• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.95-105
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• 1988

This paper describes the development of a reliability-based optimum design technique for such three dimensional tubular frames as off shore structures. The objective function is formulated for the structural weight. Constraints that probability of failure for the critical sections does not exceed the allowable probability of failure are set up. In the evaluation of the probability of failure, fatigue as well as buckling and plasticity failure are taken into account and the mean-value first-order second-moment method(MVFOSM) is applied for its calculation. In order to reduce the computing time required for the repeated structural analysis in the optimization process, reanalysis method is also applied. Application to two and three dimensional simple frame structures is performed. The influence of material properties, external forces, allowable failure probabilities and interaction between external forces on the optimum design is investigated.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.147-155
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• 2023

This study aims to present a method to evaluate the relative risk of failure due to liquefaction of domestic small to medium-sized earthfill dams with a height of less than 15 m, which has little information on geotechnical properties. Based on the results of previous researches, a series of methods and procedures for estimating the probability of dam failure due to liquefaction, which calculates the probability of liquefaction occurrence of the dam body, the amount of settlement at the dam crest according to the estimation of the residual strength of the dam after liquefaction, the overtopping depth determined from the amount of settlement at the dam crest, and the probability of failure of the dam due to overtopping was explicitly presented. To this end, representative properties essential for estimating the probability of failure due to the liquefaction of small to medium-sized earthfill dams were presented. Since it is almost impossible to directly determine these representative properties for each of the target dams because it is almost impossible to obtain geotechnical property information, they were estimated and determined from the results of field and laboratory tests conducted on existing small to medium-sized earthfill dams in previous researches. The method and procedure presented in this study were applied to 12 earthfill dams on a trial basis, and the liquefaction failure probability was calculated. The analysis of the calculation results confirmed that the representative properties were reasonable and that the overall evaluation procedure and method were effective.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.235-240
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• 2009

Simulation method based on probability was developed to evaluate the durability of reinforced concrete structures about chloride attack. The effects of the probability parameters(surface chloride ion concentration, initial combined chloride ion concentration, the depth of cover thickness of concrete, and the chloride ion diffusion coefficient), probability distribution function and it's variation were calculated using the Monte Carlo method and Fick's 2nd law. From the durability design method proposed in this study, the following results were obtained. 1) The effects of the distance from the coast and the chloride ion diffusion coefficient to the corrosion probability were quite high. 2) The effect of the variation of each parameters was relatively low.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2001.06a
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• pp.459-464
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• 2001

For major nuclear power plant components periodic inspections and integrity assessments are needed for the safety. But many flaws are undetectable due to sampling inspection. Probabilistic integrity assessment is applied to take into consideration of uncertainty and variance of input parameters arise due to material properties, applied load and undetectable flaws. This paper describes a Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics(PFM) analysis based on Monte Carlo(MC) algorithms. Taking important parameters as probabilistic variables such as fracture toughness, crack growth rate and flaw shape, failure probability of major nuclear power plant components is archived as a results of MC simulation. For the verification of these analysis, a comparison study of the PFM analysis using other commercial code, mathematical method is carried out and a good agreement was observed between those results.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.158-164
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• 2008

Abstract Infiltration of rainfall that may lead to reduce resistance force due to reduction of matric suction and to increase driving force due to increase of self weight makes the slope fail. There are many specifications to make slope stable based on factor of safety. Although result of slope stability analysis satisfy the specifications, slope failures triggered by rainfall are frequently occurred in reality because slope stability analysis cannot consider uncertainty of each soil properties. This is why conventional analysis has limitation and development of alternative method is needed. So it is suggested to adopt the reliability analysis rather than design based on factor of safety into designing safer structure. Through the evaluation of handicaps for the factor of safety based design, calculation of soil properties by site investigation, and reliability analysis considering distribution of each soil properties, distribution of failure probability in railway slope is obtained. Then, Risk assessment of slopes in Korean railway is executed from the results. Damage loss and incoming loss are considered as the loss. Using these results, it is possible to make proper countermeasure or efficient maintenance.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.97-105
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• 2002

Random properties of discontinuities were attributed to the limitation of test methods and lack of obtained data. Therefore, the uncertainties are pervasive and inevitable in rock slope engineering as well as other geotechnical engineering fields. The probabilistic analysis has been proposed to deal properly with the uncertainty. However, previous probabilistic approaches do not take account of the condition of kinematic instability but consider only kinetic instability. In this study, in order to overcome the limitation of the previous studies, the geometric characteristics as well as the shear strength characteristics in discontinuities are taken account into the probabilistic analysis. Then, the new approach to evaluate the probability of failure is suggested. The results of the deterministic analysis which was carried out to compare with the result of the probabilistic analysis, are somewhat different from those of the probabilistic approach. This is because the selected and used data in the deterministic approach do not take account of the random properties of discontinuities.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.309-323
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• 2024

The gust factor and turbulence intensity are two crucial parameters that characterize the properties of turbulence. In tropical cyclones (TCs), these parameters exhibit significant variability, yet there is a lack of established formulas to account for their probabilistic characteristics with consideration of their inherent connection. On this condition, a probabilistic analysis of gust factors and turbulence intensities of TCs is conducted based on fourteen sets of wind data collected at the Sutong Cable-stayed Bridge site. Initially, the turbulence intensities and gust factors of recorded data are computed, followed by an analysis of their probability densities across different ranges categorized by mean wind speed. The Gaussian, lognormal, and generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions are employed to fit the measured probability densities, with subsequent evaluation of their effectiveness. The Gumbel distribution, which is a specific instance of the GEV distribution, has been identified as an optimal choice for probabilistic characterizations of turbulence intensity and gust factor in TCs. The corresponding empirical models are then established through curve fitting. By utilizing the Gumbel distribution as a template, the nexus between the probability density functions of turbulence intensity and gust factor is built, leading to the development of a generalized probabilistic model that statistically describe turbulence intensity and gust factor in TCs. Finally, these empirical models are validated using measured data and compared with suggestions recommended by specifications.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.5A
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• pp.425-431
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• 2010

The phase distribution in a multi-phase material strongly affects its material properties. Therefore, a proper method to describe the phase distribution of a material is needed. In this research, probability distribution functions, two-point correlation and lineal-path functions, are used to represent the probabilistic phase distributions of a material. The probability distribution function is calculated using a numerical method and is described as an analytical form via exponential curve fitting with three parameters. Application of analytical form of probability distribution function is investigated using two-phase polycrystalline solids and soil samples. It is confirmed that the probability distribution functions can be represented as an exponential form using curve fitting which helps identifying the applicability of a representative volume element(RVE).

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.2A
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• pp.115-120
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• 2011

The strength of reinforced concrete members has uncertainty from material properties of, concrete and reinforcements, section dimensions, and construction errors and so on. The accurate evaluation of these uncertainties is necessary to assure the reasonable safety. The uncertainties should be taken into account in design using structural reliability theory which requires probabilistic models for such uncertainties. In current Korean design code, most reliability evaluations were performed based on foreign data because of lack of local data. In this paper, the probabilistic models for yield strength of reinforcements were developed based on local data. The effects of various factors, nominal yield strength, diameter of reinforcements, and companies, on the models are also examined. According to data analysed, the effects of those factors are not significant. The probability model for yield strength of reinforcements in Korea can be expressed with Beta distribution based on collected data.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.243-251
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• 2010

Evapotranspiration and rainfall-runoff are the major components of hydrological cycle and thereby the changes of them can directly affect the wetness/dryness or runoff characteristics of basins. In this study the wetness/dryness in Geum river basin are classified by dint of cumulative probability density function of monthly moisture index and the long term changes of them are analyzed based on climatic water balance concept. The drought events in Geum river basin are selected through evaluation of monthly moisture index and the various hydrological properties of them are investigated in detail. Also the trends of time-series of climatic water balance components are examined by Seasonal Kendall test and the variability of hydrological cycle in Geum river basin during the recent decade is inquired. It is judged that the results of this study can be contributed to establishment of the counter plan against the future drought events as the fundamental information.