• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
• /
• v.24 no.3
• /
• pp.122-129
• /
• 2020

To conduct probabilistic seismic fragility analysis for nuclear power plants, it is very important to define the failure modes and criteria that can represent actual serious accidents. The seismic design criteria for piping systems, however, cannot fully reflect serious accidents because they are based on plastic collapse and cannot express leakage, which is the actual limit state. Therefore, it is necessary to clearly define the limit state for reliable probabilistic seismic fragility analysis. Therefore, in this study, the limit state of the SCH80 3-inch steel pipe elbow, the vulnerable part of piping systems, was defined as leakage, and the in-plane cyclic loading test was conducted. Moreover, an attempt was made to quantify the failure criteria for the steel pipe elbow using the damage index, which was based on the dissipated energy that used the moment-deformation angle relationship.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
• /
• v.23 no.6
• /
• pp.289-299
• /
• 2019

The tendency to use a probabilistic design method rather than a deterministic design method for the design of nuclear power plants (NPPs) will increase because their safety should be considered and strictly controlled in relation to various causes of damage. The distance between a seismically isolated NPP structure and a moat wall is called the clearance to stop. The clearance to stop is obtained from the 90th percentile displacement response of a seismically isolated NPP subject to a beyond design basis earthquake (BDBE) in the probabilistic design method. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of heating and buckling effects on the 90th percentile displacement response of a lead-rubber bearing (LRB) subject to a BDBE. The analysis results show that considering the heating and buckling effects to estimate the clearance to stop is conservative in the evaluation of the 90th percentile displacement response. If these two effects are not taken into account in the calculation of the clearance to stop, the underestimation of the clearance to stop causes unexpected damage because of an increase in the collision probability between the moat wall and the seismically isolated NPP.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
• /
• v.27 no.5
• /
• pp.213-220
• /
• 2023

Seismic fragility curves play a crucial role in assessing potential seismic losses and predicting structural damage caused by earthquakes. This study compares non-sampling-based methods of seismic fragility curve derivation, particularly the probabilistic seismic demand model (PSDM) and finite element reliability analysis (FERA), both of which require employing sophisticated finite element analysis to evaluate and predict structural damage caused by earthquakes. In this study, a three-dimensional finite element model of API 5L X65, a buried gas pipeline widely used in Korea, is constructed to derive seismic fragility curves. Its seismic vulnerability is assessed using nonlinear time-history analysis. PSDM and a FERA are employed to derive seismic fragility curves for comparison purposes, and the results are verified through a comparison with those from the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). It is observed that the fragility curves obtained from PSDM are relatively conservative, which is attributed to the assumption introduced to consider the uncertainty factors. In addition, this study provides a comprehensive comparison of seismic fragility curve derivation methods based on sophisticated finite element analysis, which may contribute to developing more accurate and efficient seismic fragility analysis.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.32 no.3
• /
• pp.147-160
• /
• 2020

A stochastic probabilistic model for harbor structures such as rubble-mound breakwater has been formulated by using the generalized Wiener process considering the nonlinearity of damage drift and its nonlinear uncertainty, by which the damage path with real-time can be tracked, the residual useful lifetime at some age can also be analyzed properly. The formulated stochastic model can easily calculate the probability of failure with the passage of time through the probability density function of cumulative damage. In particular, the probability density functions of residual useful lifetime of the existing harbor structures can be derived, which can take into account the current age, its present damage state and the future damage process to be occurred. By using the maximum likelihood method and the least square method together, the involved parameters in the stochastic model can be estimated. In the calibration of the stochastic model presented in this paper, the present results are very well similar with the results of MCS about tracking of the damage paths as well as evaluating of the density functions of the cumulative damage and the residual useful lifetime. MTTF and MRL are also evaluated exactly. Meanwhile, the stochastic probabilistic model has been applied to the rubble-mound breakwater. The related parameters can be estimated by using the experimental data of the cumulative damages of armor units measured as a function of time. The theoretical results about the probability density function of cumulative damage and the probability of failure are very well agreed with MCS results such that the density functions of the cumulative damage tend to move to rightward and the amounts of its uncertainty are increased as the elapsed time goes on. Thus, the probabilities of failure with the elapsed time are also increased sharply. Finally, the behaviors of residual useful lifetime have been investigated with the elapsed age. It is concluded for rubble-mound breakwaters that the probability density functions of residual useful lifetime tends to have a longer tail in the right side rather than the left side because of the gradual increases of cumulative damage of armor units. Therefore, its MRLs are sharply decreased after some age. In this paper, the special attentions are paid to the relationship of MTTF and MRL and the elapsed age of the existing structure. In spite of that the sum of the elapsed age and MRL must be equal to MTTF deterministically, the large difference has been shown as the elapsed age is increased which is due to the uncertainty of cumulative damage to be occurred in the future.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.7 no.2
• /
• pp.201-216
• /
• 2014

In this paper the vulnerability of the confined masonry buildings is evaluated analytically. The proposed approach includes the nonlinear dynamic analysis of the two-story confined masonry buildings with common plan as a reference structure. In this approach the damage level is calculated based on the probability of exceedance of loss vs a specified ground motion in the form of fragility curves. The fragility curves of confined masonry wall buildings are presented in two levels of limit states corresponding to elastic and maximum strength versus PGA based on analytical method. In this regard the randomness of parameters indicating the characteristics of the building structure as well as ground motion is considered as likely uncertainties. In order to develop the analytical fragility curves the proposed analytical models of confined masonry walls in a previous investigation of the authors, are used to specify the damage indices and responses of the structure. In order to obtain damage indices a series of pushover analyses are performed, and to identify the seismic demand a series of nonlinear dynamic analysis are conducted. Finally by considering various mechanical and geometric parameters of masonry walls and numerous accelerograms, the fragility curves with assuming a log normal distribution of data are derived based on capacity and demand of building structures in a probabilistic approach.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
• /
• v.20 no.1
• /
• pp.128-140
• /
• 2014

This study aims to investigate the characteristics and to classify the foreign volcanic disaster maps. Authors try to extract the components of volcanic disaster maps and apply them to the Mt. Baekdu volcano that receives worldwide attention recently has been on an early stage in Korea. Internationally, volcano ash disaster maps are derived and reviewed through three analytical framework components: Hazard Map, Risk Map, and Damage Map. These derived components of volcano ash disaster mapping systems are: 1) cumulative map of past disaster records, 2) probabilistic risk map, 3) scenario-based map and case-by-case utilization maps (evacuation response type, emergency information type, disaster preparedness education type) based on this components are presented.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• v.38 no.4
• /
• pp.443-457
• /
• 2011

The loss of strength in a structure as a result of cyclic loads over a period of life time is an important phenomenon for the life-cycle analysis. Service loads are accentuated at the areas of stress concentration, mainly at the connection of components. Structural components unavoidably are affected by defects such as surface scratches, surface roughness and weld defects of random sizes, which usually occur during the manufacturing and handling process. These defects are shown to have an important effect on the fatigue life of the structural components by promoting crack initiation sites. The value of equivalent initial flaw size (EIFS) is calculated by using the back extrapolation technique and the Paris law of fatigue crack growth from results of fatigue tests. We try to analyze the effect of EIFS distribution in a multiple site damage (MSD) specimen by using the extended finite element method (XFEM). For the analysis, fatigue tests were conducted on the centrally-cracked specimens and MSD specimens.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• v.5 no.6
• /
• pp.527-542
• /
• 2002

Wind-excited vibrations of slender structures can induce fatigue damage and cause structural failure without exceeding ultimate limit state. Unfortunately, the growing importance of this problem is coupled with an evident lack of simple calculation criteria. This paper proposes a mathematical method for evaluating the crosswind fatigue of slender vertical structures, which represents the dual formulation of a parallel method that the authors recently developed with regard to alongwind vibrations. It takes into account the probability distribution of the mean wind velocity at the structural site. The aerodynamic crosswind actions on the stationary structure are caused by the vortex shedding and by the lateral turbulence, both schematised by spectral models. The structural response in the small displacement regime is expressed in closed form by considering only the contribution of the first vibration mode. The stress cycle counting is based on a probabilistic method for narrow-band processes and leads to analytical formulae of the stress cycles histogram, of the accumulated damage and of the fatigue life. The extension of this procedure to take into account aeroelastic vibrations due to lock-in is carried out by means of ESDU method. The examples point out the great importance of vortex shedding and especially of lock-in concerning fatigue.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
• /
• v.21 no.3
• /
• pp.289-300
• /
• 2020

Estimating the damage induced by an explosion around a blast hole has always been a challenging issue in geotechnical engineering. It is difficult to determine an exact dimension for damage zone since many parameters are involved in the formation of failures, and there are some uncertainties lying in these parameters. Thus, the present study adopted a probabilistic approach towards this problem. First, a reliability model of the problem was established and the failure probability of induced damage was calculated. Then, the corresponding exceedance risk curve was developed indicating the relation between the failure probability and the cracked zone radius. The obtained risk curve indicated that the failure probability drops dramatically by increasing the cracked zone radius so that the probability of exceedance for any crack length greater than 4.5 m is less than 5%. Moreover, the effect of each parameter involved in the probability of failure, including blast hole radius, explosive density, detonation velocity, and tensile strength of the rock, was evaluated by using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the impact of the decoupling ratio on the reduction of failures was investigated and the location of its maximum influence was demonstrated around the blast point.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.53 no.7
• /
• pp.2396-2406
• /
• 2021

The Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center has been developing a performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) methodology, which is based on explicit determination of performance, e.g., monetary losses, in a probabilistic manner where uncertainties in earthquake ground motion, structural response, damage estimation, and losses are explicitly considered. To carry out the PEER PBEE procedure for a component of the nuclear power plant (NPP) such as the cable tray system, hazard curve and spectra were defined for two hazard levels of the ground motions, namely, operation basis earthquake, and safe shutdown earthquake. Accordingly, two sets of spectral compatible ground motions were selected for dynamic analysis of the cable tray system. In general, the PBEE analysis of the cable tray in NPP was introduced where the resulting floor motions from the time history analysis (THA) of the NPP structure should be used as the input motion to the cable tray. However, for simplicity, a finite element model of the cable tray was developed for THA under the effect of the selected ground motions. Based on the structural analysis results, fragility curves were generated in terms of specific engineering demand parameters. Loss analysis was performed considering monetary losses corresponding to the predefined damage states. Then, overall losses were evaluated for different damage groups using the PEER PBEE methodology.