• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.38 no.11
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• pp.19-30
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• 2022

Developing a fragility curve for the levee requires calculating the probability of failure according to the water level for each failure mode. Since probabilistic analysis requires iterative analysis to account for variability in geotechnical parameters, the fragility curve development inevitably requires many iterative calculations. Therefore, approximate probabilistic analysis techniques are usually applied to reduce the amount of calculation in developing the levee fragility curve. However, their accuracy has not been determined clearly. This study calculated the failure probability of slope and piping failure mode for an actual levee through probabilistic methods, such as FOSM, PEM, and MCS. Then, the fragility curve of the levee according to the water level was developed. The results of the approximate methods: FOSM and PEM, were compared with those of MCS to evaluate the applicability to the fragility curve for slope and piping failure mode.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.39-48
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• 2010

The present study developed a program which can assess the reliability of tunnel support systems based on a probability-based method. The developed program uses FLAC2D as a solver, and can automatically execute all the processes, associated with numerical and probabilistic analysis. Since a numerical analysis, which models the ground, requires a significant calculation time, it is actually impossible to apply simulation-based methods to probabilistic assessment on the reliability of tunnel support systems. Therefore, the present study used a point estimate method, which is efficient for probabilistic analysis since the method can significantly reduce the number of samples when compared with the simulation-based method. The developed program was applied to a tunnel project, and the results were compared with those through a deterministic approach. From the comparison, it was identified that a probabilistic approach can quantitatively assess the reliability of tunnel support systems based on probability of failure and can be used as a tool for decision making in tunnel support designs.

• Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.239-246
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• 2017

RC(Reinforced Concrete) structures can keep their performance during intended service life through initial service life and extension of the life through repairs. In the deterministic repairing method, cost and the related $CO_2$ emission increase with step-shaped escalation, however continuous results can be obtained through probabilistic repairing technique, and this is capable of reducing $CO_2$ emission through $CO_2$ absorption. In the work, repairing timing and $CO_2$ emission/absorption are evaluated based on the different methods like deterministic and probabilistic manner. The probabilistic technique considering $CO_2$ absorption with carbonation progress is evaluated to be very effective to reduction of $CO_2$ emission through extension of initial and additional service life due to repairs. When the variations of the service life from initial construction and repair material can be determined, the proposed technique can contribute to reduction of cost and $CO_2$ with decreasing repairing number.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.29 no.12
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• pp.926-939
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• 2002

The formal specification methods with probability have been demanded in the area of fault real-time systems, in order to specify the uncertainty that the systems can encounter during their execution due to various environmental factors. This paper presents a new formal method with probability. namely Probabilistic Abstract Timed Machine (PATM), in order to analyze and predict system's behavior in dynamical environmental changes, This method classifies the factors into two classes: the variable and the constant. The analysis of system's behavior is performed on the probabilistic reachability graph generated from the ATM specification for the system. The analysis can predict any possibility that the behavior may not satisfy some safety requirements of the system, indicate which variable factors cause such satisfaction, and further recover from this unsatisfying fault state by fixing the variable factors. Consequently the reliability to the fault real-time systems can be improved.

• Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.217-232
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• 2015

To prevent over-testing of the test-item during random vibration testing Scharton proposed and discussed the force limited random vibration testing (FLVT) in a number of publications. Besides the random vibration specification, the total mass and the turn-over frequency of the load (test item), $C^2$ is a very important parameter for FLVT. A number of computational methods to estimate $C^2$ are described in the literature, i.e., the simple and the complex two degrees of freedom system, STDFS and CTDFS, respectively. The motivation of this work is to evaluate the method for the computation of a realistic value of $C^2$ to perform a representative random vibration test based on force limitation, when the adjacent structure (source) description is more or less unknown. Marchand discussed the formal description of getting $C^2$, using the maximum PSD of the acceleration and maximum PSD of the force, both at the interface between load and source. Stevens presented the coupled systems modal approach (CSMA), where simplified asparagus patch models (parallel-oscillator representation) of load and source are connected, consisting of modal effective masses and the spring stiffness's associated with the natural frequencies. When the random acceleration vibration specification is given the CSMA method is suitable to compute the value of the parameter $C^2$. When no mathematical model of the source can be made available, estimations of the value $C^2$ can be find in literature. In this paper a probabilistic mathematical representation of the unknown source is proposed, such that the asparagus patch model of the source can be approximated. The chosen probabilistic design parameters have a uniform distribution. The computation of the value $C^2$ can be done in conjunction with the CSMA method, knowing the apparent mass of the load and the random acceleration specification at the interface between load and source, respectively. Data of two cases available from literature have been analyzed and discussed to get more knowledge about the applicability of the probabilistic method.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.162-173
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• 1997

Automatic on-line surface inspection systems have been applied for monitoring a quality of steel strip surfaces. One of the important issues in this application is the performance of on-line defect classifiers. Rule-based classification table methods which are conventionally used for this purpose have been suffered from their low performances. In this work, probabilistic neural networks and the enhanced classification tables which are newly proposed here are applied as alternative on-line classifiers to identify types of surface defects on cold rolled strips. Probabilistic neural networks have shown very excellent performance for classification of surface defects.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.13-19
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• 2008

In order to predict a remaining life of a plant, it is necessary to select the components that are critical to the plant life. The remaining life of those components shall be evaluated by considering the aging effect of materials used as well as numerous factors. However, when evaluating reliability of nuclear structural components, some problems are quite formidable because of lack of information such as operating history, material property change and uncertainty in damage models. Accordingly, if structural integrity and safety are evaluated by the deterministic fracture mechanics approach, it is expected that the results obtained are too conservative to perform a rational evaluation of plant life. The probabilistic fracture mechanics approaches are regarded as appropriate methods to rationally evaluate the plant life since they can consider various uncertainties such as sizes and shapes of cracks and degradation of material strength due to the aging effects. The objective of this study is to evaluate the structural integrity for a reactor pressure vessel under the small break loss of coolant accident by applying the deterministic and probabilistic fracture mechanics. The deterministic fracture mechanics analysis was performed using the three dimensional finite element model. The probabilistic integrity analysis was based on the Monte Carlo simulation. The selected random variables are the neutron fluence on the vessel inside surface, the content of copper, nickel, and phosphorus in the reactor pressure vessel material, and initial RTNDT.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.57-68
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• 2009

Recently, damage scale of human-induced disaster is sharply increased but its occurrences and damages are so uncertain that it is hard to construct a resonable response & mitigation plan for infrastructures. Therefore, the needs for a advanced risk management technique based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory is increased. In this study, these evaluation methods were investigated and a advanced disaster risk evaluation method, which is based on the probabilistic or stochastic risk assessment theory and also is a quantitative evaluation technique, was suggested. With this method, the safety changes as the result of fire damage management for recent 40 years was analyzed. And the result was compared with that of Japan. Through the consilience of the traditional risk assessment method and this method, a stochastical estimation technique for the uncertainty of future disaster's damage could support a cost-effective information for a resonable decision making on disaster mitigation.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.26 no.5C
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• pp.313-322
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• 2006

Liquefaction of soil foundation is one of the major seismic damage types for infrastructures. In this paper, deterministic and probabilistic approaches for the evaluation of liquefaction potential are briefly summarized and the risk assessment method is newly proposed using seismic fragility and seismic hazard analyses. Currently the deterministic approach is widely used to evaluate the liquefaction potential in Korea. However, it is very difficult to handle a certain degree of uncertainties in the soil properties such as elastic modulus and resistant capacity by deterministic approach, and the probabilistic approaches are known as more promising. Two types of probabilistic approaches are introduced including (1) the reliability analysis (to obtain probability of failure) for a given design earthquake and (2) the seismic risk analysis of liquefaction for a specific soil for a given service life. The results from different methods show a similar trend, and the liquefaction potential can be more quantitatively evaluated using the new risk analysis method.

• Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
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• v.32 no.5
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• pp.243-254
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• 2005

Soft real-time applications such as multimedia feature highly variable processor requirements and probabilistic guarantees on deadline misses, meaning that each task in the application meets its deadline with a given probability. Thus, for such soft real-time applications, a system designer may want to improve the system utilization by allocating to each task a processor time less than its worst-case requirement, as long as the imposed probabilistic timing constraint is met. In this case, however, we have to address how to schedule jobs of a task that require more than (or, overrun) the allocated processor time to the task. In this paper, to address the overrun problem, we propose an overrun control method, which probabilistically controls the execution of overrunning jobs. The proposed overrun control method probabilistically allows overrunning jobs to complete for better system utilization, and also probabilistically prevents the overrunning jobs from completing so that the required probabilistic timing constraint for each task can be met. In the paper, we show that the proposed method outperforms previous methods proposed in the literature in terms of the overall deadline miss ratio, and that it is possible to synthesize the scheduling parameters of our method so that all tasks can meet the given probabilistic timing constraints.