• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.87-96
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• 2020

The purpose of this paper is to develop a fire HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) procedure for full power operation of domestic NPPs (Nuclear Power Plants). For the development of fire HRA procedure, the recent research results of NUREG-1921 in an effort to meet the requirements of the ASME/ANS PRA Standard were reviewed. The K-HRA method, a standard method for HRA of a domestic level 1 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) and fire related procedures in domestic NPPs were reviewed. Based on the review, a procedure for the fire HRA required for a domestic fire PSA based on the K-HRA method was developed. To this end, HRA issues such as new operator actions required in the event of a fire and complexity of fire situations were considered. Based on the four kinds of HFE (Human Failure Event) developed for a fire HRA in this research, a qualitative analysis such as feasibility evaluation was suggested. And also a quantitative analysis process which consists of screening analysis and detailed analysis was proposed. For the qualitative analysis, a screening analysis by NUREG-1921 was used. In this research, the screening criteria for the screening analysis was modified to reduce vague description and to reflect recent experimental results. For a detailed analysis, the K-HRA method and scoping analysis by NUREG-1921 were adopted. To apply K-HRA to fire HRA for quantification, efforts to modify PSFs (Performance Shaping Factors) of K-HRA to reflect fire situation and effects were made. For example, an absence of STA (Shift Technical Advisor) to command a fire brigade at a fire area is considered and the absence time should be reflected for a HEP (Human Error Probability) quantification. Based on the fire HRA procedure developed in this paper, a case study for HEP quantification such as a screening analysis and detailed analysis with the modified K-HRA was performed. It is expected that the HRA procedure suggested in this paper will be utilized for fire PSA for domestic NPPs as it is the first attempt to establish an HRA process considering fire effects.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.26-32
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• 2016

Usually, there are many uncertainties regarding the error of an assumed load, material properties, member size, and structure analysis in a structure, and it may have a direct influence on the qualities of optimal design of structures. Probabilistic analysis has developed rapidly into a desirable process and structural reliability analysis is an increasingly important tool that assists engineers to consider uncertainties during the design, construction and life of a structure to calculate its probability of failure. This study deals with the applications of two optimization techniques to solve the reliability-based optimization problem of structures. The reliability-based optimization problem was formulated as a minimization of the structural volume subject to the constraints on the values of componential reliability index determined by the AFOSM approach. This presented method may be a useful tool for the reliability-based design optimization of structures.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.9-16
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• 1990

The safety of concrete nuclear containment structures should be secured against all kinds of loading due to various natural disasters or extraordinary accidental loads. The current design criteria of concrete containment structures are not based on the reliabillty-based design concept but rely on the conventional design concept. In this paper, a probabillty-based reliability analysis were proposed based on a FEM-based random vibration analysis and serviceability limit state of structures. The limit state model defined for the study is a serviceability limit state in terms of the more realistic crack failure that might cause the emission of radioactive materials, and the results are compared with those of the strength limit state. More accurate reliability analyses under various dynamic loads such as earthquake loads were made possible by incorporation the FEM and random vibration theory, which is different from the conventional reliability analysis method. The uncertainties in loads and resistance available in Korea and the refernces were adapted to the situation of Korea, and especially in the case of earthquake, the design earthquake was assessed based on the available re ports on probabilistic description of earthquake ground acceleration in the Korea peninsula.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.17 no.2 s.52
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• pp.163-176
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• 2007

Landslides which is one of the major natural hazard is defined as a mass movement of weathered material rock and debris due to gravity and can be triggered by complex mechanism. It causes enormous property damages and losses of human lift directly and indirectly. In order to mitigate landslide risk effectively, a new method is required to develope for better understanding of landslide risk based on the damaged cost produce, investment priority data, etc. In this study, we suggest a new evaluation method for slope stability using risk analysis. 30 slopes including 10 stable slopes, 10 slopes of possible failure and 10 failed slopes along the national and local roads are examined. Risk analysis comprises the hazard analysis and the consequence analysis. Risk scores evaluated by risk analysis show very clear boundaries for each category and are the highest for the failed slopes and the lowest for the stable slopes. The evaluation method for slope stability suggested by this research may define the condition and stability of slope more clearly than other methods suggested by others.

• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.723-730
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• 2008

Due to the higher ratio of live load to total loads of railway bridges, the accumulated damage by cyclic fatigue is significant. Moreover, it is highly possible that the initiated crack grows faster than that of highway bridges. Therefore, it is strongly needed to assess the safety for the accumulated damage analytically. The initiation and growth of fatigue-crack are related with the stress range, number of cycles, and the stiffness of the structural system. The stiffness of the structural system includes uncertainties of the planning, design, construction and maintenance, which varies as time goes. In this study, the authors developed the design and risk assessment techniques based on the reliability theories considering the uncertainties in load and resistance. For the probabilistic risk assessment of crack growth and the remaining life of the structures by the cyclic load of railway and subway bridges, response surface method (RSM) combined with first order second moment method were used. For composing limit state function, the stress range, stress intensity factor and the remaining life were selected as input important random variables to the RSM program. The probabilities of failure and the reliability indices of fatigue life for the considered specimen under cyclic loads were evaluated and discussed.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.213-220
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• 2009

In order to predict the risk of freeze injury for 'Changhowon Hwangdo' peach trees, we used the dormancy depth (i.e., the daily chill unit accumulation during the overwintering period) as a proxy for the short-term, physiological tolerance to freezing temperatures. A Chill-days model was employed and its parameters such as base temperature and chilling requirement were optimized for peach trees based on the 12 observational experiments during the 2008-2009 winter. The model predicted the flowering dates much closer to the observations than other models without considering dormancy depth, showing the strength of employing dormancy depth into consideration. To derive empirical equations for calculating the probabilistic freeze risk, the dormancy depth was then combined with the browning ratio and the budburst ratio of frozen peach fruit branches. Given the exact date and the predicted minimum temperature, the equations calculate the probability of freeze damages such as a failure in budburst or tissue browning. This method of employing dormancy depth in addition to freezing temperature would be useful in locating in advance the risky areas of freezing injury for peach trees production under the projected climate change.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.9
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• pp.724-731
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• 2016

As the structural damage caused by earthquakes has been gradually increasing, estimating the seismic fragility of structures has become essential for earthquake preparation. Seismic fragility curves are widely used as a probabilistic indicator of structural safety against earthquakes, and many researchers have made efforts to develop them in a more accurate and effective manner. However, most of the previous research studies used simplified 2D analytical models when deriving fragility curves, mainly to reduce the numerical simulation time; however, in many cases 2D models are inadequate to accurately evaluate the seismic behavior of a structure and its seismic vulnerability. Thus, this study provides a way to derive more accurate, but still effective, seismic fragility curves by using 3D analytical models. In this method, the reliability analysis software, FERUM, is integrated with the structural analysis software, ZEUS-NL, enabling the automatic exchange of data between these two software packages, and the first order reliability method (FORM), which is not a sampling-based method, is utilized to calculate the structural failure probabilities. These tools make it possible to conduct structural reliability analyses effectively even with 3D models. By using the proposed method, this study conducted a seismic vulnerability assessment of RC frame structures with their 3D analytical models.