• 제목/요약/키워드: Probabilistic wind power model

검색결과 25건 처리시간 0.023초

태양광발전원을 고려한 전력계통의 신뢰도평가에 관한 기초연구 (A Basic Study on the Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation of Power System Considering Solar/Photovoltaic Cell Generator)

  • 박정제;오량;최재석
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2008년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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    • pp.19-21
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    • 2008
  • Renewable energy resources such as wind, wave, solar, micro hydro, tidal and biomass etc. are becoming importance stage by stage because of considering effect of the environment. Solar energy is one of the most successful sources of renewable energy for the production of electrical energy following wind energy. And, the solar/photovoltaic cell generators can not make two-state model as conventional generators, but should be modeled as multi-state model due to solar radiation random variation. The method of obtaining reliability evaluation index of solar cell generators is different from the conventional generators. This paper presents a basic study on reliability evaluation of power system considering solar cell generators with multi-states.

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우리나라 비중앙급전발전기의 하루전 출력 예측시스템 개발 (Development of One Day-Ahead Renewable Energy Generation Assessment System in South Korea)

  • 이연찬;임진택;오웅진;;최재석;김진수
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제64권4호
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    • pp.505-514
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    • 2015
  • This paper proposes a probabilistic generation assessment model of renewable energy generators(REGs) considering uncertainty of resources, mainly focused on Wind Turbine Generator(WTG) and Solar Cell Generator(SCG) which are dispersed widely in South Korea The proposed numerical analysis method assesses the one day-ahead generation by combining equivalent generation characteristics function and probabilistic distribution function of wind speed(WS) and solar radiation(SR) resources. The equivalent generation functions(EGFs) of the wind and solar farms are established by grouping a lot of the farms appropriately centered on Weather Measurement Station(WMS). First, the EGFs are assessed by using regression analysis method based on typical least square method from the recorded actual generation data and historical resources(WS and SR). Second, the generation of the REGs is assessed by adding the one day-ahead resources forecast, announced by WMS, to the EGFs which are formulated as third order degree polynomials using the regression analysis. Third, a Renewable Energy Generation Assessment System(REGAS) including D/B of recorded actual generation data and historical resources is developed using the model and algorithm predicting one day-ahead power output of renewable energy generators.

풍력발전원과 다개 ESS를 고려한 제주도 계통에서의 신뢰도 평가 (Reliability Evaluation of Power system considering Wind Turbine Generators and Multi-Energy Storage System In JeJu Island)

  • 오웅진;임진택;이연찬;도응우옌대풍;최재석;윤용범;장병훈;조성민
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2015년도 제46회 하계학술대회
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    • pp.473-474
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    • 2015
  • This paper proposes probabilistic reliability evaluation model of power system considering Wind Turbine Generator(WTG) integrated with Energy Storage System(ESS). Monte carlo sample state duration simulation method is used for the evaluation. The power output from WTG units usually fluctuates randomly. Therefore, the power cannot be counted on to continuously satisfy the system load. Although the power output at any time is not controllable, the power output can be utilized when needed if ESS is available. The ESS may make to smooth the fluctuation of the WTG power output. The detail process of power system reliability evaluation considering Multi-ESS cooperated WTG is presented using case study of Jeju island power system in the paper.

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해상풍력발전단지의 해상변전소 변압기 적정 용량에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Adequate Capacity of Substation Transformer for Offshore Wind Farm)

  • 문원식;조아라;허재선;배인수;김재철
    • 조명전기설비학회논문지
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    • 제29권8호
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    • pp.83-89
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    • 2015
  • This study suggests the methodology to decide the number and adequate capacity of substation transformer in a large-scale offshore wind farm (OWF). The recent trend in transformer capacity of offshore substation is analyzed in many European offshore wind farm sites prior to entering the studies. In order to carry out the economic evaluation for the transformer capacity we present the cost models which consist of investment, operation, and expected energy not supplied (EENS) cost as well as the probabilistic wind power model of wind energy that combines the wind speed with wind turbine output characteristics for a exact calculation of energy loss cost. Economic assessment includes sensitivity analysis of parameters which could impact the 400-MW OWF: average wind speed, availability, discount rate, energy cost, and life-cycle.

신재생에너지전원을 고려한 새로운 유효설비예비율 평가방법의 개발 (Development of Methodology of New Effective Installed Reserve Rate considering Renewable Energy Generators)

  • 박정제;최재석
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제59권1호
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    • pp.26-32
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    • 2010
  • This paper proposes a new effective installed reserve rate in order to evaluate reliability of power system considering renewable generators, which include uncertainty of resource supply. It is called EIRR(effective installed reserve rate) in this paper. It is developed with considering capacity credit based on ELCC by using LOLE reliability criterion. While the conventional installed reserve rate index yields over-evaluation reliability of renewable generators, the proposed EIRR describes actual effective installed reserve rate. However, it is not the probabilistic reliability index as like as LOLE or EENS but another deterministic effective reliability index. The proposed EIRR is able to evaluate the realistic contribution to the reliability level for power system considering wind turbine generators and solar cell generators with high uncertainty in resource supply. The case study in model system as like as Jeju power system size presents a possibility that the proposed EIRR can be used practically as a new deterministic reliability index for generation expansion planning or operational planning in future.