• 보건행정학회지
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• 제32권3호
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• pp.317-322
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• 2022

Background: Limited access to medical services causes problems in patients' health and life. Also, hospital closures cause concentration towards general hospitals, which leads to worsening National Health Insurance finance. Therefore, hospital closure is an important topic to be analyzed. Methods: This paper analyzed the factors that affect hospital closures using survival analysis with the data of 970 hospitals opened between 2010 and 2019 in Korea. The number of medical personnel, hospital rooms, sickbeds, and medical departments were used as explanatory variables. Results: The number of medical personnel and hospital rooms increased the survival probability while the number of sickbeds and medical departments decrease the survival probability. Conclusion: The results suggest that hospitals have economies of scale and diseconomies of scope in management.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.487-500
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• 2014

A new method to calculate the transmittable prevalence of an epidemic disease is proposed based on a back-calculation formula. We calculated the probabilities of reactivation and of parasitemia as well as transmittable prevalence (the number of persons with parasitemia in the incubation period) of malaria in South Korea using incidence of 12 years(2001-2012). For this computation, a new probability function of transmittable condition is obtained. The probability of reactivation is estimated by the least squares method for the back-calculated longterm incubation period. The probability of parasitemia is calculated by a convolution of the survival function of the short-term incubation function and the probability of reactivation. Transmittable prevalence is computed by a convolution of the infected numbers and the probabilities of transmission. Confidence intervals are calculated using the parametric bootstrap method. The method proposed is applicable to other epidemic diseases in other countries where incidence and a long incubation period are available. We found the estimated transmittable prevalence in South Korea was concentrated in the summer with 276 cases on a peak at the $31^{st}$ week and with about a 60% reduction in the peak from the naive prevalence. The statistics of transmittable prevalence can be used for malaria prevention programs and to select blood transfusion donors.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제33권4호
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• pp.255-261
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• 2009

Prediction of the stability for ships is very complex in reality. In this paper, risk based approach is applied to predict the probability of capsize for a certified ship, which is effected by the forces of sea especially the wave loading Safety assessment and risk analysis process are also applied for the probabilistic prediction of stability for ships. The probability of shipsencountering different waves at sea is calculated by the existed statistics data and risk based models. Finally, ship capsizing probability is calculated according to single degree of freedom(SDF) rolling differential equation and basin erosion theory of nonlinear dynamics. Calculation results show that the survival probabilities of ship excited by the forces of the seas, especially in the beam seas status, can be predicted by the risk based method.

• 한국전기전자재료학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전기전자재료학회 2004년도 추계학술대회 논문집 Vol.17
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• pp.356-362
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• 2004

Using multi wrapped copper by polyimide film for HTS transformer, the breakdown and V-t characteristics of two type models for turn-to-turn, one is point contact model, the other is surface contact model, were investigated under ac and impulse voltage at 77 K. A material that is Polyimide film (Kapton) 0.025 mm thickness is used for multi wrapping of the electrode. Statistical analysis of the results using Weibull distribution to examine the wrapping number effects on V-t characteristics under at voltage as well as breakdown voltage under ac and impulse voltage in $LN_2$ was carried. Also, survival analysis was performed according to the Kaplan-Meier method. The breakdown voltages for surface contact model are lower than that of the point contact model, because the contact area of surface contact model is wider than that of point contact model. At the same time, the shape parameter of the point contact model is a little bit larger than the of the surface contact model. The time to breakdown tn is decreased as the applied voltage is increased, and the lifetime indices slightly are increased as the number of layers is increased. According to the increasing applied voltage and decreasing wrapping number, the survival probability is increased.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.605-616
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• 2000

Three primary interests frequently raised by mortgage companies are introduced and the corresponding statistical approaches for the default probability in mortgage companies are examined. Statistical models considered in this paper are time series, logistic regression, decision tree, neural network, and discrete time models. Usage of the models is illustrated using an artificially modified data set and the corresponding models are evaluated in appropriate manners.

• 천문학회보
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• 제6권
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• pp.12.3-12.3
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• 1981

• Genomics & Informatics
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.41.1-41.12
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• 2019

Survival analysis mainly deals with the time to event, including death, onset of disease, and bankruptcy. The common characteristic of survival analysis is that it contains "censored" data, in which the time to event cannot be completely observed, but instead represents the lower bound of the time to event. Only the occurrence of either time to event or censoring time is observed. Many traditional statistical methods have been effectively used for analyzing survival data with censored observations. However, with the development of high-throughput technologies for producing "omics" data, more advanced statistical methods, such as regularization, should be required to construct the predictive survival model with high-dimensional genomic data. Furthermore, machine learning approaches have been adapted for survival analysis, to fit nonlinear and complex interaction effects between predictors, and achieve more accurate prediction of individual survival probability. Presently, since most clinicians and medical researchers can easily assess statistical programs for analyzing survival data, a review article is helpful for understanding statistical methods used in survival analysis. We review traditional survival methods and regularization methods, with various penalty functions, for the analysis of high-dimensional genomics, and describe machine learning techniques that have been adapted to survival analysis.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.159-163
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• 2016

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in the world, and the fourth in Iran in both genders. The aim of this study was to find predictive factors for CRC survival. Materials and Methods: Medical records of 570 patients referred to the radiotherapy oncology department of Shiraz Namazi hospital from 2005 to 2010 were retrospectively analysed. Data were collected by reviewing medical records, and by telephone interviews with patients. Survival analysis was performed using the Cox's regression model with survival probability estimated with Kaplan-Meier curve. The log-rank test was used to compare survival between strata. Data was analyzed with Stata 12. Results: The five-year survival rate and the mean survival time after cancer diagnosis were 58.5% and $67{\pm}4months$. On multivariate analysis, age of diagnosis, disease stage and primary tumor site, lymphovascular invasion and type of treatment (in colon cancer) were significant factors for survival. Conclusions: Age of diagnosis and type of treatment (adjuvant therapy in patients with colon cancer) were two modifiable factors related to survival of CRC patients. Therefore earlier diagnosis might help increase survival.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.45-50
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• 1986

1984년 RTOG에서 두경부 편평세포암의 방사선치료시, 원발병소의 완전관해 가능성을 예측할 수 있는 Multivariate Modelling System을 제시하였다. 저자들은 1971년 1월부터 1983년 12월까지 조직병리학적으로 확진된 비인강암으로 연계대학교 의과대학 연세암센타, 치료방사선과에 내원하여 근치적 방사선 치료를 받은 81예를 대상으로, 그들이 제시한 system에 의해 계산된 PPC(Probability of Primary Clearance : 원발병소 완전관해 가능성)와 생존율과의 관계를 후향적으로 분석 고찰하였다. 전례를 대상으로 한 5년 생존율은 $36\%$, 중앙생존기간은 39개월이었다. 편의상, PPC에 따라 3군으로 구분하였고, 각군에 따른 생존율은 Group 1 (PPC가 $81\%$이상인 27예)은 $66\%$(중앙생존기간: 72개월 이상), Group 2(PPC가 $71\~80\%$의 20예)는 $27\%$(31개월) 및 Group 3(PPC가 $70\%$ 이하의 29예)의 $4\%$(12개월)순이었다. 그러고 각 Group간의 PPC와 생존율은 통계학적으로 유의한 차이를 보였다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.257-269
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• 2012

최근 글로벌 금융위기와 중소기업들의 연이은 도산으로 인해 국내 중소기업들의 구조조정에 대한 논의가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 이에 본 논문에서는 신용보증기금에 등록된 중소기업 자료에 대하여 업종별 생존율 동향을 비교분석하였다. 이때 생존율의 차이는 로그순위 검정과 윌콕슨의 검정통계량을 사용하여 분석하였다. 또한 재무변수들을 이용하여 중소기업의 업종별 콕스 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 그 결과, 도소매업과 서비스업이 경공업과 중공업, 건설업에 비하여 생존율이 높았으며, 건설업의 경우 생존율이 가장 낮음을 알 수 있었다. 또한, 업종별로 유의한 재무변수를 살펴보면, 건설업은 자기자본비율, 유동비율이 커질수록 부도율이 감소하는 반면에 차입금의존도가 커질수록 부도율이 증가하였다. 경공업은 자기자본비율, 총자산 순이익률이 커질수록, 도소매업은 자기자본비율, 유동비율이 커질수록 부도율이 감소하였다. 중공업은 자기자본비율, 총자산 순이익률, 유동비율이 커질수록 부도율이 감소하였지만 결합지표가 커질수록 부도율이 증가하였다. 마지막으로, 서비스업은 유동비율이 커질수록 부도율이 감소하였다.