• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.23 no.7
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• pp.783-790
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• 2017

An acceptable proximity assessment collision probability is widely considered to be less than $10^{-4}$ in maritime traffic safety audit schemes. In the 1970s, Fujii, Macduff and colleagues introduced various models for collision probability of aberrancy in the community. Although existing studies ensured acceptable proximity collision probability, around $10^{-4}$, they were constrained by assumptions. A lack of support for the proximity probability criterion has been investigated in this study for practical use. The appropriate proximity probability for different size vessels in both straight and curved lanes has been analyzed based on GICOMS data. As a result, reasonable proximity collision probabilities were determined for various vessel traffic conditions. Accordingly, necessary improvements in the maritime traffic system have been suggested in consideration for various maritime traffic situations and conditions.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.8 no.6 s.40
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• pp.31-43
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• 2004

Seismic risk assessment of bridge is presented using fragility curves which represent the probability of damage of a structure virsus the peak ground acceleration. In theseismic fragility analysis, the structural damage is defined using the rotational ductility at the base of the bridge pier, which is obtained through nonlinear dynamic analysis for various input earthquakes. For the assessment of seismic risk of bridge, peak ground accelerations are obatined for various return periods from the seismic hazard map of Korea, which enables to calculate the probability density function of peak ground acceleration. Combining the probability density function of peak ground acceleration and the seismic fragility analysis, seismic risk assessment is performed. In this study, seismic fragility analysis is developed as a function of not the surface motion which the bridge actually suffers, but the rock outcrop motion which the aseismic design code is defined on, so that further analysis for the seismic hazard assessment may become available. Besides, the effects of the friction pot bearings and the friction pendulum bearings on the seismic fragility and risk analysis are examined. Lastly, three regions in Korea are considered and compared in the seismic risk assessment.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2004.04a
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• pp.161-168
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• 2004

This study describes the behavior and failure probability of basic structural member in case of fire for the research of safety assessment on onshore structure. Fire safety assessment can be done by comparing fire resistance of members with fire severity of heat load For more Practical applications, the commercial structural analysis program is linked with the in-house code and gets the limiting temperature by analyzing structural strength of member with elasto-plastic analysis and large deflection analysis. AFOSM method is utilized to obtain the failure probability against the fire. The examples of rather simple structures such as beams and plates are applied to explain and verify the procedure of fire safety assessment.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.20 no.2 s.70
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• pp.50-55
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• 2005

This Paper Presents assessment of fuzzy measure Possibility far the electromagnetic field according to voltage fluctuation of the Jechon Area. To cope with substantial electromagnetic analysis, the safety assessment were analyzed the double 154kV T/L, 345kV T/L, Jechon-Ichon Jechon-Youngju, respectively. As the results of case study, in case of 345kV T/L, the electric field value was 11.4927kV/m, magnetic field value was 0.4622G at the Point about 7m away from the line in severest case. Tn assessment of fuzzy measure Possibility for the electromagnetic field, this paper use probability of fuzzy and measure of fuzziness technique.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.39-48
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• 2012

Risk Assessment to list possible safety disasters and their probability and severity is the starting point for effective safety management on construction project site. However, the safety managers in owners, construction supervisors, contractors, and sub-contractors still have difficulties in judging the priorities of safety activities and preparing responses to each potential safety disasters. Therefore, this study aimed to suggest a systematic method in assessing safety risk prior to commencement with the agreement of stakeholders. FMECA(failure mode effects and criticality analysis) was selected as a main assessment tool and it was modified according to the characteristics of construction projects and trades. Each risk is, firstly, evaluated with occurrence probability, possible loss and impacts to projects, and detections, and then risk priority number(RPN) is calculated. Subsequently, the managers of each stakeholder discuss the types, timing, and responsibilities of responses as a group decision-making process.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.45 no.5
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• pp.497-510
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• 2019

Objectives: The aim of this study was to secure the reliability of using the CalTOX model when evaluating LADD (or ADD) and Risk (or HQ) among local residents for the emission of BTEX (Benzene, Toluene, Ethylbenzene, Xylene) and by closely examining the difference in the confidence interval of the assessment outcomes according to the difference in the probability density function of input variables. Methods: The assessment was made by dividing it according to the method ($I^{\dagger}$) of inputting the probability density function in meteorological variables of the model with log-normal distribution and the method of inputting ($II^{\ddagger}$) after grasping the optimal probability density function using @Risk. A T-test was carried out in order to analyze the difference in confidence interval of the two assessment results. Results: It was evaluated to be 1.46E-03 mg/kg-d in LADD of Benzene, 1.96E-04 mg/kg-d in ADD of Toluene, 8.15E-05 mg/kg-d in ADD of Ethylbenzene, and 2.30E-04 mg/kg-d in ADD of Xylene. As for the predicted confidence interval in LADD and ADD, there was a significant difference between the $I^{\dagger}$ and $II^{\ddagger}$ methods in $LADD_{Inhalation}$ for Benzene, and in $ADD_{Inhalation}$ and ADD for Toluene and Xylene. It appeared to be 3.58E-05 for risk in Benzene, 3.78E-03 for HQ in Toluene, 1.48E-03 for HQ in Ethylbenzene, and 3.77E-03 for HQ in Xylene. As a result of the HQ in Toluene and Xylene, the difference in confidence interval between the $I^{\dagger}$ and $II^{\ddagger}$ methods was shown to be significant. Conclusions: The human risk assessment for BTEX was made by dividing it into the method ($I^{\dagger}$) of inputting the probability density function of meteorological variables for the CalTOX model with log-normal distribution, and the method of inputting ($II^{\ddagger}$) after grasping the optimal probability density function using @Risk. As a result, it was identified that Risk (or HQ) is the same, but that there is a significant difference in the confidence interval of Risk (or HQ) between the $I^{\dagger}$ and $II^{\ddagger}$ methods.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.107-112
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• 2003

Probabilistic exposure assessment has been recognized as an important tool in microbial risk assessment, because of obtained the desired results to characterize of variability and uncertainty associated with the microbial hazards. In addition, it will be provided much more actuality information than the point-estimate approaches. In this study, we present methodology using mathematical probability distribution in exposure assessment and estimating of contamination level of Listeria monocytogenes in meat and meat products as a case study. The result of estimation contaminatin level was mean ($50^{th}$ percentile) -4.08 Log CFU/g minimum ($5^{th}$ percentile) -4.88 Log CFU/g, maximum ($95^{th}$ percentile) -3.56 Log CFU/g.

• Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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• v.42 no.3
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• pp.373-376
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• 2010

The objective of this study was to present the proper probability distribution model based on the data obtained from surveys on domestic refrigerator food storage temperatures in home. Domestic refrigerator temperatures were determined as risk factors in foodborne disease outbreaks for microbial risk assessment (MRA). The temperature was measured by directly visiting 139 homes using a data logger from May to September of 2009. The overall mean temperature for all the refrigerators in the survey was $3.53{\pm}2.96^{\circ}C$, with 23.6% of the refrigerators measuring above $5^{\circ}C$. Probability distributions were also created using @RISK program based on the measured temperature data. Statistical ranking was determined by the goodness of fit (GOF, i.e., the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or Anderson-Darling (AD) test) to determine the proper probability distribution model. This result showed that the LogLogistic (-10.407, 13.616, 8.6107) distribution was found to be the most appropriate for the MRA model. The results of this study might be directly used as input variables in exposure evaluation for conducting MRA.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.116-123
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• 2016

The quantitative risk assessment methods for thermal failure in targets were studied using fire modeling. To this end, Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), as a representative fire model, was used and the probabilities related to thermal damage to an electrical cable were evaluated according to the change in fire area inside a specific compartment. 'The maximum probability of exceeding the damage thresholds' adopted in a conservative point of view and 'the probability of failure' including the time to damage were compared. The probability of failure suggested in the present study could evaluate the quantitative fire risk more realistically, compared to the maximum probability of exceeding the damage thresholds with the assumption that thermal damage occurred the instant the target reached its minimum failure criteria in terms of the surface temperature and heat flux.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.830-842
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• 2015

Trust and trustworthiness of web services and organizations is calculated as scalar values. But there is still a certain level of risk for the overall reliability of this value. In this article, we focus on calculating trust values as intervals between upper and lower bounds based on predefined confidence values through an additional confidence probability. This will give us a more realistic approach to the trust assessments between individuals and organizations. We also developed a web-based software tool, TAST (Trust Assessment Software Tool) that collects the web services' evaluation of different customer groups for similar organizations through the user interface and calculates the trust intervals for predefined and previously selected confidence values. Our model uses a weighted calculation of mean and variances of customer groups in specific periods and analyses the total and incremental trust of different customer groups.