• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.41 no.6
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• pp.763-771
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• 2008

Uncertainties are pervasive in engineering geological problems. Therefore, the presence of uncertainties and their significance in analysis and design of slopes have been recognized. Since the uncertainties cannot be taken into account by the conventional deterministic approaches in slope stability analysis, the probabilistic analysis has been considered as the primary tool for representing uncertainties in mathematical models. However, some uncertainties are caused by incomplete information due to lack of information, and those uncertainties cannot be handled appropriately by the probabilistic approach. For those uncertainties, the theory of fuzzy sets is more appropriate. Therefore, in this study, fuzzy reliability analysis has been proposed in order to deal with the uncertainties which cannot be quantified in the probabilistic analysis due to the limited information. For the practical example, a slope is selected in this study and both the probabilistic analysis and the fuzzy reliability analysis have been carried out for planar failure. In the fuzzy reliability analysis, the dip angle and internal friction angle of discontinuity are considered as triangular fuzzy numbers since the random properties of the variables cannot be obtained completely under the conditions of limited information. In the study, the fuzzy reliability index and the probabilities of failure are evaluated from fuzzy arithmetic and compared to those from the probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo simulation and point estimate method. The analysis results show that the fuzzy reliability analysis is more appropriate for the condition that the uncertainties arise due to incomplete information.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2009.06a
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• pp.1105-1106
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• 2009

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2006.04a
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• pp.473-480
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• 2006

Liquefaction of soil foundation is one of the major seismic damage types of infrastructures. In this paper, deterministic and probabilistic approaches for the evaluation of liquefaction potential are briefly summarized and the risk assessment method is newly proposed using seismic fragility and seismic hazard curves. Currently the deterministic approach is widely used to evaluate the liquefaction potential in Korea. However, the there are a certain degree of uncertainties in the soil properties such as elastic modulus and resistant capacity, therefore the probabilistic approach is more promising. Two types of probabilistic approach are introduced including (1) failure probability for a given design earthquake and (2) the seismic risk of liquefaction of soil for a given service life. The results from different methods show a similar trend, and the liquefaction potential can be more quantitatively evaluated using risk analysis method.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2008.06a
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• pp.128-138
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• 2008

VE of the scripture season enterprises and it respected LCC analyzes from the research which it sees and to use AHP techniques and definite LCC techniques and probabilistic LCC techniques selects the optimum route the case study which it executed. It presented the quality rating model in about the resultant most route lascivious at the time of VE evaluation, in order to select the alternative of optimum AHP techniques which are one in decision-making technique and an evaluation item by weight and a grade it applied the mountaintop it did. Also the definite LCC analyzer law departments of existing together it applied the probabilistic LCC techniques which use Monte Carlo Simulation in about analytical prices and reliability height boil. The economical efficiency was excellent with VE/LCC analytical resultant route and facility size abridgment, the rivers most it will be able to minimize an environmental effect with short distance traverse, the selection this hit preparation LCC which separates from the land use side decreased, the value (V) above 22.0% with the fact that it improves. And, the reliability of the probabilistic LCC analytical resultant analytical results in compliance with Monte Carlo Simulation with 90.3% was very analyzed with the fact that it is a high level.

• 시스템엔지니어링워크숍
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• s.7
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• pp.75-78
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• 2006

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2001.05a
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• pp.169-171
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• 2001

This paper presents a method fer evaluation nodal probabilistic congestion and reliability indices of transmission systems using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Quantitative evaluation of transmission system reliability is very important because successful operation of an electric power system. In the deregulated electricity market depends on transmission system reliability management Monte Carlo methods are often preferable, when complex operating conditions are involved and/or the number of sever events is relatively large. To evaluate the reliability of a real power system, Monte Carlo Methods will be more useful. The characteristics and effectiveness of this methodology are illustrated by the case study using a small test system.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1997.07c
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• pp.1003-1005
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• 1997

To evaluate the quality of a system or its ability to perform a required function, it is necessary to quantify the reliability of that system. The reliability techniques are based on the concept of expected failure rate and average-outage-duration method. For each load point, the expected failure rate, average outage duration and average annual outage time are evaluated. This paper deals with the reliability evaluation for distribution system including the protection relay system. In evaluating the reliability, it suggests a method for the analysis of protective system reliability, that provides a probabilistic measure of the success of the protective apparatus to perform its intended function. The analysis shows the dependency of success on the reliability of many components, and the way this reliability may be enhanced by redundancy.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1989.04a
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• pp.1-4
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• 1989

Since 1960's, structural engineers have recognized that tile inherent random nature of loadings and materials as well as the imperfect structural analysis may be important factors in tile structural safety evaluation. Based on the successful developments of the reliability based structural analysis and design, the design criteria of tile standards are recently developed(or modified) in the light of the probabilistic concepts. To develop the probability-based design criteria for tile domestic buildings, the probabilistic characters of loadings acting on structures should be defined first. In this study, therefore, live load data on apartment buildings have collected and analyzed in a systematic manner, and their probabilistic characteristics have been studied. Based oil the results, the lifetime extreme values are computed and compared with current design loads. More rational design loads are suggested, which are more consistent in the probabilistic concepts.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.167-178
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• 2009

Initial imperfections, such as initial deflection or remaining stress, cause deterioration of buckling strength of structures. The Koiter imperfection sensitivity law has been extended to describe the mechanism of reduction for structures. The extension is twofold: (1) a number of imperfections are considered, and (2) the second order (minor) imperfections are implemented, in addition to the first order (major) imperfections considered in the Koiter law. Yet, in reality, the variation of external loads is dominant over that of imperfection. In this research, probabilistic evaluation of buckling loads against external loads subjected to probabilistic variation is conducted by extending the concept of imperfection sensitivity. A truss arch subjected to dead and live loads is considered as a numerical example. The mechanism of probabilistic variation of buckling strength of this arch is described by the proposed method, and its reliability is evaluated.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.331-338
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• 2022

Face stability analyses provides the most probable failure mechanisms and the understanding about parameters that need to be considered for the evaluation of ground movements caused by tunneling. After the Upper Bound Method (UBM) solution which can consider the influence of seepage forces and depth-dependent effective cohesion is verified with the numerical experiments, the probabilistic model is proposed to calculate the unbiased limiting tunnel collapse pressure. A reliability analysis of a shallow circular tunnel driven by a pressurized shield in a frictional and cohesive soil is presented to consider the inherent uncertainty in the input parameters and the proposed model. The probability of failure that exceeding a specified applied pressure at the tunnel face is estimated. Sensitivity and importance measures are computed to identify the key parameters and random variables in the model.