• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic LCC

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Probability- based Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Railroad Structures (확률적 방법에 의한 철도시설물의 LCC 분석)

  • Sho Byung-Choon;Choi Young-Min;Cho Sun-Kyu;Shin Kyung-Chul;Jung Jae-Dong
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.971-976
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    • 2004
  • The management of railroad structures is more difficult and complicate because there are many structures such as rail, bridge, tunnel, station, and so on. Therefore, LCC(Life Cycle Cost) analysis of railroad structures as public infrastructure must contain a maintenance cost as well as an initial cost in order to make a more effective management during the life cycle on the design phase. This paper presents a cost classification scheme considering user costs such as value of delayed time of passenger and freight. Also, in this study it is developed a probabilistic life cycle cost(PLCC) analysis model of railroad structures taking into account uncertainties and variations of input variables in order to analyze LCC. It may be stated that the model proposed in this study can greatly contribute to the making optimal decision, the estimate of the maintenance cost and the allocate of budget in the project of railroad structures.

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Optimal Section of Ballasted Asphalt Track Considering Design Lifetime and Economic Feasibility (설계수명 및 경제성을 고려한 유도상 아스팔트 궤도의 최적 단면 산정)

  • Lee, Seonghyeok;Lee, Jinwook;Lee, Hyunmin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.241-251
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    • 2015
  • Compared with ballasted track (BT), ballasted asphalt track (BAT) has been increasingly adopted in many countries due to its more greatly reduced reinforced roadbed thickness and smaller cumulative plastic deformation, and its advantages in terms of maintenance. In this respect, the authors' previous research includes analysis of BAT sections that show performance similar to that of BT sections of the present specifications; reliability verification of the analysis results through real-sized static and dynamic train-load tests were performed. Based on previous research, this paper estimates the track lifetime using the strain of the lower roadbed according to reinforced roadbed thickness; using probabilistic LCC analysis, this paper presents a BAT section that satisfies the design lifetime and that has performance similar to or higher than that of BT.

A Study on the Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Railroad Bridges (철도교량의 생애주기비용분석에 관한 연구)

  • Park Mi-Yun;Na Ok-Pin;Hwang Young-Min;Kim Dae-Young;Cho Hyo-Nam
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.574-580
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    • 2005
  • Recently, the number of bridges and tunnels in railway is increasing due to the super high-speedy of train. Also, because of successively accidents of civil structures such as bridges and dams, the importance of maintenance become influential. The purpose of this study is to show the probabilistic life cycle cost analysis technique(PLCC) of the railroad bridge as pubic-infrastructures, and reasonably to indicate the economy in life cycle cost(LCC) through a case study. Rationally for life cycle cost analysis, the data gathered through many materials considered the uncertainty such as covariance. As a result, it is indicated that prestressed concrete bridge is pretty more cost-effective during life-cycle than preflex as well as steel box bridge. In future, if the construction of database and maintenance materials for railroad infrastructure is actualized, the life cycle cost analysis for railroad can be conducted easily and practically.

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Development of Preventive Maintenance Plan based on PRA - Case Study of Pansong-Line Railway in Pusan - (위험도평가에 기초한 예방유지관리 계획 - 부산지하철 반송선의 설계 예 -)

  • Kim Jae-Won;Choi Young-Min;Kim Dae-Sung;Kim Kyo-Hun;Park Hyang-Woo
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2005.11a
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    • pp.482-487
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    • 2005
  • In the most current Turn-key bidding and Alternative design, is going to establish maintenance plan along with a economical assessment (VE/LCC assessment etc). Generally, establishment of maintenance plan is based on past experiences that are decided upon sensor position and amount with analytic or mechanical control section. But, it is more reasonable that maintenance plan based on level of significance for Probabilistic Risk, with presuming damage probability assessment of structural fracture scenarios. Therefore, in this study it is considered about the technique that an improved maintenance plan of railroad structures using PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) on the basis of structural reliability theory. For this, in the paper, Preventive maintenance plan based on PRA is suggested with an application example of Pansong-Line (Line number 3) railway in Pusan works that actually executed Turn-key design.

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Life Cycle Cost Analysis at Design Stage of Cable Stayed Bridges based on the Performance Degradation Models (성능저하모델에 기초한 사장교의 설계단계 생애주기비용 분석)

  • Koo, Bon Sung;Han, Sang Hoon;Cho, Choong Yuen
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.2081-2091
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    • 2013
  • Recently, the demand on the practical application of life-cycle cost effectiveness for design and rehabilitation of civil infrastructure is rapidly growing unprecedently in civil engineering practice. Accordingly, in the 21st century, it is almost obvious that life-cycle cost together with value engineering will become a new paradigm for all engineering decision problems in practice. However, in spite of impressive progress in the researches on the LCC, the most researches have only focused on the Deterministic or Probabilistic LCC analysis approach and general bridge at design stage. Thus, the goal of this study is to develop a practical and realistic methodology for the Life-Cycle Cost LCC-effective optimum decision-making based on reliability analysis of bridges at design stage. The proposed updated methodology is based on the concept of Life Cycle Performance(LCP) which is expressed as the sum of present value of expected direct/indirect maintenance costs with expected optimal maintenance scenario. The updated LCC methodology proposed in this study is applied to the optimum design problem of an actual highway bridge with Cable Stayed Bridges. In conclusion, based on the application of the proposed methods to an actual example bridge, it is demonstrated that a updated methodology for performance-based LCC analysis proposed in this thesis, shown applicably in practice as a efficient, practical, process LCC analysis method at design stage.

Evaluation of Deterioration on Steel Bridges Based on Bridge Condition Ratings

  • Park, Chan-Hee
    • Corrosion Science and Technology
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.166-171
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    • 2004
  • Recent developments in Bridge Management Systems (BMS) and in Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) of bridges, have raised the need for evaluation procedure of future condition (Deterioration) of a bridge. Predicting future deterioration is not an easy task due to limited past data to extrapolate from and also due to difficulty in measuring actual deterioration such as section loss of steel on an actual steel bridge. Also, increase in live load and reduction of resistance are random variables, thus a probabilistic approach should be adopted for determining the future deterioration. Due to difficulties in evaluation of future deterioration on steel bridges, accepting uncertainties within a reasonable error, a deterministic procedure using bridge condition rating can be a useful tool for projection of future condition of bridges to identify repair and maintenance needs. The object of this paper is to determine applicability of evaluating deterioration of steel bridge components based on Bridge condition ratings. Bridge condition ratings of bridge components show wide variation for bridges of same age and does not directly correlate well with the age of the bridge and/or deterioration of the bridge. High uncertainty can be reduced by breaking down the rating and by sensitivity analysis. From refined condition rating data, generalized deterioration profile of structures based on age can be derived. Examples are shown for sample bridges in USA. Approximately, 3,000 short to medium span steel bridges were listed in the inventory database. Results show wide variation of rating factors but by subdividing the Bridge condition ratings for various categories general deterioration profiles of steel bridges can be determined.

An Analysis of the Uncertainty Factors for the Life Cycle Cost of Light Railroad Transit (경량전철 교량 LCC분석을 위한 불확실성 인자 분석)

  • Won, Seo-Kyung;Lee, Du-Heon;Kim, Kyoon-Tai;Kim, Hyun-Bae;Jun, Jin-Taek;Han, Choong-Hee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.396-400
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    • 2007
  • Various ways of automated guideway transit construction are being planned recently owing to the policies of the national government and local municipalities as well as increasing investment from the private sector. Particularly, the increase in the private investment is increasing greatly in SOC (Social Overhead Cost). This trend of promoting private sector investment must be conducted on the basis of a thorough analysis of the economic feasibility of the project from the government and construction companies in the private sector. In other words, an accurate cost analysis of initial investment cost (Construction cost), maintenance/repair cost, profit making through the operation of the concerned facilities, cost of dissolution, etc. in terms of the life cycle is very much in need. Nevertheless, the analysis of uncertainty factors and its probabilistic theory are in need of development so that they can be used in the analysis of the economic feasibility of a construction project. First of all, the actual studies on maintenance/repair cost of automated guideway transit are scarce as of yet, prohibiting an accurate computation of the cost and its economic analysis. Accordingly, this study focused on the uncertainty analysis of the economic feasibility for civil engineering structures among automated guideway transit construction projects based on the rapidly increasing investment on such structures from the private sector. For this research purpose, a cost classification system for the automated guideway transit is proposed, first of all, and the data On the cost cycle of the civil structure facilities and their unit cost are collected and analyzed. Then, the uncertainty in the cost is analyzed from the perspective of LCC. In consideration of the current status with almost no. studies on maintenance/repair of such facilities, it is expected that the cost classification system and the uncertainty analysis technique proposed in this study will greatly enhance LCC analysis and economic feasibility studies for automated guideway transit projects in the future.

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