• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.187-201
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• 2008

Earthquake induced hysteretic energy demand for a structure can be used as a limiting value of a certain performance level in seismic design of structures. In cases where it is larger than the hysteretic energy dissipation capacity of the structure, failure will occur. To be able to select the limiting value of hysteretic energy for a particular earthquake hazard level, it is required to define the variation of hysteretic energy in terms of probabilistic terms. This study focuses on the probabilistic evaluation of earthquake induced worst failure probability and approximate confidence intervals for inelastic single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems with a typical steel moment connection based on hysteretic energy. For this purpose, hysteretic energy demand is predicted for a set of SDOF systems subject to an ensemble of moderate and severe EQGMs, while the hysteretic energy dissipation capacity is evaluated through the previously published cyclic test data on full-scale steel beam-to-column connections. The failure probability corresponding to the worst possible case is determined based on the hysteretic energy demand and dissipation capacity. The results show that as the capacity to demand ratio increases, the failure probability decreases dramatically. If this ratio is too small, then the failure is inevitable.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.107-112
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• 2019

Failure testing is a test that verifies that the system is operating in accordance with failure response requirements. A typical failure test approaches the operating system by identifying and testing system problems caused by unexpected errors during the operational phase. In this paper, we study how to evaluate these Failure at the software development stage. Evaluate the probability of failure due to code changes through the complexity and duplication of the code, and evaluate the probability of failure due to exceptional situations with bugs and test coverage extracted from static analysis. This paper studies the possibility of failure based on the code quality of software development stage.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.295-303
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• 2009

In the present study, a reliability analysis calculating the probability of system failure has been performed using cut set and results of numerical analysis for unsteady flow in pipe. Especially, the probability of system failure has been evaluated regarding the effect of valve closure which is a really important activity in operation of piping system. In spite of small amount of demand, it was found that fast valve closure can generate high probability of system failure. Furthermore, it was confirmed that surge tank can reduce the unsteady effects and probability of system failure in water distribution system. From the results, it was found that the unsteady flow has a significant effect on the probability of system failure Furthermore, it was able to find which pipe or cut set has high probability of system failure. So it could be used to determine which pipe or cut set has a priority of repair and replacement. Therefore, reliability analysis regarding unsteady flow has to be performed for the planning, designing, maintenance, and operation of piping system.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.262-276
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• 2016

Generally, the Safety Integrity Level (SIL) of a subsea Blowout Preventer (BOP) is evaluated by determining the Probability of Failure on Demand (PFD), a low demand mode evaluation indicator. However, some SIL results are above the PFD's effective area despite the subsea BOP's demand rate being within the PFD's effective range. Determining a Hazardous Event Frequency (HEF) that can cover all demand rates could be useful when establishing the effective BOP SIL. This study focused on subsea BOP functions that follow guideline 070 of the Norwegian Oil and Gas. Events that control subsea well kicks are defined. The HEF of each BOP function is analyzed and compared with the PFD by investigating the frequency for each event and the demand rate for the components. In addition, risk control options related to PFD and HEF improvements are compared, and the effectiveness of HEF as a SIL verification for subsea BOP is assessed.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.33-43
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• 1998

To evaluate the server performance and forecast capacity requirements, we carry out simulation of Multimedia-on-demand(MOD) server. In multimedia service environment, especially for on-demand service, one of the key problems is capacity planning, which requires ensuring that adequate computer resources will be available to meet the future workload demands in a cost-effective manner. In this paper, we design and implement a simulation model for MOD server with failures of components (e.g., processors, disks and networks). By acquisition of utilization and queue length parameters, we can estimate desirable capacity of server components with various arrival rates of customers and failure rates of components. For a given failure probability, we also compute packet delay probability and reliability of the server. It is possible to derive some important design information of the MOD server by using the above parameters.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2007년도 제38회 하계학술대회
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• pp.1934-1935
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• 2007

본 논문은 원자력발전소 안전계통인 비상전원 공급용 디젤발전기의 여자시스템에 대해서 신뢰성 불럭선도를 이용하여 시스템을 모델링하고, 신뢰성 분석을 수행하고 그 결과 기동요구시 실패확률을 산출하는 방법과 결과를 기술하였다. 비상디젤발 전기 여자시스템을 구성하는 모든 부품의 고장률을 Telcordia SR-332 기준서의 부품수 방법을 이용하여 분석하고 FMEA (Failure Mode Effect Analysis)를 수행하며 IEC 61508에서 제시하고 있는 기동요구 시 실패확률(Probability of Failure on Demand, PFD)을 산출하였다.

• 한국지반공학회지:지반
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.47-58
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• 1985

본 연구에서는 토성정수와 하중을 종래의 단일치 대신 확률변수로 취급하여 얕은 기초의 신뢰도 해석을 시도하였다. 즉 토성정수와 하동을 점추정하는 대신 구간추정하여 얕은 기초의 안정성을 종래의 안전률 대신 파괴확률로 표시할 수 있었다. 이른바 허용안전률이 별다른 이론적 배경이 없는 경험의 소산에 불과하며 안전률이 수치적 안전척경가 되지 못한다는 태책을 감안하면 파괴확율은 보단 합리적인 신뢰도의 표현수단이 될 수 있다고 생각한다. 지전의 지지력과 하중은 정규분포, 대수총규분포 및 베타분포하는 것으로 가정하였고 이들 각 분포에 따르는 다수의 확률변수를 생성하여 오차전파방법으로 파괴확률을 산정하는 전산 프로그램을 개발하였다. 이 전산 프로그램을 이용하여 Case study를 하고 그 결과를 분석하였다.

• 산업공학
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.422-430
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• 2012

In this article, we introduced the estimation method by 'Safety Integrity Level'(SIL) for the criterion of safety assurance and performed a case study on a flame scanner. SIL requires probabilistic evaluation of each set of equipment used to reduce risk in a safety related system. FMEDA(Failure Modes, Effects and Diagnostic Analysis) method is widely used to evaluate the safety levels and provides information on the failure rates and failure mode distributions necessary to calculate a diagnostic coverage factor for a part or a component. Basically, two parameters resulting from FMEDA are used for SIL classification of the device : SFF(Safe Failure Fraction) and PFD(Probability of Failure on Demand). In this case study, it is concluded that the flame scanner is designed to fulfill the condition of SIL 3 in the aspect of SFF and PFD.

• 산업공학
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.405-415
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• 2012

The reliability performance measures for low and high or continuous demand modes of operation of safety instrumented systems(SISs) are examined and compared by analyzing the official definitions in IEC 61508 standard. This paper also presents a status of common cause factor(CCF) models used in IEC 61508 and problems relating CCF modelling are discussed and ideas to solve these ones are suggested. An example with mixed M-out-of-N architecture is carried out to illustrate the proposed methods.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.98-103
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• 2007

발생가능성 분석은 염소공정의 염소투입설비에서 누출 가능성을 교정하는데 자주 사용되고 있다. 그리고 이러한 시설은 전형적으로 압력용기, 기화기, 배관, 측량장비, 안전장치로 등으로 구성되어 있다. 이 논문에서는 가능성 분석절차와 기계적 요소들의 고장률에 대하여 사건 시나리오를 만들 인적오류도 고려하였다. 논문의 주된 목적은 결정된 각각의 시나리오의 발생가능성을 계산하는 것으로 발생가능성분석 방법에 근거하여 기계요소의 고장률과 인적오류를 포함하여 계산하였다. 그 결과, 주요 $Cl_2$ 취급공정에서 누출이 발생할 가능성이 $5.73{\times}10^{-5}$로 예측되었으며 세정시스템의 고장확률은 $4.11{\times}10^{-2}$로 나타났다.