation and fitted probability distributions such as the three parameter lognormal and the type I extremal distribution for the applied watersheds.

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