• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability Factor

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Reliability of mortar filling layer void length in in-service ballastless track-bridge system of HSR

  • Binbin He;Sheng Wen;Yulin Feng;Lizhong Jiang;Wangbao Zhou
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.91-102
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    • 2023
  • To study the evaluation standard and control limit of mortar filling layer void length, in this paper, the train sub-model was developed by MATLAB and the track-bridge sub-model considering the mortar filling layer void was established by ANSYS. The two sub-models were assembled into a train-track-bridge coupling dynamic model through the wheel-rail contact relationship, and the validity was corroborated by the coupling dynamic model with the literature model. Considering the randomness of fastening stiffness, mortar elastic modulus, length of mortar filling layer void, and pier settlement, the test points were designed by the Box-Behnken method based on Design-Expert software. The coupled dynamic model was calculated, and the support vector regression (SVR) nonlinear mapping model of the wheel-rail system was established. The learning, prediction, and verification were carried out. Finally, the reliable probability of the amplification coefficient distribution of the response index of the train and structure in different ranges was obtained based on the SVR nonlinear mapping model and Latin hypercube sampling method. The limit of the length of the mortar filling layer void was, thus, obtained. The results show that the SVR nonlinear mapping model developed in this paper has a high fitting accuracy of 0.993, and the computational efficiency is significantly improved by 99.86%. It can be used to calculate the dynamic response of the wheel-rail system. The length of the mortar filling layer void significantly affects the wheel-rail vertical force, wheel weight load reduction ratio, rail vertical displacement, and track plate vertical displacement. The dynamic response of the track structure has a more significant effect on the limit value of the length of the mortar filling layer void than the dynamic response of the vehicle, and the rail vertical displacement is the most obvious. At 250 km/h - 350 km/h train running speed, the limit values of grade I, II, and III of the lengths of the mortar filling layer void are 3.932 m, 4.337 m, and 4.766 m, respectively. The results can provide some reference for the long-term service performance reliability of the ballastless track-bridge system of HRS.

A Study on the Incidence of Side Effects according to the Number of Beams in Intensity-modulated Radiation Therapy for Prostate Cancer using 15 MV (15 MV를 이용한 전립샘암 세기조절 방사선치료 시 빔의 개수에 따른 부작용 발생률에 관한 연구)

  • Joo-Ah Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.481-487
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    • 2023
  • In this study, we analyzed the incidence of side effects of photoneutron dose according to the number of beams during intensity-modulated radiotherapy of prostate cancer using 15 MV. The radiation treatment plan design for intensity-modulated radiation therapy for prostate cancer was established with a prescription dose of 220 cGy per dose and a total of 7260 cGy for 33 treatments. The linear accelerator used in the experiment is Varian's True Beam STx (Varian, USA). Photoneutron dose was generated by using 15 MV energy in the planning target volume (PTV). The treatment plan was designed with IMRT 5, 7, and 9 portals using the Eclipse System (Varian Ver 10.0, USA). An optically stimulated luminescence albedo neutron dosimeter (Landauer Inc., USA) was used to measure photoneutron dose. IMRT 5 portals, 1.7 per 1,000, 7 portals, 1.8 per 1,000, 9 portals, 2.0 per 1,000 were calculated as the probability of experiencing side effects on the thyroid gland due to photoneutron dose. This study studies the risk of secondary radiation exposure dose that can occur during intensity-modulated radiation therapy, and it is considered that it will be used as useful data in relation to stochastic effects in the future.

Quantification of Schedule Delay Risk of Rain via Text Mining of a Construction Log (공사일지의 텍스트 마이닝을 통한 우천 공기지연 리스크 정량화)

  • Park, Jongho;Cho, Mingeon;Eom, Sae Ho;Park, Sun-Kyu
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.109-117
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    • 2023
  • Schedule delays present a major risk factor, as they can adversely affect construction projects, such as through increasing construction costs, claims from a client, and/or a decrease in construction quality due to trims to stages to catch up on lost time. Risk management has been conducted according to the importance and priority of schedule delay risk, but quantification of risk on the depth of schedule delay tends to be inadequate due to limitations in data collection. Therefore, this research used the BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers) language model to convert the contents of aconstruction log, which comprised unstructured data, into WBS (Work Breakdown Structure)-based structured data, and to form a model of classification and quantification of risk. A process was applied to eight highway construction sites, and 75 cases of rain schedule delay risk were obtained from 8 out of 39 detailed work kinds. Through a K-S test, a significant probability distribution was derived for fourkinds of work, and the risk impact was compared. The process presented in this study can be used to derive various schedule delay risks in construction projects and to quantify their depth.

Temporal distritution analysis of design rainfall by significance test of regression coefficients (회귀계수의 유의성 검정방법에 따른 설계강우량 시간분포 분석)

  • Park, Jin Heea;Lee, Jae Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.257-266
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    • 2022
  • Inundation damage is increasing every year due to localized heavy rain and an increase of rainfall exceeding the design frequency. Accordingly, the importance of hydraulic structures for flood control and defense is also increasing. The hydraulic structures are designed according to its purpose and performance, and the amount of flood is an important calculation factor. However, in Korea, design rainfall is used as input data for hydrological analysis for the design of hydraulic structures due to the lack of sufficient data and the lack of reliability of observation data. Accurate probability rainfall and its temporal distribution are important factors to estimate the design rainfall. In practice, the regression equation of temporal distribution for the design rainfall is calculated using the cumulative rainfall percentage of Huff's quartile method. In addition, the 6th order polynomial regression equation which shows high overall accuracy, is uniformly used. In this study, the optimized regression equation of temporal distribution is derived using the variable selection method according to the principle of parsimony in statistical modeling. The derived regression equation of temporal distribution is verified through the significance test. As a result of this study, it is most appropriate to derive the regression equation of temporal distribution using the stepwise selection method, which has the advantages of both forward selection and backward elimination.

A Study on Seismic Capacity Assessment of Long-Span Suspension Bridges by Construction Methods Considering Earthquake Characteristics (지진특성을 고려한 장경간 현수교량의 시공방안별 내진성능 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Sung Ho;Jang, Sun Jae;Lim, Nam Hyung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.2A
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2010
  • The numerical analysis and safety assessment by construction stages were considered the essential examination particular in order to solving the unstability of long-span bridges in the middle a construction. When estimating structural response characteristics by the construction stage analysis of long-span bridges, the influence of the near-field ground motion (NFGM) would be evaluated as a critical factor for the seismic design because it indicates clearly different aspects from the existing input earthquake motion data. Therefore, this study re-examined the response aspect of long-span bridges considering NFGM characteristics based on the response spectrum result, and advanced the presented numerical analysis program by the related research for conducting the construction stage analysis and reliability assessment of long-span bridges efficiently. The excellency of various construction schemes was assessed using the time history analysis result of critical member considering NFGM characteristics. For evaluating quantitative safety level, the reliability analysis was conducted considering the influence of external uncertainties included in random variables, and presented the safety index and failure probability of the critical construction stage by NFGM characteristics. In addition, the reliability result was examined the influence of internal uncertainties using monte carlo simulation (MCS), and assessed the distribution aspect of the essential analysis result. It is expected that this study will provide the basic information for the construction safety improvement when performing seismic design of long-span bridges considering NFGM characteristics.

The Effect of Road Networks on Urban Resilience in Flooding (도시침수 시 도로네트워크가 도시회복도에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Hyung Jun Park;Dong Hyun Kim;Hyun Jung Lee;Seung Oh Lee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.85-98
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    • 2023
  • Flood is one of the most frequent natural disasters worldwide. In Korea, the probability of urban flooding is greatly increasing due to complex factors such as global warming, an increase in impervious areas, and limitations in expanding water supply facilities in existing urban areas. However, large-scale civil engineering works to prevent urban inundation are socially and economically difficult to obtain national consent. Recently the importance of resilience, which is the ability to return to the original state after a disaster through rapid recovery while preparing for natural disasters to a level that the local community can afford socially and economically, is increasing. Accordingly, various studies on urban resilience have been conducted, but the resilience measurement method related to the lifeline that provides essential services of the city is insufficient. However, among lifelines, road networks are important facilities for the transportation of recovery resources and rapid recovery in the event of a natural disaster, so road networks are a major factor that must be considered when measuring the degree of recovery of a city in the field of natural disasters. Therefore, this study proposes a recovery evaluation method considering the characteristics of resilience and road networks in the urban flooding field and analyzes the effect of road networks on urban resilience.

A Study on the Impact of Forklift Institutional, Technical, and Educational Factors on a Disaster Reduction (지게차의 제도적, 기술적, 교육적 요인이 재해감소에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Young Min Park;Jin Eog Kim
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.770-778
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: In order to reduce forklift industrial accidents, it is necessary to classify them into institutional, technical, and educational factors and conduct research on whether each factor affects disaster reduction. Method: Descriptive statistical analysis, validity analysis, reliability analysis, and multiple regression analysis were conducted using SPSS 18 program based on an offline questionnaire based on a 5-point Likert scale. Result: As a result of multiple regression analysis, it was found that institutional, technical, and educational factors, which are independent variables for disaster reduction, explain about 62.5% of the variance in disaster prevention, which is the dependent variable. The regression model verification was found to be statistically significant with F=118.775 and significance probability p<0.01. Conclusion: First, there is a need to prevent disasters by including electric forklifts weighing less than 3 tons in the inspection system. Second, there is a need to make it mandatory to install front and rear cameras and forklift line beams to prevent forklift collision disasters. Third, there is a need to conduct special training related to forklifts every year, and drivers and nearby workers need to be included in the special training for forklifts.

Cavitation signal detection based on time-series signal statistics (시계열 신호 통계량 기반 캐비테이션 신호 탐지)

  • Haesang Yang;Ha-Min Choi;Sock-Kyu Lee;Woojae Seong
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.400-405
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    • 2024
  • When cavitation noise occurs in ship propellers, the level of underwater radiated noise abruptly increases, which can be a critical threat factor as it increases the probability of detection, particularly in the case of naval vessels. Therefore, accurately and promptly assessing cavitation signals is crucial for improving the survivability of submarines. Traditionally, techniques for determining cavitation occurrence have mainly relied on assessing acoustic/vibration levels measured by sensors above a certain threshold, or using the Detection of Envelop Modulation On Noise (DEMON) method. However, technologies related to this rely on a physical understanding of cavitation phenomena and subjective criteria based on user experience, involving multiple procedures, thus necessitating the development of techniques for early automatic recognition of cavitation signals. In this paper, we propose an algorithm that automatically detects cavitation occurrence based on simple statistical features reflecting cavitation characteristics extracted from acoustic signals measured by sensors attached to the hull. The performance of the proposed technique is evaluated depending on the number of sensors and model test conditions. It was confirmed that by sufficiently training the characteristics of cavitation reflected in signals measured by a single sensor, the occurrence of cavitation signals can be determined.

Motives for Writing After-Purchase Consumer Reviews in Online Stores and Classification of Online Store Shoppers (인터넷 점포에서의 구매후기 작성 동기 및 점포 고객 유형화)

  • Hong, Hee-Sook;Ryu, Sung-Min
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.25-57
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    • 2012
  • This study identified motives for writing apparel product reviews in online stores, and determined what motives increase the behavior of writing reviews. It also classified store customers based on the type of writing motives, and clarified the characteristics of internet purchase behavior and of a demographic profile. Data were collected from 252 females aged 20s' and 30s' who have experience of reading and writing reviews on online shopping. The five types of writing motives were altruistic information sharing, remedying of a grievance and vengeance, economic incentives, helping new product development, and the expression of satisfaction feelings. Among five motives, altruistic information sharing, economic incentives, and helping new product development stimulate writing reviews. Store customers who write reviews were classified into three groups based on their writing motive types: Other consumer advocates(29.8%), self-interested shoppers(40.5%) and shoppers with moderate motives(29.8%). There were significant differences among three groups in writing behavior (the frequency of writing reviews, writing intent of reviews, duration of writing reviews, and frequency of online shopping) and age. Based on results, managerial implications were suggested. Long Abstract : The purpose of present study is to identify the types of writing motives on online shopping, and to clarify the motives affecting the behavior of writing reviews. This study also classifies online shoppers based on the motive types, and identifies the characteristics of the classified groups in terms of writing behavior, frequency of online shopping, and demographics. Use and Gratification Theory was adopted in this study. Qualitative research (focus group interview) and quantitative research were used. Korean women(20 to 39 years old) who reported experience with purchasing clothing online, and reading and writing reviews were selected as samples(n=252). Most of the respondents were relatively young (20-34yrs., 86.1%,), single (61.1%), employed(61.1%) and residents living in big cities(50.9%). About 69.8% of respondents read and 40.5% write apparel reviews frequently or very frequently. 24.6% of the respondents indicated an "average" in their writing frequency. Based on the qualitative result of focus group interviews and previous studies on motives for online community activities, measurement items of motives for writing after-purchase reviews were developed. All items were used a five-point Likert scale with endpoints 1 (strongly disagree) and 5 (strongly agree). The degree of writing behavior was measured by items concerning experience of writing reviews, frequency of writing reviews, amount of writing reviews, and intention of writing reviews. A five-point scale(strongly disagree-strongly agree) was employed. SPSS 18.0 was used for exploratory factor analysis, K-means cluster analysis, one-way ANOVA(Scheffe test) and ${\chi}^2$-test. Confirmatory factor analysis and path model analysis were conducted by AMOS 18.0. By conducting principal components factor analysis (varimax rotation, extracting factors with eigenvalues above 1.0) on the measurement items, five factors were identified: Altruistic information sharing, remedying of a grievance and vengeance, economic incentives, helping new product development, and expression of satisfaction feelings(see Table 1). The measurement model including these final items was analyzed by confirmatory factor analysis. The measurement model had good fit indices(GFI=.918, AGFI=.884, RMR=.070, RMSEA=.054, TLI=.941) except for the probability value associated with the ${\chi}^2$ test(${\chi}^2$=189.078, df=109, p=.00). Convergent validities of all variables were confirmed using composite reliability. All SMC values were found to be lower than AVEs confirming discriminant validity. The path model's goodness-of-fit was greater than the recommended limits based on several indices(GFI=.905, AGFI=.872, RMR=.070, RMSEA=.052, TLI=.935; ${\chi}^2$=260.433, df=155, p=.00). Table 2 shows that motives of altruistic information sharing, economic incentives and helping new product development significantly increased the degree of writing product reviews of online shopping. In particular, the effect of altruistic information sharing and pursuit of economic incentives on the behavior of writing reviews were larger than the effect of helping new product development. As shown in table 3, online store shoppers were classified into three groups: Other consumer advocates (29.8%), self-interested shoppers (40.5%), and moderate shoppers (29.8%). There were significant differences among the three groups in the degree of writing reviews (experience of writing reviews, frequency of writing reviews, amount of writing reviews, intention of writing reviews, and duration of writing reviews, frequency of online shopping) and age. For five aspects of writing behavior, the group of other consumer advocates who is mainly comprised of 20s had higher scores than the other two groups. There were not any significant differences between self-interested group and moderate group regarding writing behavior and demographics.

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The Comparison of Basic Science Research Capacity of OECD Countries

  • Lim, Yang-Taek;Song, Choong-Han
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.147-176
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    • 2003
  • This Paper Presents a new measurement technique to derive the level of BSRC (Basic Science and Research Capacity) index by use of the factor analysis which is extended with the assumption of the standard normal probability distribution of the selected explanatory variables. The new measurement method is used to forecast the gap of Korea's BSRC level compared with those of major OECD countries in terms of time lag and to make their international comparison during the time period of 1981∼1999, based on the assumption that the BSRC progress function of each country takes the form of the logistic curve. The US BSRC index is estimated to be 0.9878 in 1981, 0.9996 in 1990 and 0.99991 in 1999, taking the 1st place. The US BSRC level has been consistently the top among the 16 selected variables, followed by Japan, Germany, France and the United Kingdom, in order. Korea's BSRC is estimated to be 0.2293 in 1981, taking the lowest place among the 16 OECD countries. However, Korea's BSRC indices are estimated to have been increased to 0.3216 (in 1990) and 0.44652 (in 1999) respectively, taking 10th place. Meanwhile, Korea's BSRC level in 1999 (0.44652) is estimated to reach those of the US and Japan in 2233 and 2101, respectively. This means that Korea falls 234 years behind USA and 102 years behind Japan, respectively. Korea is also estimated to lag 34 years behind Germany, 16 years behind France and the UK, 15 years behind Sweden, 11 years behind Canada, 7 years behind Finland, and 5 years behind the Netherlands. For the period of 1981∼1999, the BSRC development speed of the US is estimated to be 0.29700. Its rank is the top among the selected OECD countries, followed by Japan (0.12800), Korea (0.04443), and Germany (0.04029). the US BSRC development speed (0.2970) is estimated to be 2.3 times higher than that of Japan (0.1280), and 6.7 times higher than that of Korea. German BSRC development speed (0.04029) is estimated to be fastest in Europe, but it is 7.4 times slower than that of the US. The estimated BSRC development speeds of Belgium, Finland, Italy, Denmark and the UK stand between 0.01 and 0.02, which are very slow. Particularly, the BSRC development speed of Spain is estimated to be minus 0.0065, staying at the almost same level of BSRC over time (1981 ∼ 1999). Since Korea shows BSRC development speed much slower than those of the US and Japan but relative]y faster than those of other countries, the gaps in BSRC level between Korea and the other countries may get considerably narrower or even Korea will surpass possibly several countries in BSRC level, as time goes by. Korea's BSRC level had taken 10th place till 1993. However, it is estimated to be 6th place in 2010 by catching up the UK, Sweden, Finland and Holland, and 4th place in 2020 by catching up France and Canada. The empirical results are consistent with OECD (2001a)'s computation that Korea had the highest R&D expenditures growth during 1991∼1999 among all OECD countries ; and the value-added of ICT industries in total business sectors value added is 12% in Korea, but only 8% in Japan. And OECD (2001b) observed that Korea, together with the US, Sweden, and Finland, are already the four most knowledge-based countries. Hence, the rank of the knowledge-based country was measured by investment in knowledge which is defined as public and private spending on higher education, expenditures on R&D and investment in software.

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