• 재무관리연구
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.183-206
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• 2007

The price-dividend ratio is one of the most frequently used financial variables to predict long-horizon stock return. However, the persistency of the price-dividend ratio is found to cause the spuriousness of the stock return prediction regression. The stable relationship between the stock price and the dividend, however, seems to weaken after World War II and to experience structural break. In this paper, we identify a structural change in the cointegrating relationship between the log of the stock price and the log of the dividend. Confirming a structural break in 1962, we subdivide the sample and apply the fully modified estimator to correct for the nonstationarity of the regressor. With the subdivided sample, we exercise the nonparametric bootstrap procedure to derive the empirical distribution of the test statistics and fail to find return predictability in each subsample period.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.495-513
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• 2001

We investigate a practical method of calculating the impact of multiple domestic energy price change on the final demand, production, the export and import change, the change in the balance of payment of Korean economy. By combining an existing computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with the traditional input-output analysis with two additional assumptions on the price behavior, we provide a cost-effective method of analyzing the impact of multiple energy price changes on the domestic economy. The energy price shock we used in this paper is 0.127% increase weighted by the sectoral productions. The total impacts on price level and GDP are 1.258% and -0.940%, respectively. The impact on the total output (GDP and intermediate goods) is about -1.580%.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권11호
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• pp.13-22
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• 2020

This research explores the appropriate rubber pricing model and the consistent empirical evidence. This model has been derived from the utility function and firm profit-maximization model of commodity goods. The finding shows that the period t - 1 affects expected commodity price and expected profit of commodity production. In fact, a change in the world price of rubber in the past period led to a change in the expected price of rubber in the short run which influenced the expected rubber profit. As a result, the past-period free on board price has an entirety effect on expected farm price of rubber given an exchange rate. In addition, the rubber pricing model indicates that the profit of local farmer on rubber plant depends solely on the world price of rubber in the short run in case of Thailand. In an empirical study, it was found that a change in the price of ribbed smoke sheet 3 in Singapore Commodity Exchange significantly and positively determined the fluctuation of rubber price at the farm gate in Thailand which was consistent with the behavior of the Thai farmers. Both prices are also cointegrated in the long run. That is, the result states that the VECM is an appropriated pricing model for forecasting the farm price in Thailand.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제46권1호
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• pp.93-107
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• 2015

This study aims to analyze causalities among Hairtail prices by distribution channel using a vector autoregressive model. This study applies unit-root test for stability of data, uses Granger causality test to know interaction among Hairtail Prices by distribution channel, and employes the vector autoregressive model to estimate statistical impacts among t-2 period variables used in model. Analyzing results of this study are as follows. First, ADF, PP, and KPSS tests show that the change rate of Hairtail price by distribution channel differentiated by logarithm is stable. Second, a Granger causality test presents that the producer price of Hairtail leads the wholesale price and then the wholesale price leads the consumer price. Third, the vector autoregressive model suggests that the change rate of Hairtail producer price of t-2 period variables statistically, significantly impacts change rates of own, wholesale, and consumer prices at current period. Fourth, the impulse response analysis indicates that impulse responses of the structural shocks with a respectively distribution channel of the Hairtail prices are relatively more powerful in own distribution channel than in other distribution channels. Fifth, a forecast error variance decomposition of the Hairtail prices points out that the own price has relatively more powerful influence than other prices.

• 대한가정학회지
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• 제40권8호
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• pp.153-166
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• 2002

This study aims to reveal the influence of price increase in gasoline on household expenditure trade-off. The subjects were 651 households, acquired the first quarter of 1996 and 1997. This study shows the change of the auto fuel budget share in the same household and they were analyzed with the paired t-test, independent t-test. The results are as follows; 1) the price increase of auto gasoline resulted in the increase of its budget share, regardless of a household's true increase or decrease of income. 2) according to price increase in gasoline, the auto fuel budget share has been changed, therefore I divided these changes into three group on the base of it's degree of change. 3) In the group that had a decrease in auto fuel budget share compared to the degree of change, there was a trade-off between the increase in food and light & light water and the decrease of education and auto fuel budget share. Auto fuel in this group was used as discretionary good. 4) In the group that had a similar change in auto fuel budget share compared to the degree of change, there were no trade-off between expenditure items except auto fuel budget share and miscellaneous decrease. This group is the highest income group among the three groups. 5) In the group that had and increase of change in auto fuel budget share compared to the degree of change, there was a trade-off between the increase of eating-out and auto fuel, and the decrease of education and miscellaneous budget share. Auto fuel in this group was used as a discretionary good. 6) trade-off expenditure budget share showed a mixed effect between the influence of increase in gasoline price and influence of increase in true income.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.39-50
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• 2020

Purpose: Agriculture, which is heavily influenced by climate conditions, is one of the industries most affected by climate change. In this respect, various studies on the impact of climate change on the agricultural market have been conducted. Since climate change is a long-term phenomenon for more than a decade, long-term projections of agricultural prices as well as climate variables are needed to properly analyze the impact of climate change on the agricultural market. However, these long-term price projections are often major constraints on studies of climate changes. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of climate changes on the Korean onion market using ex-post analysis approach in order to avoid the difficulties of long-term price projections. Research design, data and methodology: This study develops an annual dynamic partial equilibrium model of Korean onion market. The behavioral equations of the model were estimated by OLS based on the annual data from 1988 to 2018. The modelling system is first simulated to have actual onion market conditions from 2014 to 2018 as a baseline and then compared it to the scenario assuming the climatic conditions under RCP8.5 over the same period. Scenario analyses were simulated by both comparative static and dynamic approach to evaluate the differences between the two approaches. Results: According to the empirical results, if the climate conditions under RCP8.5 were applied from 2014 to 2018, the yield of onion would increase by about 4%, and the price of onion would decrease from 3.7% to 17.4%. In addition, the average price fluctuation rate over the five years under RCP8.5 climate conditions is 56%, which is more volatile than 46% under actual climate conditions. Empirical results also show that the price decreases have been alleviated in dynamic model compared with comparative static model. Conclusions: Empirical results show that climate change is expected to increase onion yields and reduce onion prices. Therefore, the appropriate countermeasures against climate change in Korean onion market should be found in the stabilization of supply and demand for price stabilization rather than technical aspects such as the development of new varieties to increase productivity.

• 대한공간정보학회지
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.63-70
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• 2014

본 연구는 국토교통부에서 제공하는 아파트 실거래가자료를 이용하여 2006~2010년까지 5년간의 서울시 아파트실거래가 변화패턴을 시공간적으로 분석하는데 그 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 아파트별 평균 실거래가, 동별 평균 아파트 실거래가 자료를 위치정보자료와 연결하여 GIS데이터로 구축하였다. 분석방법으로는 먼저 공간보간기법 중 크리깅(kriging)을 이용하여 개별 아파트의 시기별/면적별 실거래가의 변화패턴을 분석하였다. 둘째 행정구역(행정동)별 아파트실거래가의 변화패턴을 분석하기 위해 단위 면적별 실거래가의 평균을 계산하여 Moran I 값으로 변환한 후 거래가격의 공간상의 군집도를 분석하였다. 이를 통해 시공간상의 분포패턴을 파악하고, 변화유형까지 유추할 수 있어 주택 및 지역정책에 기초자료로 활용할 수 있다. 시계열 자료를 바탕으로 종적인 변화패턴과 GIS를 이용한 횡적 변화패턴을 분석하기 때문에 아파트가격의 지역 불균형을 한눈에 살펴 볼 수 있다.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2001년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.386-388
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• 2001

The change of the electricity charge from cost base to price base due to the introduction of the electricity market competition causes consumer to choose a variety of charge schemes and a portion of loads to be affected by this change. Besides, it is required the index that consolidate the price volatility experienced on the power exchange with gaming and strategic bidding by suppliers to increase profits. Therefore, in order to find a mathematical model of the sensitively-responding-to-price loads, the price-sensitive load model is needed. And the development of state-of-the-art technologies affects the electricity price, so the diffusion of high-efficient end-uses and these price affect load patterns. This paper shows the analysis on learning curves algorithms which is used to investigate the correlation of the end-uses' price and load patterns.

• 한국의류학회지
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• 제37권7호
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• pp.972-983
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• 2013

This study investigates the effects of fashion innovativeness and utilization on the price perception of formal wear and climbing wear as well as gender differences on price perception and the relationship of the variables. Price perception measurements were based on reference price and reservation price; subsequently, a premium price ratio was calculated based on the measured prices. A survey that involved male and female adult consumers was conducted in Daegu in August 2011. A total of 321 responses were analyzed using descriptive statistics, factor analysis, reliability analysis, correlations and independent sample t-test. Two factors of fashion innovativeness were derived and named as unique-oriented innovativeness and change-oriented innovativeness. The utilization of formal wear and climbing wear was higher in the male group versus the female group. Reference price and reservation price were identified similar to the actual consumer purchasing prices reported in previous studies. Male consumers showed a tendency in price perception in accordance with the utilization. The change-oriented innovativeness of the female group led to a positive relationship with the perceived price of climbing jackets.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2001년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.435-437
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• 2001

The change of the electricity charge from cost base to price base due to the introduction of the electricity market competition causes consumer to choose a variety of charge schemes and a portion of loads to be affected by this change. Besides, it is required the index that consolidate the price volatility experienced on the power exchange with gaming and strategic bidding by suppliers to increase profits. Therefore, in order to find a mathematical model of the sensitively-responding-to-price loads, the price-sensitive load model is needed. And the development of state-of-the-art technologies affects the electricity price, so the diffusion of high-efficient end-uses and these price affect load patterns. This paper shows the analysis on learning curves algorithms which is used to investigate the correlation of the end-uses' price and load patterns.