• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictor

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A Study on the Effect of Startup's Innovation Orientation on Growth Aspiration (창업기업의 혁신지향성이 성장열망에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Hyemi;Lee, Chaewon;Kim, Jinsoo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2021
  • Innovation and Scale-up of Start-up companies are becoming important national tasks. In the past, it was spread the start-up policy paradigm such as 'Start-up America', 'Start-up Chile', 'Start-up Britain' to overcome the recession globally. However as the economic recovery has become more visible recently in advanced economies, it is shifting from a start-up support policy to a scale-up oriented policy paradigm such as 'Scale-up America', Scale-up UK', 'Scale-up Denmark'. It is necessary to enter the scale-up phase beyond the start-up phase to increase the number of high-quality jobs and to continue economic growth. Therefore, it is necessary to grow the start-up into a strong medium-sized company and to lay the foundation for survival. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to consider the antecedent factors that influence the scale-up aspiration for the start-up firm to grow into a scale-up company, and empirically identifies the differences between the stages of economic development and entrepreneurs in the country. In order to accomplish the purpose, this study predicted scale-up by aspiration which is a predictor of scale-up behavior because it is difficult to achieve visible growth in a short period of time due to the characteristics of start-up companies. In order to empirically explore these relationships, the data were collected from nascent entrepreneurs who have less than 3.5 years of the Adult Population Survey(APS) among the subjects surveyed by the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor(GEM) and the national economic development stage are divided into Innovation-driven, Efficiency-driven, Factor-driven type economies. For the test hypotheses, this study adopted the multi-level model analysis for comparison between national economic development stages and using the R 3.5.0 program. The results of this study are as follows. There is difference between the national economic development and the entrepreneur in the relationship between innovation orientation of entrepreneurs and scale-up aspirations. As the economy of the country develops, the innovation activity of the entrepreneur becomes more active. Since start-ups are heavily influenced by entrepreneurs, there is a difference in the degree of aspiration depending on how innovative an entrepreneur is in the same environment. In terms of the relationship between innovation orientation and scale-up aspiration, the fear of failure was found to differ between national economic development and entrepreneurs. The fear of failure differ from country to country, and this is one of the important factors affecting entrepreneurial activities. It is expected that the factors influencing the growth of the start-up companies which are identified through the results of these studies, will be used to create a suitable scale-up ecosystem according to the national economic development stage.

Impacts of Diastolic Function on Clinical Outcomes in Young Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction (젊은 급성 심근경색증 환자에서 좌심실 이완 기능 및 충만압이 관상동맥중재술 후 임상 경과에 미치는 영향)

  • Cho, Eun Young;Jeong, Myung Ho;Yoon, Hyun Ju;Kim, Yong Cheol;Sohn, Seok-Joon;Kim, Min Chul;Sim, Doo Sun;Hong, Young Joon;Kim, Ju Han;Ahn, Youngkeun;Cho, Jae Young;Kim, Kye Hun;Park, Jong Chun
    • The Korean Journal of Medicine
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    • v.93 no.6
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    • pp.538-547
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    • 2018
  • Background/Aims: The impact of left ventricular (LV) diastolic function and filling pressure on clinical outcomes in young patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) has been poorly studied. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the impact of LV diastolic function and LV filling pressure on major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) in young patients with AMI. Methods: A total of 200 young patients (males < 45 year, females < 55 year) with AMI were divided into two groups according to the diastolic function; normal (n = 46, $39.5{\pm}5.3$ years) versus abnormal (n = 154, $43.5{\pm}5.1$ years). Results: Despite regional wall motion abnormalities, normal LV diastolic function was not uncommon in young AMI patients (23.0%). During the 40 months of clinical follow-up, MACEs developed in 26 patients (13.0%); 14 re-percutaneous coronary intervention (7.0%), 8 recurrent MI (4.0%), and 4 deaths (2.0%). MACEs did not differ between the normal and abnormal diastolic function group (13.6% vs. 10.9%, p = 0.810), but MACEs were significantly higher in the high LV filling pressure group than the normal LV filling pressure group (36.8% vs. 10.5%, p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, high LV filling pressure was an independent predictor of MACEs (hazard ratio 3.022, 95% confidence interval 1.200-7.612, p = 0.019). Conclusions: This study suggested that measurement of the LV filling pressure (E/e' ratio) would be useful in the risk stratification of young patients with AMI. However, it would be necessary to monitor this category of patient more carefully.

The Effects of Job Stress of Nurses Working in the General Hospitals on Their Turnover Intention -Mediating Effects Organizational Commitment- (종합병원 간호사의 직무스트레스가 이직의도에 미치는 영향 -조직몰입의 매개효과-)

  • Kim, Gyeong-Suk;Cho, In-Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.656-667
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    • 2019
  • This study is a descriptive research to grasp the effects of job stress on turnover intention and to confirm the mediating effect of organizational commitment according to the extent of job stress, organizational commitment and turnover intention in the relations between job stress and Turnover Intention of nurses working in general hospitals. Method: The subjects of this study were 199 nurses are working in general hospitals, that have more than 200 beds and less than 400 beds, located in Gwangju. I surveyed them using a structured questionnaire for collecting data from Sep. 01, 2017 to Sep. 20, 2017. The collected data were analyzed by the frequency, the percentage, t-test, ANOVA, Scheffe's Test, Pearson's Correlation Coefficient, Multiple Regression Analysis and Sobel Results: In the first step, job stress as an independent variable had a statistically significant effect on organizational commitment(${\beta}=-.321$, p<.001). In the second step, job stress, an independent variable, also had an important effect on turnover intention as a dependent variable(${\beta}=.389$, p<.001). Job stress and organizational commitment were meaningful predictor variables of turnover intention in the third step. The explanatory power of two variables was 45.5%. The value ${\beta}$ of job stress in the third step was .203(p<.001) which was smaller than its value ${\beta}$,.389(p<.001), in the second step. That meant organizational commitment had the mediating effect on turnover intention. The Sobel Test was conducted to verify the significance of the extent of the mediating effects of organizational commitment. The test result was that the value Z was -3.694 and the mediating effect of organizational commitment was significant on the relation between job stress and turnover intention(p<.002). Conclusion: this study is expected be useful to find ways to reduce subjects' turnover intention by decreasing their job stress, increasing their organizational commitment and developing intervention programs as basic data.

Quality of Life and Characteristics of Depression with Subjective Cognitive Decline in Korean Adults : Data from the Seventh Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (한국 성인에서 주관적 인지저하를 동반한 우울증의 특성과 삶의 질 : 제 7기 국민건강영양조사를 중심으로)

  • Jeong, Jae-Hoon;Kim, Sung-Jin;Jung, Do-Un;Moon, Jung-Joon;Jeon, Dong-Wook;Kim, Yeon-Sue;Choi, Hyeon-Seok;Lee, Min-Joo;Jeon, Gyeong-Su
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2021
  • Objectives : This study aimed to investigate quality of life, severity of depression, suicidality, subjective health and subjective stress of depression with subjective cognitive decline in Korean adults. Methods : We used the 7th KNHANES data to enroll 415 participants with a score of 10 or higher on Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), aged 20-64. Depression was divided into two groups based on the presence/absence of subjective cognitive decline. Demographic and psychological characteristics were compared between two groups. Correlation analysis of subjective cognitive decline, quality of life, depression, suicidal idea was carried out. To detect which variables influenced quality of life, a multiple regression analysis was carried out. Results : Among the 415 participants, 98 had depression with subjective cognitive decline. We identified significant differences in age, marital status, education, employment between the two groups. After adjusting for these variables, depression with subjective cognitive decline had lower EuroQol-5D index scores, more severe depressive symptoms without cognition and worse subjective health than depression without cognitive decline. There was a significant correlation between subjective cognitive decline and quality of life (r=-0.236, p<0.001), suicidal idea (r=0.182, p<0.001), depression score without cognition (r=0.108, p=0.028). Through multiple regression analysis, subjective cognitive decline was predictor of reduced quality of life (β=-0.178, p<0.001). Conclusions : Depression with subjective cognitive decline has poor quality of life and severe depression. Cognitive decline should be considered to improve treatment result in depression.

An Overview of Surgical Treatment of Thymic Epithelial Tumors in Korea: A Retrospective Multicenter Analysis

  • Lee, Jun Oh;Lee, Geun Dong;Kim, Hyeong Ryul;Kim, Dong Kwan;Park, Seung-Il;Cho, Jong Ho;Kim, Hong Kwan;Choi, Yong Soo;Kim, Jhingook;Shim, Young Mog;Park, Samina;Park, In Kyu;Kang, Chang Hyun;Kim, Young Tae;Park, Seong Yong;Lee, Chang Young;Lee, Jin Gu;Kim, Dae Joon;Paik, Hyo Chae;the Korean Association for Research on the Thymus,
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.126-142
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    • 2022
  • Background: Thymic epithelial tumors (TETs) are rare, and information regarding their surgical outcomes and prognostic factors has rapidly changed in the past few decades. We analyzed surgical treatment practices for TETs and outcomes in terms of overall survival (OS) and freedom from recurrence (FFR) during a 13-year period in Korea. Methods: In total, 1,298 patients with surgically resected TETs between 2000 and 2013 were enrolled retrospectively. OS and FFR were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and evaluated with the log-rank test. Prognostic factors for OS and FFR were analyzed with multivariable Cox regression. Results: A total of 1,098 patients were diagnosed with thymoma, and 200 patients were diagnosed with thymic carcinoma. Over the study period, the total number of patients with surgically treated TETs and the proportion of patients who underwent minimally invasive thymic surgery (MITS) increased annually. The 5-year and 10-year survival rates of surgically treated TETs were 91.0% and 82.1%, respectively. The 5-year and 10-year recurrence rates were 86.3% and 80.0%, respectively. The outcomes of surgically treated TETs improved over time. Multivariable Cox hazards analysis for OS, age, tumor size, and Masaoka-Koga stage were independent predictors of prognosis. The World Health Organization classification and tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging were also related to the prognosis of TETs. Conclusion: Surgical treatment of TETs achieved a good prognosis with a recent increase in MITS. The M-K stage was the most important prognostic factor for OS and FFR. The new TNM stage could also be an effective predictor of the outcomes of TETs.

Application of multiple linear regression and artificial neural network models to forecast long-term precipitation in the Geum River basin (다중회귀모형과 인공신경망모형을 이용한 금강권역 강수량 장기예측)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.723-736
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    • 2022
  • In this study, monthly precipitation forecasting models that can predict up to 12 months in advance were constructed for the Geum River basin, and two statistical techniques, multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN), were applied to the model construction. As predictor candidates, a total of 47 climate indices were used, including 39 global climate patterns provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and 8 meteorological factors for the basin. Forecast models were constructed by using climate indices with high correlation by analyzing the teleconnection between the monthly precipitation and each climate index for the past 40 years based on the forecast month. In the goodness-of-fit test results for the average value of forecasts of each month for 1991 to 2021, the MLR models showed -3.3 to -0.1% for the percent bias (PBIAS), 0.45 to 0.50 for the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and 0.69 to 0.70 for the Pearson correlation coefficient (r), whereas, the ANN models showed PBIAS -5.0~+0.5%, NSE 0.35~0.47, and r 0.64~0.70. The mean values predicted by the MLR models were found to be closer to the observation than the ANN models. The probability of including observations within the forecast range for each month was 57.5 to 83.6% (average 72.9%) for the MLR models, and 71.5 to 88.7% (average 81.1%) for the ANN models, indicating that the ANN models showed better results. The tercile probability by month was 25.9 to 41.9% (average 34.6%) for the MLR models, and 30.3 to 39.1% (average 34.7%) for the ANN models. Both models showed long-term predictability of monthly precipitation with an average of 33.3% or more in tercile probability. In conclusion, the difference in predictability between the two models was found to be relatively small. However, when judging from the hit rate for the prediction range or the tercile probability, the monthly deviation for predictability was found to be relatively small for the ANN models.

Quantitative Electroencephalogram Markers for Predicting Cerebral Amyloid Pathology in Non-Demented Older Individuals With Depression: A Preliminary Study (비치매 노인 우울증 환자에서 대뇌 아밀로이드 병리 예측을 위한 정량화 뇌파 지표: 예비연구)

  • Park, Seon Young;Chae, Soohyun;Park, Jinsick;Lee, Dong Young;Park, Jee Eun
    • Sleep Medicine and Psychophysiology
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.78-85
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    • 2021
  • Objectives: When elderly patients show depressive symptoms, discrimination between depressive disorder and prodromal phase of Alzheimer's disease is important. We tested whether a quantitative electroencephalogram (qEEG) marker was associated with cerebral amyloid-β (Aβ) deposition in older adults with depression. Methods: Non-demented older individuals (≥ 55years) diagnosed with depression were included in the analyses (n = 63; 76.2% female; mean age ± standard deviation 73.7 ± 6.87 years). The participants were divided into Aβ+ (n = 32) and Aβ- (n = 31) groups based on amyloid PET assessment. EEG was recorded during the 7min eye-closed (EC) phase and 3min eye-open (EO) phase, and all EEG data were analyzed using Fourier transform spectral analysis. We tested interaction effects among Aβ positivity, condition (EC vs. EO), laterality (left, midline, or right), and polarity (frontal, central, or posterior) for EEG alpha band power. Then, the EC-to-EO alpha reactivity index (ARI) was examined as a neurophysiological marker for predicting Aβ+ in depressed older adults. Results: The mean power spectral density of the alpha band in EO phase showed a significant difference between the Aβ+ and Aβ- groups (F = 6.258, p = 0.015). A significant 3-way interaction was observed among Aβ positivity, condition, and laterality on alpha-band power after adjusting for age, sex, educational years, global cognitive function, medication use, and white matter hyperintensities on MRI (F = 3.720, p = 0.030). However, post-hoc analyses showed no significant difference in ARI according to Aβ status in any regions of interest. Conclusion: Among older adults with depression, increased power in EO phase alpha band was associated with Aβ positivity. However, EC-to-EO ARI was not confirmed as a predictor for Aβ+ in depressed older individuals. Future studies with larger samples are needed to confirm our results.

Classification Algorithm-based Prediction Performance of Order Imbalance Information on Short-Term Stock Price (분류 알고리즘 기반 주문 불균형 정보의 단기 주가 예측 성과)

  • Kim, S.W.
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.157-177
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    • 2022
  • Investors are trading stocks by keeping a close watch on the order information submitted by domestic and foreign investors in real time through Limit Order Book information, so-called price current provided by securities firms. Will order information released in the Limit Order Book be useful in stock price prediction? This study analyzes whether it is significant as a predictor of future stock price up or down when order imbalances appear as investors' buying and selling orders are concentrated to one side during intra-day trading time. Using classification algorithms, this study improved the prediction accuracy of the order imbalance information on the short-term price up and down trend, that is the closing price up and down of the day. Day trading strategies are proposed using the predicted price trends of the classification algorithms and the trading performances are analyzed through empirical analysis. The 5-minute KOSPI200 Index Futures data were analyzed for 4,564 days from January 19, 2004 to June 30, 2022. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, order imbalance information has a significant impact on the current stock prices. Second, the order imbalance information observed in the early morning has a significant forecasting power on the price trends from the early morning to the market closing time. Third, the Support Vector Machines algorithm showed the highest prediction accuracy on the day's closing price trends using the order imbalance information at 54.1%. Fourth, the order imbalance information measured at an early time of day had higher prediction accuracy than the order imbalance information measured at a later time of day. Fifth, the trading performances of the day trading strategies using the prediction results of the classification algorithms on the price up and down trends were higher than that of the benchmark trading strategy. Sixth, except for the K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm, all investment performances using the classification algorithms showed average higher total profits than that of the benchmark strategy. Seventh, the trading performances using the predictive results of the Logical Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and XGBoost algorithms showed higher results than the benchmark strategy in the Sharpe Ratio, which evaluates both profitability and risk. This study has an academic difference from existing studies in that it documented the economic value of the total buy & sell order volume information among the Limit Order Book information. The empirical results of this study are also valuable to the market participants from a trading perspective. In future studies, it is necessary to improve the performance of the trading strategy using more accurate price prediction results by expanding to deep learning models which are actively being studied for predicting stock prices recently.

The Relationship between Subjective Socioeconomic Status, Age and Perception of Justice: Focusing on the Moderation Effect of Age (주관적 사회경제적 지위, 연령, 공정성 인식 간의 관계: 연령의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Joeng, Ju-Ri;Lee, Ji Hae
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.219-239
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    • 2022
  • The study investigated the relationship between subjective socioeconomic status (SES) of 508 Korean adults and their perception of justice (distributive and procedural justice for self and general others), and verified whether there is a moderating effect of age (20s versus 30s and over). A self-report survey on SES and perception of justice was conducted. Then, using the SPSS 27 and PROCESS Macro 4.0 program, a correlation analysis looking into the relationship among the study variables was performed along with the ANOVAs comparing the mean differences of study across age-groups to support the group division criteria. Next, a moderation analysis was conducted. The main results of this study are as follows. First, the participants' SES showed a positive relationship with all sub-factors of justice perception and a negative relationship with age. Second, age had a inverse relationship on distributive justice for self and general others, and procedural justice for self, but a non significant relationship on procedural justice for general others. Third, when looking into the mean differences of the research variables according to age, the 20s had different characteristics compared to the 30s and over. In comparison, there were no significant differences within the 30s and over group. Fourth, the moderating effect of age in the relationship between subjective SES and perception of justice was positively significant in the case of distributive justice for self and procedural justice for general others. In the case of distributive justice for self, the positive slope of the graph in which subjective SES predicts distributive fairness for self was steeper in the 30s and older group compared to the 20s. Regarding the procedural justice for general others, subjective SES was not a significant predictor in the 20s group. However, SES positively predicted procedural justice in the 30s and older group. This study is meaningful since it suggested age differences in subjective SES and perceptions of justice by revealing the different relationship patterns of subjective SES and perception of justice according to age.

Recidivism Follow-Up Study on Sex offenders under Electronic Monitoring (성범죄 전자감독대상자들에 대한 재범추적 연구)

  • Lee, SeungWon;Lee, SueJung;Seo, HyeRan
    • Korean Journal of Forensic Psychology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.15-33
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    • 2021
  • In this study, we analyzed the difference in survival rates of those subject to electronic supervision of sex crimes based on the tracking of the period of recidivism and whether they were recidivism, and wanted to confirm the ability of the criminal record to predict recidivism. The criteria for recidivism were defined as cases where a conviction was confirmed due to a criminal case that occurred during the execution of electronic monitoring, and the date of recidivism was the date of occurrence of a case that was confirmed guilty. A total of 122 re-offenders were used in the analysis, and all of them were charged with electronic supervision for committing sex crimes. Studies have confirmed that the subjects commit the most recidivism within three years. In addition, in this study, the difference in survival rate between groups was analyzed after classifying mixed and sex recidivism cases. The number of members was 88 for the mixed recidivism group and 34 for the sex recidivism group. The analysis confirmed that both groups had the most recidivism within three years. There was a slight difference between the survival rate of the mixed recidivism group and the survival rate of the sex recidivism group. So the Log Rank Test and the Generalized Wilcoxon Test were conducted, but no statistically significant differences were identified(Wilcoxon statistic = 2.326, df = 1, p = .13, Log Rank = 1.345, df = 1, p = .25). Next, a Cox Regression analysis was performed to confirm the ability of the criminal record to predict recidivism. As a result, the number of criminal records(sex offense, violent crime) have been confirmed to be a good predictor of recidivism(X2=27.33, df=1, p< .001). As a result, the recidivism rate is gradually decreasing due to the implementation of the electronic monitoring. However, the duration of recidivism required by sex offenders in high-risk groups was found to be rather short. Currently, security measures against felons are being strengthened, so it is necessary to select high-risk groups. Therefore, based on the related studies, the characteristics of high-risk groups and the results of recidivism studies will be used as a basis for disposal within the criminal justice system, which will play a major role in granting objectivity.

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