• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제49권2호
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• pp.360-372
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• 2017

Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general) for the postulated transient event.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.323-335
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• 2017

A simplified framework for the probabilistic estimation of economic losses induced by the structural vulnerability in single-story and single-bay precast industrial buildings is presented. The simplifications introduced in the framework are oriented to the definition of an expeditious procedure adoptable by government agencies and insurance companies for preliminary risk assessment. The economic losses are evaluated considering seismic hazard, structural response, damage resulting from the structural vulnerability and only structural-vulnerability-induced e]conomic losses, i.e., structural repair or reconstruction costs (stock and flow costs) and content losses induced by structural collapse. The uncertainties associated with each step are accounted for via Monte Carlo simulations. The estimation results in a probabilistic description of the seismic risk of portal-like industrial buildings, expressed in terms of economic losses for each occurrence (i.e., seismic event) that owners (i.e., insured) and stakeholders can use to make risk management decisions. The outcome may also be useful for the definition of the insurance premiums and the evaluation of the risks and costs for the owner corresponding to the insurance industrial costs. A prototype of a precast concrete industrial building located in Mirandola, Italy, hit by the 2012 Emilia earthquake, is used as an example of the application of the procedure.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제55권2호
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• pp.93-102
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• 2018

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) has been used in shipping and offshore industries for many years, supporting the decision-making process to guarantee safe running at different stages of design, fabrication and throughout service life. The assessments of a risk perspective are informed by the frequency of events (probability) and the associated consequences. As the number of offshore platforms increases, so does the length of subsea pipelines, thus there is a need to extend this approach and enable the subsea industry to place more emphasis on uncertainties. On-board operations can lead to objects being dropped on subsea pipelines, which can cause leaks and other pipeline damage. This study explains how to conduct hit frequency analyses of subsea pipelines, using historical data, and how to obtain a finite number of scenarios for the consequences analysis. An example study using probabilistic methods is used.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제52권12호
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• pp.705-712
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• 2003

In this paper, we propose new unified methodologies of reliability and its cost evaluation in power distribution systems. The unified method means that the proposed reliability approaches consider both conventional evaluation factor, i.e. sustained interruptions and additional ones, i.e. momentary interruptions and voltage sags. Because the three voltage quality phenomena generally originate from the outages on distribution systems, the basic and additional reliability indices are summarized considering the fault clearing mechanism. The proposed unified method is divided into the reliability evaluation for calculating the reliability indices and reliability cost evaluation for assessing the damage of customer. The analytic and probabilistic methodologies are presented for each unified reliability and its cost evaluation. The time sequential Monte Carlo technique is used for the probabilistic method. The proposed DVL(Demand Varying Load) model is added to the reliability cost evaluation substituting the average load model. The proposed methods are tested using the modified RBTS(Roy Billinton Test System) form and historical reliability data of KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation) system. The daily load profile of the each customer type in domestic are gathered for the DVL model. Through the case studies, it is verified that the proposed methods can be effectively applied to the distribution systems for more detail reliability assessment than conventional approaches.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.485-501
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• 2015

Cooling by the flow of water through an embedded cooling pipe has become a common and effective artificial thermal control measure for massive concrete structures. However, an extreme thermal gradient induces significant thermal stress, resulting in thermal cracking. Using a mesoscopic finite-element (FE) mesh, three-phase composites of concrete namely aggregate, mortar matrix and interfacial transition zone (ITZ) are modeled. An equivalent probabilistic model is presented for failure study of concrete by assuming that the material properties conform to the Weibull distribution law. Meanwhile, the correlation coefficient introduced by the statistical method is incorporated into the Weibull distribution formula. Subsequently, a series of numerical analyses are used for investigating the influence of the correlation coefficient on tensile strength and the failure process of concrete based on the equivalent probabilistic model. Finally, as an engineering application, damage and failure behavior of concrete cracks induced by a water-cooling pipe are analyzed in-depth by the presented model. Results show that the random distribution of concrete mechanical parameters and the temperature gradient near water-cooling pipe have a significant influence on the pattern and failure progress of temperature-induced micro-cracking in concrete.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제46권1호
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• pp.11-26
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• 2014

The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk assessment is typically limited, so that the analysis must strongly rely on expert judgments. In this paper, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) framework for handling uncertainties in NPP SPRAs is proposed and applied to an example case study. The main contributions of this paper are two: (i) applying the complete DST framework to SPRA models, showing how to build the Dempster-Shafer structures of the uncertainty parameters based on industry generic data, and (ii) embedding Bayesian updating based on plant specific data into the framework. The results of the application to a case study show that the approach is feasible and effective in (i) describing and jointly propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in SPRA models and (ii) providing 'conservative' bounds on the safety quantities of interest (i.e. Core Damage Frequency, CDF) that reflect the (limited) state of knowledge of the experts about the system of interest.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권2호
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• pp.498-508
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• 2021

Micro reactors are increasingly being considered for utilization as distributed power sources. Hence, the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a direct supercritical-CO₂-cooled fast reactor, called micro modular reactor (MMR), was performed in this study; this reactor was developed using innovative design concepts. It adopted a modular design and passive safety systems to minimize site constraints. As the MMR is in its conceptual design phase, design weaknesses and valuable safety insights could be identified during PSA. Level 1 internal event PSA was carried out involving literature survey, system characterization, identification of initiating events, transient analyses, development of event trees and fault trees, and quantification. The initiating events and scenarios significantly contributing to core damage frequency (CDF) were determined to identify design weaknesses in MMR. The most significant initiating event category contributing to CDF was the transients with the power conversion system initially available category, owing to its relatively high occurrence frequency. Further, an importance analysis revealed that the safety of MMR can be significantly improved by improving the reliability of reactor trip and passive decay heat removal system operation. The findings presented in this paper are expected to contribute toward future applications of PSA for assessing unconventional nuclear reactors in their conceptual design phases.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제16권5호
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• pp.523-532
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• 2019

Different types of gas reservoir such as Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) are among the strategic infrastructures, and have great importance for any government or their private owners. To keep the tank and its contents safe during earthquakes especially if the contents are of hazardous or flammable materials; using seismic protection systems such as base isolator can be considered as an effective solution. However, the major deficiency of this system can be the large deformation in the isolation level which may lead to the failure of bearing system. In this paper, as a solution, the efficacy of an optimally designed combined vibration control system, the combined laminated rubber isolator and rotational friction damper, is investigated to evaluate the enhancement of an existing metal tank response under both far- and near-field earthquakes. Responses like impulsive and convective accelerations, base shear, and sloshing height are studied herein. The probabilistic framework is used to consider the uncertainties in the structural modeling, as well as record-to-record variability. Due to the high calculation cost of probabilistic methods, a simplified structural model is used. By using the Mont-Carlo simulation approach, it is revealed that this combined isolation system is a highly reliable system which provides considerable enhancement in the performance of reservoir, not only leads to the reduction of probability of catastrophic failure of the tank but also decrease the reservoir damage during the earthquake. Moreover, the relative displacement of the isolation level is controlled very well by this combined system.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권8호
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• pp.2933-2940
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• 2022

Approximations such as the delete-term approximation, rare event approximation, and minimal cutset upper bound (MCUB) need to be prudently applied for the quantification of a seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model. Important characteristics of seismic PSA models indicate that preserving the success branches in a primary seismic event tree is necessary. Based on the authors' experience in modeling and quantifying plant-level seismic PSA models, the effects of applying negate-down to the success branches in primary seismic event trees on the quantification results are summarized along with the following three insights gained: (1) there are two competing effects on the MCUB-based quantification results: one tending to increase and the other tending to decrease; (2) the binary decision diagram does not always provide exact quantification results; and (3) it is identified when the exact results will be obtained, and which combination provides more conservative results compared to the others. Complicated interactions occur in Boolean variable manipulation, approximation, and the quantification of a seismic PSA model. The insights presented herein can assist PSA analysts to better understand the important theoretical principles associated with the quantification of seismic PSA models.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제48권5호
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• pp.1280-1290
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• 2016

This paper presents an advanced estimation method for obtaining the probability density functions of a damage parameter for valve leakage detection in a reciprocating pump. The estimation method is based on a comparison of model data which are simulated by using a mathematical model, and experimental data which are measured on the inside and outside of the reciprocating pump in operation. The mathematical model, which is simplified and extended on the basis of previous models, describes not only the normal state of the pump, but also its abnormal state caused by valve leakage. The pressure in the cylinder is expressed as a function of the crankshaft angle, and an additional volume flow rate due to the valve leakage is quantified by a damage parameter in the mathematical model. The change in the cylinder pressure profiles due to the suction valve leakage is noticeable in the compression and expansion modes of the pump. The damage parameter value over 300 cycles is calculated in two ways, considering advance or delay in the opening and closing angles of the discharge valves. The probability density functions of the damage parameter are compared for diagnosis and prognosis on the basis of the probabilistic features of valve leakage.