• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.721-738
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to create landslide vulnerability using frequency ratio (FR) and evidential belief functions (EBF) model which are two methods of probability model and to select appropriate model for each region through comparison of results in Sacheon-myeon and Jumunjin-eup of Gangneung. 762 locations in Sacheon-myeon and 548 landscapes in Jeonju-eup were constructed based on the interpretation of aerial photographs. Half of each landslide point was randomly selected for modeling and remaining landslides were used for verification purposes. Twenty landslide-inducing factors classified into five categories such as topographic elements, hydrological elements, soil maps (1:5,000), forest maps (1:5,000), and geological maps (1:25,000) were considered for the preparation of landslide vulnerability in the study. The relationship between landslide occurrence and landslide inducing factors was analyzed using FR and EBF models. The two models were then verified using the AUC (curve under area) method. According to the results of verification, the FR model (AUC = 81.2%) was more accurate than the EBF model (AUC = 78.9%) at Jeonjun-eup. In the Sacheon-myeon, the EBF model (AUC = 83.6%) was more accurate than the FR model (AUC = 81.6%). Verification results show that FR model and EBF model have high accuracy with accuracy of around 80%.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.799-805
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• 2016

Background: There is no standard treatment for patients with platinum-resistant or refractory epithelial ovarian cancer. Single agent chemotherapies have evidence of more efficacy and less toxicity than combination therapy. Most are very expensive, with appreciable toxicity and minimal survival. Since it is difficult to make comparison between outcomes, economic analysis of single-agent chemotherapy regimens and best supportive care may help to make decisions about an appropriate management for the affected patients. Objective: To evaluate the cost effectiveness of second-line chemotherapy compared with best supportive care for patients with platinum-resistant or refractory epithelial ovarian cancer. Materials and Methods: A Markov model was used to estimate the effectiveness and total costs associated with treatments. The hypothetical patient population comprised women aged 55 with platinum-resistant or refractory epithelial ovarian cancer. Four types of alternative treatment options were evaluated: 1) gemcitabine followed by BSC; 2) pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD) followed by BSC; 3) gemcitabine followed by topotecan; and 4) PLD followed by topotecan. Baseline comparator of alternative treatments was BSC. Time horizon of the analysis was 2 years. Health care provider perspective and 3% discount rate were used to determine the costs of medical treatment in this study. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) were used to measure the treatment effectiveness. Treatment effectiveness data were derived from the literature. Costs were calculated from unit cost treatment of epithelial ovarian cancer patients at various stages of disease in King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital (KCMH) in the year 2011. Parameter uncertainty was tested in probabilistic sensitivity analysis by using Monte Carlo simulation. One-way sensitivity analysis was used to explore each variable's impact on the uncertainty of the results. Results: Approximated life expectancy of best supportive care was 0.182 years and its total cost was 26,862 Baht. All four alternative treatments increased life expectancy. Life expectancy of gemcitabine followed by BSC, PLD followed by BSC, gemcitabine followed by topotecan and PLD followed by topotecan was 0.510, 0.513, 0.566, and 0.570 years, respectively. The total cost of gemcitabine followed by BSC, PLD followed by BSC, gemcitabine followed by topotecan and PLD followed by topotecan was 113,000, 124,302, 139,788 and 151,135 Baht, respectively. PLD followed by topotecan had the highest expected quality-adjusted life-years but was the most expensive of all the above strategies. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of gemcitabine followed by BSC, PLD followed by BSC, gemcitabine followed by topotecan and PLD followed by topotecan was 344,643, 385,322, 385,856, and 420,299 Baht, respectively. Conclusions: All of the second-line chemotherapy strategies showed certain benefits due to an increased life-year gained compared with best supportive care. Moreover, gemcitabine as second-line chemotherapy followed by best supportive care in progressive disease case was likely to be more effective strategy with less cost from health care provider perspective. Gemcitabine was the most cost-effective treatment among all four alternative treatments. ICER is only an economic factor. Treatment decisions should be based on the patient benefit.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.1-17
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• 2009

E-Catalogs which describe products or services are one of the most important data for the electronic commerce. E-Catalogs are created, updated, and removed in order to keep up-to-date information in e-Catalog database. However, when the number of catalogs increases, information integrity is violated by the several reasons like catalog duplication and abnormal classification. Catalog search, duplication checking, and automatic classification are important functions to utilize e-Catalogs and keep the integrity of e-Catalog database. To implement these functions, probabilistic models that use statistics of index words extracted from e-Catalogs had been suggested and the feasibility of the methods had been shown in several papers. However, even though these functions are used together in the e-Catalog management system, there has not been enough consideration about how to share common data used for each function and how to effectively manage statistics of index words. In this paper, we suggest a method to implement these three functions by using simple SQL supported by relational database management system. In addition, we use materialized views to reduce the load for implementing an application that manages statistics of index words. This brings the efficiency of managing statistics of index words by putting database management systems optimize statistics updating. We showed that our method is feasible to implement three functions and effective to manage statistics of index words with empirical evaluation.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.17 no.2 s.52
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• pp.163-176
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• 2007

Landslides which is one of the major natural hazard is defined as a mass movement of weathered material rock and debris due to gravity and can be triggered by complex mechanism. It causes enormous property damages and losses of human lift directly and indirectly. In order to mitigate landslide risk effectively, a new method is required to develope for better understanding of landslide risk based on the damaged cost produce, investment priority data, etc. In this study, we suggest a new evaluation method for slope stability using risk analysis. 30 slopes including 10 stable slopes, 10 slopes of possible failure and 10 failed slopes along the national and local roads are examined. Risk analysis comprises the hazard analysis and the consequence analysis. Risk scores evaluated by risk analysis show very clear boundaries for each category and are the highest for the failed slopes and the lowest for the stable slopes. The evaluation method for slope stability suggested by this research may define the condition and stability of slope more clearly than other methods suggested by others.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.89-99
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• 2000

To cope with the limits of conventional O-D trip matrix collecting methods, several approaches have been developed. One of them is bilevel Programming method Proposed by Yang(1995), which uses Sensitivity Analysis Based(SAB) algorithm to solve Generalized Least Square(GLS) problem. However, the SAB a1gorithm has revealed two critical short-comings. The first is that when there exists a significant difference between target O-D matrix and true O-D matrix, SAB algorithm may not produce correct solution. This stems from the heavy dependance on the historical O-D information, in special when gravel Patterns are dramatically changed. The second is the assumption of iterative linear approximation to original Problem. Because of the approximation, SAB algorithm has difficulty in converging to Perfect Stackelberg game condition. So as to avoid the Problems. we need a more robust and stable solution method. The main purpose of this Paper is to show the problem of the dependency of Previous models and to Propose an alternative solution method to handle it. The Problem of O-D matrix estimation is intrinsically nonlinear and nonconvex. thus it has multiple solutions. Therefore it is necessary to require a method for searching globa1 solution. In this paper, we develop a solution algorithm combined with genetic algorithm(GA) , which is widely used as probabilistic global searching method To compare the efficiency of the algorithm, SAB algorithm suggested by Yang et al. (1992,1995) is used. From the results of numerical example, the Proposed algorithm is superior to SAB algorithm irrespective of travel patterns.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.20
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• pp.8993-9004
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• 2014

Background: The incidence rate and the treatment costs of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are high, especially in Thailand. Previous studies indicated that early detection by a surveillance program could help by down-staging. This study aimed to compare the costs and health outcomes associated with the introduction of a HCC surveillance program with no program and to estimate the budget impact if the HCC surveillance program were implemented. Materials and Methods: A cost utility analysis using a decision tree and Markov models was used to compare costs and outcomes during the lifetime period based on a societal perspective between alternative HCC surveillance strategies with no program. Costs included direct medical, direct non-medical, and indirect costs. Health outcomes were measured as life years (LYs), and quality adjusted life years (QALYs). The results were presented in terms of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in Thai THB per QALY gained. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were applied to investigate parameter uncertainties. Budget impact analysis (BIA) was performed based on the governmental perspective. Results: Semi-annual ultrasonography (US) and semi-annual ultrasonography plus alpha-fetoprotein (US plus AFP) as the first screening for HCC surveillance would be cost-effective options at the willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of 160,000 THB per QALY gained compared with no surveillance program (ICER=118,796 and ICER=123,451 THB/QALY), respectively. The semi-annual US plus AFP yielded more net monetary benefit, but caused a substantially higher budget (237 to 502 million THB) than semi-annual US (81 to 201 million THB) during the next ten fiscal years. Conclusions: Our results suggested that a semi-annual US program should be used as the first screening for HCC surveillance and included in the benefit package of Thai health insurance schemes for both chronic hepatitis B males and females aged between 40-50 years. In addition, policy makers considered the program could be feasible, but additional evidence is needed to support the whole prevention system before the implementation of a strategic plan.

• Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.9-20
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• 1989

It is important to enhance the safety of ship structures as much as possible in order to prevent the disastrous collapse of structures. In fact, the strength problem of structures is closely related with the safety problem of structures. Recently, the direct calculation method using a rational approach based on the first principle is implemented into the structural design process instead of adopting empirical approach based on the rules. The structural designer have shown increased concern with the problem of adequacy of conventional design method based on the safety factor since it does not fully take into account some degree of variability of the applied loads on and the strength of ship structures. To deal with the analysis of structures effectively, it is necessary to have three stages being equally treated. The first one is load analysis, second one response analysis, third one safety analysis. For marine structures, most of research effort has been however put into the first and second stages. The third stage is normally done by simple procedures. Hence, the various probabilistic methods are compared in order to establish the reliability analysis techniques for ship structures. As a result, the advanced level 2 method is selected as a most effective and accurate reliability method. The validity of this method is further demonstrated by comparing the results with the conventional method for the problem of the longitudinal strength of hull girder of Ro-Ro ship.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.254-260
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• 2017

The service life of civil infrastructure needs to be maintained or extended through appropriate inspections and maintenance planning, which results from the optimization process. A multi-objective optimization process can lead to more rational and flexible trade-off solutions rather than a single-objective optimization for the service life management of civil infrastructure. Recent investigations on the service life management of civil infrastructure were generally based on minimizing the life-cycle cost analysis and maximizing the structural performance. Various objectives for service life management have been developed using novel probabilistic concepts and methods over the last few decades. On the other hand, an increase in the number of objectives in a multi-objective optimization problem can lead to difficulties in computational efficiency, visualization, and decision making. These difficulties can be overcome using the objective reduction approach to identify the redundant and essential objectives. As a result, the efficiency in computational efforts, visualization, and decision making can be improved. In this paper, the multi-objective optimization using the objective reduction approach was applied to the service life management of concrete bridges. The results showed that four initial objectives can be reduced by two objectives for the optimal service life management.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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• v.9B no.5
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• pp.625-634
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• 2002

In this paper, we conducted various experiments with Bayesian networks in order to analyze clinical data of infertility patients. With these experiments, we tried to find out inter-dependencies among important factors playing the key role in clinical pregnancy, and to compare 3 different kinds of Bayesian network classifiers (including NBN, BAN, GBN) in terms of classification performance. As a result of experiments, we found the fact that the most important features playing the key role in clinical pregnancy (Clin) are indication (IND), stimulation, age of female partner (FA), number of ova (ICT), and use of Wallace (ETM), and then discovered inter-dependencies among these features. And we made sure that BAN and GBN, which are more general Bayesian network classifiers permitting inter-dependencies among features, show higher performance than NBN. By comparing Bayesian classifiers based on probabilistic representation and reasoning with other classifiers such as decision trees and k-nearest neighbor methods, we found that the former show higher performance than the latter due to inherent characteristics of clinical domain. finally, we suggested a feature reduction method in which all features except only some ones within Markov blanket of the class node are removed, and investigated by experiments whether such feature reduction can increase the performance of Bayesian classifiers.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.247-257
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• 2019

Objectives: The Korea Ministry of Environment regulates concentrations of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) through Atmosphere Environmental Standards to protect public health from HAPs. However, simply determining the exceedance of HAP concentrations has several limitations and more comprehensive assessment is required. In addition, integrated risk assessment is needed considering exposure in all microenvironments, including outdoor as well as indoor environments. The purpose of this study was to assess the differences in risk by sub-population groups according to time-activity patterns and reported concentrations, as well as the lifetime risk for Koreans. Methods: In this study, we calculated time-weighted average exposure concentrations for benzene and $PM_{10}$ among preschool-age children, students, housewifes, workers, and the elderly using residential time and concentrations for indoor (house, school or workplace, other), outdoor, and transport by the meta-analysis method. The risk assessments were conducted by excess cancer risk and disease death risk using 1,000,000 Monte-Carlo simulations for probabilistic analysis. Results: Preschool-age children, students, housewifes, workers, and the elderly spent 91.9, 86.0, 79.8, 82.2, and 77.3% of their day in their house, workplace, or school, respectively. The more than 99% excess cancer risk for benzene exceed 1.0E-06 in all sub-populations and lifetime. The acute disease death risk for $PM_{10}$ for housewifes and workers for lifetime were 3.35E-04 and 3.18E-04, and chronic disease death risks were 2.84E-03 and 2.70E-03, respectively. Conclusions: The risk of benzene and $PM_{10}$ by sub-population group and for the lifetime of housewifes and workers were assessed. Benzene showed risky results for this study. All disease death risks of $PM_{10}$ were higher than 1.0E-04 and showed different risks by sub-population. This study can be used as a basis for lifetime exposure and risk assessment to benzene and $PM_{10}$.