• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.149-153
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• 2008

The pollutant capacity occurred before and after the development of a watershed should be quantitatively estimated and controlled for the minimization of water contamination. The Ministry of Environment suggested a guideline for the legal management of nonpoint source from 2006. However, the rational method for the determination of treatment capacity from nonpoint source proposed in the guideline has the problem in the field application because it does not reflect the project based cases and overestimates the pollutant load to be reduced. So, we perform the standard rainfall analysis by analytical probabilistic method for the estimation of an additional pollutant load occurred by a project and suggest a methodology for the estimation of contaminant capacity instead of a simple rational method. The suggested methodology in this study could determine the reasonable capacity and efficiency of a treatment facility through the estimation of pollutant load from nonpoint source and from this we can manage the watershed appropriately. We applied a suggested methodology to the projects of housing land development and a dam construction in the watersheds. When we determine the treatment capacity by a rational method without consideration of the types of projects we should treat the 90% of pollutant capacity occurred by the development and to do so, about 30% of the total cost for the development should be invested for the treatment facility. This requires too big cost and is not realistic. If we use the suggested method the target pollutant capacity to be reduced will be 10 to 30% of the capacity occurred by the development and about 5 to 10% of the total cost can be used. The control of nonpoint source must be performed for the water resources management. However it is not possible to treat the 90% of pollutant load occurred by the development. The proper pollutant capacity from nonpoint source should be estimated and controlled based on various project types and in reality, this is very important for the watershed management. Therefore the results of this study might be more reasonable than the rational method proposed in the Ministry of Environment.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.45 no.6
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• pp.10-27
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• 2017

Recently, the importance of recognizing the natural environment and the need for its conservation are increasing due to rapid urbanization. Suncheon Bay, designated as Scenic Site No. 41 and one of the World's Five Greatest Coastal Wetlands, is the only tideland among the tidal flats in Korea, which has salt marsh reserves. It has high conservation value from the ecological aspect. In addition to the Suncheon Bay National Garden, it provides various benefits not only to visitors but to local residents as well in terms of economics, environmental issues, and history and cultural aspects. Two million tourists visit the site annually, which has constantly highlighted the limits of ecological capacity. The valuation of the Suncheon Bay wetland is more important for the sustainability of the Suncheon Bay wetland than for its value as a tourism resource for the activation of the local economy. This study used the Logit model, which is commonly used among probabilistic choice models, to evaluate the economic value of Suncheon Bay wetland with the contingent valuation method(CVM). Applying the conservation value of the Suncheon Bay wetland to the benefit of KRW 8,200 for 1 person and 1 day, the benefit from exploration is KRW 2,050, the management and conservation value is KRW 3,034, and the heritage value is KRW 3,116. The results of this study are that benefit from the annual exploration of Suncheon Bay wetland was KRW 44.3 in billion, the management and conservation value was KRW 6.55 in billion, and the heritage value was KRW 6.73 in billion. When converted to the number of paying visitors per year, the conservation value is about KRW 177.1 billion. This study was conducted to evaluate the use and conservation aspects of the economic value of Suncheon Bay wetland. Based on the latent value of the Suncheon Bay wetland, it provides basic data about the efficient management and policy establishment of Suncheon Bay wetland. The study is significant in that the ecological sustainability of the Suncheon bay wetland and the value of non-marketable were evaluated based on the recognition of 'benefit through exploration', 'management and conservation value' and 'value of heritage'. It can be used as policy decision data on the integrated collection of the admission fee of the Suncheon Bay wetland and Suncheon Bay National Garden.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.158-169
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• 2019

A probabilistic model that can predict the residual useful lifetime of structure is formulated by using the gamma process which is one of the stochastic processes. The formulated stochastic model can take into account both the sampling uncertainty associated with damages measured up to now and the temporal uncertainty of cumulative damage over time. A method estimating several parameters of stochastic model is additionally proposed by introducing of the least square method and the method of moments, so that the age of a structure, the operational environment, and the evolution of damage with time can be considered. Some features related to the residual useful lifetime are firstly investigated into through the sensitivity analysis on parameters under a simple setting of single damage data measured at the current age. The stochastic model are then applied to the rubble-mound breakwater straightforwardly. The parameters of gamma process can be estimated for several experimental data on the damage processes of armor rocks of rubble-mound breakwater. The expected damage levels over time, which are numerically simulated with the estimated parameters, are in very good agreement with those from the flume testing. It has been found from various numerical calculations that the probabilities exceeding the failure limit are converged to the constraint that the model must be satisfied after lasting for a long time from now. Meanwhile, the expected residual useful lifetimes evaluated from the failure probabilities are seen to be different with respect to the behavior of damage history. As the coefficient of variation of cumulative damage is becoming large, in particular, it has been shown that the expected residual useful lifetimes have significant discrepancies from those of the deterministic regression model. This is mainly due to the effect of sampling and temporal uncertainties associated with damage, by which the first time to failure tends to be widely distributed. Therefore, the stochastic model presented in this paper for predicting the residual useful lifetime of structure can properly implement the probabilistic assessment on current damage state of structure as well as take account of the temporal uncertainty of future cumulative damage.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.71-92
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• 2015

This study analyzes the impact of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) activities on financial performances using Bayesian Network. The research tries to overcome the issues of the uniform assumption of a linear function between financial performance and CSR activities in multiple regression analysis widely used in previous studies. It is required to infer a causal relationship between activities of CSR which have an impact on the financial performances. Identifying the relationship would empower the firms to improve their financial performance by informing the decision makers about the different CSR activities that influence the financial performance of the firms. This research proposes General Bayesian Network (GBN) and presents Markov Blanket induced from GBN. It is empirically demonstrated that all the proposals presented in this study are statistically significant by the results of the research conducted by Korean Economic Justice Institute (KEJI) under Citizen's Coalition for Economic Justice (CCEJ) which investigated approximately 200 companies in Korea based on Korean Economic Justice Institute Index (KEJI index) from 2005 to 2011. The Bayesian Network to effectively infer the properties affecting financial performances through the probabilistic causal relationship. Moreover, I found that there is a causal relationship among CSR activities variable; that is Environment protection is related to Customer protection, Employee satisfaction, and firm size; Soundness is related to Total CSR Evaluation Score, Debt-Assets Ratio. Though the what-if analysis, I suggest to the sensitive factor among the explanatory variables.

• Journal of IKEEE
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• v.1 no.1 s.1
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• pp.31-46
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• 1997

In this paper, a parallel Optimal Best-First search Branch-and-Bound(B&B) algorithm(pobs) is designed and evaluated for MIN-based multiprocessor systems. The proposed algorithm decomposes a problem into G subproblems, where each subproblem is processed on a group of P processors. Each processor group uses tile sub-Global Best-First search technique to find a local solution. The local solutions are broadcasted through the network to compute the global solution. This broadcast provides not only the comparison of G local solutions but also the load balancing among the processor groups. A performance analysis is then conducted to estimate the speed-up of the proposed parallel B&B algorithm. The analytical model is developed based on the probabilistic properties of the B&B algorithm. It considers both the computation time and communication overheads to evaluate the realistic performance of the algorithm under the parallel processing environment. In order to validate the proposed evaluation model, the simulation of the parallel B&B algorithm on a MIN-based system is carried out at the same time. The results from both analysis and simulation match closely. It is also shown that the proposed Optimal Best-First search B&B algorithm performs better than other reported schemes with its various advantageous features such as: less subproblem evaluations, prefer load balancing, and limited scope of remote communication.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.16 no.12
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• pp.1-10
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• 2011

As requirements of embedded system get complicated, the tool for analyzing the reliability of embedded software is being needed. A probabilistic modeling is used as the way of analyzing the reliability of a software and to apply it to embedded software controlling multiple devices. So, it is necessary to specialize that to embedded software. Also, existing reliability analyzers should measure the transition probability of each condition in different ways and doesn't consider reusing the model once used. In this paper, we suggest a reliability analyzer for embedded software using embedded software Markov chin model and a unit testing tool. Embedded software Markov chain model is model specializing Markov chain model which is used for analyzing reliability to an embedded software. And a unit testing tool has host-target structure which is appropriate to development environment of embedded software. This tool can analyze the reliability more easily than existing tool by automatically measuring the transition probability between units for analyzing reliability from the result of unit testing. It can also directly apply the test result updated by unit testing tool by representing software model as a XML oriented document and has the advantage that many developers can access easily using the web oriented interface and SVN store. In this paper, we show reliability analyzing of a example by so doing show usefulness of reliability analyzer.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.381-391
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• 2010

Probabilistic prediction methods of landslides which have been developed in recent can be reliable with premise of detailed survey and analysis based on deep and special knowledge. However, landslide susceptibility should also be analyzed with some reliable and simple methods by various people such as government officials and engineering geologists who do not have deep statistical knowledge at the moment of hazards. Therefore, this study suggests an evaluation chart of landslide susceptibility with high reliability drawn by accurate statistical approaches, which the chart can be understood easily and utilized for both specialists and non-specialists. The evaluation chart was developed by a quantification method based on canonical correlation analysis using the data of geology, topography, and soil property of landslides in Korea. This study analyzed field data and laboratory test results and determined influential factors and rating values of each factor. The quantification analysis result shows that slope angle has the highest significance among the factors and elevation, permeability coefficient, porosity, lithology, and dry density are important in descending order. Based on the score assigned to each evaluation factor, an evaluation chart of landslide susceptibility was developed with rating values in each class of a factor. It is possible for an analyst to identify susceptibility degree of a landslide by checking each property of an evaluation factor and calculating sum of the rating values. This result can also be used to draw landslide susceptibility maps based on GIS techniques.

• Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.149-157
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• 2011

Urbanization of the world's population has given rise to more than 450 cities around the world with populations in excess of 1 million (megacity) and more than 25 so-called metacities with populations over 10 million (Brinkhoff, 2010). The United States today has a total resident population of more than 308,500,000 people, with 81 percent residing in cities and suburbs as of mid - 2005 (UN, 2008). Urban meteorology is the study of the physics, dynamics, and chemistry of the interactions of Earth's atmosphere and the urban built environment, and the provision of meteorological services to the populations and institutions of metropolitan areas. While the details of such services are dependent on the location and the synoptic climatology of each city, there are common themes, such as enhancing quality of life and responding to emergencies. Experience elsewhere (e.g., Shanghai, Helsinki, Tokyo, Seoul, etc.) shows urban meteorological support is a key part of an integrated or multi-hazard warning system that considers the full range of environmental challenges and provides a unified response from municipal leaders. Urban meteorology has come to require much more than observing and forecasting the weather of our cities and metropolitan areas. Forecast improvement as a function of more and better observations of various kinds and as a function of model resolution, larger ensembles, predicted probability distributions; Responses of emergency managers, government officials, and users to improved and probabilistic forecasts; Benefits of improved forecasts in reduction of loss of life, property damage, and other adverse effects. A national initiative to enhance urban meteorological services is a high-priority need for a wide variety of stakeholders, including the general, commerce and industry, and all levels of government. Some of the activities of such an initiative include: conducting basic research and development; prototyping and other activities to enable very--short and short range predictions; supporting and improving productivity and efficiency in commercial and industrial sectors; and urban planning for long term sustainability. In addition urban test-beds are an effective means for developing, testing, and fostering the necessary basic and applied meteorological and socioeconomic research, and transitioning research findings to operations. An extended, multi-year period of continuous effort, punctuated with intensive observing and forecasting periods, is envisioned.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.99-118
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• 2012

The aim of this study is to define a correlation between spatial distribution characteristics of FFG(Functional Feeding Groups) of aquatic insects and related environmental factors in the Geum River based on the theory of RCC(River Continuum Concept). For that objective we had used SMRA(Stepwise Multiple Regression Analysis) method to analyze close relationship between the distribution of aquatic insects and the physical and chemical factors that may affect their inhabiting environment in the study area. And then, a probabilistic method named Frequency Ratio Model(FRM) and spatial analysis function of GIS were applied to produce a predictive distribution map of biota community considering their distribution characteristics according to the environmental factors as related variables. As a result of SMRA, the values of decision coefficient for factors of elevation, stream width, flow velocity, conductivity, temperature and percentage of sand showed higher than 0.5. Therefore these 6 environmental factors were considered as major factors that might affect the distribution characteristics of aquatic insects. Finally, we had calculated RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) between the predicted distribution map and prior survey database from other researches to verify the result of this study. The values of RMSE were calculated from 0.1892 to 0.4242 according to each FFG so we could find out a high reliability of this study. The results of this study might be used to develop a new estimation method for aquatic ecosystem with macro invertebrate community and also be used as preliminary data for conservation and restoration of stream habitats.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.247-257
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• 2019

Objectives: The Korea Ministry of Environment regulates concentrations of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) through Atmosphere Environmental Standards to protect public health from HAPs. However, simply determining the exceedance of HAP concentrations has several limitations and more comprehensive assessment is required. In addition, integrated risk assessment is needed considering exposure in all microenvironments, including outdoor as well as indoor environments. The purpose of this study was to assess the differences in risk by sub-population groups according to time-activity patterns and reported concentrations, as well as the lifetime risk for Koreans. Methods: In this study, we calculated time-weighted average exposure concentrations for benzene and $PM_{10}$ among preschool-age children, students, housewifes, workers, and the elderly using residential time and concentrations for indoor (house, school or workplace, other), outdoor, and transport by the meta-analysis method. The risk assessments were conducted by excess cancer risk and disease death risk using 1,000,000 Monte-Carlo simulations for probabilistic analysis. Results: Preschool-age children, students, housewifes, workers, and the elderly spent 91.9, 86.0, 79.8, 82.2, and 77.3% of their day in their house, workplace, or school, respectively. The more than 99% excess cancer risk for benzene exceed 1.0E-06 in all sub-populations and lifetime. The acute disease death risk for $PM_{10}$ for housewifes and workers for lifetime were 3.35E-04 and 3.18E-04, and chronic disease death risks were 2.84E-03 and 2.70E-03, respectively. Conclusions: The risk of benzene and $PM_{10}$ by sub-population group and for the lifetime of housewifes and workers were assessed. Benzene showed risky results for this study. All disease death risks of $PM_{10}$ were higher than 1.0E-04 and showed different risks by sub-population. This study can be used as a basis for lifetime exposure and risk assessment to benzene and $PM_{10}$.