• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of damages

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Fragility Analysis Method Based on Seismic Performance of Bridge Structure considering Earthquake Frequencies (지진 진동수에 따른 교량의 내진성능기반 취약도 해석 방법)

  • Lee, Dae-Hyoung;Chung, Young-Soo;Yang, Dong-Wook
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.187-197
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    • 2009
  • This paper presents a systematic approach for estimating fragility curves and damage probability matrices for different frequencies. Fragility curves and damage probability indicate the probabilities that a structure will sustain different degrees of damage at different ground motion levels. The seismic damages are to achieved by probabilistic evaluation because of uncertainty of earthquakes. In contrast to previous approaches, this paper presents a method that is based on nonlinear dynamic analysis of the structure using empirical data. This paper presents the probability of damage as a function of peak ground acceleration and estimates the probability of five damage levels for prestressed concrete (PSC) bridge pier subjected to given ground acceleration. At each level, 100 artificial earthquake motions were generated in terms of soil conditions, and nonlinear time domain analyses was performed for the damage states of PSC bridge pier structures. These damage states are described by displacement ductility resulting from seismic performance based on existing research results. Using the damage states and ground motion parameters, five fragility curves for PSC bridge pier with five types of dominant frequencies were constructed assuming a log-normal distribution. The effect of dominant frequences was found to be significant on fragility curves.

An Improvement Study on the Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (HQPF) for Rainfall Impact Forecasting (호우 영향예보를 위한 수문학적 정량강우예측(HQPF) 개선 연구)

  • Yoon Hu Shin;Sung Min Kim;Yong Keun Jee;Young-Mi Lee;Byung-Sik Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.87-98
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    • 2022
  • In recent years, frequent localized heavy rainfalls, which have a lot of rainfall in a short period of time, have been increasingly causing flooding damages. To prevent damage caused by localized heavy rainfalls, Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (HQPF) was developed using the Local ENsemble prediction System (LENS) provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and Machine Learning and Probability Matching (PM) techniques using Digital forecast data. HQPF is produced as information on the impact of heavy rainfall to prepare for flooding damage caused by localized heavy rainfalls, but there is a tendency to overestimate the low rainfall intensity. In this study, we improved HQPF by expanding the period of machine learning data, analyzing ensemble techniques, and changing the process of Probability Matching (PM) techniques to improve predictive accuracy and over-predictive propensity of HQPF. In order to evaluate the predictive performance of the improved HQPF, we performed the predictive performance verification on heavy rainfall cases caused by the Changma front from August 27, 2021 to September 3, 2021. We found that the improved HQPF showed a significantly improved prediction accuracy for rainfall below 10 mm, as well as the over-prediction tendency, such as predicting the likelihood of occurrence and rainfall area similar to observation.

A new damage identification approach based on impedance-type measurements and 2D error statistics

  • Providakis, Costas;Tsistrakis, Stavros;Voutetaki, Maristella;Tsompanakis, Yiannis;Stavroulaki, Maria;Agadakos, John;Kampianakis, Eleftherios;Pentes, George
    • Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.319-338
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    • 2015
  • The electro-mechanical impedance (EMI) technique makes use of surface-bonded lead zirconate titanate (PZT) patches as impedance transducers measuring impedance variations monitored on host structural components. The present experimental work further evaluate an alternative to the conventional EMI technique which performs measurements of the variations in the output voltage of PZT transducers rather than computing electromechanical impedance (or admittance) itself. This paper further evaluates a variant of the EMI approach presented in a previous work of the present authors, suitable, for low-cost concrete structures monitoring applications making use of a credit card-sized Raspberry Pi single board computer as core hardware unit. This monitoring approach is also deployed by introducing a new damage identification index based on the ratio between the area of the 2-D error ellipse of specific probability of EMI-based measurements containment over that of the 2-D error circle of equivalent probability. Experimental results of damages occurring in concrete cubic and beam specimens are investigated under increasing loading conditions. Results illustrate that the proposed technique is an efficient approach for identification and early detection of damage in concrete structures.

Seismic performance of RC buildings subjected to past earthquakes in Turkey

  • Inel, Mehmet;Meral, Emrah
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.483-503
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to evaluate seismic performance of existing low and mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings by comparing their displacement capacities and displacement demands under selected ground motions experienced in Turkey as well as demand spectrum provided in 2007 Turkish Earthquake Code for design earthquake with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for soil class Z3. It should be noted that typical residential buildings are designed according to demand spectrum of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Three RC building sets as 2-, 4- and 7-story, are selected to represent reference low-and mid-rise buildings located in the high seismicity region of Turkey. The selected buildings are typical beam-column RC frame buildings with no shear walls. The outcomes of detailed field and archive investigation including approximately 500 real residential RC buildings established building models to reflect existing building stock. Total of 72 3-D building models are constructed from the reference buildings to include the effects of some properties such as structural irregularities, concrete strength, seismic codes, structural deficiencies, transverse reinforcement detailing, and number of story on seismic performance of low and mid-rise RC buildings. Capacity curves of building sets are obtained by nonlinear static analyses conducted in two principal directions, resulting in 144 models. The inelastic dynamic characteristics are represented by "equivalent" Single-Degree-of- Freedom (ESDOF) systems using obtained capacity curves of buildings. Nonlinear time history analysis is used to estimate displacement demands of representative building models idealized with (ESDOF) systems subjected to the selected ground motion records from past earthquakes in Turkey. The results show that the significant number of pre-modern code 4- and 7-story buildings exceeds LS performance level while the modern code 4- and 7-story buildings have better performances. The findings obviously indicate the existence of destructive earthquakes especially for 4- and 7-story buildings. Significant improvements in the performance of the buildings per modern code are also obvious in the study. Almost one third of pre-modern code buildings is exceeding LS level during records in the past earthquakes. This observation also supports the building damages experienced in the past earthquake events in Turkey.

A methodology for design of metallic dampers in retrofit of earthquake-damaged frame

  • Zhang, Chao;Zhou, Yun;Weng, Da G.;Lu, De H.;Wu, Cong X.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.569-588
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    • 2015
  • A comprehensive methodology is proposed for design of metallic dampers in seismic retrofit of earthquake-damaged frame structures. It is assumed that the metallic dampers remain elastic and only provide stiffness during frequent earthquake (i.e., earthquake with a 63% probability of exceedance in 50-year service period), while in precautionary earthquake (i.e., earthquake with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50-year service period), the metallic dampers yield before the main frame and dissipate most of the seismic energy to either prevent or minimize structural damages. Therefore by converting multi-story frame to an equivalent single-degree-of-freedom system, the added stiffness provided by metallic dampers is designed to control elastic story drifts within code-based demand under frequent earthquake, and the added damping with the combination of added stiffness influences is obtained to control structural stress within performance-based target under precautionary earthquake. With the equivalent added damping ratio, the expected damping forces provided by metallic dampers can be calculated to carry out the configuration and design of metallic dampers along with supporting braces. Based on a detailed example for retrofit of an earthquake-damaged reinforced concrete frame by using metallic dampers, the proposed design procedure is demonstrated to be simple and practical, which can not only meet current China's design codes but also be used in retrofit design of earthquake-damaged frame with metallic damper for reaching desirable performance objective.

Development of Deterioration Prediction Model and Reliability Model for the Cyclic Freeze-Thaw of Concrete Structures (콘크리트구조물의 반복적 동결융해에 대한 수치 해석적 열화 예측 및 신뢰성 모델 개발)

  • Cho, Tae-Jun;Kim, Lee-Hyeon;Cho, Hyo-Nam
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2008
  • The initiation and growth processes of cyclic ice body in porous systems are affected by the thermo-physical and mass transport properties, as well as gradients of temperature and chemical potentials. Furthermore, the diffusivity of deicing chemicals shows significantly higher value under cyclic freeze-thaw conditions. Consequently, the disintegration of concrete structures is aggravated at marine environments, higher altitudes, and northern areas. However, the properties of cyclic freeze-thaw with crack growth and the deterioration by the accumulated damages are hard to identify in tests. In order to predict the accumulated damages by cyclic freeze-thaw, a regression analysis by the response surface method (RSM) is used. The important parameters for cyclic freeze-thawdeterioration of concrete structures, such as water to cement ratio, entrained air pores, and the number of cycles of freezing and thawing, are used to compose the limit state function. The regression equation fitted to the important deterioration criteria, such as accumulated plastic deformation, relative dynamic modulus, or equivalent plastic deformations, were used as the probabilistic evaluations of performance for the degraded structural resistance. The predicted results of relative dynamic modulus and residual strains after 300 cycles of freeze-thaw show very good agreements with the experimental results. The RSM result can be used to predict the probability of occurrence for designer specified critical values. Therefore, it is possible to evaluate the life cycle management of concrete structures considering the accumulated damages due to the cyclic freeze-thaw using the proposed prediction method.

A Quantitative Risk Analysis of LPG Leaked During Cylinder Delivery (가스용기 운반 중 누출된 LPG의 정량적 위험 분석)

  • Kim B-J,;Park Ki-Chang;Lee Kuen-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.7 no.2 s.19
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 2003
  • There exists high hazard when transporting LPG as well as using, storing, and producing. For small scale LPG consumer, retailers deliver LPG to customers via a truck loading many LPG cylinders. Suppose there occurred a accident during LPG cylinder transfer, this could result in serious damages to the life and properties in the near or neighbor of the accident spot. In this regard, we made a quantitative risk analysis to estimate the possible damages and the probability through the identification of accidents causes and the simulation of the possible scenario. In this study, we made the Excel & Visual Basic computer program to perform quantitative LPG accident analysis. The simulation showed the following results. In case of UVCE(Unconfined Vapor Cloud Explosion), the effect within l0m of the accident spot showed very severe structural damages and even the accident can break the window glasses of the area of 150 m apart from accident spot. In case of TNT corresponding probit analysis, after 10 minutes LPG leaking, $75\%$ window glasses of 40 m distance was expected to be broken. And $16\%$ frames of 20m distance, $10\%$ frames of 40m distance was expected to be collapsed.

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Effect of sequential earthquakes on evaluation of non-linear response of 3D RC MRFs

  • Oggu, Praveen;Gopikrishna, K.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.279-293
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    • 2021
  • Most of the existing seismic codes for RC buildings consider only a scenario earthquake for analysis, often characterized by the response spectrum at the specified location. However, any real earthquake event often involves occurrences of multiple earthquakes within a few hours or days, possessing similar or even higher energy than the first earthquake. This critically impairs the rehabilitation measures thereby resulting in the accumulation of structural damages for subsequent earthquakes after the first earthquake. Also, the existing seismic provisions account for the non-linear response of an RC building frame implicitly by specifying a constant response modification factor (R) in a linear elastic design. However, the 'R' specified does not address the changes in structural configurations of RC moment-resisting frames (RC MRFs) viz., building height, number of bays present, bay width, irregularities arising out of mass and stiffness changes, etc. resulting in changed dynamic characteristics of the structural system. Hence, there is an imperative need to assess the seismic performance under sequential earthquake ground motions, considering the adequacy of code-specified 'R' in the representation of dynamic characteristics of RC buildings. Therefore, the present research is focused on the evaluation of the non-linear response of medium-rise 3D RC MRFs with and without vertical irregularities under bi-directional sequential earthquake ground motions using non-linear dynamic analysis. It is evident from the results that collapse probability increases, and 'R' reduces significantly for various RC MRFs subjected to sequential earthquakes, pronouncing the vulnerability and inadequacy of estimation of design base shear by code-specified 'R' under sequential earthquakes.

Wind pressure characteristics of a low-rise building with various openings on a roof corner

  • Wang, Yunjie;Li, Q.S.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2015
  • Wind tunnel testing of a low-rise building with openings (holes) of different sizes and shapes on a roof corner is conducted to measure the internal and external pressures from the building model. Detailed analysis of the testing data is carried out to investigate the characteristics of the internal and external pressures of the building with different openings' configurations. Superimposition of the internal and external pressures makes the emergence of positive net pressures on the roof. The internal pressures demonstrate an overall uniform distribution. The probability density function (PDF) of the internal pressures is close to the Gaussian distribution. Compared with the PDF of the external pressures, the non-Gaussian characteristics of the net pressures weakened. The internal pressures exhibit strong correlation in frequency domain. There appear two humps in the spectra of the internal pressures, which correspond to the Helmholtz frequency and vortex shedding frequency, respectively. But, the peak for the vortex shedding frequency is offset for the net pressures. Furthermore, the internal pressure characteristics indirectly reflect that the length of the front edge enhances the development of the conical vortices.The objective of this study aims to further understanding of the characteristics of internal, external and net pressures for low-rise buildings in an effort to reduce wind damages to residential buildings.

Study on rockburst prevention technology of isolated working face with thick-hard roof

  • Jia, Chuanyang;Wang, Hailong;Sun, Xizhen;Yu, Xianbin;Luan, Hengjie
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.447-459
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    • 2020
  • Based on the literature statistical method, the paper publication status of the isolated working face and the distribution of the rockburst coal mine were obtained. The numerical simulation method is used to study the stress distribution law of working face under different mining range. In addition, based on the similar material simulation test, the overlying strata failure modes and the deformation characteristics of coal pillars during the mining process of the isolated working face with thick-hard key strata are analyzed. The research shows that, under the influence of the key strata, the overlying strata formation above the isolated working face is a long arm T-type spatial structure. With the mining of the isolated working face, a series of damages occur in the coal pillars, causing the key strata to break and inducing the rockburst occurs. Combined with the mechanism of rockburst induced by the dynamic and static combined load, the source of dynamic and static load on the isolated working face is analyzed, and the rockburst monitoring methods and the prevention and control measures are proposed. Through the above research, the occurrence probability of rockburst can be effectively reduced, which is of great significance for the safe mining of deep coal mines.