• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic methods

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A Study on the Establishment of the Framework Apportion Ratio in Calculating Damages due to Accidental Fires (화재의 실화배상책임액 산정을 위한 프레임워크 수립에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Kwang-Suk;Park, Chung-Hwa
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.190-203
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    • 2019
  • Since the amendment of the Accidental Fire Liability Act in 2009, interested parties in accidental fire liability contracts have settled issues associated with the estimation of each other's liability amounts through lawsuits. As fire accidents are complex in nature, it is difficult to distinguish between direct and additional damages caused by extended combustion while calculating liability amounts for accidental fires. Additionally, there is an increasing need for establishing and using a framework that includes validity and reliability. To establish such a framework for estimating the liability amounts in case of an accidental fire, this study suggests a novel categorization of fires to be applied to the framework. This will be organized by the subjects of the liability of accidental fires, and quantified and probabilistic processed qualitative items through the methods applied to quantification (AMEA/FTA) based on the fire statistics data published by the government and the previous researchers' research application data and results.

Identification of Proapoptopic, Anti-Inflammatory, Anti-Proliferative, Anti-Invasive and Anti-Angiogenic Targets of Essential Oils in Cardamom by Dual Reverse Virtual Screening and Binding Pose Analysis

  • Bhattacharjee, Biplab;Chatterjee, Jhinuk
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.3735-3742
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    • 2013
  • Background: Cardamom (Elettaria cardamom), also known as "Queen of Spices", has been traditionally used as a culinary ingredient due to its pleasant aroma and taste. In addition to this role, studies on cardamom have demonstrated cancer chemopreventive potential in in vitro and in vivo systems. Nevertheless, the precise poly-pharmacological nature of naturally occurring chemo-preventive compounds in cardamom has still not been fully demystified. Methods:In this study, an effort has been made to identify the proapoptopic, anti-inflammatory, anti-proliferative, anti-invasive and anti-angiogenic targets of Cardamom's bioactive principles (eucalyptol, alpha-pinene, beta-pinene, d-limonene and geraniol) by employing a dual reverse virtual screening protocol. Experimentally proven target information of the bioactive principles was annotated from bioassay databases and compared with the virtually screened set of targets to evaluate the reliability of the computational identification. To study the molecular interaction pattern of the anti-tumor action, molecular docking simulation was performed with Auto Dock Pyrx. Interaction studies of binding pose of eucalyptol with Caspase 3 were conducted to obtain an insight into the interacting amino acids and their inter-molecular bondings. Results:A prioritized list of target proteins associated with multiple forms of cancer and ranked by their Fit Score (Pharm Mapper) and descending 3D score (Reverse Screen 3D) were obtained from the two independent inverse screening platforms. Molecular docking studies exploring the bioactive principle targeted action revealed that H- bonds and electrostatic interactions forms the chief contributing factor in inter-molecular interactions associated with anti-tumor activity. Eucalyptol binds to the Caspase 3 with a specific framework that is well-suited for nucleophilic attacks by polar residues inside the Caspase 3 catalytic site. Conclusion:This study revealed vital information about the poly-pharmacological anti-tumor mode-of-action of essential oils in cardamom. In addition, a probabilistic set of anti-tumor targets for cardamom was generated, which can be further confirmed by in vivo and in vitro experiments.

Semantic Segmentation using Convolutional Neural Network with Conditional Random Field (조건부 랜덤 필드와 컨볼루션 신경망을 이용한 의미론적인 객체 분할 방법)

  • Lim, Su-Chang;Kim, Do-Yeon
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.451-456
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    • 2017
  • Semantic segmentation, which is the most basic and complicated problem in computer vision, classifies each pixel of an image into a specific object and performs a task of specifying a label. MRF and CRF, which have been studied in the past, have been studied as effective methods for improving the accuracy of pixel level labeling. In this paper, we propose a semantic partitioning method that combines CNN, a kind of deep running, which is in the spotlight recently, and CRF, a probabilistic model. For learning and performance verification, Pascal VOC 2012 image database was used and the test was performed using arbitrary images not used for learning. As a result of the study, we showed better partitioning performance than existing semantic partitioning algorithm.

Measuring Out-of-pocket Payment, Catastrophic Health Expenditure and the Related Socioeconomic Inequality in Peru: A Comparison Between 2008 and 2017

  • Hernandez-Vasquez, Akram;Rojas-Roque, Carlos;Vargas-Fernandez, Rodrigo;Rosselli, Diego
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.266-274
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    • 2020
  • Objectives: Describe out-of-pocket payment (OOP) and the proportion of Peruvian households with catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) and evaluate changes in socioeconomic inequalities in CHE between 2008 and 2017. Methods: We used data from the 2008 and 2017 National Household Surveys on Living and Poverty Conditions (ENAHO in Spanish), which are based on probabilistic stratified, multistage and independent sampling of areas. OOP was converted into constant dollars of 2017. A household with CHE was assumed when the proportion between OOP and payment capacity was ≥0.40. OOP was described by median and interquartile range while CHE was described by weighted proportions and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). To estimate the socioeconomic inequality in CHE we computed the Erreygers concentration index. Results: The median OOP reduced from 205.8 US dollars to 158.7 US dollars between 2008 and 2017. The proportion of CHE decreased from 4.9% (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.2) in 2008 to 3.7% (95% CI, 3.4 to 4.0) in 2017. Comparison of socioeconomic inequality of CHE showed no differences between 2008 and 2017, except for rural households in which CHE was less concentrated in richer households (p<0.05) and in households located on the rest of the coast, showing an increase in the concentration of CHE in richer households (p<0.05). Conclusions: Although OOP and CHE reduced between 2008 and 2017, there is still socioeconomic inequality in the burden of CHE across different subpopulations. To reverse this situation, access to health resources and health services should be promoted and guaranteed to all populations.

A Fundamental Study on the Database of Response History for Historical Earthquake Records on the Korean Peninsula (한반도 과거 지진기록에 대한 응답이력 데이터베이스 구축 기초 연구)

  • Choi, Inhyeok;Ahn, Jae-Kwang;Kwak, Dongyoup
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.821-831
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    • 2019
  • The 9.12 earthquake (2016.9.12., ML=5.8) and Pohang (2017.11.15., ML=5.4) caused social and economic damage, resulting in a greater public interest in earthquakes than in the past. In the U.S., Japan and Chile, which have high frequency of earthquakes, infrastructure facilities are already managed based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) to prepare for and respond to seismic disasters. In South Korea, the aforementioned PSHA and GMPE models have been developed independently through individual researchers. However, the limited disclosure of basic data, calculation methods, and final results created during the model development poses a problem of deploying new data without updating the earthquake that occurs every year. Therefore, this paper describes how to create flatfile, which is the basic data of GMPE, and how to process for seismic waves, and how to create intensity measures.

GALAXY SED FITTING

  • Denis, Burgarella;Mederic, Boquien;Veronique, Buat;Laure, Ciesla;Yannick, Rhoelly
    • Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.205-208
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    • 2017
  • Modelling and fitting the spectral energy distribution (SED) of galaxies or regions of galaxies is one of the most useful methods available to the astronomer nowadays. By modelling the SEDs and comparing the models to the observations, we can collect important information on the physical processes at play in the formation and evolution of galaxies. The models allow to follow the evolution of the galaxies from their formation on. The versatility of code is crucial because of the diversity of galaxies. The analysis is only relevant and useful if the models can correctly reproduce this diversity now and across (as best as possible) all redshifts. On the other hand, the code needs to run fast to compare several million or tens of millions of models and to select the best (on a probabilistic basis) one that best resembles the observations. With this important point in mind, it seems logical that we should efficiently make use of the computer power available to the average astronomer. For instance, it seems difficult, today, to model and fit SEDs without a parallelized code. We present the new Python version of CIGALE SED fitting code and its characteristics. CIGALE comes in two main flavours: CIGALE Classic to fit SEDs and CIGALE Model to create spectra and SEDs of galaxies at all redshifts. The latest can potentially be used in conjunction with galaxy evolution models of galaxy formation and evolution such as semi-analytic ones.

A Study on the Construction of Computerized Algorithm for Proper Construction Cost Estimation Method by Historical Data Analysis (실적자료 분석에 의한 적정 공사비 산정방법의 전산화 알고리즘 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Chun Jae-Youl
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.4 no.4 s.16
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    • pp.192-200
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    • 2003
  • The object of this research is to develop a computerized algorithm of cost estimation method to forecast the total construction cost in the bidding stage by the historical and elemental work cost data. Traditional cost models to prepare Bill of Quantities in the korea construction industry since 1970 are not helpful to forecast the project total cost in the bidding stage because the BOQ is always constant data according to the design factors of a particular project. On the contrary, statistical models can provide cost quicker and more reliable than traditional ones if the collected cost data are sufficient enough to analyze the trends of the variables. The estimation system considers non-deterministic methods which referred to as the 'Monte Carlo simulation. The method interprets cost data to generate a probabilistic distribution for total costs from the deficient elemental experience cost distribution.

Application of Risk-Informed Methods to In-Service Piping Inspection in Framatome Type Nuclear Power Plants (프라마톰형 원전의 배관 가동중검사에 리스크 정보를 활용한 기법 적용)

  • Kim, Jin-Hoi;Lee, Jeong-Seok;Yun, Eun-Sub
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.311-317
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    • 2014
  • The Pressurized water reactor owners group (PWROG) developed and applied a risk-informed in-service inspection (RI-ISI) program, as an alternative to the existing ASME Section XI' sampling inspection method. The RI-ISI programs enhance overall safety by focusing inspections of piping at high safety significance (HSS) locations where failure mechanisms are likely to be present. Additionally, the RI-ISI program can reduce nondestructive evaluation (NDE) exams, man-rem exposure for inspectors, and inspection time, among other benefits. The RI-ISI method of in-service piping inspection was applied to 3 units (KSNPs: Korea standard nuclear power plants) and is being deployed to the other units. In this paper, the results of RI-ISI for a Framatome type (France CPI) nuclear power plant are presented. It was concluded that application of RI-ISI to the plant could enhance and maintain plant safety, as well as provide the benefits of greater reliability.

Analysis of Probabilistic Limits of Trait Identity in Inter-Strain Comparison of Genomic Fingerprints of Bacteria (균주간 유전체 지문 비교분석에서 유전형질 일치성의 확률적 한계 분석)

  • Zo, Young-Gun
    • Korean Journal of Microbiology
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.263-267
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    • 2011
  • Genomic fingerprinting methods are useful in determining relatedness among bacterial strains. However, random coincidences in sizes of two DNA fragments in two different fingerprints may occur, resulting in erroneous interpretation of relatedness between two bacterial genomes. In this study, I estimated the probability of occurrence of DNA bands of identical size in fingerprints of two unrelated genomes, so that the significance of fingerprint-based estimation of genome relatedness could be analyzed. The probability could be estimated as outputs of a function formulated with the three parameters: the numbers of observed fragments, all possible sizes of fragments and observed fragments common in a given pair of fingerprints. The parameter most instrumental to significance of relatedness estimation was the number of all possible sizes of fragments. To keep the number of coincidentally-common size of fragments below 10, about 200 fragments should be distinguishable in the fingerprints.

A Fuzzy-based Risk Assessment using Uncertainty Model (불확실성 모델을 사용한 퍼지 위험도분석)

  • Choi Hyun-Ho;Seo Jong-Won;Jung Pyung-Ki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.473-476
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents a systematic risk assessment procedure with uncertainty modeling for general construction projects. Since the approach is able to effectively deal with all the related construction risks in terms of the assumed probability with conditional probability concept that systematically incorporate expert's experiences and subjective judgement, the proposed methods with uncertainty modeling is able to apply to all the construction projects inherent in lots of uncertain risk events. The fuzzy set theory is adopted to enhance risk assessment to effectively handle the vague and dynamic phenomenon of an event Therefore, the fuzzy-based risk assessment is very useful, for those countries, such as Korea, where objective probabilistic data for risk assessment is extremely rare, and thus the utilization of subjective judgmental data based on expert's experiences is inevitable.

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