• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• 제32권1호
• /
• pp.167-178
• /
• 2009

Initial imperfections, such as initial deflection or remaining stress, cause deterioration of buckling strength of structures. The Koiter imperfection sensitivity law has been extended to describe the mechanism of reduction for structures. The extension is twofold: (1) a number of imperfections are considered, and (2) the second order (minor) imperfections are implemented, in addition to the first order (major) imperfections considered in the Koiter law. Yet, in reality, the variation of external loads is dominant over that of imperfection. In this research, probabilistic evaluation of buckling loads against external loads subjected to probabilistic variation is conducted by extending the concept of imperfection sensitivity. A truss arch subjected to dead and live loads is considered as a numerical example. The mechanism of probabilistic variation of buckling strength of this arch is described by the proposed method, and its reliability is evaluated.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국콘크리트학회 2006년도 춘계 학술발표회 논문집(II)
• /
• pp.181-184
• /
• 2006

Traditional durability analysis is not possible to provide a controlled durability and long-term performance of concrete structures. Recently, research works have shown that probabilistic approach based on the theory of structural reliability, would be very valuable for durability analysis. In this study, the probabilistic durability analysis based on a Monte Carlo Simulation was carried out using sample data selected from detailed field investigation. The probabilistic properties of some design variables, such as diffusion coefficients of concrete and surface chloride concentration, were newly determined using some experimental data. By applying a probabilistic durability analysis to an integral structural design, the durability performance of concrete structures would be remarkably improved.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• 제4권5호
• /
• pp.527-555
• /
• 2013

This paper proposes probabilistic models for estimating the seismic demands on reinforced concrete (RC) bridges with base isolation. The models consider the shear and deformation demands on the bridge columns and the deformation demand on the isolation devices. An experimental design is used to generate a population of bridges based on the AASHTO LRFD Bridge Design Specifications (AASHTO 2007) and the Caltrans' Seismic Design Criteria (Caltrans 1999). Ground motion records are used for time history analysis of each bridge to develop probabilistic models that are practical and are able to account for the uncertainties and biases in the current, common deterministic model. As application of the developed probabilistic models, a simple method is provided to determine the fragility of bridges. This work facilitates the reliability-based design for this type of bridges and contributes to the transition from limit state design to performance-based design.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제9권5호
• /
• pp.1520-1526
• /
• 2014

This paper presents a probabilistic method to evaluate the total transfer capability (TTC) by considering the sequential quadratic programming and the uncertainty of weather conditions. After the initial TTC is calculated by sequential quadratic programming (SQP), the transient stability is checked by time simulation. Also because power systems are exposed to a variety of weather conditions the outage probability is increased due to the weather condition. The probabilistic approach is necessary to evaluate the TTC, and the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is used to accomplish the probabilistic calculation of TTC by considering the various weather conditions.

• 시스템엔지니어링학술지
• /
• 제17권2호
• /
• pp.82-90
• /
• 2021

The spent fuel pool (SFP) of a nuclear power plant functions to store the spent fuel. The spent fuel pool is designed to properly remove the decay heat generated from the spent fuel. If the cooling function is lost and proper operator action is not taken, the spent fuel in the storage pool can be damaged. Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is a safety evaluation method that can evaluate the risk of a large and complex system. So far, the probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants has been mainly performed on the reactor. This study defined the requirements and the functional architecture for the probabilistic safety assessment of the spent fuel pool (SFP-PSA) by applying the systems engineering process. And, a systematic and efficient methodology was defined according to the architecture.

• ETRI Journal
• /
• 제34권5호
• /
• pp.783-786
• /
• 2012

This letter proposes a more advanced joint maximum a posteriori (MAP) adaptation using a prior model based on a probabilistic scheme utilizing the bilinear transformation (BIT) concept. The proposed method not only has scalable parameters but is also based on a single prior distribution without the heuristic parameters of the previous joint BIT-MAP method. Experiment results, irrespective of the amount of adaptation data, show that the proposed method leads to a consistent improvement over the previous method.

• 대한전기학회논문지
• /
• 제32권10호
• /
• pp.360-366
• /
• 1983

In this paper, operation cost of the system is calculated by the probabilistic simulation method. And it is proved that only 20 iterative simulations are enough to get the result obtain by the Monte Carlo simulation method which requires more than 1000 iterative simulations. In the probabilistic simulation method we use the ranking of line contingency which is derived from the line countingency selection algorithm proposed in (2). In using this method the nature of the sparsity of the power system is used.

• Steel and Composite Structures
• /
• 제15권1호
• /
• pp.15-39
• /
• 2013

The sensitivities of a structural response due to variation of its design parameters are prerequisite in the majority of the algorithms used for fundamental problems in engineering as system uncertainties, identification and probabilistic assessments etc. The paper presents the concept of probabilistic sensitivity of suspension bridges with respect to near-fault ground motion. In near field earthquake ground motions, large amplitude spectral accelerations can occur at long periods where many suspension bridges have significant structural response modes. Two different types of suspension bridges, which are Bosporus and Humber bridges, are selected to investigate the near-fault ground motion effects on suspension bridges random response sensitivity analysis. The modulus of elasticity is selected as random design variable. Strong ground motion records of Kocaeli, Northridge and Erzincan earthquakes are selected for the analyses. The stochastic sensitivity displacements and internal forces are determined by using the stochastic sensitivity finite element method and Monte Carlo simulation method. The stochastic sensitivity displacements and responses obtained from the two different suspension bridges subjected to these near-fault strong-ground motions are compared with each other. It is seen from the results that near-fault ground motions have different impacts stochastic sensitivity responses of suspension bridges. The stochastic sensitivity information provides a deeper insight into the structural design and it can be used as a basis for decision-making.

• 한국정밀공학회지
• /
• 제22권10호
• /
• pp.158-166
• /
• 2005

Pressurized gas pipeline is subject to harmful effects both of the surrounding environment and of the materials transmitted in them. In order to maintain the integrity, reliable assessment procedures including tincture mechanics analysis etc are required. Up to now, the integrity assessment has been performed using conventional deterministic approaches even though there are many uncertainties to hinder a rational evaluation. In this respect, probabilistic approach is considered as an appropriate method for gas pipeline evaluation. The objectives of this paper are to estimate the failure probability of corroded pipeline in gas and oil plants and to propose limited operating conditions under different types of leadings. To do this, a probabilistic assessment program using reliability index and simulation techniques was developed and applied to evaluate failure probabilities of corroded API-5L-X52/X60 gas pipelines subjected to internal pressure, bending moment and combined loading. The evaluation results showed a promising applicability of the probabilistic integrity assessment program.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제9권2호
• /
• pp.461-470
• /
• 2014

This paper presents a probabilistic power flow (PPF) analysis method for distribution network incorporating the randomness and correlation of photovoltaic (PV) generation. Based on the multivariate kernel density estimation theory, the probabilistic model of PV generation is proposed without any assumption of theoretical parametric distribution, which can accurately capture not only the randomness but also the correlation of PV resources at adjacent locations. The PPF method is developed by combining the proposed PV model and Monte Carlo technique to evaluate the influence of the randomness and correlation of PV generation on the performance of distribution networks. The historical power output data of three neighboring PV generators in Oregon, USA, and 34-bus/69-bus radial distribution networks are used to demonstrate the correctness, effectiveness, and application of the proposed PV model and PPF method.