• 제목/요약/키워드: Probabilistic reliability evaluation

검색결과 169건 처리시간 0.027초

S/W 안전성을 위한 분석기법 조합과 개발 프로세스 평가에 대한 연구 (A Study on the Analytic Technique Combination and Evaluation of Development Process for Software Safety)

  • 이영수;안진;하승태;조우식;한찬희
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2006년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.1468-1476
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    • 2006
  • The goal of this thesis is to support safety and reliability characteristics of software intensive critical systems. The verification method developed is innovative from current state of the art in what concerns the verification viewpoint adopted: focusing on software faults, and not, like many other approaches purely on fulfilling functional requirements. As a first step and based on a number of well defined criteria a comparison was made of available literature in the area of static non formal non probabilistic software fault removal techniques. But, None of the techniques evaluated fulfilled all criteria set in isolation. Therefore a new technique was developed based on a combination of two existing techniques: the FMEA and FTA. These two techniques complement each other very well. It is possible to integrate both techniques with commonly used techniques at system level. The resulting new technique can be shown to combine nearly all aspects of existing fault removal techniques.

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Seismic fragility assessment of isolated structures by using stochastic response database

  • Eem, Seung-Hyun;Jung, Hyung-Jo
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제14권5호
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    • pp.389-398
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    • 2018
  • The seismic isolation system makes a structure isolated from ground motions to protect the structure from seismic events. Seismic isolation techniques have been implemented in full-scale buildings and bridges because of their simplicity, economic effectiveness, inherent stability and reliability. As for the responses of an isolated structure due to seismic events, it is well known that the most uncertain aspects are the seismic loading itself and structural properties. Due to the randomness of earthquakes and uncertainty of structures, seismic response distributions of an isolated structure are needed when evaluating the seismic fragility assessment (or probabilistic seismic safety assessment) of an isolated structure. Seismic response time histories are useful and often essential elements in its design or evaluation stage. Thus, a large number of non-linear dynamic analyses should be performed to evaluate the seismic performance of an isolated structure. However, it is a monumental task to gather the design or evaluation information of the isolated structure from too many seismic analyses, which is impractical. In this paper, a new methodology that can evaluate the seismic fragility assessment of an isolated structure is proposed by using stochastic response database, which is a device that can estimate the seismic response distributions of an isolated structure without any seismic response analyses. The seismic fragility assessment of the isolated nuclear power plant is performed using the proposed methodology. The proposed methodology is able to evaluate the seismic performance of isolated structures effectively and reduce the computational efforts tremendously.

Evaluation of Dorim-Goh bridge using ambient trucks through short-period structural health monitoring system

  • Kaloop, Mosbeh R.;Hwang, Won Sup;Elbeltagi, Emad;Beshr, Ashraf;Hu, Jong Wan
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제69권3호
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    • pp.347-359
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    • 2019
  • This paper aims to evaluate the behavior of Dorim-Goh bridge in Seoul, Korea, under static and dynamic loads effects by ambient trucks. The prestressed concrete (PSC) girders and reinforcement concrete (RC) slab of the bridge are evaluated and assessed. A short period monitoring system is designed which comprises displacement, strain and accelerometer sensors to measure the bridge performance under static and dynamic trucks loads. The statistical analysis is used to assess the static behavior of the bridge and the wavelet analysis and probabilistic using Weibull distribution are used to evaluate the frequency and reliability of the dynamic behavior of the bridge. The results show that the bridge is safe under static and dynamic loading cases. In the static evaluation, the measured neutral axis position of the girders is deviated within 5% from its theoretical position. The dynamic amplification factor of the bridge girder and slab are lower than the design value of that factor. The Weibull shape parameters are decreased, it which means that the bridge performance decreases under dynamic loads effect. The bridge girder and slab's frequencies are higher than the design values and constant under different truck speeds.

확률적 위험도 분석 모형을 이용한 아파트 재건축사업의 수익성예측모델 개발 (Development of Profitability-forecasting Model for Apartment Reconstruction Projects using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis)

  • 우광민;이학기
    • 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건설관리학회 2007년도 정기학술발표대회 논문집
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    • pp.54-59
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    • 2007
  • 현재까지 아파트 재건축사업은 추진 의사결정과 관련한 확정된 지표나 기준이 없이 막연한 수익성에 대한 기대를 토대로 시행되어 왔으며, 사업시행과정에서 직면하게 되는 제반 위험에 대해 경험적으로 대응하여 왔다. 재건축조합이나 시공예정회사들이 관리처분계획을 통해 수익성을 비롯한 사업추진 의사결정과 관련한 정보를 제공하고 있으나, 결정론적 분석을 통한 단순한 예측에 불과하여 재건축시행 과정상의 유동적인 상황에서 예측결과가 자주 변경됨에 따라 결과를 신뢰하기 어려운 한계를 갖고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 재건축사업의 수익성에 영향을 미치는 변수들을 확률적으로 평가하여 수익과 위험을 동시에 분석하는 수익성예측모델을 개발하고, 사례연구를 통해 개발모델의 적합성을 검증하여 기존의 결정론적 접근방식이 갖는 한계를 극복하고자 한다.

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쇄석다짐말뚝의 극한지지력 데이터베이스 구축 및 통계학적 분석 (Constructing Database and Probabilistic Analysis for Ultimate Bearing Capacity of Aggregate Pier)

  • 박준모;김범주;장연수
    • 한국지반공학회논문집
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    • 제30권8호
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    • pp.25-37
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    • 2014
  • 국내 외 하중저항계수설계법의 저항계수 보정 시 수집된 데이터베이스의 신뢰성을 향상시키기 위하여 저항편향계수 산정 단계에서 저항편향치의 ${\pm}2{\sigma}$ 범위의 데이터만을 선택하거나 가정된 확률분포 검정을 만족하도록 꼬리(tail)부분의 데이터를 제거하는 방법을 적용하고 있다. 그러나 이들 방법에서는 데이터베이스 내에 우연히 포함된 저품질의 데이터를 확인할 수 없는 단점이 발견되었다. 본 연구에서는 정재하시험의 품질, 원지반의 공학적 특성, 쇄석다짐말뚝의 제원 등의 품질기준을 이용하여 데이터베이스 구축 단계에서 수행할 수 있는 품질평가법을 제안하였으며, 국내 외 문헌 및 정재하시험 보고서로부터 65개소의 정재하시험 데이터를 수집하여 데이터베이스의 구축 및 품질평가를 수행하였다. 데이터베이스의 품질 평가 상태에 따른 저항편향계수와 변동계수, 저항계수를 비교한 결과, 기존의 데이터베이스 처리과정과 품질평가법을 병행할 경우에 저항편향계수의 불확실성이 감소되며, 신뢰도 높은 LRFD 저항계수 보정에 효과적인 것으로 판단된다.

이동최소자승근사법을 이용한 개선된 신뢰도 기반 최적설계 (An Improved Reliability-Based Design Optimization using Moving Least Squares Approximation)

  • 강수창;고현무
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제29권1A호
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2009
  • 기존의 구조물의 설계에서는 안전성 및 경제성 등을 향상시키기 위해서 시방서에 명시된 설계지침을 제약조건으로 하여 확정론적 최적설계를 수행하는 것이 일반적이다. 하지만, 구조물의 설계에는 본질적으로 재료성질, 작용하중 및 시공오차 등의 불확실성이 내포되어 있으며, 이러한 불확실성과 경제성을 동시에 고려한 설계가 보다 더 합리적인 설계라 할 수 있다. 기존의 확정론적 최적설계에서는 이러한 불확실성을 고려하기 위하여 결정론적인 안전율을 도입하여 설계하지만, 이러한 경우 각 한계상태 및 파괴모드에 대한 일관된 안전성 및 신뢰도 수준을 확보하지 못한다. 최근에 이러한 불확실성 및 경제성을 동시에 고려하는 신뢰도 기반 최적설계에 대한 연구가 수행되고 있다. 신뢰도 기반 최적설계는 확률구속조건을 평가하는 방법에 따라 RIA(reliability index approach) 및 PMA(performance measure approach)로 구분된다. 일반적으로 PMA가 RIA 보다 안정성 및 효율성 측면에서 더 우수하다는 비교연구가 수행된 바 있다. 하지만 아직도 대형구조해석을 필요로 하는 경우에는 계산비용이 과다하여 최적설계가 불가능하므로 보다 개선된 신뢰도 기반 최적설계 알고리즘이 필요하다고 할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 계산비용을 줄이면서도 안정적으로 수렴하는 개선된 신뢰도 기반 최적설계 알고리즘을 제안한다. PMA에 적합한 응답면 기법을 개발하였으며, 한계상태식의 근사는 이동최소자승근사법을 사용하였다. 이로부터 더 적은 표본점의 추출만으로 더욱더 정확한 응답면 함수를 얻게 되어 정확도 및 효율성을 개선할 수 있었다. 수학적 문제 및 10-bar truss 문제에 대하여 제안된 방법을 적용한 결과, 수렴성 및 효율성 측면에서 우수한 성능을 보여줌을 확인하였다.

배전시스템 전기설비 구성에 따른 확률론적 전력품질의 정량적 평가기법 개발 (The Development of Probabilistic Power Quality Evaluation Method for Electrical Distribution System)

  • 김용하;이성준;우성민;임현성;손승기;구민서
    • 조명전기설비학회논문지
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    • 제21권8호
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    • pp.34-43
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    • 2007
  • 본 연구에서는 배전시스템 안정성의 요소라 할 수 있는 고조파, 전압변동, Sag/Swell, 신뢰도의 측면에서 배전시스템을 전력품질 측면에서 안정성을 종합적으로 평가하는 방법을 개발하였다. 시스템이 전력품질의 측면에서 얼마나 안정적인가를 정량적으로 평가하기 위해서 AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process)를 사용하여 종합 전력품질 통합지수를 산정하는 방법을 제안하였다. 또한 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 수행함으로서 사고를 고려한 배전계통의 안정성을 평가하였다.

Reliable Gossip Zone for Real-Time Communications in Wireless Sensor Networks

  • Li, Bijun;Kim, Ki-Il
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.244-250
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    • 2011
  • Gossip is a well-known protocol which was proposed to implement broadcast service with a high reliability in an arbitrarily connected network of sensor nodes. The probabilistic techniques employed in gossip have been used to address many challenges which are caused by flooding in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). However, very little work has yet been done on real-time wireless sensor networks which require not only highly reliable packets reception but also strict time constraint of each packet. Moreover, the unique energy constraining feature of sensor makes existing solutions unsuitable. Combined with unreliable links, redundant messages overhead in real-time wireless sensor networks is a new challenging issue. In this paper, we introduce a Reliable Gossip Zone, a novel fine-tailored mechanism for real-time wireless sensor networks with unreliable wireless links and low packet redundancy. The key idea is the proposed forwarding probability algorithm, which makes forwarding decisions after the realtime flooding zone is set. Evaluation shows that as an oracle broadcast service design, our mechanism achieves significantly less message overhead than traditional flooding and gossip protocols.

Development of a Computer Code for Low-and Intermediate-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Safety Assessment

  • Park, J.W.;Kim, C.L.;Lee, E.Y.;Lee, Y.M.;Kang, C.H.;Zhou, W.;Kozak, M.W.
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.41-48
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    • 2004
  • A safety assessment code, called SAGE (Safety Assessment Groundwater Evaluation), has been developed to describe post-closure radionuclide releases and potential radiological doses for low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste (LILW) disposal in an engineered vault facility in Korea. The conceptual model implemented in the code is focused on the release of radionuclide from a gradually degrading engineered barrier system to an underlying unsaturated zone, thence to a saturated groundwater zone. The radionuclide transport equations are solved by spatially discretizing the disposal system into a series of compartments. Mass transfer between compartments is by diffusion/dispersion and advection. In all compartments, radionuclides ate decayed either as a single-member chain or as multi-member chains. The biosphere is represented as a set of steady-state, radionuclide-specific pathway dose conversion factors that are multiplied by the appropriate release rate from the far field for each pathway. The code has the capability to treat input parameters either deterministically or probabilistically. Parameter input is achieved through a user-friendly Graphical User Interface. An application is presented, which is compared against safety assessment results from the other computer codes, to benchmark the reliability of system-level conceptual modeling of the code.

THE APPLICATION OF PSA TECHNIQUES TO THE VITAL AREA IDENTIFICATION OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

  • HA JAEJOO;JUNG WOO SIK;PARK CHANG-KUE
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제37권3호
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    • pp.259-264
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents a vital area identification (VAI) method based on the current fault tree analysis (FTA) and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) techniques for the physical protection of nuclear power plants. A structured framework of a top event prevention set analysis (TEPA) application to the VAI of nuclear power plants is also delineated. One of the important processes for physical protection in a nuclear power plant is VAI that is a process for identifying areas containing nuclear materials, structures, systems or components (SSCs) to be protected from sabotage, which could directly or indirectly lead to core damage and unacceptable radiological consequences. A software VIP (Vital area Identification Package based on the PSA method) is being developed by KAERI for the VAI of nuclear power plants. Furthermore, the KAERI fault tree solver FTREX (Fault Tree Reliability Evaluation eXpert) is specialized for the VIP to generate the candidates of the vital areas. FTREX can generate numerous MCSs for a huge fault tree with the lowest truncation limit and all possible prevention sets.