• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of occurrence

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Wave Analysis and Spectrum Estimation for the Optimal Design of the Wave Energy Converter in the Hupo Coastal Sea (파력발전장치 설계를 위한후포 연안의 파랑 분석 및 스펙트럼 추정)

  • Kweon, Hyuck-Min;Cho, Hongyeon;Jeong, Weon-Mu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.147-153
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    • 2013
  • There exist various types of the WEC (Wave Energy Converter), and among them, the point absorber is the most popularly investigated type. However, it is difficult to find examples of systematically measured data analysis for the design of the point absorber type of power buoy in the world. The study investigates the wave load acting on the point absorber type resonance power buoy wave energy extraction system proposed by Kweon et al. (2010). This study analyzes the time series spectra with respect to the three-year wave data (2002.05.01~2005.03.29) measured using the pressure type wave gage at the seaside of north breakwater of Hupo harbor located in the east coast of the Korean peninsula. From the analysis results, it could be deduced that monthly wave period and wave height variations were apparent and that monthly wave powers were unevenly distributed annually. The average wave steepness of the usual wave was 0.01, lower than that of the wind wave range of 0.02-0.04. The mode of the average wave period has the value of 5.31 sec, while mode of the wave height of the applicable period has the value of 0.29 m. The occurrence probability of the peak period is a bi-modal type, with a mode value between 4.47 sec and 6.78 sec. The design wave period can be selected from the above four values of 0.01, 5.31, 4.47, 6.78. About 95% of measured wave heights are below 1 m. Through this study, it was found that a resonance power buoy system is necessary in coastal areas with low wave energy and that the optimal design for overcoming the uneven monthly distribution of wave power is a major task in the development of a WEF (Wave Energy Farm). Finding it impossible to express the average spectrum of the usual wave in terms of the standard spectrum equation, this study proposes a new spectrum equation with three parameters, with which basic data for the prediction of the power production using wave power buoy and the fatigue analysis of the system can be given.

Preferential Flow as Tested by Breakthrough Curves of Cl- and Cu2+ from Saturated Undisturbed Soil Core Samples under Steady Flow Conditions (포화 불교란 토양시료의 Cl- 및 Cu2+ 출현곡선에 의한 preferential flow의 검증)

  • Yoo, Sun-Ho;Han, Kyung-Hwa;Ro, Hee-Myong;Han, Gwang-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2000
  • Preferential flow has recently been the subject of increasing interest because these phenomena contribute to solute transport in soils. Commonly, preferential flow paths are associated with macropores or highly structured soils. We presented an analysis of the measured breakthrough curves (BTCs) of $Cl^-$ and $Cu^{2+}$ ions to test the occurrence of preferential flow in soils using miscible displacement technique under steady flow conditions. We also analyzed soil water retention curves and from this curves induced cumulative pore size distribution of undisturbed soils, which sampled from Ap1, B1, and C horizons of Songjeong series soils (the fine loamy, mesic family of Typic Hapludults). In this study, miscible displacement experiment on C horizon was excluded, because it is structureless sandy loam with saturated hydraulic conductivity of $5.2cmhr^{-1}$. The saturated hydraulic conductivity of Ap1 horizon was $2.0cmhr^{-1}$, which was about 7 times higher than that of B1 horizon ($0.27cm hr^{-1}$). Cumulative pore size distribution predicted that Ap1 horizon had more macropores (pore diameter larger than $49{\mu}m$, equivalent to -6 kpa of soil matric potential) than B1 horizon. The hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient from chloride BTCs was estimated as $1.3cm^2hr^{-1}$ for B1 and $34cm^2hr^{-1}$ for Ap1 horizon. However the retardation factors of B1 and Ap1 horizon were significantly different, i.e. 1 and 0.6, respectively, which means that there was distinct partition between mobile water and immobile phase in Ap1 horizon. The copper retardation effect of Ap1 horizon was less than that of B1 horizon, even though cation exchange capacity of Ap1 horizon was higher than that of B1 horizon. Thus, breakthrough curves of $Cl^-$ and $Cu^{2+}$ obviously showed the probability that preferential flow would occur in Ap1 horizon.

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Latest Supreme Court Decision on Proof of Causation in Medical Malpractice Cases - Focusing on Supreme Court decision 2022da219427 on August 31, 2023 and the Supreme Court decision 2021Do1833 on August 31, 2023 - (의료과오 사건에서 인과관계 증명에 관한 최신 대법원 판결 - 대법원 2023. 8. 31. 선고 2022다219427 판결 및 대법원 2023. 8. 31. 선고 2021도1833 판결을 중심으로 -)

  • HYEONHO MOON
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.3-36
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    • 2023
  • The main issue in medical malpractice civil litigation is medical negligence and the causal relationship between medical negligence and damages. Regarding the presumption of causality in cases where medical negligence is proven, there is a previous Supreme Court decision 93da52402 on February 10, 1995, but it is difficult to find a case that satisfies the textual requirements of the above decision, and yet, in practice, the above decision is cited. In many cases, causal relationships were assumed, and criticism was consistently raised that it was inconsistent with the text of the above judgment. In its ruling, the Supreme Court reorganized and presented a new legal principle regarding the presumption of causality when medical negligence is proven in a civil lawsuit. According to this, If the patient proves ① the existence of an act that is assessed as a medical negligence, that is, a violation of the duty of care required of an ordinary medical professional at the level of medical care practiced in the field of clinical medicine at the time of medical practice, and ② that the negligence is likely to cause damages to the patient, the burden of proving the causal relationship is alleviated by presuming a causal relationship between medical negligence and damage. Here, the probability of occurrence of damage does not need to be proven beyond doubt from a natural scientific or medical perspective, but if recognizing the causal relationship between the negligence and the damage does not comply with medical principles or if there is a vague possibility that the negligence will cause damage, causality cannot be considered proven. Meanwhile, even if a causal relationship between medical negligence and damage is presumed, the party that performed the medical treatment can overturn the presumption by proving that the patient's damage was not caused by medical negligence. Meanwhile, unlike civil cases, the standard is 'proof beyond reasonable doubt' in criminal cases, and the legal principle of presuming causality does not apply. Accordingly, in a criminal case of professional negligence manslaughter that was decided on the same day regarding the same medical accident, the case was overturned and remanded for not guilty due to lack of proof of a causal relationship between medical negligence and death. The above criminal ruling is a ruling that states that even if 'professional negligence' is recognized in a criminal case related to medical malpractice, the person should not be judged guilty if there is a lack of clear proof of 'causal relationship'.

Ecological Importance of Water Budget and Synergistic Effects of Water Stress of Plants due to Air Pollution and Soil Acidification in Korea (한국에서 수분수지의 생태적 중요성과 대기오염 및 토양 산성화로 인한 식물의 수분스트레스 증대 효과)

  • 이창석;이안나
    • The Korean Journal of Ecology
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.143-150
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    • 2003
  • Korea has plentiful precipitation but rainfall events concentrate on several months of rainy season in her weather condition. Korea, therefore, experiences drought for a given period every year. Moreover the soil has usually low water holding capacity, as it is composed coarse particles originated from the granite. Response of several oaks and the Korean red pine (Pinus densiflora) on water stress showed that water budget was significant factor determining vegetation distribution. In addition, dehydration level due to cold resistance mechanism of several evergreen plants during the winter season was closely related to their distribution in natural condition. Experimental result under water stress showed that the Korean red pine was very tolerant to desiccation but the seedlings showed high mortality during the dry season. The mortality tended to proportionate to soil moisture content of each site. A comparison between soil moisture content during June when it is severe dry season and moisture content of the culture soil when the pine seedlings reached the permanent wilting point due to water withheld proved that high mortality during the dry season was due to water deficit. Water potential of sample plants measured during the exposure experiment to the air pollutant showed a probability that water related factors would dominate the occurrence of visible damage and the tolerance level of sample plants. In both field survey and laboratory experiment, plants exposed to air pollution showed more rapid transpiration than those grown in the unpolluted condition. The result would due to injury of leaf surface by air pollutants. Aluminum (Al/sup 3+/) increased in the acid soil not only inhibits root growth but also leads to abnormal distribution of root system and thereby caused water stress. The water stresses due to air pollution and soil acidification showed a possibility that they play dominating roles in inducing forest decline additionally to the existing water deficit due to weather and soil conditions in Korea. Sludge, which can contribute to improve field capacity, as it is almost composed of organic matter, showed an effect ameliorating the retarded growth of plant in the acidified soil. The effect was not less than that of dolomite known in widely as such a soil ameliorator. Litter extract contributed also to mitigate the water stress due to toxic Al/sup 3+/. We prepared a model showing the potential interaction of multiple stresses, which can cause forest decline in Korea by synthesizing those results. Furthermore, we suggested restoration plans, which can mitigate such forest decline in terms of soil amelioration and vegetation restoration.

A study on security independent behavior in social game using expanded health belief model (건강신념모델을 확장한 소셜게임(Social Game) 보안의지행동에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Ho-Jeong;Kim, Sung-Jun;Kwon, Do-Soon
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.99-118
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    • 2016
  • With the development of Internet and popularization of smartphones over recent years, social network services are experiencing rapid growth. On top of this, smartphone gaming market is showing a rapid growth and the use of mobile social games is on the significant rise. The occurrence of game data manipulation targeting these services and personal information leakage is highlighting the importance of social gaming security. This study is intended to propose development plans effective and efficient in social game services by figuring out factors putting effects on security dependent behavior of social game users in Korea and carrying out a practical study on the casual relationship between factors influencing security dependent behavior through recognized behavioral control and attitudes for privacy infringement of these factors. To do this, proposed was a study model in which the HBM(Health Belief Model) allowing the social game user to influence security dependent behavior was expanded and applied as a major variable. To verify the study model of this study practically, a survey was conducted among university students in Seoul-based K University and S University who had experienced using social game services. According to the study findings, firstly, the perceived seriousness turned out to provide positive influence to trust. But, the perceived seriousness turned out not to put positive effects on self-efficacy. Secondly, the perceived probability turned out not to put positive effects on self-efficacy and trust. Thirdly, the perceived gain turned out to put positive effects on self-efficacy and trust. Fourthly, the perceived disorder turned out not to put positive effects on self-efficacy and trust. Fifthly, self-efficacy turned out to put positive effects on trust. But, self-efficacy turned out not to put positive effects on security dependent behavior. Sixthly, trust turned out not to put positive effects on security dependent behavior. This study is intended to make a strategic proposal so that social game users can raise awareness of their level of security perception and security willingness through this.

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Development of the National Integrated Daily Weather Index (DWI) Model to Calculate Forest Fire Danger Rating in the Spring and Fall (봄철과 가을철의 기상에 의한 전국 통합 산불발생확률 모형 개발)

  • Won, Myoungsoo;Jang, Keunchang;Yoon, Sukhee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.348-356
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    • 2018
  • Most of fires were human-caused fires in Korea, but meteorological factors are also big contributors to fire behavior and its spread. Thus, meteorological factors as well as topographical and forest factors were considered in the fire danger rating systems. This study aims to develop an advanced national integrated daily weather index(DWI) using weather data in the spring and fall to support forest fire prevention strategy in South Korea. DWI represents the meteorological characteristics, such as humidity (relative and effective), temperature and wind speed, and we integrated nine logistic regression models of the past into one national model. One national integrated model of the spring and fall is respectively $[1+{\exp}\{-(2.706+(0.088^*T_{mean})-(0.055^*Rh)-(0.023^*Eh)-(0.014^*W_{mean}))\}^{-1}]^{-1}$, $[1+{\exp}\{-(1.099+(0.117^*T_{mean})-(0.069^*Rh)-(0.182^*W_{mean}))\}^{-1}]^{-1}$ and all weather variables significantly (p<0.01) affected the probability of forest fire occurrence in the overall regions. The accuracy of the model in the spring and fall is respectively 71.7% and 86.9%. One integrated national model showed 10% higher accuracy than nine logistic regression models when it is applied weather data with 66 random sampling in forest fire event days. These findings would be necessary for the policy makers in the Republic of Korea for the prevention of forest fires.

A Study on the Application of Outlier Analysis for Fraud Detection: Focused on Transactions of Auction Exception Agricultural Products (부정 탐지를 위한 이상치 분석 활용방안 연구 : 농수산 상장예외품목 거래를 대상으로)

  • Kim, Dongsung;Kim, Kitae;Kim, Jongwoo;Park, Steve
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.93-108
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    • 2014
  • To support business decision making, interests and efforts to analyze and use transaction data in different perspectives are increasing. Such efforts are not only limited to customer management or marketing, but also used for monitoring and detecting fraud transactions. Fraud transactions are evolving into various patterns by taking advantage of information technology. To reflect the evolution of fraud transactions, there are many efforts on fraud detection methods and advanced application systems in order to improve the accuracy and ease of fraud detection. As a case of fraud detection, this study aims to provide effective fraud detection methods for auction exception agricultural products in the largest Korean agricultural wholesale market. Auction exception products policy exists to complement auction-based trades in agricultural wholesale market. That is, most trades on agricultural products are performed by auction; however, specific products are assigned as auction exception products when total volumes of products are relatively small, the number of wholesalers is small, or there are difficulties for wholesalers to purchase the products. However, auction exception products policy makes several problems on fairness and transparency of transaction, which requires help of fraud detection. In this study, to generate fraud detection rules, real huge agricultural products trade transaction data from 2008 to 2010 in the market are analyzed, which increase more than 1 million transactions and 1 billion US dollar in transaction volume. Agricultural transaction data has unique characteristics such as frequent changes in supply volumes and turbulent time-dependent changes in price. Since this was the first trial to identify fraud transactions in this domain, there was no training data set for supervised learning. So, fraud detection rules are generated using outlier detection approach. We assume that outlier transactions have more possibility of fraud transactions than normal transactions. The outlier transactions are identified to compare daily average unit price, weekly average unit price, and quarterly average unit price of product items. Also quarterly averages unit price of product items of the specific wholesalers are used to identify outlier transactions. The reliability of generated fraud detection rules are confirmed by domain experts. To determine whether a transaction is fraudulent or not, normal distribution and normalized Z-value concept are applied. That is, a unit price of a transaction is transformed to Z-value to calculate the occurrence probability when we approximate the distribution of unit prices to normal distribution. The modified Z-value of the unit price in the transaction is used rather than using the original Z-value of it. The reason is that in the case of auction exception agricultural products, Z-values are influenced by outlier fraud transactions themselves because the number of wholesalers is small. The modified Z-values are called Self-Eliminated Z-scores because they are calculated excluding the unit price of the specific transaction which is subject to check whether it is fraud transaction or not. To show the usefulness of the proposed approach, a prototype of fraud transaction detection system is developed using Delphi. The system consists of five main menus and related submenus. First functionalities of the system is to import transaction databases. Next important functions are to set up fraud detection parameters. By changing fraud detection parameters, system users can control the number of potential fraud transactions. Execution functions provide fraud detection results which are found based on fraud detection parameters. The potential fraud transactions can be viewed on screen or exported as files. The study is an initial trial to identify fraud transactions in Auction Exception Agricultural Products. There are still many remained research topics of the issue. First, the scope of analysis data was limited due to the availability of data. It is necessary to include more data on transactions, wholesalers, and producers to detect fraud transactions more accurately. Next, we need to extend the scope of fraud transaction detection to fishery products. Also there are many possibilities to apply different data mining techniques for fraud detection. For example, time series approach is a potential technique to apply the problem. Even though outlier transactions are detected based on unit prices of transactions, however it is possible to derive fraud detection rules based on transaction volumes.