• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic assessment

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Preliminary Post-closure Safety Assessment of Disposal System for Disused Sealed Radioactive Source (폐밀봉선원 처분시스템 예비 폐쇄후 안전성평가)

  • Lee, Seunghee;Kim, Juyoul
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.33-48
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    • 2017
  • An optimum disposal plan of disused sealed radioactive sources (DSRSs) should be established to ensure long-term disposal safety at the low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste (LILW) disposal facility in Gyeongju. In this study, an optimum disposal system was suggested and preliminary post-closure safety assessment was performed. The DSRSs disposal system was composed of a rock cavern and near surface disposal facilities at the Gyeongju LILW disposal facility. The assessment was conducted using GoldSim program, and probabilistic assessment and sensitivity analysis were implemented to evaluate the uncertainties in the input parameters of natural barriers. Deterministic and probabilistic calculations indicated that the maximum dose was below the regulatory limits ($0.1mSvyr^{-1}$ for the normal scenario, $1mSvyr^{-1}$ for the well scenario). It was concluded that the DSRSs disposal system would maintain environmental safety over a long-time. Moreover, the partition coefficient of Np in host rock, Darcy velocity in host rock, and density of the host rock were the most sensitive parameters in predicting exposure dose in the safety assessment.

Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Nuclear Power Plants Using Alpha Factor Method for Common Cause Failure (알파모수 공통원인고장 평가 기법을 활용한 원자력발전소 안전성 평가)

  • Hwang, Seok-Won
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.51-55
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    • 2014
  • Based on the results of Probabilistic Safety Assessment(PSA) for a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), Common Cause Failure(CCF) events have been recognized as one of the main contributors to the risk. Also, the CCF data and estimation method used in domestic PSA models have been pointed out as an issue with respect to the quality. The existing method of MGL and non-staggered testing even widely used were considered conservative in estimating the safety and had a limited capability in uncertainty analyses. Therefore, this paper presents the CCF estimation using a new generic data source and Alpha factor method. The analyses showed that Alpha factor and staggered method are effective in estimating the CCF contribution and risk insights of reference plant. This method will be a common bases for the optimization of new design for the construction plants as well as for the updating of safety assessment on the operating nuclear power plants.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment System Model and Methods for Construction Projects (건설공사의 확률적 위험도분석 시스템 모형 및 해석방법)

  • 조효남;최현호;김윤배
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 1999.04a
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    • pp.3-10
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    • 1999
  • This paper presents probabilistic risk assessment system model and methods for general construction projects and demonstrates the applicability of the approach to a specific subway construction project. The proposed system model entitled Integrated Risk Assessment System(IRAS) for construction projects is composed of four steps, which is newly reorganized and improved in order to be easily adjusted for a systematic PRA of construction projects. Based on the proposed model, and integrated prototype software is then developing for computer-aided PRA of construction projects under the environment of the graphic-user interface, which will be successfully applied to construction projects.

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Insights from the KNGR Preliminary Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment

  • Na, Jang-Hwan;Oh, Hae-Cheol;Oh, Seung-Jong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1998.05a
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    • pp.862-868
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    • 1998
  • Korean Next Generation Reactor(KNGR) is a standardized evolutionary Advanced Light Water Reactor design under development Korea Power Company(KEPCO). It incorporates design enhncements such as active and passive advanced design features(ADFs) to increase the plant safety. A Preliminary level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment(PSA) has been performed for KNGR to examine the effect of these safety features. The preliminary PSA result shows that it meets the KNGR safety goal on core damage frequency(CDF). The result of this safety assessment shows that the four-train safety systems, and the ADFs such as Passive Secondary Cooling System (PSCS) contributes greatly to the reduction the CDF. Furthermore, several design changes are made or proposed for detailed review based on the PSA insights.

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AGAPE-ET: A Predictive Human Error Analysis Methodology for Emergency Tasks in Nuclear Power Plants (원자력발전소 비상운전 직무의 인간오류분석 및 평가 방법 AGAPE-ET의 개발)

  • 김재환;정원대
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.104-118
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    • 2003
  • It has been criticized that conventional human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies for probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) have been focused on the quantification of human error probability (HEP) without detailed analysis of human cognitive processes such as situation assessment or decision-making which are crticial to successful response to emergency situations. This paper introduces a new human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology, AGAPE-ET (A guidance And Procedure for Human Error Analysis for Emergency Tasks), focused on the qualitative error analysis of emergency tasks from the viewpoint of the performance of human cognitive function. The AGAPE-ET method is based on the simplified cognitive model and a taxonomy of influencing factors. By each cognitive function, error causes or error-likely situations have been identified considering the characteristics of the performance of each cognitive function and influencing mechanism of PIFs on the cognitive function. Then, overall human error analysis process is designed considering the cognitive demand of the required task. The application to an emergency task shows that the proposed method is useful to identify task vulnerabilities associated with the performance of emergency tasks.

PRA: A PERSPECTIVE ON STRENGTHS, CURRENT LIMITATIONS, AND POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENTS

  • Mosleh, Ali
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2014
  • Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been used in various technological fields to assist regulatory agencies, managerial decision makers, and systems designers in assessing and mitigating the risks inherent in these complex arrangements. Has PRA delivered on its promise? How do we gage PRA performance? Are our expectations about value of PRA realistic? Are there disparities between what we get and what we think we are getting form PRA and its various derivatives? Do current PRAs reflect the knowledge gained from actual events? How do we address potential gaps? These are some of the questions that have been raised over the years since the inception of the field more than forty years ago. This paper offers a brief assessment of PRA as a technical discipline in theory and practice, its key strengths and weaknesses, and suggestions on ways to address real and perceived shortcomings.

Development of an earthquake-induced landslide risk assessment approach for nuclear power plants

  • Kwag, Shinyoung;Hahm, Daegi
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.8
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    • pp.1372-1386
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    • 2018
  • Despite recent advances in multi-hazard analysis, the complexity and inherent nature of such problems make quantification of the landslide effect in a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of NPPs challenging. Therefore, in this paper, a practical approach was presented for performing an earthquake-induced landslide PSA for NPPs subject to seismic hazard. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to Korean typical NPP in Korea as a numerical example. The assessment result revealed the quantitative probabilistic effects of peripheral slope failure and subsequent run-out effect on the risk of core damage frequency (CDF) of a NPP during the earthquake event. Parametric studies were conducted to demonstrate how parameters for slope, and physical relation between the slope and NPP, changed the CDF risk of the NPP. Finally, based on these results, the effective strategies were suggested to mitigate the CDF risk to the NPP resulting from the vulnerabilities inherent in adjacent slopes. The proposed approach can be expected to provide an effective framework for performing the earthquake-induced landslide PSA and decision support to increase NPP safety.

Machine learning-based categorization of source terms for risk assessment of nuclear power plants

  • Jin, Kyungho;Cho, Jaehyun;Kim, Sung-yeop
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.9
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    • pp.3336-3346
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    • 2022
  • In general, a number of severe accident scenarios derived from Level 2 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) are typically grouped into several categories to efficiently evaluate their potential impacts on the public with the assumption that scenarios within the same group have similar source term characteristics. To date, however, grouping by similar source terms has been completely reliant on qualitative methods such as logical trees or expert judgements. Recently, an exhaustive simulation approach has been developed to provide quantitative information on the source terms of a large number of severe accident scenarios. With this motivation, this paper proposes a machine learning-based categorization method based on exhaustive simulation for grouping scenarios with similar accident consequences. The proposed method employs clustering with an autoencoder for grouping unlabeled scenarios after dimensionality reductions and feature extractions from the source term data. To validate the suggested method, source term data for 658 severe accident scenarios were used. Results confirmed that the proposed method successfully characterized the severe accident scenarios with similar behavior more precisely than the conventional grouping method.

Derivation of Ecological Protective Concentration using the Probabilistic Ecological Risk Assessment applicable for Korean Water Environment: (I) Cadmium

  • Nam, Sun-Hwa;Lee, Woo-Mi;An, Youn-Joo
    • Toxicological Research
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.129-137
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    • 2012
  • Probabilistic ecological risk assessment (PERA) for deriving ecological protective concentration (EPC) was previously suggested in USA, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Netherland. This study suggested the EPC of cadmium (Cd) based on the PERA to be suitable to Korean aquatic ecosystem. First, we collected reliable ecotoxicity data from reliable data without restriction and reliable data with restrictions. Next, we sorted the ecotoxicity data based on the site-specific locations, exposure duration, and water hardness. To correct toxicity by the water hardness, EU's hardness corrected algorithm was used with slope factor 0.89 and a benchmark of water hardness 100. EPC was calculated according to statistical extrapolation method (SEM), statistical extrapolation $method_{Acute\;to\;chronic\;ratio}$ ($SEM_{ACR}$), and assessment factor method (AFM). As a result, aquatic toxicity data of Cd were collected from 43 acute toxicity data (4 Actinopterygill, 29 Branchiopoda, 1 Polychaeta, 2 Bryozoa, 6 Chlorophyceae, 1 Chanophyceae) and 40 chronic toxicity data (2 Actinopterygill, 23 Branchiopoda, 9 Chlorophyceae, 6 Macrophytes). Because toxicity data of Cd belongs to 4 classes in taxonomical classification, acute and chronic EPC (11.07 ${\mu}g/l$ and 0.034 ${\mu}g/l$, respectively) was calculated according to SEM technique. These values were included in the range of international EPCs. This study would be useful to establish the ecological standard for the protection of aquatic ecosystem in Korea.

A Study on the Constructions of Fire Events Probabilistic Safety Assessment Model for Nuclear Power Plants (원자력발전소의 화재사건 확률론적안전성평가 모델 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Dae Il;Kim, Kilyoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.187-194
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    • 2016
  • A single fire event within a fire area can cause multiple initiating events considered in internal events probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). For an example, a fire event in turbine building fire area can cause a loss of the main feed-water and loss of off-site power initiating events. This fire initiating event could result in special plant responses beyond the scope of the internal events PSA model. One approach to address a fire initiating event is to develop a specific fire event tree. However, the development of a specific fire event tree is difficult since the number of fire event trees may be several hundreds or more. Thus, internal fire events PSA model has been generally constructed by modifications of the pre-developed internal events PSA model. New accident sequence logics not covered in the internal events PSA model are separately developed to incorporate them into the fire PSA model. Recently, many fire PSA models have fire induced initiating event fault trees not shown in an internal event PSA model. Up to now, there has been no analytical comparative study on the constructions of fire events PSA model using internal events PSA model with and without fault trees of initiating events. In this study, the changing process of internal events PSA model to fire events PSA model is analytically presented and discussed.