• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic risk analysis

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Analysis of Accounts Receivable Aging Using Variable Order Markov Model (가변 마코프 모델을 활용한 매출 채권 연령 분석)

  • Kang, Yuncheol;Kang, Minji;Chung, Kwanghun
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.91-103
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    • 2019
  • An accurate prediction on near-future cash flows plays an important role for a company to attenuate the shortage risk of cash flow by preparing a plan for future investment in advance. Unfortunately, there exists a high level of uncertainty in the types of transactions that occur in the form of receivables in inter-company transactions, unlike other types of transactions, thereby making the prediction of cash flows difficult. In this study, we analyze the trend of cash flow related to account receivables that may arise between firms, by using a stochastic approach. In particular, we utilize Variable Order Markov (VOM) model to predict how future cash flows will change based on cash flow history. As a result of this study, we show that the average accuracy of the VOM model increases about 12.5% or more compared with that of other existing techniques.

Stochastic analysis of the rocking vulnerability of irregular anchored rigid bodies: application to soils of Mexico City

  • Ramos, Salvador;Arredondo, Cesar;Reinoso, Eduardo;Leonardo-Suarez, Miguel;Torres, Marco A.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.71-86
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    • 2021
  • This paper focuses on the development and assessment of the expected damage for the rocking response of rigid anchored blocks, with irregular geometry and non-uniform mass distribution, considering the site conditions and the seismicity of Mexico City. The non-linear behavior of the restrainers is incorporated to evaluate the pure tension and tension-shear failure mechanisms. A probabilistic framework is performed covering a wide range of block sizes, slenderness ratios and eccentricities using physics-based ground motion simulation. In order to incorporate the uncertainties related to the propagation of far-field earthquakes with a significant contribution to the seismic hazard at study sites, it was simulated a set of scenarios using a stochastic summation methods of small-earthquakes records, considered as Empirical Green's Function (EGFs). As Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP), the absolute value of the maximum block rotation normalized by the body slenderness, as a function of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) is adopted. The results show that anchorages are more efficient for blocks with slenderness ratio between two and three, while slenderness above four provide a better stability when they are not restrained. Besides, there is a range of peak intensities where anchored blocks located in soft soils are less vulnerable with respect to those located in firm soils. The procedure used in here allows to take decisions about risk, reliability and resilience assessment of different types of contents, and it is easily adaptable to other seismic environments.

Monitoring and Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Edible Mushrooms (국내 유통 버섯 중 중금속 함량 조사 및 위해성 평가)

  • Kim, Ji-Young;Yoo, Ji-Hyock;Lee, Ji-Ho;Kim, Min-Ji;Kang, Dae-Won;Ko, Hyeon-Seok;Hong, Su-Myeong;Im, Geon-Jae;Kim, Doo-Ho;Jung, Goo-Bok;Kim, Won-Il
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2012
  • BACKGROUND: Many edible mushrooms are known to accumulate high levels of heavy metals. This research was focused on health risk assessment to investigate the mushrooms in Korea, arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb) and mercury (Hg) contaminations in edible mushrooms in cultivated areas were investigated, and health risk was assessed through dietary intake of mushrooms. METHODS AND RESULTS: The heavy metals in mushrooms were analyzed by ICP/MS after acid digestion. Probabilistic health risk were estimated by Monte-Carlo simulation techniques. The average contents of As, Cd, Pb, and Hg were $0.035{\pm}0.042$ mg/kg, $0.017{\pm}0.020$ mg/kg, $0.043{\pm}0.013$ mg/kg, and $0.004{\pm}0.004$ mg/kg, respectively. The results showed that contents of Cd and Pb did not exceed maximum residual levels established by European Uion regulation (Cd 0.20 mg/kg and Pb 0.30 mg/kg). For health risk assessment, estimated intakes in all age populations did not exceed the provisional tolerable daily intake of As and Hg, provisional tolerable monthly intake of Cd, provisional tolerable weekly intake of Pb. The Hazard Index (HI) were ranged from $0.03{\times}10^{-4}{\sim}0.01{\times}10^{-3}$ for As, $0.02{\times}10^{-3}{\sim}0.81{\times}10^{-3}$ for Cd, $0.06{\times}10^{-3}{\sim}0.38{\times}10^{-3}$ for Pb, and $0.08{\times}10^{-4}{\sim}0.14{\times}10^{-3}$ for Hg at general population. CONCLUSION: The HI from the ratio analysis between daily exposure and safety level values was less than 1.0. This results demonstrated that human exposure to heavy metals through dietary intake of mushrooms might not cause adverse effect.

A study on reliability analysis model of the repair and replacement cycle of a building which utilizes Monte Carlo Simulation (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 활용한 건축물 수선교체주기 신뢰성 분석 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Rok;Jung, Young-Han;Son, Jae-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2010
  • This study presented a model that can enable a reliability analysis for the repair and replacement cycle of a building by using background repair and replacement data and expert opinion as foundation data and applying Monte Carlo Simulation. The presented model offers the time of the repair and replacement of building elements for the period of a year, and supports the prediction of repair and replacement and expenses demand in advance while planning the maintenance of a building. In addition, the model will significantly reduce the risks to the building owner with regard to maintenance decisions. In addition, when a person in charge of the maintenance of large-scale building assets is having difficulties making decisions regarding the repair and replacement of existing building elements due to a lack of background data to support a long-term policy on the repair and replacement requirements, an engineering solution that can ensure the adequacy of this is provided. In summary, it can be largely divided into three study results. First, a method of estimating the repair and replacement cycle that can deal with the development of a construction system was developed. Second, a probabilistic methodology that can quantify the risk of the repair and replacement cycle was proposed. Third, the proposed model can be used as a means of supporting designer and constructor in making decisions for the life cycle plan of a building during a construction project.

The Factors Affecting Attitudes Toward HSDPA Service and Intention to Use: A Cross-Cultural Comparison between Asia and Europe (대영향(对影响)HSDPA복무적태도화사용의도적인소적연구(服务的态度和使用意图的因素的研究): 재아주화구주지간적(在亚洲和欧洲之间的)-개과문화비교(个跨文化比较))

  • Jung, Hae-Sung;Shin, Jong-Kuk;Park, Min-Sook;Jung, Hong-Seob;Hooley, Graham;Lee, Nick;Kwak, Hyok-Jin;Kim, Sung-Hyun
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.11-23
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    • 2009
  • HSDPA (High-Speed Downlink Packet Access) is a 3.5-generation asynchronous mobile communications service based on the third generation of W-CDMA. In Korea, it is mainly provided in through videophone service. Because of the diffusion of more powerful and diversified services, along with steep advances in mobile communications technology, consumers demand a wide range of choices. However, because of the variety of technologies, which tend to overflow the market regardless of consumer preferences, consumers feel increasingly confused. Therefore, we should not adopt strategies that focus only on developing new technology on the assumption that new technologies are next-generation projects. Instead, we should understand the process by which consumers accept new forms of technology and devise schemes to lower market entry barriers through strategies that enable developers to understand and provide what consumers really want. In the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use are suggested as the most important factors affecting the attitudes of people adopting new technologies (Davis, 1989; Taylor and Todd, 1995; Venkatesh, 2000; Lee et al., 2004). Perceived usefulness is the degree to which a person believes that a particular technology will enhance his or her job performance. Perceived ease of use is the degree of subjective belief that using a particular technology will require little physical and mental effort (Davis, 1989; Morris and Dillon, 1997; Venkatesh, 2000). Perceived pleasure and perceived usefulness have been shown to clearly affect attitudes toward accepting technology (Davis et al., 1992). For example, pleasure in online shopping has been shown to positively impact consumers' attitudes toward online sellers (Eighmey and McCord, 1998; Mathwick, 2002; Jarvenpaa and Todd, 1997). The perceived risk of customers is a subjective risk, which is distinguished from an objective probabilistic risk. Perceived risk includes a psychological risk that consumers perceive when they choose brands, stores, and methods of purchase to obtain a particular item. The ability of an enterprise to revolutionize products depends on the effective acquisition of knowledge about new products (Bierly and Chakrabarti, 1996; Rothwell and Dodgson, 1991). Knowledge acquisition is the ability of a company to perceive the value of novelty and technology of the outside (Cohen and Levinthal, 1990), to evaluate the outside technology that has newly appeared (Arora and Gambaradella, 1994), and to predict the future evolution of technology accurately (Cohen and Levinthal, 1990). Consumer innovativeness is the degree to which an individual adopts innovation earlier than others in the social system (Lee, Ahn, and Ha, 2001; Gatignon and Robertson, 1985). That is, it shows how fast and how easily consumers adopt new ideas. Innovativeness is regarded as important because it has a significant effect on whether consumers adopt new products and on how fast they accept new products (Midgley and Dowling, 1978; Foxall, 1988; Hirschman, 1980). We conducted cross-national comparative research using the TAM model, which empirically verified the relationship between the factors that affect attitudes - perceived usefulness, ease of use, perceived pleasure, perceived risk, innovativeness, and perceived level of knowledge management - and attitudes toward HSDPA service. We also verified the relationship between attitudes and usage intention for the purpose of developing more effective methods of management for HSDPA service providers. For this research, 346 questionnaires were distributed among 350 students in the Republic of Korea. Because 26 of the returned questionnaires were inconsistent or had missing data, 320 questionnaires were used in the hypothesis tests. In UK, 192 of the total 200 questionnaires were retrieved, and two incomplete ones were discarded, bringing the total to 190 questionnaires used for statistical analysis. The results of the overall model analysis are as follows: Republic of Korea x2=333.27(p=0.0), NFI=0.88, NNFI=0.88, CFI=0.91, IFI=0.91, RMR=0.054, GFI=0.90, AGFI=0.84, UK x2=176.57(p=0.0), NFI=0.88, NNFI=0.90, CFI=0.93, IFI=0.93, RMR=0.062, GFI=0.90, AGFI=0.84. From the results of the hypothesis tests of Korean consumers about the relationship between factors that affect intention to use HSDPA services and attitudes, we can conclude that perceived usefulness, ease of use, pleasure, a high level of knowledge management, and innovativeness promote positive attitudes toward HSDPA mobile phones. However, ease of use and perceived pleasure did not have a direct effect on intention to use HSDPA service. This may have resulted from the fact that the use of video phones is not necessary for everyday life yet. Moreover, it has been shown that attitudes toward HSDPA video phones are directly correlated with usage intention, which means that perceived usefulness, ease of use, pleasure, a high level of knowledge management, and innovativeness. These relationships form the basis of the intention to buy, contributing to a situation in which consumers decide to choose carefully. A summary of the results of the hypothesis tests of European consumers revealed that perceived usefulness, pleasure, risk, and the level of knowledge management are factors that affect the formation of attitudes, while ease of use and innovativeness do not have an effect on attitudes. In particular, with regard to the effect value, perceived usefulness has the largest effect on attitudes, followed by pleasure and knowledge management. On the contrary, perceived risk has a smaller effect on attitudes. In the Asian model, ease of use and perceived pleasure were found not to have a direct effect on intention to use. However, because attitudes generally affect the intention to use, perceived usefulness, pleasure, risk, and knowledge management may be considered key factors in attitude development from which usage intention arises. In conclusion, perceived usefulness, pleasure, and the level of knowledge management have an effect on attitude formation in both Asian and European consumers, and such attitudes shape these consumers' intention to use. Furthermore, the hypotheses that ease of use and perceived pleasure affect usage intention are rejected. However, ease of use, perceived risk, and innovativeness showed different results. Perceived risk had no effect on attitude formation among Asians, while ease of use and innovativeness had no effect on attitudes among Europeans.

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Development of Intelligent Database Program for PSI/ISI Data Management of Nuclear Power Plant (원자력발전소 PSI/ISI 데이터 관리를 위한 지능형 데이터 베이스 프로그램 개발)

  • Park, Un-Su;Park, Ik-Keun;Um, Byong-Guk;Park, Yun-Won;Kang, Suk-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.389-397
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    • 1998
  • For an effective and efficient management of large amounts of preservice/inservice inspection(PSI/ISI) data in nuclear power plants, an intellegent Windows 95-based data management program was developed. This program enables the prompt extraction of previously conducted PSI/ISI conditions and results so that the time-consuming data management, painstaking data processing and analysis in the past are avoided. The program extracts, and the associated remedies. Furthermore, additional inspection data and comments can be easily added or deleted for subsequent PSI/ISI operation. Although the initial version of the program was applied to Kori nuclear power plant, this program can be equally applied to other nuclear power plant. And also this program can be used to offer the fundamental data for application of evaluation data related to fracture mechanics analysis(FMA), probabilistic reliability assessment(PRA) of PSI/ISI results, performance demonstration initiative(PDI) and risk-informed ISI based on probability of detection(POD) information of ultrasonic examination. Besides, the program can be further developed as a unique PSI/ISI data management expert system that can be apart of PSI/ISI data management expert system that can be a part of PSI/ISI Total Support System(TSS) for Korean nuclear power plants.

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An Evaluation Method of Water Supply Reliability for a Dam by Firm Yield Analysis (보장 공급량 분석에 의한 댐의 물 공급 안전도 평가기법 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Ho;Kang, Tae-Uk
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.5 s.166
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    • pp.467-478
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    • 2006
  • Water supply reliability for a dam is defined with a concept of probabilistic reliability. An evaluation procedure of the water supply reliability is shown with an analysis of long term firm yield reliability. The water supply reliabilities of Soyanggang Dam and Chungju Dam were evaluated. To evaluate the water supply reliability, forty one sets of monthly runoff series were generated by SAMS-2000. HEC-5 model was applied to the reservoir simulation to compute the firm yield from a monthly data of time series. The water supply reliability of the firm yield from the design runoff data of Soyanggang Dam is evaluated by 80.5 % for a planning period of 50 years. The water supply reliability of the firm yield from the historic runoff after the dam construction is evaluated by 53.7 %. The firm yield from the design runoff is 1.491 billion $m^3$/yr and the firm yield from the historic runoff is 1.585 billion $m^3$/yr. If the target draft Is 1.585 billion $m^3$/yr, additional water of 0.094 billion $m^3$ could be supplied every year with its risk. From the similar procedures, the firm yield from the design runoff of Chungju Dam is evaluated 3.377 billion $m^3$/yr and the firm yield from the historic runoff is 2.960 billion $m^3$/yr. If the target draft is 3.377 billion $m^3$/yr, water supply insufficiency occurs for all the sets of time series generated. It may result from overestimation of the spring runoff used for design. The procedure shown can be a more objective method to evaluate water supply reliability of a dam.

Optimization of Contaminated Land Investigation based on Different Fitness-for-Purpose Criteria (조사목적별 기준에 부합하는 오염부지 조사방법의 최적화 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Jong-Chun Lee;Michael H. Ramsey
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.191-200
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    • 2003
  • Investigations on the contaminated lands due to heavy metals from mining activities or hydrocarbons from oil spillage for example, should be planned based on specific fitness-for-purpose criteria(FFP criteria). A FFP criterion is site specific or varies with situation, based on which not only the data quality but also the decision quality can be determined. The limiting factors on the qualities can be, for example, the total budget for the investigation, regulatory guidance or expert's subjective fitness-for-purpose criterion. This paper deals with planning of investigation methods that can satisfy each suggested FFP criterion based on economic factors and the data quality. To this aim, a probabilistic loss function was applied to derive the cost effective investigation method that balances the measurement uncertainty, which estimates the degree of the data quality, with the decision quality. In addition, investigation planning methods when the objectives of investigations do not lie in the classification of the land but simply in producing the estimation of the mean concentration of the contaminant at the site(e.g. for the use in risk assessment), were also suggested. Furthermore, the efficient allocation of resources between sampling and analysis was also devised. These methods were applied to the two contaminated sites in the UK to test the validity of each method.

A Study on the Effects of Reading Education Using Book-Coding (북코딩의 독서교육 효과에 관한 연구)

  • Ji, Hyoun-Ah;Cho, Miah
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.145-166
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    • 2021
  • The study was aimed at verifying the effectiveness of Book-Coding reading education as a reader activity of older elementary school children at a time when high-dimensional thinking abilities were formed. To this end, 30 fifth-grade children of N Elementary School in N-si, Gyeonggi-do, comprised of 15 students from a reading education program using Book-Coding, and 15 students from a reading comprehension program, and applied the reading education program over a total of 12 sessions. The main results of the study are summarized as follows. First, when the effects of the convergence reading education program using Book-Coding on the logical thinking ability of the students in the upper grades in the elementary school were analyzed, all the six sub-factors of logical thinking ability, that is, conservation logic, proportional logic, variable controlling logic, probabilistic logic, correlational inference logic, and combinational logic, were proved to have statistically more meaningful difference than the group writing a book report. Second, the analysis result of the influence of the convergence reading education program using Book-Coding on the creativity of the students in the upper grades of the elementary school showed that all the 13 elements of curiosity, persistence, effectiveness, independence, adventurousness, openness, knowledge, imagination, originality, sensitivity, fluency, flexibility, and accuracy were statistically meaningfully different compared to the book report group. Third, when it was analyzed how the convergence reading education program using Book-Coding affected the creative personality of the elementary school students, all the six factors of curiosity, task commitment, independence, awareness of risk, and openness of thinking, and aesthetics were found out to have a statistically more meaningful difference than the group that wrote a book report.

A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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