• 한국안전학회지
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.137-142
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• 2006

Quantification of error possibility, in an HRA process, should be performed so that the result of the qualitative analysis can be utilized in other areas in conjunction with overall safety estimation results. And also, the quantification is an essential process to analyze the error possibility in detail and to obtain countermeasures for the errors through screening procedures. In previous studies for the quantification of error possibility, nominal values were assigned by the experts' judgements and utilized as corresponding probabilities. The values assigned by experts' experiences and judgements, however, require verifications on their reliability. In this study, the validity of new error possibility values in new MCR design was verified by using the Onisawa's model which utilizes fuzzy linguistic values to estimate human error probabilities. With the model of error probabilities are represented as analyst's estimations and natural language expression instead of numerical values. As results, the experts' estimation values about error probabilities are well agreed to the existing error probability estimation model. Thus, it was concluded that the occurrence probabilities of errors derived from the human error analysis process can be assessed by nominal values suggested in the previous studies. It is also expected that our analysis method can supplement the conventional HRA method because the nominal values are based on the consideration of various influencing factors such as PSFs.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.61-80
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• 1978

This paper presents general solutions for stochastic square duels with continuous interfiring times and various firing strategies such as standby (S), concentrated (C), seperated (I) and random (R) firings. Analysis of these square duels with negative exponential interfiring times and equivalent values of rates of fire and single shot kill probabilities reveal three important facts: i) Strategy (C) is advantageous against the opponent's strategy (S) and the advantage becomes more pronounced for lower values of single shot kill probabilities. ii) Strategy (I) is always better than strategy (C) no matter which of (C) and (I) the opponent uses and its relative advantege increases to a quarter as single shot kill probabilities increase to one but decreases to zero as they go to zero. iii) However, strategy (I) has no advantage over strategy (C) for small values of single shot kill probabilities. In this paper, square duels with strategies (C) and (I) are based on the assumptions that duelists are homogeneous and both duelists of one side fire simultaneously. The problem of relaxing these assumptions and extension of square ($2 \times 2$) duels to more general ($m \times n) duels are now being investigated.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.97-103
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• 2019

An automated signal-acquisition method for the NASA's space geodesy satellite laser ranging (SGSLR) system is described as a selection of two system parameters with specified probabilities. These parameters are the correlation parameter: the minimum received pulse number for a signal-acquisition and the frame time: the minimum time for the correlation parameter. The probabilities specified are the signal-detection and false-acquisition probabilities to distinguish signals from background noise. The steps of parameter selection are finding the minimum set of values by fitting a curve and performing a graph-domain approximation. However, this selection method is inefficient, not only because of repetition of the entire process if any performance values change, such as the signal and noise count rate, but also because this method is dependent upon system specifications and environmental conditions. Moreover, computation is complicated and graph-domain approximation can introduce inaccuracy. In this study, a new method is proposed to select the parameters via a conditional equation derived from characteristics of the signal-detection and false-acquisition probabilities. The results show that this method yields better efficiency and robustness against changing performance values with simplicity and accuracy and can be easily applied to other satellite laser ranging (SLR) systems.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권10호
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• pp.3298-3313
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• 2021

The objective of this study is to estimate the occurrence probabilities of severe accident phenomena based on a fuzzy elicitation technique. Normally, it is difficult to determine these probabilities due to the lack of information on severe accident progression and the highly uncertain values currently in use. In this case, fuzzy set theory (FST) can be best exploited. First, questions were devised for expert elicitation on technical issues of severe accident phenomena. To deal with ambiguities and the imprecision of previously developed (reference) probabilities, fuzzy aggregation methods based on FST were employed to derive the occurrence probabilities of severe accidents via four phases: 1) choosing experts, 2) quantifying weighting factors for the experts, 3) aggregating the experts' opinions, and 4) defuzzifying the fuzzy numbers. In this way, this study obtained expert elicitation results in the form of updated occurrence probabilities of severe accident phenomena in the OPR-1000 plant, after which the differences between the reference probabilities and the newly acquired probabilities using fuzzy aggregation were compared, with the advantages of the fuzzy technique over other approaches explained. Lastly, the impact of applying the updated severe accident probabilities on containment integrity was quantitatively investigated in a Level 2 PSA model.

• 경영과학
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.27-42
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• 1993

Markov chain models can be used to predict the state of the system in the future. We extend the existing Markov chain models in two ways. For the stationary model, we propose a procedure that obtains the transition probabilities by appling the empirical Bayes method, in which the parameters of the prior distribution in the Bayes estimator are obtained on the collaternal micro data. For non-stationary model, we suggest a procedure that obtains a time-varying transition probabilities as a function of the exogenous variables. To illustrate the effectiveness of our extended models, the models are applied to the macro and micro time-series data generated from actual survey. Our stationary model yields reliable parameter values of the prior distribution. And our non-stationary model can predict the variable transition probabilities effectively.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.111-125
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• 1995

Let $F_1$ and $F_2$ be two F ratios with independent numerators and a common denominator. They are known to be positively dependent. The probabilities of simultaneous rejection and conditional rejection are numerically computed for both null and nonnull cases. The probabilities are presented in tables and graphics to show the influence of the seven parameters, the degrees of freedom of the numerators and the denominator, the non-centralities of the numerators, and the two levels of significance of the tests. The values of the correlation coefficient between $F_1$ and $F_2$ are also presented. Finally, a conjecture on the dependence order of the family of distributions of $(F_1, F_2)$ is given.

• 대한화학회지
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• 제19권5호
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• pp.294-303
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• 1975

直線 衝突모형을 써서 三原子 置換反應 $A+B-C{\to}A-B+C$의 反應確率을 全體 에너지의 函數로 計算하였다. 使用한 포텐셜 에너지 亦是 極히 單純한 理想的인 것이다. 세原子의 質量이 모두 같은 경우에 대하여 數値로 結果를 얻어서 더욱 더 간단한 모형을 쓴 다른 硏究者들의 結果와 比較하여 定性的으로 더 나음을 알았다.

• 음성과학
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.41-52
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• 2007

Recent experimental studies have shown that language-users' knowledge of the statistical characteristic of their native language plays a key role in their task performance. One specific instance of this that the current study focuses on is the effect of phonotactic probabilities on speakers' wordlikeness judgment of nonwords. In this paper, I explore the question of whether the judgment of Korean speaking subjects as to the wordlikeness of Korean nonsense words is influenced by the degree of association between two-phoneme sequences in Korean. The current results suggest that the objective measure of correlations (expressed by $r_{\phi}$ values) between an onset consonant and a vowel inside Korean syllables play an important role in Korean speakers' nonword processing. The current results additionally indicate an effect of the correlations of two-phoneme sequences including vowels and coda consonants on nonword processing. Implications of these findings for Korean speakers' learning the correlations between adjacent segments inside the syllable are discussed.

• 물과 미래
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.47-54
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• 1981

우리나라의 주요 도시 서울, 부산, 대구, 광주의 지점강우량에 대하여 확률적인 방법과 M년 최대치법에 의하여 그 특성이 해석되었으며 일본의 해석결과와도 비교되었다. 본 연구에서 얻어진 결과는 다음과 같다. T년확률강우가 N년 동안에 발생하지 않은 확률은 관측치로부터 분석된 값과 비교하여 볼 때 이론치보다 작았으며 일본의 결과보다는 컸다. M년 10분 최대치가 N년 동안에 발생하지 않은 확률의 평균치는 이론치보다 컸으며 M년 1시간 최대치는 이론치보다 작았고 M년 1일 최대치는 이론치와 거의 일치했으며 일본의 경우는 이론치보다 작았다. 상기 결과에 의하여 확률적인 면에서 본다면 M년 최대강우를 설계량으로 택하는 것이 T년 확률강우보다 안전측이라고 생각된다.

• 한국연초학회지
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.51-62
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• 1984

The chemical components of non-blended and blended cigarettes and their smoke have been analyzed to investigate the correlation between them. Some regression of linear equations were obtained based on the simple correlation data(r), for the various smoke components such as tar, nicotine, nitrogen dioxide, steam volatile phenols, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acrolein and hydrogen cyanide. Chi-square tests were carried out to observe the probabilities of the values estimated by the regression of linear equations. The probabilities of the greater values were 0.900-0.999 to tar, nicotine, formaldehyde, acetal dehyde, acrolein, steam volatile phenols, nitrogen dioxide and hydrogen cyanide of the non-blended cigarettes, and 0.900-0.999 to tar, nicotine, nitrogen dioxide, steam volatile phenols and static burning rate (SBR) of the blended cigarettes.