• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability theory

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Estimation for the Variation of the Concentration of Greenhouse Gases with Modified Shannon Entropy (변형된 샤논 엔트로피식을 이용한 온실가스 농도변화량 예측)

  • Kim, Sang-Mok;Lee, Do-Haeng;Choi, Eol;Koh, Mi-Sol;Yang, Jae-Kyu
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.22 no.11
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    • pp.1473-1479
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    • 2013
  • Entropy is a measure of disorder or uncertainty. This terminology is qualitatively used in the understanding of its correlation to pollution in the environmental area. In this research, three different entropies were defined and characterized in order to quantify the qualitative entropy previously used in the environmental science. We are dealing with newly defined distinct entropies $E_1$, $E_2$, and $E_3$ originated from Shannon entropy in the information theory, reflecting concentration of three major green house gases $CO_2$, $N_2O$ and $CH_4$ represented as the probability variables. First, $E_1$ is to evaluate the total amount of entropy from concentration difference of each green house gas with respect to three periods, due to industrial revolution, post-industrial revolution, and information revolution, respectively. Next, $E_2$ is to evaluate the entropy reflecting the increasing of the logarithm base along with the accumulated time unit. Lastly, $E_3$ is to evaluate the entropy with a fixed logarithm base by 2 depending on the time. Analytical results are as follows. $E_1$ shows the degree of prediction reliability with respect to variation of green house gases. As $E_1$ increased, the concentration variation becomes stabilized, so that it follows from linear correlation. $E_2$ is a valid indicator for the mutual comparison of those green house gases. Although $E_3$ locally varies within specific periods, it eventually follows a logarithmic curve like a similar pattern observed in thermodynamic entropy.

PROPERTIES OF OPEN CLUSTERS CONTAINING BLUE STRAGGLERS

  • Lee, Hyun-Uk;Chang, Heon-Young
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2017
  • The presence of blue stragglers pose challenges to standard stellar evolution theory, in the sense that explaining their presence demands a complex interplay between stellar evolution and cluster dynamics. In the meantime, mass transfer in binary systems and stellar collisions are widely studied as a blue straggler formation channel. We explore properties of the Galactic open clusters where blue stragglers are found, in attempting to estimate the relative importance of these two favored processes, by comparing them with those resulting from open clusters in which blue stragglers are absent as of now. Unlike previous studies which require a sophisticated process in understanding the implication of the results, this approach is straightforward and has resulted in a supplementary supporting evidence for the current view on the blue straggler formation mechanism. Our main findings are as follows: (1) Open clusters in which blue stragglers are present have a broader distribution with respect to the Z-axis pointing towards the North Galactic Pole than those in which blue stragglers are absent. The probability that two distributions with respect to the Z-axis are drawn from the same distribution is 0.2%. (2) Average values of $log_10(t)$ of the clusters with blue stragglers and those without blue stragglers are $8.58{\pm}0.232$ and $7.52{\pm}0.285$, respectively. (3) The clusters with blue stragglers tend to be relatively redder than the others, and are distributed broader in colors. (4) The clusters with blue stragglers are likely brighter than those without blue stragglers. (5) Finally, blue stragglers seem to form in condensed clusters rather than simply dense clusters. Hence, we conclude that mass transfer in binaries seems to be a relatively important physical mechanism of the generation of blue stragglers in open clusters, provided they are sufficiently old.

Accuracy Comparisons between Traditional Adjustment and Least Square Method (최소제곱법을 적용한 지적도근점측량 계산의 정확도 분석)

  • Lee, Jong-Min;Jung, Wan-Suk;Lee, Sa-Hyung
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.117-130
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    • 2015
  • A least squares method for adjusting the horizontal network satisfies the conditions which is minimizing the sum of the squares of errors based on probability theory. This research compared accuracy of 3rd cadastral control points adjusted by traditional and least square method with respect to the result of Network-RTK. Test results showed the least square method more evenly distribute closure error than traditional method. Mean errors of least square and traditional adjusting method are 2.7cm, 2.2cm respectively. In addition, blunder in angle observations can be detected by comparing position errors which calculated by forward and backward initial coordinates. However, distance blunder cannot offer specific observation line occurred mistake because distance error propagates several observation lines which have similar directions.

Optimization of the construction scheme of the cable-strut tensile structure based on error sensitivity analysis

  • Chen, Lian-meng;Hu, Dong;Deng, Hua;Cui, Yu-hong;Zhou, Yi-yi
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.1031-1043
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    • 2016
  • Optimization of the construction scheme of the cable-strut tensile structure based on error sensitivity analysis is studied in this paper. First, the element length was extracted as a fundamental variable, and the relationship between element length change and element internal force was established. By setting all pre-stresses in active cables to zero, the equation between the pre-stress deviation in the passive cables and the element length error was obtained to analyze and evaluate the error effects under different construction schemes. Afterwards, based on the probability statistics theory, the mathematical model of element length error is set up. The statistical features of the pre-stress deviation were achieved. Finally, a cable-strut tensile structure model with a diameter of 5.0 m was fabricated. The element length errors are simulated by adjusting the element length, and each member in one symmetrical unit was elongated by 3 mm to explore the error sensitivity of each type of element. The numerical analysis of error sensitivity was also carried out by the FEA model in ANSYS software, where the element length change was simulated by implementing appropriate temperature changes. The theoretical analysis and experimental results both indicated that different elements had different error sensitivities. Likewise, different construction schemes had different construction precisions, and the optimal construction scheme should be chosen for the real construction projects to achieve lower error effects, lower cost and greater convenience.

Development of the Shortest Route Search Algorithm Using Fuzzy Theory (퍼지 추론을 이용한 최단 경로 탐색 알고리즘의 개발)

  • Jung, Yung-Keun;Park, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.8 s.86
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    • pp.171-179
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents the algorithm using fuzzy inference that preestimates each link speed changed by different kinds of road situations. The elements we are considered are time zone, rainfall probability information and lane control information. This paper is consists of three parts. First of all we set up the fuzzy variables, and preestimate link speed changed by various road situations. For this process, we build the membership functions for each fuzzy variable and establish the fuzzy inference relations to find how fuzzy variables influence on link speed. Second, using backtracking method, we search the shortest route influenced by link speed changed by fuzzy inference. Third, we apply this algorithm to hypothetical network and find the shortest path. As a result, it is shown that this algorithm choose appropriate roundabout path according to the changing road situations.

A Fuzzy Neural Network Model Solving the Underutilization Problem (Underutilization 문제를 해결한 퍼지 신경회로망 모델)

  • 김용수;함창현;백용선
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.354-358
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    • 2001
  • This paper presents a fuzzy neural network model which solves the underutilization problem. This fuzzy neural network has both stability and flexibility because it uses the control structure similar to AHT(Adaptive Resonance Theory)-l neural network. And this fuzzy nenral network does not need to initialize weights and is less sensitive to noise than ART-l neural network is. The learning rule of this fuzzy neural network is the modified and fuzzified version of Kohonen learning rule and is based on the fuzzification of leaky competitive leaming and the fuzzification of conditional probability. The similarity measure of vigilance test, which is performed after selecting a winner among output neurons, is the relative distance. This relative distance considers Euclidean distance and the relative location between a datum and the prototypes of clusters. To compare the performance of the proposed fuzzy neural network with that of Kohonen Self-Organizing Feature Map the IRIS data and Gaussian-distributed data are used.

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Adolescents' Use of Harmful Environment and Correlates of Risk Health Behaviors (청소년의 학교주변 유해환경 이용과 건강위험형태 분석)

  • 이호진;이명선
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.129-140
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    • 2001
  • Harmful environment around school area have been increased with socio-economic development in Korea. Those entertainment facilities have caused a negative effect on the learning environment in many schools. As a result of increased entertainment harmful facilities in school area, the numbers of deviant behaviors such as drinking, smoking, substance abuse and sexual activity among junior high school students have been significantly increased. Given this situation, the aim of this study was to describe the distribution of the facilities; to access applied(experience) of the facilities according to students demographic variables; and to identify the relationship between use of the facilities and students risk health behaviors such as smoking, drinking, substance abuse and sexual activity. The field theory was used to study the relationship between the use of the facilities and risk health behaviors among students. A self-administered questionnaire survey was conducted in Korea. 2,114 junior and senior high school students(middle and high school students) were recruited by the method of proportional stratified random sampling from June to July 2000. Results indicated that: 1) The rates of using game centers, PC rooms, Song rooms and comic rooms were 78.3%, 75.6%, 71.6%, and 34.3% respectively. 2) High school students visited the entertainment facilities significantly more than middle school students(p〈0.001). 3) The rates of using facilities near schools were significantly associated with parents job(p〈0.05). 4) The rates of drinking, smoking, drug abuse, and sexual activity were 21.6%, 11.9%, 4.3% and 1.6% respectively. 5) Risk health behaviors such as smoking(p〈0.001) and drinking(p〈0.001), amount of smoking and drinking(p〈0.001) and sexual activity(p〈0.05) were associated with the experience of using the facilities. Those who had drinking experience were more likely to go the facilities than those without drinking experience. Also, those who were smoker had higher probability of going using the facilities than non-smokers.

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A Linear Analysis of the Relation between Rainfall and Runoff for Peak Flow based on Geomorphologic IUH (지형학적(地形學的) 순간단위도(瞬間單位圖)에 의한 첨두유량(尖頭流量)의 강우(降雨)-유출(流出) 선형해석(線形解析))

  • Lee, Jung Sik;Kim, Jae Han;Lee, Won Hwan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 1987
  • The schemes synthesizing the instantaneous unit hydrograph(IUH) are presented by using the geomorphologic parameters of a basin. To this end, the channels in the network are numbered according to the Strahler scheme, and the mathematical formulation corresponding to a dynamic probability theory for deriving the geomorphologic IUH(GUH) is refered to the existing techniques adopted by Rodriguez-Iturbe and Valdes. Also, the mean runoff velocity is applied for expressing a dynamic state of flow. The applicability of the GUH to the real drainage basins is tested by using the data observed in a few basins with areas of the order of 9.2, 20, 33.63, and $109.73km^2$ in Korea. The test is carried out by checking the discrepancies between the observed and simulated values for the peak discharge and its time of occurrence which are the most important parameters of an IUH by varing the mean runoff velocity and the inputs. As a result, good agreement is found between them, and it is shown that the variability in peak discharge of hydrograph depends on the mean runoff velocity more than the constant loss rate.

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The System Dynamics Model for Assessment of Organizational and Human Factor in Nuclear Power Plant (시스템 다이나믹스를 활용한 원전 조직 및 인적인자 평가)

  • 안남성;곽상만;유재국
    • Proceedings of the Korean System Dynamics Society
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    • 2002.02a
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    • pp.19-40
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    • 2002
  • The intent of this study is to develop system dynamics model for assessment of organizational and human factors in nuclear power plant which can contribute to secure the nuclear safety. Previous studies are classified into two major approaches. One is engineering approach such as ergonomics and probability safety assessment(PSA). The other is social science approach such like sociology, organization theory and psychology. Both have contributed to find organization and human factors and to present guideline to lessen human error in NPP. But, since these methodologies assume that relationship among factors is independent they don't explain the interactions among factors or variables in NPP. To overcome these limits, we have developed system dynamics model which can show cause and effect among factors and quantify organizational and human factors. The model we developed is composed of 16 functions of job process in nuclear power, and shows interactions among various factors which affects employees' productivity and job quality. Handling variables such like degree of leadership, adjustment of number of employee, and workload in each department, users can simulate various situations in nuclear power plant in the organization side. Through simulation, user can get insight to improve safety in plants and to find managerial tools in the organization and human side. Analyzing pattern of variables, users can get knowledge of their organization structure, and understand stands of other departments or employees. Ultimately they can build learning organization to secure optimal safety in nuclear power plant.

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Reduction of a Numerical Grid Dependency in High-pressure Diesel Injection Simulation Using the Lagrangian-Eulerian CFD Method (Lagrangian-Eulerian 기법을 이용한 고압 디젤 분무 시뮬레이션의 수치해석격자 의존성 저감에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sa-Yop;Oh, Yun-Jung;Park, Sung-Wook;Lee, Chang-Sik
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.39-45
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    • 2012
  • In the standard CFD code, Lagrangian-Eulerian method is very popular to simulate the liquid spray penetrating into gaseous phase. Though this method can give a simple solution and low computational cost, it have been reported that the Lagrangian spray models have numerical grid dependency, resulting in serious numerical errors. Many researches have shown the grid dependency arise from two sources. The first is due to unaccurate prediction of the droplet-gas relative velocity, and the second is that the probability of binary droplet collision is dependent on the grid resolution. In order to solve the grid dependency problem, the improved spray models are implemented in the KIVA-3V code in this study. For reducing the errors in predicting the relative velocity, the momentum gain from the gaseous phase to liquid particles were resolved according to the gas-jet theory. In addition, the advanced algorithm of the droplet collision modeling which surmounts the grid dependency problem was applied. Then, in order to validate the improved spray model, the computation is compared to the experimental results. By simultaneously regarding the momentum coupling and the droplet collision modeling, successful reduction of the numerical grid dependency could be accomplished in the simulation of the high-pressure injection diesel spray.