• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictive growth model

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Predicting Successful Conservative Surgery after Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Hormone Receptor-Positive, HER2-Negative Breast Cancer

  • Ko, Chang Seok;Kim, Kyu Min;Lee, Jong Won;Lee, Han Shin;Lee, Sae Byul;Sohn, Guiyun;Kim, Jisun;Kim, Hee Jeong;Chung, Il Yong;Ko, Beom Seok;Son, Byung Ho;Ahn, Seung Do;Kim, Sung-Bae;Kim, Hak Hee;Ahn, Sei Hyun
    • Journal of Breast Disease
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.52-59
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: This study aimed to determine whether clinicopathological factors are potentially associated with successful breast-conserving surgery (BCS) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and develop a nomogram for predicting successful BCS candidates, focusing on those who are diagnosed with hormone receptor (HR)-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative tumors during the pre-NAC period. Methods: The training cohort included 239 patients with an HR-positive, HER2-negative tumor (${\geq}3cm$), and all of these patients had received NAC. Patients were excluded if they met any of the following criteria: diffuse, suspicious, malignant microcalcification (extent >4 cm); multicentric or multifocal breast cancer; inflammatory breast cancer; distant metastases at the time of diagnosis; excisional biopsy prior to NAC; and bilateral breast cancer. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the possible predictors of BCS eligibility after NAC, and the regression model was used to develop the predicting nomogram. This nomogram was built using the training cohort (n=239) and was later validated with an independent validation cohort (n=123). Results: Small tumor size (p<0.001) at initial diagnosis, long distance from the nipple (p=0.002), high body mass index (p=0.001), and weak positivity for progesterone receptor (p=0.037) were found to be four independent predictors of an increased probability of BCS after NAC; further, these variables were used as covariates in developing the nomogram. For the training and validation cohorts, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.833 and 0.786, respectively; these values demonstrate the potential predictive power of this nomogram. Conclusion: This study established a new nomogram to predict successful BCS in patients with HR-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer. Given that chemotherapy is an option with unreliable outcomes for this subtype, this nomogram may be used to select patients for NAC followed by successful BCS.

The Study on the Influential Factors on Commercial Gentrification in Seoul (서울시 상업젠트리피케이션 영향요인에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Gyoung-Sun;Kim, Dong-Sup
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.340-348
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzes the factors that influence commercial gentrification in Seoul by using both logit model analysis and machine learning with data cumulated from 2015 to 2018 regarding 158 market areas. Logit analysis indicates that log(market area average monthly rent) and the ratio of the purchasing amount by customers aged 40 and younger to total sales in the restaurant and retail business category are statistically significant at 1%; the increase in sales per female customer aged between 30 and 39 in the restaurant and retail business category is statistically significant at 5%; and the increase in number of retailers with a business history of less than two years in the franchise business category is significant at 10%. Machine learning indicates that significant factors ordered by importance are the total retail area, the existence of an industrial complex within the market area, the existence of a traditional market within the market area, the location of subway stations within the market area, the increase of entertainment facilities such as movie theaters within the market area, average monthly rent, and the growth rate of average monthly rent. The contribution of this research is threefold. First, this study analyzes the entire commercial area of Seoul, Korea. Second, this study provides a foundation for future research on predictive indicators by empirically investigating the factors that influence commercial gentrification in Seoul. Lastly, this study introduces various methods of research by utilizing a machine learning approach.

Investigating the Characteristics of Academia-Industrial Cooperation-based Patents for their Long-term Use (지속적 활용이 가능한 산학협력 특허 특성 분석)

  • Park, Sang-Young;Choi, Youngjae;Lee, Sungjoo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.568-578
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    • 2021
  • Patents that are research results from industry-university cooperation (IUC) are a source of innovation, and play an important role in economic growth, such as technology transfer and commercialization. For this reason, there are many efforts to revitalize IUC, but in general, company patents are achievements that can be commercialized, rather than research achievements, so not all patents are used for business, even after their creation as the outcome of IUC. Therefore, this research supports the design of measures in which IUC can ultimately be linked to successful utilization of patents by identifying the purposes of IUC, even after it has been successfully promoted, and patents have been filed as a result. To this end, first, the patents registered for industry-academia cooperation in the United States are collected, and second, a predictive model is designed, with unexpired and expired patents predicted using machine learning techniques. The final identified patents are intended to derive available factors in terms of marketability and technicality. This study is expected to help predict the utilization of unexpired and expired patents, and is expected to contribute to setting goals for research results from technical cooperation between corporate and university officials planning early IUC.

Validation of the Korean Version of the Continuing Bonds Scale (한국판 지속 유대 척도의 타당화)

  • Kyeyang Kim ;Jongwon Park ;Wan-Suk Gim
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.263-283
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    • 2016
  • The present study aimed at examining the factor structure, reliability and validity of the Korean version of the Continuing Bonds Scale (K-CBS). In study 1, exploratory factor analysis was administered to 293 bereaved adults who had experienced the death of a loved one, and it revealed a single factor structure with 10 items that explained 52.59% of the total variance. The K-CBS showed good internal consistency with Cronbach's alpha of .92. In study 2, confirmatory factor analysis in a different sample of 200 bereaved adults indicated satisfactory standardized regression weights of all items. However, one item had a squared multiple correlation less than .40, hence, this item was discarded, and 9 items remained for the final scale. The single factor model with 9 items displayed a good fit. The K-CBS had strong positive correlation with grief symptoms, and weak positive correlation with depression. After controlling for grief, however, the K-CBS was predictive of a decrease in depression. The K-CBS was positively associated with posttraumatic growth. In addition, significant differences in scores of the K-CBS were shown among groups based on the deceased's relation to the bereaved and expectedness of loss. These results suggest that the K-CBS is a reliable and valid instrument to measure continuing bonds. Finally, implications, limitations, and directions for future research were discussed.

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Development of a Rapid Enrichment Broth for Vibrio parahaemolyticus Using a Predictive Model of Microbial Growth with Response Surface Analysis (미생물 생장 예측모델과 반응표면분석법을 이용한 Vibrio parahaemolyticus의 신속 증균배지 개발)

  • Yeon-Hee Seo;So-Young Lee;Unji Kim;Se-Wook Oh
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.449-456
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    • 2023
  • In this study, we developed Rapid Enrichment Broth for Vibrio parahaemolyticus (REB-V), a broth capable enriching V. parahaemolyticus from 100 CFU/mL to 106 CFU/mL within 6 hours, which greatly facilitates the rapid detection of V. parahaemolyticus. Using a modified Gompertz model and response surface methodology, we optimized supplement sources to rapidly enrich V. parahaemolyticus. The addition of 0.003 g/10 mL of D-(+)-mannose, 0.002 g/10 mL of L-valine, and 0.002 g/10 mL of magnesium sulfate to 2% (w/v) NaCl BPW was the most effective combination of V. parahaemolyticus enrichment. Optimal V. parahaemolyticus culture conditions using REB-V were at pH 7.84 and 37℃. To confirm REB-V culture efficiency compared to 2% (w/v) NaCl BPW, we assessed the amount of enrichment achieved in 7 hours in each medium and extracted DNA samples from each culture every hour. Real-time PCR was performed using the extracted DNA to verify the applicability of this REB-V culture method to molecular diagnosis. V. parahaemolyticus was enriched to 5.452±0.151 Log CFU/mL in 2% (w/v) NaCl BPW in 7 hours, while in REB-V, it reached 7.831±0.323 Log CFU/mL. This confirmed that REB-V enriched V. parahaemolyticus to more than 106 CFU/mL within 6 hours. The enrichment rate of REB-V was faster than that of 2% (w/v) NaCl BPW, and the amount of enrichment within the same time was greater than that of 2% (w/v) NaCl BPW, indicating that REB-V exhibits excellent enrichment efficiency.

Drug Interaction between Ginseng Extract (GE) and Sorafenib (쏘라페닙과 홍삼추출물간의 약물상호작용)

  • Lee, Nam-Hee;Park, Ho-Jae;Rho, Ja-Sung;Kim, Mi-Kyung;Lee, Yu-Kyoung;Cho, Eun-A;Heo, Jeong;Cho, Mong;Hwang, Tae-Ho
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.21 no.11
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    • pp.1518-1525
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    • 2011
  • Sorafenib is the only approved systemic, therapeutic agent for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The use of Ginseng Extract (GE) in cancer patients is growing worldwide; however, drug interaction between sorafenib and GE has not been illuminated. Four different human cancer cell lines including HepG2 were used and immunocompetent mice were implanted subcutaneously with a mouse HCC cell line. Treatment with low dose GE stimulated cell growth, while a high dose inhibited growth. pERK (phosphorylation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase) was concomitantly increased and decreased respective of different doses of GE. Antitumoral effect of sorafenib decreased in non-proliferating phase cells but was sensitized after low dose GE (LDG) treatment. PD98059 (ERK phosphorylation inhibitor) efficiently blocked ERK phosphorylation, resulting in loss of sorafenib sensitization even after LDG treatment. In the HCC mouse model, LDG alone slightly increased tumor size while sorafenib alone significantly decreased it. However, a combination of LDG and sorafenib significantly decreased tumor size compared with sorafenib alone. Increase of pERK was observed in some normal mice organs and mild inflammatory change was observed in some of these organs, suggesting pERK activation by LDG may cause unexpected toxicity in normal cells. GE, dose-dependently, induced stimulation or inhibition in some human cancer cell lines. Combinational use of GE and sorafenib possibly potentiated an antitumoral response to sorafenib. pERK level has been provided as a potential predictive marker for sorafenib. Our result may suggest GE's dual effects in relation to pERK level in HCC cancer cell lines, and that certain doses of GE can sensitize sorafenib.

Serum Tumor Marker Levels might have Little Significance in Evaluating Neoadjuvant Treatment Response in Locally Advanced Breast Cancer

  • Wang, Yu-Jie;Huang, Xiao-Yan;Mo, Miao;Li, Jian-Wei;Jia, Xiao-Qing;Shao, Zhi-Min;Shen, Zhen-Zhou;Wu, Jiong;Liu, Guang-Yu
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.4603-4608
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    • 2015
  • Background: To determine the potential value of serum tumor markers in predicting pCR (pathological complete response) during neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively monitored the pro-, mid-, and post-neoadjuvant treatment serum tumor marker concentrations in patients with locally advanced breast cancer (stage II-III) who accepted pre-surgical chemotherapy or chemotherapy in combination with targeted therapy at Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center between September 2011 and January 2014 and investigated the association of serum tumor marker levels with therapeutic effect. Core needle biopsy samples were assessed using immunohistochemistry (IHC) prior to neoadjuvant treatment to determine hormone receptor, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2(HER2), and proliferation index Ki67 values. In our study, therapeutic response was evaluated by pCR, defined as the disappearance of all invasive cancer cells from excised tissue (including primary lesion and axillary lymph nodes) after completion of chemotherapy. Analysis of variance of repeated measures and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were employed for statistical analysis of the data. Results: A total of 348 patients were recruited in our study after excluding patients with incomplete clinical information. Of these, 106 patients were observed to have acquired pCR status after treatment completion, accounting for approximately 30.5% of study individuals. In addition, 147patients were determined to be Her-2 positive, among whom the pCR rate was 45.6% (69 patients). General linear model analysis (repeated measures analysis of variance) showed that the concentration of cancer antigen (CA) 15-3 increased after neoadjuvant chemotherapy in both pCR and non-pCR groups, and that there were significant differences between the two groups (P=0.008). The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) of pre-, mid-, and post-treatment CA15-3 concentrations demonstrated low-level predictive value (AUC=0.594, 0.644, 0.621, respectively). No significant differences in carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) or CA12-5 serum levels were observed between the pCR and non-pCR groups (P=0.196 and 0.693, respectively). No efficient AUC of CEA or CA12-5 concentrations were observed to predict patient response toward neoadjuvant treatment (both less than 0.7), nor were differences between the two groups observed at different time points. We then analyzed the Her-2 positive subset of our cohort. Significant differences in CEA concentrations were identified between the pCR and non-pCR groups (P=0.039), but not in CA15-3 or CA12-5 levels (p=0.092 and 0.89, respectively). None of the ROC curves showed underlying prognostic value, as the AUCs of these three markers were less than 0.7. The ROC-AUCs for the CA12-5 concentrations of inter-and post-neoadjuvant chemotherapy in the estrogen receptor negative HER2 positive subgroup were 0.735 and 0.767, respectively. However, the specificity and sensitivity values were at odds with each other which meant that improving either the sensitivity or specificity would impair the efficiency of the other. Conclusions: Serum tumor markers CA15-3, CA12-5, and CEA might have little clinical significance in predicting neoadjuvant treatment response in locally advanced breast cancer.

Improvement of the Seed Production Method of the Pen Shell -The Occurrence of Larvae and the Early Growth of the Spat- (키조개 채묘의 개발연구 -부유유생의 출현과 부착치패의 초기성장-)

  • YOO Sung Kyoo;LIM Hyun Sig;RYU Ho Youmg;KANG Kyoung Ho
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.206-216
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    • 1988
  • In order to set up a predictive model for effective spat collection of pen shell, Atrina (Servatrina) pectinata, the survival rate and time required at each developmental stage of drifting larvae were surveyed during the period from June 8 to October 16 in 1986 at the Yongku inlet Chilchon Is., Chinhae Bay, the southern part of Korea. And also the experiments of spat collection were carried out In Yongku inlet during the period from July 6 to November 23 in 1987 and In Yoja Bay during the period from July 9 in 1987 to February 15 in 1588. The advent of D-shape larvae ca. $135\times144um $ long had three peaks in that area: August 1, 12 and 25. Umbo shape larvae ca. $300\times317um$ and full grown larvae ca. $455\times450um$ long also sowed three peaks: August 9, August 22 and September 4 for the former, and August 23, September 3 and September 16 for the latter. Nine to ten days was required for D-shape larvae to develop to umbo shape larvae. The instantaneous survival rate was 0.94 with a total survival rate if $54\%$ at this intermorphological stage. The required time of umbo to full grown larvae varied from twelve to fourteen days with a instantaneous survival rate of 0.88 and total survival rate of $19\%$. Twenty-two to twenty-three days was required for each group of the D-shape larvae to reach a fullgrown stage, and their total survival rate was $10\%$ during this developmental period. The number of the spat attached to the spat collector is 0.16 inds. per $m^2$ vertical spat collector in Yongku inlet and 0.48 inds. per $m^2$ horizontal spat collector in Yoja Bay. The average shell length of spat attached was $0.51({\pm}0.15)\;mm$ on September $27,\;38.52({\pm}6.98)\;mm$ on November 21 in 1987 and $49.00({\pm}10.77)mm$ on February 15 in 1988.

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