• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.63-74
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• 2015

This study investigated the influence of probabilistic variability in stiffness and nonlinearity of soil on response of nuclear power plant (NPP) structure subjected to seismic loads considering the soil-structure interaction (SSI). Both deterministic and probabilistic methods have been employed to evaluate the dynamic responses of the structure. For the deterministic method, $SRP_{min}$ method given in USNRC SRP 3.7.2(2013) (envelope of responses using three shear modulus profiles of lower bound($G_{LB}$), best estimate($G_{BE}$) and upper bound($G_{UB}$)) and $SRP_{max}$ method (envelope of responses by more than three ground profiles within range of $G_{LB}{\leq}G{\leq}G_{UB}$) have been considered. The probabilistic method uses the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) that can capture probabilistic feature of soil stiffness defined by the median and the standard deviation. These analysis results indicated that 1) number of samples shall be larger than 60 to apply the probabilistic approach in SSI analysis and 2) in-structure response spectra using equivalent linear soil profiles considering the nonlinear behavior of soil medium can be larger than those based on low-strain soil profiles.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.159-167
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• 2004

The compressive strength of concrete is a criterion to produce concrete. However, the tests on the compressive strength are complicated and time-consuming. More importantly, it is too late to make improvement even if the test result does not satisfy the required strength, since the test is usually performed at the 28th day after the placement of concrete at the construction site. Therefore, strength prediction before the placement of concrete is highly desirable. This study presents the probabilistic technique for predicting the compressive strength of concrete on the basis of concrete mix proportions. The estimation of the strength is based on the probabilistic neural network which is an effective tool for pattern classification problem and gives a probabilistic result, not a deterministic value. In this study, verifications for the applicability of the probabilistic neural networks were performed using the test results of concrete compressive strength. The estimated strengths are also compared with the results of the actual compression tests. It has been found that the present methods are very efficient and reasonable in predicting the compressive strength of concrete probabilistically.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.295-307
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• 2000

Probabilistic analysis is a powerful method to quantify variability and uncertainty common in engineering geology fields. In rock slope engineering, the uncertainty and variation may be in the form of scatter in orientations and geometries of discontinuities, and also test results. However, in the deterministic analysis, the factor of safety which is used to ensure stability of rock slopes, is based on the fixed representative values for each parameter without a consideration of the scattering in data. For comparison, in the probabilistic analysis, these discontinuity parameters are considered as random variables, and therefore, the reliability and probability theories are utilized to evaluate the possibility of slope failure. Therefore, in the probabilistic analysis, the factor of safety is considered as a random variable and replaced by the probability of failure to measure the level of slope stability. In this study, the stochastic properties of discontinuity parameters are evaluated and the stability of rock slope is analyzed based on the random properties of discontinuity parameters. Then, the results between the deterministic analysis and the probabilistic analysis are compared and the differences between the two analysis methods are explained.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.25-35
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• 2017

Liquefaction is one of the major seismic damage, and several methods have been developed to evaluate the possibility of liquefaction. Recently, a probabilistic approach has been studied to overcome the drawback of deterministic approaches, and to consider the uncertainties of soil properties. In this study, the spatial variability of cone penetration resistance was evaluated using CPT data from three locations having different variability characteristics to perform the probabilistic analysis considering the spatial variability of soil properties. Then the random fields of cone penetration resistance considering the spatial variability of each point were generated, and a probabilistic analysis of liquefaction induced settlement was carried out through CPT-based liquefaction evaluation method. As a result, the uncertainty of soil properties can be overestimated when the spatial variability is not considered, and significant probabilistic differences can occur up to about 30% depending on the allowable settlement.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.223-226
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• 2007

지식 발견 (knowledge discovery)의 관점에서, 단기간 동안 취득된 데이터 패턴을 학습하고자 하는 경우 데이터에 비일관적인(inconsistent) 패턴이 포함되어 있다면 확률적 퍼지 룰(probabilistic fuzzy rule) 기반의 지식 표현 방법 및 적절한 학습 알고리즘을 이용하여 효과적으로 다룰 수 있다. 하지만 장기간 동안 지속적으로 얻어진 데이터 패턴을 다루고자 하는 경우, 데이터가 시변(time-varying) 특성을 가지고 있으면 기존에 추출된 지식을 변화된 데이터에 활용하기 어렵게 된다. 때문에 이러한 데이터를 다루는 학습 시스템에는 패턴의 변화에 맞추어 갈 수 있는 지속적인 적응력(adaptivity)이 요구된다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 적응성의 측면을 고려하여 평생 학습(life-long learning)의 관점 에 서 확률적 퍼지 룰 기반의 학습 시스템에 적용될 수 있는 두 가지 형태의 적응 방법에 대해서 설명하도록 한다.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.67 no.4
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• pp.505-511
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• 2018

Long term capacity expansion planning has to be carried out to satisfy pre-defined system reliability criterion. For purpose of assessing system reliability, probabilistic simulation technique has been widely adopted. However, the way how to approximate generator outage, especially maintenance outage, in probabilistic simulation scheme can significantly influence on reliability assessment. Therefore, in this paper, 3 different maintenance approximation methods are applied to investigate the quantitative impact of maintenance approximation method on long term capacity expansion planning.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1991.10a
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• pp.57-62
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• 1991

For the purpose of developing the method for efficiently calculating the design sensitivity and the reliability for the complicated structure such as ship structure, the probabilistic finite element method is introduced to formulate the deterministic design sensitivity analysis method and incorporated with the second moment reliability methods such as MVFOSM, AFOSM and SORM. Also, the probabilistic design sensitivity analysis needed in the reliability-based design is performed. The reliability analysis is carried out for the initial yielding failure, in which the derivative derived in the deterministic desin sensitivity is used. The present PFEM-based reliability method shows good agreement with Monte Carlo method in terms with the variance of response and the associated probability of failure even at the first or first few iteration steps. The probabilistic design sensitivity analysis evaluates explicitly the contribution of each random variable to probability of failure. Further, the reliability index variation can be easily predicted by the variation of the mean and the variance of the random variables.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.782-804
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• 2011

In video-based recognition systems, stationary cameras are used to monitor an area of interest. These systems focus on a segmentation of the foreground in the video stream and the recognition of the events occurring in that area. The usual approach to discriminating the foreground from the video sequence is background subtraction. This paper presents a novel background subtraction method based on a probabilistic approach. We represent the posterior probability of the foreground based on the current image and all past images and derive an updated method. Furthermore, we present an efficient fusion method for the color and edge information in order to overcome the difficulties of existing background subtraction methods that use only color information. The suggested method is applied to synthetic data and real video streams, and its robust performance is demonstrated through experimentation.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.453-464
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• 2001

A commercial nuclear power station contains at least tow emergency diesel generators(EDG) to control the risk of severe core damage during station blackout accidents. Therefore, the reliability of the EDG's to start and load-run on demand must be maintained at a sufficiently high level. Probabilistic safety assessments(PSA) are increasingly being used to quantify the public risk of operating potentially hazardous systems such as nuclear power reactors. In this paper, to perform PSA, we will introduce three different types of data and use Bayes procedure to estimate the error rate of nuclear power plant EDG, and using practical examples, illustrate which method is more reasonable in our situation.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.23 no.12 s.189
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• pp.72-79
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• 2006

Vibration of a non-linear system under random parametric excitations was evaluated by probabilistic methods. The non-linear characteristic terms of a system structure were quasi-linearized and excitation terms were remained as they were An analytical method where the square mean of error was minimized was used An alternative method was an energy method where the damping energy and restoring energy of the linearized system were equalized to those of the original non-linear system. The numerical results were compared with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. The comparison showed the results obtained by Monte Carlo simulation located between those by the analytical method and those by the energy method.