• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.2
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• pp.411-425
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• 2017

Using a probabilistic safety assessment, a risk evaluation framework for an aircraft crash into an interim spent fuel storage facility is presented. Damage evaluation of a detailed generic cask model in a simplified building structure under an aircraft impact is discussed through a numerical structural analysis and an analytical fragility assessment. Sequences of the impact scenario are shown in a developed event tree, with uncertainties considered in the impact analysis and failure probabilities calculated. To evaluate the influence of parameters relevant to design safety, risks are estimated for three specification levels of cask and storage facility structures. The proposed assessment procedure includes the determination of the loading parameters, reference impact scenario, structural response analyses of facility walls, cask containment, and fuel assemblies, and a radiological consequence analysis with dose-risk estimation. The risk results for the proposed scenario in this study are expected to be small relative to those of design basis accidents for best-estimated conservative values. The importance of this framework is seen in its flexibility to evaluate the capability of the facility to withstand an aircraft impact and in its ability to anticipate potential realistic risks; the framework also provides insight into epistemic uncertainty in the available data and into the sensitivity of the design parameters for future research.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.179-194
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• 2020

A Bayesian approach was introduced to improve the belief of prior distributions of input parameters for the probabilistic safety assessment of radioactive waste repository. A GoldSim-based module was developed using the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm and implemented through GSTSPA (GoldSim Total System Performance Assessment), a GoldSim template for generic/site-specific safety assessment of the radioactive repository system. In this study, sequential Bayesian updating of prior distributions was comprehensively explained and used as a basis to conduct a reliable safety assessment of the repository. The prior distribution to three sequential posterior distributions for several selected parameters associated with nuclide transport in the fractured rock medium was updated with assumed likelihood functions. The process was demonstrated through a probabilistic safety assessment of the conceptual repository for illustrative purposes. Through this study, it was shown that insufficient observed data could enhance the belief of prior distributions for input parameter values commonly available, which are usually uncertain. This is particularly applicable for nuclide behavior in and around the repository system, which typically exhibited a long time span and wide modeling domain.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2003.05a
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• pp.181-186
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• 2003

There are many uncertainties in structural failures or structures, so probabilistic failure cause assessment should be performed in order to consider the uncertainties. However, in many cases of forensic engineering, the failure cause assessments are performed by deterministic approach though number of uncertainties are existed in the failures or structures. Thus, deterministic approach may have possibility for leading to unreasonable and unrealistic failure cause assessment due to ignorance of the uncertainties. Therefore, probabilistic approach is needed to complement the shortcoming of deterministic approach and to perform the more reasonable and realistic failure cause assessment. In this study, reliability-based failure cause assessment (reliability based forensic engineering) is performed, which can incorporate uncertainties in failures and structures. For more practical application, the modified ETA technique is proposed, which automatically generates the defected structural model, performs structural analysis and reliability analysis, and calculates the failure probabilities of the failure events and the occurrence probabilities of the failure scenarios. Also, for more precise reliability analysis, uncertainties are estimated more reasonably by using bayesian approach based on the experimental laboratory testing data in forensic report.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.50 no.3
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• pp.319-326
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• 2018

Since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, concern and worry about multiunit accidents have been increasing. Korea has a higher urgency to evaluate its site risk because its number of nuclear power plants (NPPs) and population density are higher than those in other countries. Since the 1980s, technical documents have been published on multiunit probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), but the Fukushima accident accelerated research on multiunit PSA. It is therefore necessary to summarize the present situation and draw implications for further research. This article reviews journal and conference papers on multiunit or site risk evaluation published between 2011 and 2016. The contents of the reviewed literature are classified as research status, initiators, and methodologies representing dependencies, and the insights and conclusions are consolidated. As of 2017, the regulatory authority and nuclear power utility have launched a full-scale project to assess multiunit risk in Korea. This article provides comprehensive reference materials on the necessary enabling technology for subsequent studies of multiunit or site risk assessment.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.30 no.11 s.254
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• pp.1417-1424
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• 2006

In order to evaluate variation of fatigue life of mechanical components including engineering plastics, it is important to estimate probabilistic strain-life curves to accurately define the variation of fatigue characteristics. This paper intends to provide new assessment of P-$\varepsilon$-N (probabilistic strain-life curves) for considering the variation of fatigue characteristics in polyacetal. The fatigue strain controlled tests were conducted under constant 50% humidity and room temperature condition by a universal testing machine at strain ratio, R=0. A practical procedure is introduced to evaluate probabilistic strain-life curves. Three probabilistic distributions were used for generating P-$\varepsilon$-N curves such as normal, 2-parameter and 3-parameter Weibull. In this study, 3-parameter Weibull distribution was found to be most appropriate among assumed distributions when the probability distributions of the fatigue characteristic were examined using chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The more appropriate P-$\varepsilon$-N curves for these materials are generated by the proposed method considering 3-parameter Weibull distribution.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.55 no.3
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• pp.75-84
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• 2013

The seepage quantity analysis of reservoir embankment is very important for assessment of embankment safety. However, the conventional analysis does not consider uncertainty of soil properties. Permeability is known that the coefficient of variation is larger than other soil properties and seepage quantity is highly dependent on the permeability of embankment. Therefore, probabilistic analysis should be carried out for seepage analysis. To designers, however, the probabilistic analysis is not an easy task. In this paper, the method that can be performed probabilistic analysis easily and efficiently through the numerical analysis based commercial program is proposed. Stochastic response surface method is used for approximate the limit state function and when estimating the coefficients, the moving least squares method is applied in order to reduce local error. The probabilistic analysis is performed by LHC-MCS through the response surface. This method was applied to two type (homogeneous, core zone) earth dams and permeability of embankment body and core are considered as random variables. As a result, seepage quantity was predicted effectively by response surface and probabilistic analysis could be successfully implemented.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2000.10b
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• pp.1043-1048
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• 2000

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.21 no.12
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• pp.109-118
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• 2004

Life cycle assessment (LCA) usually involves some uncertainty. These uncertainties are generally divided in two categories such lack of data and data inaccuracy in life cycle inventory (LCI). This paper explo.es a methodology on dealing with uncertainty due to lack of data in LCI. In order to treat uncertainty of LCI data, a model for data uncertainty is proposed. The model works with probabilistic curves as inputs and with Monte Carlo Simulation techniques to propagate uncertainty. The probabilistic curves were derived from the results of survey in expert network and Monte Carlo Simulation was performed using the derived probabilistic curves. The results of Monte Carlo Simulation were verified by statistical test. The proposed approach should serve as a guide to improve data quality and deal with uncertainty of LCI data in LCA projects.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2001.04a
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• pp.667-670
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• 2001

For major structural components periodic inspections and integrity assessments are needed for the safety. However, many flaws are undetectable because sampling inspection is carried out during in-service inspection. Probabilistic integrity assessment is applied to take into consideration of uncertainty and variance of input parameters arise due to material properties and undetectable cracks. This paper describes a Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics(PEM) analysis based on the Monte Carlo(MC) algorithms. Taking a number of sampling data of probabilistic variables such as fracture toughness value, crack depth and aspect ratio of an initial surface crack, a MC simulation of failure judgement of samples is performed. For the verification of this analysis, a comparison study of th PFM analysis using a commercial code, mathematical method is carried out and a good agreement was observed between those results.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.305-313
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• 2017

A robust finite element based reinforced concrete bridge deck corrosion initiation model is applied for time-dependent probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The model is focused on uncertainties in the governing parameters that include variation of high performance concrete (HPC) diffusion coefficients, concrete cover depth, surface chloride concentration, holidays in reinforcements, coatings and critical chloride threshold level in several steel reinforcements. The corrosion initiation risk is expressed in the form of probability over intended life span of the bridge deck. Conducted study shows the time-dependent sensitivity analysis to evaluate the significance of governing parameters on chloride ingress rate, various steel reinforcement protection and the corrosion initiation likelihood. Results from this probabilistic analysis provide better insight into the effect of input parameters variation on the estimate of the corrosion initiation risk for the design of concrete structures in harsh chloride environments.