• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic reliability evaluation

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An Analysis for Delaminations Using Energy Release Rate in CFRP Laminates (에너지 해방률을 이용한 CFRP 적층복합재료의 층간분리 평가)

  • Gang, Gi-Won;Kim, Jeong-Gyu
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.24 no.8 s.179
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    • pp.2115-2122
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    • 2000
  • The understanding of impact-induced delamination is important in safety and reliability of composite structure. In this study, a model for arrest toughness is proposed in consideration of fracture behavior of composite materials. Also, the probabilistic model is proposed to describe the variability of arrest toughness due to the nonhomogeneity of material. For these models, experiments were conducted on the Carbon/Epoxy composite plates with various thickness using the impact hammer. The elastic work factor used in J-Integral is applicable to the evaluation of energy release rate. The fracture behavior can be described by crack arrest concept and the arrest toughness is independent of the delamination size. Additionally, a probabilistic characteristics of arrest toughness is well described by the Weibull distribution function. A variation of arrest toughness increases with specimen thickness.

A Probabilistic Evaluation Method on Maximal Flow of Power Systems (최대전력수송능력의 확률론적 평가법)

  • Jeong, M.H.;Yoo, S.H.;Lee, B.;Song, K.Y.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1998.07c
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    • pp.911-914
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    • 1998
  • This paper presents an algorithm that evaluates the transfer capability of composite power systems using probabilistic approaches. The reliability indices calculated by using probabilistic method are expected maximal flow, expected transfer capability margin, and expected power not supplied. In this paper, a successive linear programming technique is used to evaluate transfer capability named maximal flow. Physical constraints considered in the maximal flow problem are the limits of toad voltage, line overloading, and real & reactive power generation. Numerical results on IEEE RTS show that the proposed algorithm is effective and useful.

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Proposal of Return Period and Basic Wind Speed Map to Estimate Wind Loads for Strength Design in Korea (강도설계용 풍하중 평가를 위한 재현기간과 기본풍속지도의 제안)

  • Ha, Young-Cheol
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2018
  • Strength design wind loads for the wind resistance design of structures shall be evaluated by the product of wind loads calculated based on the basic wind speed with 100 years return period and the wind load factor 1.3 specified in the provisions of load combinations in Korean Building Code (KBC) 2016. It may be sure that the wind load factor 1.3 in KBC(2016) had not been determined by probabilistic method or empirical method using meteorological wind speed data in Korea. In this paper, wind load factors were evaluated by probabilistic method and empirical method. The annual maximum 10 minutes mean wind speed data at 69 meteorological stations during past 40 years from 1973 to 2012 were selected for this evaluation. From the comparison of the results of those two method, it can be found that the mean values of wind load factors calculated both probability based method and empirical based method were similar at all meteorological stations. When target level of reliability index is set up 2.5, the mean value of wind load factors for all regions should be presented about 1.35. When target level of reliability index is set up 3.0, wind load factor should be presented about 1.46. By using the relationship between importance factor(conversion factor for return period) and wind load factor, the return periods for strength design were estimated and expected wind speeds of all regions accounting for strength design were proposed. It can be found that return period to estimate wind loads for strength design should be 500 years and 800 years in according to target level of reliability index 2.5 and 3.0, respectively. The 500 years basic wind speed map for strength design was suggested and it can be used with a wind load factor 1.0.

Development of a New Numerical Analysis Method for Nodal Probabilistic Production Cost Simulation (각 부하지점별 확률론적 발전비용 산정을 위한 수치해석적 방법의 개발)

  • Kim, Hong-Sik;Mun, Seung-Pil;Choe, Jae-Seok;No, Dae-Seok;Cha, Jun-Min
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.50 no.9
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    • pp.431-439
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    • 2001
  • This Paper illustrates a new numerical analysis method using a nodal effective load model for nodal probabilistic production cost simulation of the load point in a composite power system. The new effective load model includes capacities and uncertainties of generators as well as transmission lines. The CMELDC(composite power system effective load duration curve) based on the new effective load model at HLll(Hierarchical Level H) has been developed also. The CMELDC can be obtained from convolution integral processing of the outage capacity probabilistic distribution function of the fictitious generator and the original load duration curve given at the load point. It is expected that the new model for the CMELDC proposed in this study will provide some solutions to many problems based on nodal and decentralized operation and control of an electric power systems under competition environment in future. The CMELDC based on the new model at HLll will extend the application areas of nodal probabilistic production cost simulation, outage cost assessment and reliability evaluation etc. at load points. The characteristics and effectiveness of this new model are illustrated by a case study of MRBTS(Modified Roy Billinton Test System).

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Probabilistic Analysis of Equivalent Uniformly Distributed Live Loads (등가등분포 적재하중의 확률론적 분석)

  • 김상효;정시현;조형근
    • Computational Structural Engineering
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.93-99
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    • 1989
  • Since 1960's, structural engineers have recognized that the inherent random nature of loadings and materials as well as the imperfect structural analysis may be important factors in the structural safety evaluation. Based on the successful developments of the reliability-based structural analysis and design, the design criteria of the standards are recently developed(or modified) in the light of the probabilistic concepts. To develop the probability - based criteria for the domestic buildings, the probabilistic characteristic of loadings acting on structures should be defined first. In this study, therefore, live load data on apartment buildings have been collected and analyzed in systematic manner, and their probabilistic characteristics have been studied. Based on the results, the lifetime extreme values are computed and compared with current design loads. More rational design loads are suggested, which are more consistent in the probabilistic concepts.

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Impact Analysis of Wind Power on Power System Reliability with Electric Vehicles (풍력발전과 전기자동차가 전력계통의 신뢰도에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Dam;Park, Hyeongon;Kwon, Hungyu;Park, Jong-Keun
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.64 no.11
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    • pp.1535-1542
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    • 2015
  • An increasing number of electric vehicles (EVs) in power system affects its reliability in various aspects. Especially under high EV penetration level, new generating units are required to satisfy system's adequacy criterion. Wind power generation is expected to take the major portion of the new units due to environmental and economic issues. In this paper, the system reliability is analyzed using Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) and Expected Energy Not Served (EENS) under each and both cases of increasing wind power generation and EVs. A probabilistic multi-state modeling method of wind turbine generator under various power output for adequate reliability evaluation is presented as well. EVs are modeled as loads under charging algorithm with Time-Of-Use (TOU) rates in order to incorporate EVs into hour-to-hour yearly load curve. With the expected load curve, the impact of EVs on the system adequacy is analyzed. Simulations show the reliability evaluation of increasing wind power capacity and number of EVs. With this method, system operator becomes capable of measuring appropriate wind power capacity to meet system reliability standard.

Evaluation of chassis component reliability considering variation of fatigue data (피로 자료 분산을 고려한 자동차 부품의 신뢰도 해석)

  • Nam G.W;Lee B.C.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.690-693
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, probabilistic distribution of fatigue life of chassis component is determined statistically by applying the design of experiments and the Pearson system. To construct $p-\varepsilon-N$ curve, the case that fatigue data are random variables is attempted. Probabilistic density function(p.d.f) for fatigue life is obtained by design of experiment and using this p.d.f fatigue reliability about any aimed fatigue life can be calculated. Lower control arm and rear torsion bar of chassis component are selected as examples for analysis. Component load histories, which are obtained by multi-body dynamic simulation for Belsian load history, are used. Finite element analysis are performed using commercial software MSC Nastran and fatigue analysis are performed using FE Fatigue. When strain-life curve itself is random variable, probability density function of fatigue life has very little difference from log-normal distribution. And the case of fatigue data are random variables, probability density functions are approximated to Beta distribution. Each p.d.f is verified by Monte-Carlo simulation.

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Evaluation of Chassis Component Reliability Considering Variation of Fatigue Data (피로 자료 분산을 고려한 자동차 부품의 신뢰도 해석)

  • Nam, Gi-Won;Lee, Byung-Chai
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.24 no.2 s.191
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    • pp.110-117
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, probabilistic distribution of chassis component fatigue life is determined statistically by applying the design of experiments and the Pearson system. To construct p - ${\varepsilon}$ - N curve, the case that fatigue data are random variables is attempted. Probabilistic density function (p.d.f) for fatigue life is obtained by the design of experiment and using this p.d.f fatigue reliability, any aimed fatigue life can be calculated. Lower control arm and rear torsion bar of chassis components are selected as examples for analysis. Component load histories which are obtained by multi-body dynamic simulation for Belsian load history are used. Finite element analysis is performed by using commercial software MSC Nastran and fatigue analysis is performed by using FE Fatigue. When strain-life curve itself is random variable, the probability density function of fatigue life has very little difference from log-normal distribution. And the cases of fatigue data are random variables, probability density functions are approximated to Beta distribution. Each p.d.f is verified by Monte-Carlo simulation.

An Edge Removal Algorithm for the Reliability Evaluation of Directed Communication Networks (방향성 통신망의 신뢰도 계정에 관한 에지제거 알고리즘)

  • 임윤구;오영환
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.63-73
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    • 1988
  • In this paper, an algorithm is proposed to evaluate the source-to-terminal reliability, the probability that a source node can communicate with a terminal node, in a probabilistic derected graph. By using Satyanaratana's factoring $theorem^{(7)}$, the original graph can be partitioned into two reduced graphs obtained by contracting and deleting the edge connected to the source node in the probabilistic directed graph. The edge removal proposed in this paper and the general series-parallel reduction can then be applied to the reduced graph. This edge reduction can be applied recursively to the reduced graphs until a source node can be connected to a terminal node by one edge. A computer program which can be applied to evaluating the source-to-terminal reliability in a complex and large network has also been developed.

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Seismic reliability evaluation of steel-timber hybrid shear wall systems

  • Li, Zheng;He, Minjuan;Lam, Frank;Zhou, Ruirui;Li, Minghao
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.289-297
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    • 2017
  • This paper presents seismic performance and reliability evaluation on steel-timber hybrid shear wall systems composed of steel moment resisting frames and infill light frame wood shear walls. Based on experimental observations, damage assessment was conducted to determine the appropriate damage-related performance objectives for the hybrid shear wall systems. Incremental time-history dynamic analyses were conducted to establish a database of seismic responses for the hybrid systems with various structural configurations. The associated reliability indices and failure probabilities were calculated by two reliability methods (i.e., fragility analysis and response surface method). Both methods yielded similar estimations of failure probabilities. This study indicated the greatly improved seismic performance of the steel-timber hybrid shear wall systems with stronger infill wood shear walls. From a probabilistic perspective, the presented results give some insights on quantifying the seismic performance of the hybrid system under different seismic hazard levels. The reliability-based approaches also serve as efficient tools to assess the performance-based seismic design methodology and calibration of relative code provisions for the proposed steel-timber hybrid shear wall systems.