• 토지주택연구
• /
• 제11권2호
• /
• pp.33-46
• /
• 2020

As the fastest growing office transaction volume in Korea, there's been a need for development of indicators to accurately diagnose the office capital market. The purpose of this paper is experimentally calculate to the office price index for effective benchmark indices in Seoul. The quantitative methodology used a Case-Shiller Repeat Sales Model (1991), based on actual multiple office transaction dataset with over minimum 1,653 ㎡ from Q3 1999 to 4Q 2019 in the case of 1,536 buildings within Seoul Metropolitan. In addition, the collected historical data and spatial statistical analysis tools were treated with the SAS 9.4 and ArcGIS 10.7 programs. The main empirical results of research are briefly summarized as follows; First, Seoul office price index was estimated to be 344.3 point (2001.1Q=100.0P) at the end of 2019, and has more than tripled over the past two decades. it means that the sales price of office per 3.3 ㎡ has consistently risen more than 12% every year since 2000, which is far above the indices for apartment housing index, announced by the MOLIT (2009). Second, between quarterly and annual office price index for the two-step estimation of the MIT Real Estate Research Center (MIT/CRE), T, L, AL variables have statistically significant coefficient (Beta) all of the mode l (p<0.01). Third, it was possible to produce a more stable office price index against the basic index by using the Moore-Penrose's pseoudo inverse technique at low transaction frequency. Fourth, as an lagging indicators, the office price index is closely related to key macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP(+), KOSPI(+), interest rates (5-year KTB, -). This facts indicate that long-term office investment tends to outperform other financial assets owing to high return and low risk pattern. In conclusion, these findings are practically meaningful to presenting an new office price index that increases accuracy and then attempting to preliminary applications for the case of Seoul. Moreover, it can provide sincerely useful benchmark about investing an office and predicting changes of the sales price among market participants (e.g. policy maker, investor, landlord, tenant, user) in the future.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국건축시공학회 2020년도 봄 학술논문 발표대회
• /
• pp.48-49
• /
• 2020

Recently the diversification of construction market and the continuous reduction of construction amount are raising the need of alternative delivery method in the construction industry. The foreign advanced companies actively adopted the CM at Risk delivery method where they perform the service of agent CM in the design phase, and agree GMP(Guaranteed Maximum Price) with the client at the time of 50~80% completion of design. Even in Korea they began to apply that method to pilot projects. In CM at Risk, through the early participation of builder, the level of design completion can be improved and the change order and construction period delay can be minimized. On the other hand, GMP is usually calculated when the design is about 80% complete, so there is uncertainty in the construction cost. Therefore, in this research, the increased amounts of construction cost are analyzed in a number of public construction projects, and GMP calculation process is proposed using the analysis results and CBR(Case-Based Reasoning) technique to reduce the construction cost increase in the construction phase.

• 아태비즈니스연구
• /
• 제15권2호
• /
• pp.71-88
• /
• 2024

Purpose - This study provides an overview of existing research and practices related to market risk premiums(MRP), and empirically estimates the MRP in Korea, particularly using the related option prices. We also seek to improve the current MRP practices and explore alternative solutions. Design/methodology/approach - We present the option price-based MRP estimation method, as proposed by Martin (2017), and implement it within the context of the Korean stock market. We then juxtapose these results with those derived from other methods, and compare the characteristics with those of the United States. Findings - We found that the lower limit of the MRP in the Korean stock market shows a much lower value compared to the US. There seems to be the possibility of a market crash, exchange rate volatility, or a lack of option trading data. We investigated the predictive power of the estimated values and discovered that the weighted average of the results of various methodologies using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is superior to the individual method's results. Research implications or Originality - It is required to explore various methods of estimating MRP that are suitable for the Korean stock market. In order to improve the estimation methodology based on option prices, it is necessary to develop the methods using the higher-order(third order or above) moments, or consider additional risk factors such as the possibility of a crash.

• 통상정보연구
• /
• 제13권4호
• /
• pp.229-249
• /
• 2011

본 연구는 글로벌금융위기 이후에 환율변동과 수출가격과의 관련성을 살펴보았다. 이를 위하여 우리나라 수출기업의 가격차별화 가격결정 행태뿐만 아니라 우리나라 수출산업의 특성상 가공무역구조로 인식하고 수출가격 결정모형을 설정하였다. 이러한 수출가격 결정모형에 근거하여 된 2008년 1월 이후 2011년 10월까지의 기간을 대상으로 음식료품, 목재나무제품, 펄프종이제품, 화학제품을 제외한 제조업을 대상으로 환율변동의 수출가격에의 전가율을 추정하였다. 연구결과 원화환율은 수출가격에 불완전 하게 전가되는 것으로 추정됨을 확인하였다. 원화환율의 1% 상승(하락)은 우리나라 제조업 수출가격을 장단기적으로 0.44 %와 0.33%상승(하락)시키는 것으로 추정되었다. 또한 우리나라 수출가격은 원화환율 뿐만 아니라 경쟁국의 수출가격, 미국경기통행지수, 단위노동비용 및 원자재 수입가격을 대변하는 생산자물가지수, 경쟁국의 환율에 크게 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 산업별 환율전가의 차이는 시장 점유율, 제품차별화, 자본집약도 등과 밀접한 관련이 있는 것으로 분석되었는데 대체로 해외시장 점유율이 높거나 혹은 제품차별화 정도가 크거나 혹은 노동비율이 높은 자본집약산업에서 환율전가도가 높게 나타났다.

• 한국전자통신학회논문지
• /
• 제9권3호
• /
• pp.393-402
• /
• 2014

ICT환경에서 통계청이 조사하여 발표한 2012년 가계금융. 복지조사에 따르면 우리나라 전체가구중 금융자산은 24.9%, 부동산은 이보다 약 3배나 많은 69.9%로 조사되었다. 문제는 정보화가 더디고, 소득분위(1~4분위)가 낮은 가구가 상대적으로 높은 비율(78.8%~69%)의 부동산자산을 보유함으로써 세계경제의 불확실성 확대와 저성장과 저소비, 정보화로 인한 재택근무 증가 등과 같은 경제구조의 변화로 부동산 가격하락 리스크에 그대로 노출되어 있어 하우스푸어와 랜트푸어와 같은 현상은 저소득층에게 더 심각한 현상이 될 수밖에 없다. 이에 상관관계가 낮은 복합자산으로 포트폴리오를 구성함으로써 개별자산 위험의 가중평균보다 전체수익은 높이면서 위험은 감소시킬 수 있다는 포트폴리오 원리에 기초하여 지역과 유형별로 상이한 ICT환경에서 부동산가격지수로 구성된 포트폴리오에 상관관계가 낮은 금융자산을 포함시킴으로써 복합자산 포트폴리오의 분산효과를 안정형과 성장형으로 나눠 실증 분석하였다.

• 무역상무연구
• /
• 제12권
• /
• pp.163-200
• /
• 1999

The CISG entrusts many problems to trade or practice : for example the problems which can't be compromised between civil law system and common law system ; the problems in which the application of usage or practice in universal ; the problems of rapid change according to trade circumstance. The purpose of this paper is to confirm whether the CISG is accomodating the usage or practice in its Text, and to find which topic is most closely related to usage or practice in CISG. The Article 9 in the CISG is a provision of usages or practices applicable to contract. But the problems of the CISG in the accomodation of usages or practices are that it lacks the definitions of ‘usage’ and ‘practices’, the CISG is not concerned with the validity of any usage according to Article 4, and the application of usage or practice may differ in litigation and arbitration The topics such as delivery of goods, payment of price and the transfer of risk are most closely related to usages and practices. The delivery of goods and the transfer of risk are determined by the trade terms like FOB or CIF. But the method of identification and the risk for the sale of goods in transit can't be determined by the trade terms in INCOTERMS(1990). So the CISG may serve as complementing role. In payment of price, the trade term does not refer to the time and place of payment. So the CISG may be the basis of interpretation. Likewise the usages and practices such as trade terms, UCP and so on, can be expected to play a significant role in complementing and interpreting the CISG.

• 보건행정학회지
• /
• 제23권2호
• /
• pp.112-123
• /
• 2013

Background: Under the risk of financial sustainability of National Health Insurance, Korean government attempted a series of regulations over pharmaceutical prices. The first price-cut was implemented to the hyperlipidemial treatments, and the prices of statins were reduced on 15th, April in 2009. The purposes of this study are 1) to investigate the impact of this price-cut on pharmaceutical expenditure, and 2) to identify the factors associated with drug-switch among statins. Methods: Using the national patients sample data, this study conducted time series analysis on the expenditures, prices, and volumes of statin drugs. To understand the factors associated with drug-switch, the multinomial logit model was analyzed at the patients level. Results: The results of time series analysis demonstrated that the price-cut of hyperlipidemic medicines did not lead to the reduced expenditure, suggesting the increased volume was the major cause. The multinomial logit analysis identified the switch of healthcare provider as the significant factor that was highly associated with drug-switch, implying the physicians' preference was the major motivation of drug-switch. Conclusion: Without control of utilization, price regulation itself could not reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. This suggests that the pharmaceutical regulations should be implemented on the basis of understanding of provider behaviors. The findings of this study will form the first step for further empirical studies.

• 산업과 과학
• /
• 제2권1호
• /
• pp.21-38
• /
• 2023

본 논문에서는 주식 시장의 기술적 분석의 기본에 대해 제시하였다. 소매 투자자나 거래자는 다양한 정보원으로부터 나오는 외부 정보를 얻을 수 있는 수단이 제한적이다. 일반적으로 기술적 분석에는 캔들 차트가 주로 활용된다. 인도의 대부분의 브로커는 차트 솔루션도 제공하고 있다. 보안이나 원자재 또는 Forex의 가격 변동을 분석해 보면 일반적인 주가 변동 패턴을 예측 할 수 있다. 주가는 특정 수준에서 반영되며 지지 및 저항 수준으로 널리 알려져 있다. 유가 증권의 가격에 발생하는 모든 일이 과거 언젠가 이미 진행된 패턴 또는 주기의 일부로 간주되기 때문에 이러한 연구는 영리한 애널리스트가 특정 확률로 가격의 미래 변동을 예측하는 데 도움을 줄 수 있다. 캔들스틱의 패턴, 가격 변동, 거래량 및 지표에 대한 연구는 가능한 목표 및 손절매로 높은 확률의 거래를 할 수 있는 기회를 제공한다. 본 연구 결과를 활용하여 트레이더나 투자자는 확률이 높은 거래나 조건을 취하고 투자 손실을 통제할 수 있게 된다.

• 벤처혁신연구
• /
• 제1권1호
• /
• pp.83-98
• /
• 2018

본 논문은 최근 생겨난 장외시장인 K-OTC 시장에서 금융상품이 거래되어 과세될 경우 거래세와 양도세의 차이에 대해 이론적으로 접근해 보고자 한다. 또한 합성채권을 구성하여 위험을 헤지하고자 할 때 포트폴리오로 구성된 금융 상품의 과세 방법에 따라 투자자들이 추구하는 수준까지 위험을 줄이기 어렵기 때문에 이를 효과적으로 적용할 수 있는 조세 방법을 살펴보고자 한다. 무엇보다 합성채권의 과세 형평성을 구체적으로 살펴보기 위해 K-OTC 시장 안에서 기말주가변화와 행사가격변화에 따라 합성채권에 부과된 거래세와 양도세의 효과 및 소득공제 유무에 따라 어떻게 세후이익이 차이가 나는지 분석해 보고자 하였다. 연구 결과 기말 주가변화에 따른 거래세와 양도세의 조세 갭을 통해 거래세 효과가 양도세 효과보다 조세 갭이 훨씬 적으므로 어느 정도 복제포트폴리오로 헤지를 구성함에 있어서는 거래세를 부과하는 것이 조세 정책적 목적 및 금융시장 측면에서 조금 더 효율적일 수 있음을 보여주었다. 또한 소득공제 허용 여부는 행사가격의 변화에 따라 거래세와 양도세의 효과가 차이가 있음을 나타내었다. 무엇보다 행사가격이 주가보다 낮아지면 거래세가 양도세보다 소득공제 유무의 영향을 덜 받는 것으로 나타났으나, 행사가격이 주가보다 높아지면 거래세와 양도세 모두 소득공제 유무의 영향이 동일함을 알 수 있었다. 앞으로의 과제는 실제 금융상품을 대상으로 K-OTC시장에서 실증 검증하는 것이며 아울러 옵션 거래세를 산정함에 비율 분석으로 접근하여 좀 더 체계적인 헤지 방법을 찾아보는 것이다.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제10권3호
• /
• pp.105-124
• /
• 2009

The situation of the global food markets has been being rapidly restructured and entering on a new phase by new dynamic and driving forces. The factors such as economic growth and income increase, high energy price, globalization, urbanization, and global climate change are transforming patterns of food consumption, production, and markets. The prices and markets of world food and energy are getting increasingly linked each other. Food and fuel are the global dilemma issues associated with the risk of diverting farmland or of consuming cereals for biofuel production in detriment of the cereals supply to the global food markets. An estimated 100 million tons of grain per year are being redirected from food to fuel. Therefore, the objectives of this study are as follows: Firstly, the study examines situations of the world food and energy resources, analyzes the trends of prices of the crude oil and biofuel, and formulates the food-energy links mechanism. Secondly, the study builds a simulation model, based on system dynamics approach, for not only analyzing the global cereals market and energy market but also forecasting the global production, consumption, and stock of those markets by 2030 in the future. The model of this study consists of four sectors, i.e., world population dynamics sector, global food market dynamics sector, global energy market dynamics sector, scenario sector of world economic growth and oil price.