• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.1043-1050
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• 2010

This paper examined the probabilistic load analysis for the tailplane during pitching maneuvering in the conceptual aircraft design phase. The flight load analysis based on the probabilistic distribution of design variables are compared with the results of the deterministic analysis. Two forms of variable distribution are used in this paper. One is standard normal distribution, the other distribution is calculated from the results of short-period longitudinal equation of aircraft motion. The influence of the distribution parameter on the probabilistic load analysis was investigated and the significant design variables that have an impact on the mean and variance of probabilistic load were identified. The comparison indicates that probabilistic load analysis provides more reliable probabilistic load distribution for the structural design than the traditional deterministic analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2009.03a
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• pp.707-714
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• 2009

The design response spectrum generally used in Korea is decided by the site coefficients determined by deterministic methodology, while it is based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The design response spectrum has to be made using probabilistic method which includes uncertainties of ground motions and ground properties for coincide with probabilistic methodology of seismic hazard analysis. In this study probabilistic site coefficients were developed, which were defined by the results of site response analysis using a set of ground motion that was compatible with present seismic hazard map. The design response spectrum defined by probabilistic seismic coefficients resulted in lower spectrum in long period area and larger spectrum in short period area. Also, the maximum spectral accelerations in site class D and site class E were lower than one in site class C while in the previous design response spectrum the maximum spectral acceleration increased from site class A to E.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.799-807
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• 2020

This paper deals with identification of probabilistic design using reliability based robust optimization in structure design of automatic salt collector. The thickness sizing variables of main structure member in the automatic salt collector were considered the random design variables including the uncertainty of corrosion that would be an inevitable hazardousness in the saltern work environment. The probabilistic constraint functions were selected from the strength performances of the automatic salt collector. The reliability based robust optimum design problem was formulated such that the random design variables were determined by minimizing the weight of the automatic salt collector subject to the probabilistic strength performance constraints evaluating from reliability analysis. Mean value reliability method and adaptive importance sampling method were applied to the reliability evaluation in the reliability based robust optimization. The three sigma level quality was considered robustness in side constraints. The probabilistic optimum design results according to the reliability analysis methods were compared to deterministic optimum design results. The reliability based robust optimization using the mean value reliability method showed the most rational results for the probabilistic optimum structure design of the automatic salt collector.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.4 no.5
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• pp.527-555
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• 2013

This paper proposes probabilistic models for estimating the seismic demands on reinforced concrete (RC) bridges with base isolation. The models consider the shear and deformation demands on the bridge columns and the deformation demand on the isolation devices. An experimental design is used to generate a population of bridges based on the AASHTO LRFD Bridge Design Specifications (AASHTO 2007) and the Caltrans' Seismic Design Criteria (Caltrans 1999). Ground motion records are used for time history analysis of each bridge to develop probabilistic models that are practical and are able to account for the uncertainties and biases in the current, common deterministic model. As application of the developed probabilistic models, a simple method is provided to determine the fragility of bridges. This work facilitates the reliability-based design for this type of bridges and contributes to the transition from limit state design to performance-based design.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1989.04a
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• pp.1-4
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• 1989

Since 1960's, structural engineers have recognized that tile inherent random nature of loadings and materials as well as the imperfect structural analysis may be important factors in tile structural safety evaluation. Based on the successful developments of the reliability based structural analysis and design, the design criteria of tile standards are recently developed(or modified) in the light of the probabilistic concepts. To develop the probability-based design criteria for tile domestic buildings, the probabilistic characters of loadings acting on structures should be defined first. In this study, therefore, live load data on apartment buildings have collected and analyzed in a systematic manner, and their probabilistic characteristics have been studied. Based oil the results, the lifetime extreme values are computed and compared with current design loads. More rational design loads are suggested, which are more consistent in the probabilistic concepts.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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• v.19 no.12
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• pp.70-79
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• 2020

This paper describes a comparative study of characteristics of probabilistic design using various reliability analysis methods in the structure design of an automatic salt collector. The thickness sizing variables of the main structural member were considered to be random variables, including the uncertainty of corrosion, which would be an inevitable hazard in the work environment of the automatic salt collector. Probabilistic performance functions were selected from the strength performances of the automatic salt collector structure. First-order reliability method, second-order reliability method, mean value reliability method, and adaptive importance sampling method were applied during the reliability analyses. The probabilistic design performances such as reliability probability and numerical costs based on the reliability analysis methods were compared to the Monte Carlo simulation results. The adaptive importance sampling method showed the most rational results for the probabilistic structure design of the automatic salt collector.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.49-59
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• 2004

The paper describes the preliminary ship design method using deterministic approach and probabilistic approach. In deterministic approach, there are computational aspects to applying not only the integration concurrently of principal dimension decisions and hull form variations but also hydrostatic coefficients that applied to optimization iterative process. Therefore, this paper developed that actual design concept at the preliminary ship design more than sequential design which separated in principal dimension decisions and hull form variations. Furthermore, a probabilistic approach at the preliminary ship design is applied to efficiently solve design information uncertainty that compared to deterministic approach.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2000.10a
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• pp.32-39
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• 2000

Probabilistic structural design optimization, which is characterized by the so-called probabilistic. constraints which introduce permissible probability of violation, is preferred to deterministic design optimization since unpredictable inherent uncertainties and randomness in structural and environmental properties are to be taken quantitatively into account by probabilistic design optimization. In this paper, the well-known reliability index based MPFP(Most Probable Failure Point) search approach and the newly introduced target performance measure based MPTP(Minimum Performance Target Point) search approach are summarized and compared. The present comparison focuses on the number of iterations required for the estimation of probabilistic constraints and a technique for improvement which removes exhaustive iterations is presented as well. A 10 bar truss problem is examined for this.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.49 no.6
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• pp.93-101
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• 2007

In general, geotechnical properties have many uncertain aspects, thus probabilistic analysis have been used to consider these aspects. It is, however, quite difficult to select an appropriate target probability for a certain structure or construction process. In this study, minimum expected cost design method based on probabilistic analysis is suggested for design of vertical drains generally used to accelerate consolidation in soft clayey soils. A sensitivity analysis is performed to select the most important uncertain parameters for the design of vertical drains. Monte Carlo simulation is used in sensitivity analysis and probabilistic analysis. Total expected cost, defined as the sum of initial cost and expected additive cost, varies widely with variation of input parameters used in design of vertical drain systems. And probability of failure to get the minimum total expected cost varies under the different design conditions. A minimum value of total expected cost is suggested as a design value in this study. The proposed design concept is applicable to unit construction process because this approach is to consider the uncertainties using probabilistic analysis and uncertainties of geotechnical properties.

• Composites Research
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.29-35
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• 2013

Composite sandwich structure can improve the specific bending stiffness significantly and save the weight nearly 30 percent compared with the composite laminates. However, it has more inherent uncertainties of the material property caused by manufacturing process than metals. Therefore, the reliability-based probabilistic design approach is required. In this paper, the PMS(Probabilistic Margin of Safety) is calculated for the simplified fuselage structure made of composite sandwich to provide the probabilistic reasonable evidence that the classical design method based on the safety factor cannot ensure the structural safety. In this phase, the probability density function estimated by CMCS(Crude Monte-Carlo Simulation) is used. Furthermore, the RBDO(Reliability-Based Design Optimization) under the probabilistic constraint are performed, and the RBDO-MPDF(RBDO by Moving Probability Density Function) is proposed for an efficient computation. The examined results in this paper can be helpful for advanced design techniques to ensure the reliability of structures under the uncertainty and computationally inexpensive RBDO methods.