• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.86-92
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• 2012

Point estimate method has a less accuracy than Monte Carlo simulation that is usually considered as an exact probabilistic method, but this method still remains popular in probability-based reliability assessment in geotechnical and rock engineering, because it significantly reduce the number of sampling points and produces the statistical moments of a performance function in a reasonable accuracy. In the present study, we investigated the accuracy and applicability of point estimate methods proposed by Rosenblueth and Zhou & Nowak by comparing the results of these two methods with those of Monte Carlo simulations. The comparison was carried out for the problem of a lined circular tunnel in an elastic medium where an closed-form analytical solution is given. The comparison results showed that despite the non-linearity of the analytical solution, the statistical moments calculated by the point estimate methods and the Monte Carlo simulations agreed well with an average error of roughly 1-2%. This average error demonstrates the applicability of the two point estimate methods for the probabilistic reliability assessment of underground structures in combination with numerical analysis.

• KCI Concrete Journal
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.93-101
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• 2002

The details of an approach to account for the factors that have been found to affect the ability and the probability to control cracking due to sawcutting in newly constructed concrete pavements are presented. Several factors such as material strength parameters, method and quality of curing, slab and subbase stiffness, and concrete shrinkage affect the probability of crack initiation. Others are relevant to concrete mixture characteristics that affect development of early aged stresses caused by shrinkage and thermally induced contraction. This paper presents the results of a probabilistic analysis of the factors that affect crack control using sawcut notches. Cost analyses on both conventional and early-entry sawcutting methods are shown to support the results of the probabilistic analysis. From both an operational and cost standpoint, it is evident for the environmental conditions considered that early-entry sawcut methodology holds a significant advantage over conventional methods.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.155-165
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• 2017

The Hansel-Spittel constitutive model requires a total of nine parameters for flow stress prediction. Typically, the parameters are estimated by least squares methods for given tensile test measurements from a deterministic perspective. In this research we took a different approach, a probabilistic viewpoint, to see through the development of the Hansel-Spittel constitutive model. This perspective change showed that deterministic least squares methods are closely related to statistical maximum likelihood methods via Gaussian noise assumption. More intriguingly, this perspective shift revealed that the Hansel-Spittel constitutive model may leave out deterministic trends in residuals despite nearly perfect agreement with measurements. With tensile test measurements of AA1070 aluminum alloy, we demonstrated this deficiency of the Hansel-Spittel constitutive model, suggesting room for improvement.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.9-17
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• 1992

Proper resource allocation is also a very important topic in power system problems, especially in operation and planning. One such is optimal maintenance problem in operation and planning. Least cost and highest reliability should be the subjects to be pursued. A probabilistic operation simulation model developed recently by authors is applied to the proboem of optimal maintenance scheduling. Three different methods are compared, marginal maintenance cost, levelized risk and maintenance space. The method by the marginal maintenance costs shows the least cost, the highest reliability and the highest maintenance outage rates. This latter characteristics may considerably influence the results of genetation planning, because the usual maintenance outages obtained from the other methods have shown to be lower.

• Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.11-15
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• 1986

In this paper, we consider the validity of a human probabilistic learning model applied to the perdiction of errors associated with the absolute identification of tones. It is shown that the probabilistic learning model describes the human error process adequately. The model parameters are estimated by two methods which are the method of maximum likelihood, and the method of mement. The MLE version of the model has the better predictive power but the ME version is more readily obtainable and may be more practical.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2012.10a
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• pp.433-434
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• 2012

• Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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• v.27 no.2_1
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• pp.249-256
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• 2024

Traditional methods for monitoring targets rely heavily on probabilistic data association (PDA) or Kalman filtering. However, achieving optimal performance in a densely congested tracking environment proves challenging due to factors such as the complexities of measurement, mathematical simplification, and combined target detection for the tracking association problem. This article analyzes a target tracking problem through the lens of fuzzy logic theory, identifies the fuzzy rules that a fuzzy tracker employs, and designs the tracker utilizing fuzzy rules and Kalman filtering.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.52 no.12
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• pp.705-712
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• 2003

In this paper, we propose new unified methodologies of reliability and its cost evaluation in power distribution systems. The unified method means that the proposed reliability approaches consider both conventional evaluation factor, i.e. sustained interruptions and additional ones, i.e. momentary interruptions and voltage sags. Because the three voltage quality phenomena generally originate from the outages on distribution systems, the basic and additional reliability indices are summarized considering the fault clearing mechanism. The proposed unified method is divided into the reliability evaluation for calculating the reliability indices and reliability cost evaluation for assessing the damage of customer. The analytic and probabilistic methodologies are presented for each unified reliability and its cost evaluation. The time sequential Monte Carlo technique is used for the probabilistic method. The proposed DVL(Demand Varying Load) model is added to the reliability cost evaluation substituting the average load model. The proposed methods are tested using the modified RBTS(Roy Billinton Test System) form and historical reliability data of KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation) system. The daily load profile of the each customer type in domestic are gathered for the DVL model. Through the case studies, it is verified that the proposed methods can be effectively applied to the distribution systems for more detail reliability assessment than conventional approaches.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.105-123
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• 2016

In this paper, using the probabilistic methods, the seismic demand of buckling restrained braced frames subjected to earthquake was evaluated. In this regards, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 and 14-storybuildings with different buckling restrained brace configuration (including diagonal, split X, chevron V and Inverted V bracings) were designed. Because of the inherent uncertainties in the earthquake records, incremental dynamical analysis was used to evaluate seismic performance of the structures. Using the results of incremental dynamical analysis, the "capacity of a structure in terms of first mode spectral acceleration", "fragility curve" and "mean annual frequency of exceeding a limit state" was determined. "Mean annual frequency of exceeding a limit state" has been estimated for immediate occupancy (IO) and collapse prevention (CP) limit states using both Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA) and solution "based on displacement" in the Demand and Capacity Factor Design (DCFD) form. Based on analysis results, the inverted chevron (${\Lambda}$) buckling restrained braced frame has the largest capacity among the considered buckling restrained braces. Moreover, it has the best performance among the considered buckling restrained braces. Also, from fragility curves, it was observed that the fragility probability has increased with the height.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.597-609
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• 2023

One of the applicable methods for the stabilization of soil walls is the nailing system which consists of tensile struts. The stability and safety of soil nail wall systems are influenced by the geometrical parameters of the nailing system. Generally, the determination of nailing parameters in order to achieve optimal performance of the nailing system for the safety of soil walls is defined in the framework of optimization problems. Also, according to the various uncertainty in the mechanical parameters of soil structures, it is necessary to evaluate the reliability of the system as a probabilistic problem. In this paper, the optimal design of the nailing system is carried out in deterministic and probabilistic cases using meta-heuristic and reliability-based design optimization methods. The colliding body optimization algorithm and first-order reliability method are used for optimization and reliability analysis problems, respectively. The objective function is defined based on the total cost of nails and safety factors and reliability index are selected as constraints. The mechanical properties of the nailing system are selected as design variables and the mechanical properties of the soil are selected as random variables. The results show that the reliability of the optimally designed soil nail system is very sensitive to uncertainty in soil mechanical parameters. Also, the design results are affected by uncertainties in soil mechanical parameters due to the values of safety factors. Reliability-based design optimization results show that a nailing system can be designed for the expected level of reliability and failure probability.