• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.744-750
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• 2009

According to the result of related studies, the degradation of human performance has been revealed as one of the most significant causes resulting in the safety of any human-involved system. This means that preventing the occurrence of accidents/incidents through avoiding the degradation of human performance is prerequisite for their successive operation. To this end, it is necessary to develop a plausible tool to evaluate the complexity of a task, which has been known as one of the decisive factors affecting the human performance. For this reason, in this paper, the complexity of tasks to be conducted by KTX drivers was quantified by TACOM measure that is enable to quantify the complexity of proceduralized tasks being used in nuclear power plants. After that, TACOM scores about the tasks of KTX drivers were compared with NASA-TLX scores that are responsible for the level of a subjective workload to be felt by KTX drivers.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.72-79
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• 2015

An efficient and practical reliability evaluation method is proposed for the coastal structures in this paper. It is capable of evaluating reliability of real complicated coastal structures considering uncertainties in various sources of design parameters, such as wave and current loads, resistance-related design variables including Young's modulus and compressive strength of the reinforced concrete, soil parameters, and boundary conditions. It is developed by intelligently integrating the Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS), Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and the finite element method (FEM). The LHS-based MCS is used to significantly reduce the computational effort by limiting the number of simulation cycles required for the reliability evaluation. The applicability and efficiency of the proposed method were verified using a caisson-type breakwater structure in the numerical example.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.25-36
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• 2018

Soil liquefaction is one of the types of major seismic damage. Soil liquefaction is a phenomenon that can cause enormous human and economic damages, and it must be examined before designing geotechnical structures. In this study, we proposed a practical method of developing a multi-hazard fragility surface for liquefaction of levee considering earthquake magnitude and water level. Limit state for liquefaction of levee was defined by liquefaction potential index (LPI), which is frequently used to assess the liquefaction susceptibility of soils. In order to consider the uncertainty of soil properties, Monte Carlo Simulation based probabilistic analysis was performed. Based on the analysis results, a 3D fragility surface representing the probability of failure by soil liquefaction as a function of the ground motion and water level has been established. The prepared multi-hazard fragility surface can be used to evaluate the safety of levees against liquefaction and to assess the risk in earthquake and flood prone areas.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.7 no.5
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• pp.167-176
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• 2006

It was found that Korean Standard of Estimate which has been used as the only basis of cost estimate of public construction projects had some side effects such as jerry-build construction and over-estimation because it failed to reflect the current price and the state-of-the-art construction methods in a changing construction environment. Therefore, the government decided to gradually introduce historical construction cost into cost estimate of public construction projects from 2004. This paper presents analytic criteria and a process model for deducing more current and reasonable historical construction cost for contract items from not only previous contract prices but also all of the other bid prices that were not contracted. The procedure of estimating actual unit cost proposed in this paper focuses on the removal of abnormal values including strategically too low or high prices and the time correction. In addition, basic research is conducted for the correction of actual unit cost through the analysis of fluctuation of bid price depending on bidding types and rates of successful bid. It is anticipated that the effective use of the proposed process model for estimating actual unit cost would make the cost estimation more current and reasonable.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.10
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• pp.879-889
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• 2014

In this study, to estimate loss of life considered flood characteristics using the relationship derived from analysis of historical dam break cases and the factors determining loss of life, the loss of life module applying in LIFESim and loss of life estimation by means of a mortality function were suggested and applicability for domestic dam watershed was examined. The flood characteristics, such as water depth, flow velocity and arrival time were simulated by FLDWAV model and flood risk area were predicted by using inundation depth. Based on this, the effects of warning, evacuation and shelter were considered to estimate the number of people exposed to the flood. In order to estimate fatality rates based on the exposed population, flood hazard zone is assigned to three different zones. Then, total fatality numbers were predicted after determining lethality or mortality function for each zone. In the future, the prediction of loss of life due to dam break floods will quantitatively evaluate flood risk and employ to establish flood mitigation measures at downstream applying probabilistic flood scenarios.

• Journal of Conservation Science
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• v.37 no.5
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• pp.505-515
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• 2021

In this study, we evaluated the slope stability of the Pohang Daljeon-ri columnar joint (Natural Monuments # 415) and calculated the maximum energy, jumping height and moving distance of rockfalls using a simulation. Based on the results, we established the range of rockfall risk. The slopes of the Pohang Daljeon-ri columnar joint have dip directions of 93.79°, 131.99°, 165.54° and 259.84° from left (SW) to right (NE). Furthermore, they have a fan-like shape. The Pohang Daljeon-ri columnar joints are divided into four sections depending on the dip direction. The measurement results of the discontinuous face show that zone 1 is 125, zone 2 is 261, zone 3 is 262, zone 4 is 43. The results of slope stability analyses for each section using a stereographic projection method correspond to the range of planar and toppling failure. Although it is difficult to diagnose the type of failure, risk evaluation of currently falling rocks requires further focus. The maximum movement distance of a rockfall in the simulation was approximately 66 m and the rockfall risk range was the entire area under slope. In addition, it is difficult to forecast where a rock will fall as it rolls in various directions due to topographic factors. Thus, the installation of measures to prevent falling is suggested to secure the stability based on the results of the rockfall simulations and its probabilistic analysis.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.207-232
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• 2011

The development of reliable earthquake mitigation plans and seismic risk management procedures can only be based on the establishment of comprehensive earthquake hazard and loss scenarios. Two cities, Grevena (Greece) and D$\ddot{u}$zce (Turkey), were used as case studies in order to apply a comprehensive methodology for the vulnerability and loss assessment of lifelines. The methodology has the following distinctive phases: detailed inventory, identification of the typology of each component and system, evaluation of the probabilistic seismic hazard, geotechnical zonation, ground response analysis and estimation of the spatial distribution of seismic motion for different seismic scenarios, vulnerability analysis of the exposed elements at risk. Estimating adequate earthquake scenarios for different mean return periods, and selecting appropriate vulnerability functions, expected damages of the water and waste water systems in D$\ddot{u}$zce and of the roadway network and waste water system of Grevena are estimated and discussed; comparisons with observed earthquake damages are also made in the case of D$\ddot{u}$zce, proving the reliability and the efficiency of the proposed methodology. The results of the present study constitute a sound basis for the development of efficient loss scenarios for lifelines and infrastructure facilities in seismic prone areas. The first part of this paper, concerning the estimation of the seismic ground motions, has been utilized in the companion paper by Kappos et al. (2010) in the same journal.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.27-40
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• 2022

Every year landslides cause serious casualties and property damages around the world. As the accurate prediction of landslides is important to reduce the fatalities and economic losses, various approaches have been developed to predict them. Prediction methods can be divided into landslide susceptibility analysis, landslide hazard analysis and landslide risk analysis according to the type of the conditioning factors, the predicted level of the landslide dangers, and whether the expected consequence cased by landslides were considered. Landslide susceptibility analyses are mainly based on the available landslide data and consequently, they predict the likelihood of landslide occurrence by considering factors that can induce landslides and analyzing the spatial distribution of these factors. Various qualitative and quantitative analysis techniques have been applied to landslide susceptibility analysis. Recently, quantitative susceptibility analyses have predominantly employed the physically based model due to high predictive capacity. This is because the physically based approaches use physical slope model to analyze slope stability regardless of prior landslide occurrence. This approach can also reproduce the physical processes governing landslide occurrence. This review examines physically based landslide susceptibility analysis approaches.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.10
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• pp.5125-5129
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• 2012

Economic decision models are being increasingly used to assess medical interventions. Advances in this field are mainly due to enhanced processing capacity of computers, availability of specific software to perform the necessary tasks, and refined mathematical techniques. We here estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness of ten strategies for colon cancer screening, as well as no screening, incorporating quality of life, noncompliance and data on the costs and profit of chemotherapy in Iran. We used a Markov model to measure the costs and quality-adjusted life expectancy of a 50-year-old average-risk Iranian without screening and with screening by each test. In this paper, we tested the model with data from the Ministry of Health and published literature. We considered costs from the perspective of a health insurance organization, with inflation to 2011, the Iranian Rial being converted into US dollars. We focused on three tests for the 10 strategies considered currently being used for population screening in some Iranians provinces (Kerman, Golestan Mazandaran, Ardabil, and Tehran): low-sensitivity guaiac fecal occult blood test, performed annually; fecal immunochemical test, performed annually; and colonoscopy, performed every 10 years. These strategies reduced the incidence of colorectal cancer by 39%, 60% and 76%, and mortality by 50%, 69% and 78%, respectively, compared with no screening. These approaches generated ICER (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios) of $9067, $654 and $8700 per QALY (quality-adjusted life year), respectively. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the influence of various scales on the economic evaluation of screening. The results were sensitive to probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Colonoscopy every ten years yielded the greatest net health value. Screening for colon cancer is economical and cost-effective over conventional levels of WTP8.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.53-64
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• 2010

Seismic fragility curves of structures represent the probability of exceeding the prescribed structural damage state for a given various levels of ground motion intensity, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA). This means that seismic fragility curves are essential to the evaluation of structural seismic performance and assessments of risk. Most of existing studies have not considered the near- and far-fault earthquake effect on the seismic fragility curves. In order to evaluate the effect of near- and far-fault earthquakes, seismic fragility curves for PSC box girder bridges subjected to near- and far-fault earthquakes are calculated and compared. The seismic fragility curves are strongly dependent on the earthquake characteristics such as fault distance. This paper suggests that the effect of near- and far-fault earthquakes on seismic fragility curves of PSC box girder bridge structure should be considered.