• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.6
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• pp.39-44
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• 2012

Water supply capacity and operational capability in agricultural reservoirs are expressed differently in the limited storage due to seasonal and local variation of precipitation. Since agricultural water supply and demand basically assumes the uncertainty of hydrological phenomena, it is necessary to improve probabilistic approach for potential risk assessment of water supply capacity in reservoir for enhanced operational storage management. Here, it was introduced the irrigation vulnerability characteristic curves to represent the water supply capacity corresponding to probability distribution of the water demand from the paddy field and water supply in agricultural reservoir. Irrigation vulnerability probability was formulated using reliability analysis method based on water supply and demand probability distribution. The lower duration of irrigation vulnerability probability defined as the time period requiring intensive water management, and it will be considered to assessment tools as a risk mitigated water supply planning in decision making with a limited reservoir storage.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.8 no.6 s.40
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• pp.31-43
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• 2004

Seismic risk assessment of bridge is presented using fragility curves which represent the probability of damage of a structure virsus the peak ground acceleration. In theseismic fragility analysis, the structural damage is defined using the rotational ductility at the base of the bridge pier, which is obtained through nonlinear dynamic analysis for various input earthquakes. For the assessment of seismic risk of bridge, peak ground accelerations are obatined for various return periods from the seismic hazard map of Korea, which enables to calculate the probability density function of peak ground acceleration. Combining the probability density function of peak ground acceleration and the seismic fragility analysis, seismic risk assessment is performed. In this study, seismic fragility analysis is developed as a function of not the surface motion which the bridge actually suffers, but the rock outcrop motion which the aseismic design code is defined on, so that further analysis for the seismic hazard assessment may become available. Besides, the effects of the friction pot bearings and the friction pendulum bearings on the seismic fragility and risk analysis are examined. Lastly, three regions in Korea are considered and compared in the seismic risk assessment.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.287-294
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• 2017

Recently the construction project is becoming large-sized, complicated, and modernize. This has increased the uncertainty of construction risk. Therefore, studies should be followed regarding scientifically identifying the risk factors, quantifying the frequency and severity of risk factors in order to develop a model that can quantitatively evaluate and manage the risk for response the increased risk in construction. To address the problem, this study analyze the probability distribution of risk causes, the probability of occurrence and frequency of the specific risk level through Monte Carlo simulation method based on the accident data caused at construction sites. In the end, this study derives quantitative analysis by analyzing the amount of risk and probability distributions of accident causes. The results of this study will be a basis for future quantitative risk management models and risk management research.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.1815-1829
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• 2014

Recently frequent collapse of old fill dams has taken place, which increases social awareness in the safety of the infrastructure. Fill dams in Korea has been incautiously regarded as safe once the fill dam is considered to have a full capacity to retain a conservative design flood determined by government authorities. However, developed foreign countries has been managing their fill dams by introducing systematic risk assessment techniques over a long period of time. In this study, the system response probabilities of the deteriorated old fill dams in Korea were systematically evaluated and analyzed by using the internal erosion toolbox based on the event tree analysis technique. The probability of the existence of flaw and the magnitude of the hydraulic gradient through a potential crack can significantly influence the geotechnical system response probability. The results of this study show that the probability of the existence of flaw and the magnitude of the hydraulic gradient through a potential crack can significantly influence the geotechnical system response probability and the risk of the deteriorated fill dam can be quantitatively assessed.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2008.06a
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• pp.1499-1504
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• 2008

This study shows risk-based evaluation results of casualty accidents for passengers, railway staffs and MOP(Member of public) on the national railway in South Korea. To evaluate risk of these accidents, the hazardous events and the hazardous factors were identified by the review of the accident history and engineering interpretation of the accident behavior. A probability evaluation model for each hazardous event which was based on the accident appearance scenario was developed by using the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique. The probability for each hazardous event was evaluated from the historical data and structured expert judgment. In addition, the severity assessment model utilized by the Event Tree Analysis (ETA) technique was composed of the accident progress scenarios. And the severity for the hazardous events was estimated using fatalities and weighted injuries. The risk assessment model developed can be effectively utilized in defining the risk reduction measures in connection with the option analysis.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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• v.26 no.2_2
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• pp.315-325
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• 2023

Recently, various dynamic risk analysis methods have been suggested for estimating the risk index by predicting the possibility of accidents and damage. It is necessary to maintain and support the safety system for responding to accidents by continuously updating the probability of accidents and the results of accidents, which are quantitative standards of ship risk. In this study, when a LNG leakage that may occur in the LN G Fuel Gas Supply System (FGSS) room during LN G bunkering operation, a reliability physical model was prepared by the change in monitoring data as physical parameters to estimate the accident probability. The scenario in which LNG leakage occur were configured with FT (Fault Tree), and the coefficient of the covariate model and Weibull distribution was estimated based on the monitoring data. The possibility of an LNG leakage, which is the top event of FT, was confirmed by changes in time and monitoring data. A method for estimating the LNG leakage based on the reliability physical analysis is proposed, which supports fast decision-making by identifying the potential LNG leakage at the accident.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.1365-1375
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• 2009

The types and quantities of Hazmat and Hazmat transport are gradually increasing, keeping pace with industrialization and urbanization. There are currently more than 1,000 types of Hazmat,, and new types are added every year. At present the safety management for Hazmat transport only considers reducing accident probability, but even when an accident involving Hazmat-carrying vehicles occurs, that is not regarded as a Hazmat-related accident if the Hazmats do not leak out from the containers carrying them. Based on this principle, in turn., the methods to reduce risk (Risk=Probability$\times$Consequence) have to be developed by incorporating accident probability and consequence. By using Geographic Information System (GIS), a technical method was invented and is automatically able to evaluate the consequence by different types of Hazmat. Thus this study analyzed the degree of risk on the links classified by the Hazmat transport pathways. In order to mitigate the degree of risk, a method of 7-step risk management in transporting Hazmat on railway industries was suggested. The 7-step risk management is definded as the following: 1st step: buliding up GIS DB, 2nd step: calculating accident probability on each link, 3rd step: calculating consequence by Hazmat types, 4th step: determination of risk, 5th step: analysis of alternative plans for mitigating the risk, 6th: measure of effectiveness against each alternative, and 7th step: action plans to be weak probability and consequence by the range recommended from ALARP. In conclusion., those 7 steps are recommended as a standardization method in this study.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.201-211
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• 2009

The types and quantities of Hazmat and Hazmat transportation are gradually increasing, keeping pace with industrialization and urbanization. At present the safety management for Hazmat transportation only considers reducing accident probability, but even when an accident involving Hazmat-carrying vehicles occurs, that is not regarded as a Hazmat-related accident if the Hazmats do not leak out from the containers carrying them. Thus the methods to reduce risk (Risk=Probability$\times$Consequence) have to be developed by incorporating accident probability and consequence. By using Geographic Information System (GIS), a technical method is invented and is automatically able to evaluate the consequence by different types of Hazmat. Thus this study analyzed the degree of risk on the links classified by the Hazmat transport pathways. In order to mitigate the degree of risk, a method of 7-step risk management on Hazmat transportation in railway industries can be suggested. (1st step: building up GIS DB, 2nd step: calculating accident probability on each link, 3rd step: calculating consequence by Hazmat types, 4th step: determination of risk, 5th step: analysis of alternative plans for mitigating the risk, 6th: measure of effectiveness against each alternative, and 7th step: action plans to be weak probability and consequence by the range recommended from ALARP). In conclusion, those 7 steps are used as a standardization method of optimum transportation routing. And to increase the efficiency of optimum transportation routing, optional route can be revise by verification.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.20 no.7_spc
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• pp.485-494
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• 2016

The risk-based assessment, also called time-based assessment of structure is usually performed to provide seismic risk evaluation of a target structure for its entire life-cycle, e.g. 50 years. The prediction of collapse probability is the estimator in the risk-based assessment. While the risk-based assessment is the key in the performance-based earthquake engineering, its application is very limited because this evaluation method is very expensive in terms of simulation and computational efforts. So the evaluation database for many archetype structures usually serve as representative of the specific system. However, there is no such an assessment performed for building stocks in Korea. Consequently, the performance objective of current building code, KBC is not clear at least in a quantitative way. This shortcoming gives an unresolved issue to insurance industry, socio-economic impact, seismic safety policy in national and local governments. In this study, we evaluate the comprehensive seismic performance of an low-rise residential buildings with discontinuous structural walls, so called piloti-type structure which is commonly found in low-rise domestic building stocks. The collapse probability is obtained using the risk integral of a conditioned collapse capacity function and regression of current hazard curve. Based on this approach it is expected to provide a robust tool to seismic safety policy as well as seismic risk analysis such as Probable Maximum Loss (PML) commonly used in the insurance industry.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.5 no.5
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• pp.607-624
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• 2013

In this study the seismic risk assessments of six- and twelve-story staggered wall system structures with three different structural variations were performed. The performances of staggered wall structures with added columns along the central corridor and the structures with their first story walls replaced by beams and columns were compared with those of the regular staggered wall structures. To this end incremental dynamic analyses were carried out using twenty two pairs of earthquake records to obtain the failure probabilities for various intensity of seismic load. The seismic risk for each damage state was computed based on the fragility analysis results and the probability of occurrence of earthquake ground motions. According to the analysis results, it was observed that the structures with added columns along the central corridor showed lowest probability of failure and seismic risk. The structures with their first story walls replaced by beams and columns showed lowest margin for safety.