• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2012년도 학술발표회
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• pp.39-39
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• 2012

Data assimilation techniques have received growing attention due to their capability to improve prediction in various areas. Despite of their potentials, applicable software frameworks to probabilistic approaches and data assimilation are still limited because the most of hydrologic modelling software are based on a deterministic approach. In this study, we developed a hydrological modelling framework for sequential data assimilation, namely MPI-OHyMoS. MPI-OHyMoS allows user to develop his/her own element models and to easily build a total simulation system model for hydrological simulations. Unlike process-based modelling framework, this software framework benefits from its object-oriented feature to flexibly represent hydrological processes without any change of the main library. In this software framework, sequential data assimilation based on the particle filters is available for any hydrologic models considering various sources of uncertainty originated from input forcing, parameters and observations. The particle filters are a Bayesian learning process in which the propagation of all uncertainties is carried out by a suitable selection of randomly generated particles without any assumptions about the nature of the distributions. In MPI-OHyMoS, ensemble simulations are parallelized, which can take advantage of high performance computing (HPC) system. We applied this software framework for several catchments in Japan using a distributed hydrologic model. Uncertainty of model parameters and radar rainfall estimates is assessed simultaneously in sequential data assimilation.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제46권4호
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• pp.201-209
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• 2013

Objectives: The goal of this study was to perform an economic analysis of a primary stenting with drug-eluting stents (DES) compared with bare-metal stents (BMS) in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) admitted through an emergency room (ER) visit in Korea using population-based data. Methods: We employed a cost-minimization method using a decision analytic model with a two-year time period. Model probabilities and costs were obtained from a published systematic review and population-based data from which a retrospective database analysis of the national reimbursement database of Health Insurance Review and Assessment covering 2006 through 2010 was performed. Uncertainty was evaluated using one-way sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Results: Among 513 979 cases with AMI during 2007 and 2008, 24 742 cases underwent stenting procedures and 20 320 patients admitted through an ER visit with primary stenting were identified in the base model. The transition probabilities of DES-to-DES, DES-to-BMS, DES-to-coronary artery bypass graft, and DES-to-balloon were 59.7%, 0.6%, 4.3%, and 35.3%, respectively, among these patients. The average two-year costs of DES and BMS in 2011 Korean won were 11 065 528 won/person and 9 647 647 won/person, respectively. DES resulted in higher costs than BMS by 1 417 882 won/person. The model was highly sensitive to the probability and costs of having no revascularization. Conclusions: Primary stenting with BMS for AMI with an ER visit was shown to be a cost-saving procedure compared with DES in Korea. Caution is needed when applying this finding to patients with a higher level of severity in health status.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제48권1호
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• pp.33-43
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• 2021

Along with the widespread use of pesticides in the world, concerns over human health impacts are rapidly growing. There is a large body of evidence on the relationship between the exposure to pesticides and the elevated rate of chronic diseases such as different types of cancers, diabetes, neurodegenerative disorders like Parkinson, Alzheimer, and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), birth defects, and reproductive disorders. This research assessed the health risk of pesticide residues by the dietary intake of vegetables collected from the agro-based markets of Dhaka, Bangladesh. As some of the banned pesticides were also found in vegetable samples, they may pose a higher risk because of cheaper availability and hence the government of Bangladesh should take strong measures to control these banned pesticides. Five organo phosphorus (chlorpyrifos, parathion, ethion, acephate, fenthion) and two carbamate (carbaryl and carbofuran) pesticide residues were identified in twenty four samples of two common vegetables (tomato and brinjal). The pesticide residues ranged from below a detectable limit (< 0.01) to 0.36 mg·kg^-1. Acephate, chlorpyrifos, ethion, and carbaryl were detected in only one sample, while co-occurrence occurred twice for parathion. Continuous monitoring and strict regulation should be enforced regarding the control of pesticide residues in fresh vegetables and other food commodities in Bangladesh.

• 대한금속재료학회지
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• 제46권9호
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• pp.554-562
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• 2008

The distribution and prediction interval for the misorientation angle of grain boundary at which $Cr_2N$ was precipitated during heating at $900^{\circ}C$ for $10^4$ sec were newly estimated, and followed by the estimation of mathematical and median rank methods. The probability density function of the misorientation angle can be estimated by a statistical analysis. And then the ($1-{\alpha}$)100% prediction interval of misorientation angle obtained by the estimated probability density function. If the estimated probability density function was symmetric then a prediction interval for the misorientation angle could be derived by the estimated probability density function. In the case of non-symmetric probability density function, the prediction interval could be obtained from the cumulative distribution function of the estimated probability density function. In this paper, 95, 99 and 99.73% prediction interval obtained by probability density function method and cumulative distribution function method and compared with the former results by median rank regression or mathematical method.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제76권6호
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• pp.751-763
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• 2020

Available records of recent earthquakes show that near-field earthquakes have different characteristics than far-field earthquakes. In general, most of these unique characteristics of near-fault records can be attributed to their forward directivity. This phenomenon causes the records of ground motion normal to the fault to entail pulses with long periods in the velocity time history. The energy of the earthquake is almost accumulated in these pulses causing large displacements and, accordingly, severe damages in the building. Damage to structures caused by past earthquakes raises the need to assess the chance of future earthquake damage. There are a variety of methods to evaluate building seismic vulnerabilities with different computational cost and accuracy. In the meantime, fragility curves, which defines the possibility of structural damage as a function of ground motion characteristics and design parameters, are more common. These curves express the percentage of probability that the structural response will exceed the allowable performance limit at different seismic intensities. This study aims to obtain the fragility curve for low- and mid-rise structures of reinforced concrete moment frames by incremental dynamic analysis (IDA). These frames were exposed to an ensemble of 18 ground motions (nine records near-faults and nine records far-faults). Finally, after the analysis, their fragility curves are obtained using the limit states provided by HAZUS-MH 2.1. The result shows the near-fault earthquakes can drastically influence the fragility curves of the 6-story building while it has a minimal impact on those of the 3-story building.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제26권8호
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• pp.139-147
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• 2021

건설 분야의 산업재해가 차지하는 비율은 전체 산업의 29%로 고위험군산업에 해당한다. 또한 다양한 공정이 존재하며, 소수의 관리자가 다수의 근로자를 관리하고 감독하는 특성상 위험도 관리가 필수적이다. 따라서 공사의 종류 및 공법에 따라 체계적이고 과학적인 위험도분석 방안을 마련해야 하며, 작업현장의 위험도를 점진적으로 완화하고 개선해야한다. 본 연구에서는 도로 교량공사 공종별 안전사고 발생확률 자료 및 전문가 데이터를 기초로 하고 확률론적 접근 방법인 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 활용하여 신뢰도 있는 위험지수를 산정할 수 있는 방안을 제시하고 평가하였다. 리스크 식별은 도로 교량공사를 토공사, 배수공사, 교량공사로 구분하여 전문가 데이터를 바탕으로 발생가능한 안전사고를 분류하였다. 도로 교량공사의 토공사, 배수공사, 교량공사의 세부공종별로 위험지수를 도출하였다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제37권4호
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• pp.129-138
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• 2022

A new method for injecting cooling water into the Korean research reactor (KRR) in the event of beam tube rupture is proposed in this paper. Moreover, the research evaluates the risk to the reactor core in terms of core damage frequency (CDF). The proposed method maintains the cooling water in the chimney at a certain level in the tank to prevent nuclear fuel damage solely by gravitational coolant feeding from the emergency water supply system (EWSS). This technique does not require sump recirculation operations described in the current procedure for resolving beam tube accidents. The reduction in the risk to the core in the event of beam tube rupture that can be achieved by the proposed change in the cooling water injection design is quantified as follows. 1) The total CDF of the KRR for the proposed design change is approximately 4.17E-06/yr, which is 8.4% lower than the CDF of the current design (4.55E-06/yr). 2) The CDF for beam tube rupture is 7.10E-08/yr, which represents an 84.1% decrease compared with that of the current design (4.49E-07/yr). In addition to this quantitative reduction in risk, the modified cooling water injection design maintains a supply of pure coolant to the EWSS tank. This means that the reactor does not require decontamination after an accident. Thermal hydraulic analysis proves that the water level in the reactor pool does not cause damage to the nuclear fuel cladding after beam tube rupture. This is because the amount of water in the chimney can be regulated by the EWSS function. The EWSS supplies emergency water to the reactor core to compensate for the evaporation of coolant in the core, thus allowing water to cover the fuel assemblies in the reactor core over a sufficient amount of time.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제80권6호
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• pp.645-655
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• 2021

Performance-based reliability analysis is a practical approach to investigate the seismic performance and stochastic nonlinear response of structures considering a random process. This is significant due to the uncertainties involved in every aspect of the analysis. Therefore, the present study aims to evaluate the performance-based reliability within a stochastic finite element (FE) framework for reinforced concrete (RC) shear walls that are considered as one of the most essential elements of structures. To accomplish this purpose, deterministic FE analyses are conducted for both squat and slender shear walls to validate numerical models through experimental results. The presented numerical analysis is performed by using the ABAQUS FE program. Afterwards, a random-effects investigation is carried out to consider the influence of different random variables on the lateral load-top displacement behavior of RC members. Using these results and through utilizing the Monte-Carlo simulation method, stochastic nonlinear analyses are also performed to generate random FE models based on input parameters and their probabilistic distributions. In order to evaluate the reliability of RC walls, failure probabilities and corresponding reliability indices are calculated at life safety and collapse prevention levels of performance as suggested by FEMA 356. Moreover, based on reliability indices, capacity reduction factors are determined subjected to shear for all specimens that are designed according to the ACI 318 Building Code. Obtained results show that the lateral load and the compressive strength of concrete have the highest effects on load-displacement responses compared to those of other random variables. It is also found that the probability of shear failure for the squat wall is slightly lower than that for slender walls. This implies that 𝛽 values are higher in a non-ductile mode of failure. Besides, the reliability of both squat and slender shear walls does not change significantly in the case of varying capacity reduction factors.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.515-530
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• 2021

In a tall reinforced concrete (RC) core wall system subjected to strong ground motions, inelastic behavior near the base as well as mid-height of the wall is possible. Generally, the formation of plastic hinge in a core wall system may lead to extensive damage and significant repairing cost. A new configuration of core structures consisting of buckling restrained braced frames (BRBFs) and RC walls is an interesting idea in tall building seismic design. This concept can be used in the plan configuration of tall core wall systems. In this study, tall buildings with different configurations of combined core systems were designed and analyzed. Nonlinear time history analysis at severe earthquake level was performed and the results were compared for different configurations. The results demonstrate that using enough BRBFs can reduce the large curvature ductility demand at the base and mid-height of RC core wall systems and also can reduce the maximum inter-story drift ratio. For a better investigation of the structural behavior, the probabilistic approach can lead to in-depth insight. Therefore, incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) curves were calculated to assess the performance. Fragility curves at different limit states were then extracted and compared. Mean IDA curves demonstrate better behavior for a combined system, compared with conventional RC core wall systems. Collapse margin ratio for a RC core wall only system and RC core with enough BRBFs were almost 1.05 and 1.92 respectively. Therefore, it appears that using one RC core wall combined with enough BRBF core is an effective idea to achieve more confidence against tall building collapse and the results demonstrated the potential of the proposed system.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.113-130
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• 2023

Hybrid simulation (HS) has attracted community attention in recent years as an efficient and effective experimental technique for structural performance evaluation in size-limited laboratories. Traditional hybrid simulations usually take deterministic properties for their numerical substructures therefore could not account for inherent uncertainties within the engineering structures to provide probabilistic performance assessment. Reliable structural performance evaluation, therefore, calls for stochastic hybrid simulation (SHS) to explicitly account for substructure uncertainties. The experimental design of SHS is explored in this study to account for uncertainties within analytical substructures. Both computational simulation and laboratory experiments are conducted to evaluate the pseudo-random Sobol sequence for the experimental design of SHS. Meta-modeling through polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is established from a computational simulation of a nonlinear single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) structure to evaluate the influence of nonlinear behavior and ground motions uncertainties. A series of hybrid simulations are further conducted in the laboratory to validate the findings from computational analysis. It is shown that the Sobol sequence provides a good starting point for the experimental design of stochastic hybrid simulation. However, nonlinear structural behavior involving stiffness and strength degradation could significantly increase the number of hybrid simulations to acquire accurate statistical estimation for the structural response of interests. Compared with the statistical moments calculated directly from hybrid simulations in the laboratory, the meta-model through PCE gives more accurate estimation, therefore, providing a more effective way for uncertainty quantification.