• 제목/요약/키워드: Predictive indicators

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Do Stock Prices Reflect the Implications of Unexpected Inventories for Future Earnings? (과잉 재고자산투자의 시장반응에 대한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Chang-Bum;Park, Sang-Bong
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.63-85
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    • 2013
  • This study tries to investigate the fundamental implications inherent in inventory asset information(specifically, unexpected inventory investment) by analyzing how the relationship between unexpected inventory investment and future operating performance. And we study how is the response of the stock market participants to the fundamental implications inherent in inventory asset information. Prior papers often assume the efficient market and they view the significant relation between stock prices and financial indicators as evidence of the contribution of such indicators to future earnings. Leading indicators are attracting the market's attention for equity valuation. We study whether one leading indicator (unexpected Inventories) forecasts future earnings, and whether market participants fully reflect the predictive ability when they sets share prices(Mishkin test, 1983). Our empirical results of the study are summarized as follows. Current unexpected inventory investment is negatively associated with future operating performance. Also, our evidence is that the stock market participants overprice the contribution of unexpected inventory investment when predicting future earnings. Furthermore, a hedge strategy that uses the overpricing gives significant future abnormal returns. The overall results help the users of financial reports, researchers of accounting, and the accounting principle setting body.

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The Role of Tolerance to Promote the Improving the Quality of Training the Specialists in the Information Society

  • Oleksandr, Makarenko;Inna, Levenok;Valentyna, Shakhrai;Liudmyla, Koval;Tetiana, Tyulpa;Andrii, Shevchuk;Olena, Bida
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.12
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    • pp.63-70
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    • 2022
  • The essence of the definition of "tolerance" is analyzed. Motivational, knowledge and behavioral criteria for tolerance of future teachers are highlighted. Indicators of the motivational criterion are the formation of value orientations, motivational orientation, and the development of empathy. Originality and productivity of thoughts and judgments, tact of dialogue, pedagogical ethics and tact are confirmed as indicators of the knowledge criterion. The behavioral criterion includes social activity as a life position, emotional and volitional endurance, and self-control of one's own position. The formation of tolerance is influenced by a number of factors: the social environment, the information society, existing stereotypes and ideas in society, the system of education and relationships between people, and the system of values. The main factors that contribute to the education of tolerance in future teachers are highlighted. Analyzing the structure of tolerance, it is necessary to distinguish the following functions of tolerance: - motivational (determines the composition and strength of motivation for social activity and behavior, promotes the development of life experience, because it allows the individual to accept other points of view and vision of the solution; - informational (understanding the situation, the personality of another person); - regulatory (tolerance has a close connection with the strong - willed qualities of a person: endurance, selfcontrol, self-regulation, which were formed in the process of Education); - adaptive (allows the individual to develop in the process of joint activity a positive, emotional, stable attitude to the activity itself, which the individual carries out, to the object and subject of joint relations). The implementation of pedagogical functions in the information society: educational, organizational, predictive, informational, communicative, controlling, etc. provides grounds to consider pedagogical tolerance as an integrative personal quality of a representative of any profession in the field of "person-person". The positions that should become conditions for the formation of tolerance of the future teacher in the information society are listed.

Estimating Optimal-Band of NDVI and GNDVI by Vegetation Reflectance Characteristics of Crops.

  • Shin, Hyoung-Sub;Park, Jong-Hwa;Park, Jin-Ki;Kim, Seong-Joon;Lee, Mi-Seon
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.151-154
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    • 2008
  • Information on the area and spatial distribution of crop fields is needed for biomass production, arrangement of water resources, trace gas emission estimates, and food security. The present study aims to monitor crops status during the growing season by estimating its aboveground biomass and leaf area index (LAI) from field reflectance taken with a hand-held radiometer. Field reflectance values were collected over specific spectral bandwidths using a handheld radiometer(LI-1800). A methodology is described to use spectral reflectance as indicators of the vegetative status in crop cultures. Two vegetation indices were derived from these spectral measurements. In this paper, first we analyze each spectral reflectance characteristics of vegetation in the order of growth stage. Vegetation indices (NDVI, GNDVI) were calculated from crop reflectance. And assess the nature of relationships between LAI and VI, as measured by the in situ NDVI and GNDVI. Among the two VI, NDVI showed predictive ability across a wider range of LAI than did GNDVI. Specific objectives were to determine the relative accuracy of these two vegetation indices for predicting LAI. The results of this study indicated that the NDVI and GNDVI could potentially be applied to monitor crop agriculture on a timely and frequent basis.

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A Study of the Relationship Between Cognitive Ability and Information Searching Performance

  • Kim, Chang-Suk
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.303-317
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this study was to develop a framework for predicting searching performance through an understanding of how cognitive ability relates to searching process and outcome. Specifically, this study examined the relationship between spatial visualization, logical reasoning, integrative reasoning, and information searching process and outcome. Information searching process was assessed by seven search process indicators: (1) search command selection: (2) combination of search commands; (3) application of Boolean logic: (4) application of truncation; (5) use of limit search function; (6) number of search statements; and (7) number of search errors made. Searching outcome was assessed by the number of correct answers to search questions. Subjects first took three standardized cognitive tests that measured cognitive abilities, and performed online catalog searching in response to seven information search questions. The searches were logged using Lotus ScreenCam, and reviewed for the analysis. Factor analysis was used to find underlying structures of the seven search process variables. Multiple regression analysis was applied to examine the predictive power of three cognitive variables on three extracted factors, and search outcome. Results of the data analysis showed that individual differences in logical reasoning could predict information searching process and outcome.

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Development of a Simple Screening Test for Identifying Korean Elderly at Risk of Undernutrition (한국 노인의 영양부족위험 진단을 위한 간이조사표의 개발)

  • 김기남;현태선;이정원
    • Korean Journal of Community Nutrition
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.475-483
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    • 2000
  • The develop a simple screening test for identifying Korean elderly at risk of undernutrition, the data of the health-related habits, dietary behaviors and nutrient intakes of the elderly in Chongju were analyzed. Two risk indicators, mean adequacy ratio (MAR) and the respondents perceived health, were used to detect the undernutrition risk of the elderly. In order to select a list of questions for the test, factors a affecting nutritional status and items investigated in previous nutrition surveys of the elderly were considered, and 21 questions were primarily selected. A multiple regression and stepwise regression analysis were used to take out the weak predictors of poor nutrient intake, and to give item weights to the strong predictors, and a list of 17 questions was finally adopted. To determine the cut-point of the test score, sensitivity, and positive predictive values were calculated. The Simple Screening Test developed in this study is a brief, easily scored tool to predict poor nutrient intake and the perceived health status of the elderly. The test may provide a basis of further comprehensive nutritional assessment or intervention planning, if necessary, for those who are diagnosed ad "high risk". The test, however, needs to be independently validated by other groups of individuals.dividuals.

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Steady and unsteady flow computation in an elbow draft tube with experimental validation

  • Vu, Thi C.;Devals, Christophe;Zhang, Ying;Nennemann, Bernd;Guibault, Francois
    • International Journal of Fluid Machinery and Systems
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.85-96
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    • 2011
  • Steady state computations are routinely used by design engineers to evaluate and compare losses in hydraulic components. In the case of the draft tube diffuser, however, experiments have shown that while a significant number of operating conditions can adequately be evaluated using steady state computations, a few operating conditions require unsteady simulations to accurately evaluate losses. This paper presents a study that assesses the predictive capacity of a combination of steady and unsteady RANS numerical computations to predict draft tube losses over the complete range of operation of a Francis turbine. For the prediction of the draft tube performance using k-${\varepsilon}$ turbulence model, a methodology has been proposed to average global performance indicators of steady flow computations such as the pressure recovery factor over an adequate number of periods to obtain correct results. The methodology will be validated using two distinct flow solvers, CFX and OpenFOAM, and through a systematic comparison with experimental results obtained on the FLINDT model draft tube.

Spatiotemporal Gait Parameters That Predict Gait Function Based on Timed Up and Go Test Performance in the Hemiplegic Stroke Patients

  • Kim, Jeong-Soo;Kim, Jeong-Ah;Jeon, Hye-Seon;Yu, Kyung-Hoon
    • Physical Therapy Korea
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.40-46
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study was to determine which spatiotemporal gait parameters obtained during hemiplegic walking could be a predictive factor for the Timed Up and Go test (TUG). Two hundreds nine subjects who had suffered a stroke were recruited for this study. They were participated in two assessments; the TUG test and gait analysis. The relationship between the TUG test and spatiotemporal parameters was analyzed using Pearson's correlation coefficients. In addition, to predict the spatiotemporal gait parameters that correlated most with the TUG scores, we used multiple linear regression analyses (stepwise method). The results show that the normalized velocity was strongly correlated with the TUG performance (r=-.72, p<.001). Additionally, single support percentage (SSP), double support percentage (DSP), step time difference (STD), and step length difference (SLD) significantly were correlated with the TUG test. Normalized velocity, STD, DSP of affected side, and SSP of non-affected side explained 53%, 8%, 3%, 2%, of variance in the TUG test respectively. In conclusion, an increase in gait velocity and a decrease in STD would be effective indicators of improvement on the functional mobility in the stroke rehabilitation.

Formation of Scenarios for The Development of The Tourism Industry of Ukraine With The Help of Cognitive Modeling

  • Shelemetieva, Tetiana;Zatsepina, Nataly;Barna, Marta;Topornytska, Mariia;Tuchkovska, Iryna
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.8-16
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    • 2021
  • The tourism industry is influenced by a large number of factors that affect the development scenarios of the tourism in different ways. At the same time, tourism is an important component of the national economy of any state, forms its image, investment attractiveness, is a source of income and a stimulus for business development. The aim of the article is to conduct an empirical study to identify the importance of cognitive determinants in the development of tourism. The study used general and special methods: systems analysis, synthesis, grouping, systematization, cognitive modeling, cognitive map, pulse method, predictive extrapolation. Target factors, indicators, and control factors influencing the development of tourism in Ukraine are determined and a cognitive model is built, which graphically reflects the nature of the influence of these factors. Four main scenarios of the Ukrainian tourism industry are established on the basis of creating a matrix of adjacency of an oriented graph and forecast modeling based on a scenario approach. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of their use to forecast the prospects of tourism development in Ukraine, the definition of state policy to support the industry that will promote international and domestic tourism.

Interpretability Comparison of Popular Decision Tree Algorithms (대표적인 의사결정나무 알고리즘의 해석력 비교)

  • Hong, Jung-Sik;Hwang, Geun-Seong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 2021
  • Most of the open-source decision tree algorithms are based on three splitting criteria (Entropy, Gini Index, and Gain Ratio). Therefore, the advantages and disadvantages of these three popular algorithms need to be studied more thoroughly. Comparisons of the three algorithms were mainly performed with respect to the predictive performance. In this work, we conducted a comparative experiment on the splitting criteria of three decision trees, focusing on their interpretability. Depth, homogeneity, coverage, lift, and stability were used as indicators for measuring interpretability. To measure the stability of decision trees, we present a measure of the stability of the root node and the stability of the dominating rules based on a measure of the similarity of trees. Based on 10 data collected from UCI and Kaggle, we compare the interpretability of DT (Decision Tree) algorithms based on three splitting criteria. The results show that the GR (Gain Ratio) branch-based DT algorithm performs well in terms of lift and homogeneity, while the GINI (Gini Index) and ENT (Entropy) branch-based DT algorithms performs well in terms of coverage. With respect to stability, considering both the similarity of the dominating rule or the similarity of the root node, the DT algorithm according to the ENT splitting criterion shows the best results.

Potential of Digital Solutions in the Manufacturing Sector of the Russian Economy

  • Baurina, Svetlana;Pashkovskaya, Margarita;Nazarova, Elena;Vershinina, Anna
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.10
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    • pp.333-339
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of the article is to identify priority trends of technological innovations and strategic opportunities for using the smart potential to the benefit of the Russian industrial production development in the context of digital transformation. The article substantiates the demand for technological process automation at industrial enterprises in Russia and considers the possibilities of using artificial intelligence and the implementation of smart manufacturing in the industry. The article reveals the priorities of the leading Russian industrial companies in the field of digitalization, namely, an expansion of the use of cloud technologies, predictive analysis, IaaS services (virtual data storage and processing centers), supervisory control, and data acquisition (SCADA), etc. The authors give the characteristics of the monitoring of the smart manufacturing systems development indicators in the Russian Federation, conducted by Rosstat since 2020; presents projected data on the assessment of the required resources in relation to the instruments of state support for the development of smart manufacturing technologies for the period until 2024. The article determines targets for the development of smart technologies within the framework of the Federal Project "Digital Technologies".