• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictive growth model

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Reasonability of Logistic Curve on S/W (로지스틱 곡선을 이용한 타당성)

  • Kim, Sun-Il;Che, Gyu-Shik;Jo, In-June
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2008
  • The Logistic cone is studied as a most desirable for the software testing effort. Assuming that the error detection rate to the amount of testing effort spent during the testing phase is proportional to the current error content, a software-reliability growth model is formulated by a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Using this model the method of data analysis for software reliability measurement is developed. After defining a software reliability, This paper discusses the relations between testing time and reliability and between duration following failure fixing and reliability are studied SRGM in several literatures has used the exponential curve, Railleigh curve or Weibull cure as an amount of testing effort during software testing phase. However, it might not be appropriate to represent the consumption curve for testing effort by one of already proposed curves in some software development environments. Therefore, this paper shows that a logistic testing- effort function can be adequately expressed as a software development/testing effort curve and that it gives a good predictive capability based on real failure data.

An Analysis on the Effect of Policy Using Macro-economic Forecasting Model of Jeju (제주지역 거시경제 전망모형을 이용한 정책효과 분석)

  • Ko, Bong-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.458-465
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of policy in Jeju, using a macro-economic forecasting model of Jeju. First, the model's reality explanatory power improved by updating its statistics to 2017 and expanding new policy variables and modules. Also, the industrial structure of the model was further subdivided and extended to be considered simultaneously in the demand side of Keynesian theory. Second, it was determined that the predictive power for the model of this study was better than that of the existing model. However, with some endogenous variables, it was possible to identify implications that should be developed and considered when the model is improved with additional data in the future. Third, when the second airport construction was considered, it was observed that its effect was an increase of 1.25 times for GRDP, 1.2 times for employment, 1.48 times for private consumption, and 2.06 times for investment. Also, the economic growth rate was estimated to be 1.6% point higher than when the second airport was not constructed. Finally, the results of this study are expected to be used for policy decision making of the Jeju Government.

Development of Kinetic Models Describing Kinetic Behavior of Bacillus cereus and Staphylococcus aureus in Milk

  • Kim, Hyoun Wook;Lee, Sun-Ah;Yoon, Yohan;Paik, Hyun-Dong;Ham, Jun-Sang;Han, Sang-Ha;Seo, Kuk-Hwan;Jang, Aera;Park, Bum-Young;Oh, Mi-Hwa
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.155-161
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    • 2013
  • This study developed predictive models to evaluate the kinetic behaviors of Bacillus cereus and Staphylococcus aureus in milk during storage at various temperatures. B. cereus and S. aureus (3 Log CFU/mL) were inoculated into milk and stored at $10^{\circ}C$, $15^{\circ}C$, $20^{\circ}C$, and $30^{\circ}C$, as well as $5^{\circ}C$, $15^{\circ}C$, $25^{\circ}C$, and $35^{\circ}C$, respectively, while bacterial populations were enumerated. The growth data were fitted to the modified Gompertz model to estimate kinetic parameters, including the maximum specific growth rate (${\mu}_{max}$; Log CFU/[$mL{\cdot}h$]), lag phase duration (LPD; h), lower asymptote ($N_0$; Log CFU/mL), and upper asymptote ($N_{max}$; Log CFU/mL). To describe the kinetic behavior of B. cereus and S. aureus, the parameters were fitted to the square root model as a function of storage temperature. Finally, the developed models were validated with the observed data, and Bias (B) and Accuracy (A) factors were calculated. Cell counts of both bacteria increased with storage time. Primary modeling yielded the following parameters; ${\mu}_{max}$: 0.14-0.75 and 0.06-0.51 Log CFU/mL/h; LPD: 1.78-14.03 and 0.00-1.44 h, $N_0$: 3.10-3.37 and 2.09-3.07 Log CFU/mL, and $N_{max}$: 7.59-8.87 and 8.60-9.32 Log CFU/mL for B. cereus and S. aureus, respectively. Secondary modeling yielded a determination of coefficient ($R^2$) of 0.926.0.996. B factors were 1.20 and 0.94, and A factors were 1.16 and 1.08 for B. cereus and S. aureus, respectively. Thus, the mathematical models developed here should be useful in describing the kinetic behaviors of B. cereus and S. aureus in milk during storage.

Prediction of Growth of Escherichia coli O157 : H7 in Lettuce Treated with Alkaline Electrolyzed Water at Different Temperatures

  • Ding, Tian;Jin, Yong-Guo;Rahman, S.M.E.;Kim, Jai-Moung;Choi, Kang-Hyun;Choi, Gye-Sun;Oh, Deog-Hwan
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.232-237
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    • 2009
  • This study was conducted to develop a model for describing the effect of storage temperature (4, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and $35^{\circ}C$) on the growth of Escherichia coli O157 : H7 in ready-to-eat (RTE) lettuce treated with or without (control) alkaline electrolyzed water (AIEW). The growth curves were well fitted with the Gompertz equation, which was used to determine the specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT) of E. coli O157 : H7 ($R^2$ = 0.994). Results showed that the obtained SGR and LT were dependent on the storage temperature. The growth rate increased with increasing temperature from 4 to $35^{\circ}C$. The square root models were used to evaluate the effect of storage temperature on the growth of E. coli O157 : H7 in lettuce samples treated without or with AIEW. The coefficient of determination ($R^2$), adjusted determination coefficient ($R^2_{Adj}$), and mean square error (MSE) were employed to validate the established models. It showed that $R^2$ and $R^_{Adj}$ were close to 1 (> 0.93), and MSE calculated from models of untreated and treated lettuce were 0.031 and 0.025, respectively. The results demonstrated that the overall predictions of the growth of E. coli O157: H7 agreed with the observed data.

Study on Predicting the Designation of Administrative Issue in the KOSDAQ Market Based on Machine Learning Based on Financial Data (머신러닝 기반 KOSDAQ 시장의 관리종목 지정 예측 연구: 재무적 데이터를 중심으로)

  • Yoon, Yanghyun;Kim, Taekyung;Kim, Suyeong
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.229-249
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    • 2022
  • This paper investigates machine learning models for predicting the designation of administrative issues in the KOSDAQ market through various techniques. When a company in the Korean stock market is designated as administrative issue, the market recognizes the event itself as negative information, causing losses to the company and investors. The purpose of this study is to evaluate alternative methods for developing a artificial intelligence service to examine a possibility to the designation of administrative issues early through the financial ratio of companies and to help investors manage portfolio risks. In this study, the independent variables used 21 financial ratios representing profitability, stability, activity, and growth. From 2011 to 2020, when K-IFRS was applied, financial data of companies in administrative issues and non-administrative issues stocks are sampled. Logistic regression analysis, decision tree, support vector machine, random forest, and LightGBM are used to predict the designation of administrative issues. According to the results of analysis, LightGBM with 82.73% classification accuracy is the best prediction model, and the prediction model with the lowest classification accuracy is a decision tree with 71.94% accuracy. As a result of checking the top three variables of the importance of variables in the decision tree-based learning model, the financial variables common in each model are ROE(Net profit) and Capital stock turnover ratio, which are relatively important variables in designating administrative issues. In general, it is confirmed that the learning model using the ensemble had higher predictive performance than the single learning model.

Prediction of Greenhouse Strawberry Production Using Machine Learning Algorithm (머신러닝 알고리즘을 이용한 온실 딸기 생산량 예측)

  • Kim, Na-eun;Han, Hee-sun;Arulmozhi, Elanchezhian;Moon, Byeong-eun;Choi, Yung-Woo;Kim, Hyeon-tae
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2022
  • Strawberry is a stand-out cultivating fruit in Korea. The optimum production of strawberry is highly dependent on growing environment. Smart farm technology, and automatic monitoring and control system maintain a favorable environment for strawberry growth in greenhouses, as well as play an important role to improve production. Moreover, physiological parameters of strawberry plant and it is surrounding environment may allow to give an idea on production of strawberry. Therefore, this study intends to build a machine learning model to predict strawberry's yield, cultivated in greenhouse. The environmental parameter like as temperature, humidity and CO2 and physiological parameters such as length of leaves, number of flowers and fruits and chlorophyll content of 'Seolhyang' (widely growing strawberry cultivar in Korea) were collected from three strawberry greenhouses located in Sacheon of Gyeongsangnam-do during the period of 2019-2020. A predictive model, Lasso regression was designed and validated through 5-fold cross-validation. The current study found that performance of the Lasso regression model is good to predict the number of flowers and fruits, when the MAPE value are 0.511 and 0.488, respectively during the model validation. Overall, the present study demonstrates that using AI based regression model may be convenient for farms and agricultural companies to predict yield of crops with fewer input attributes.

Development of Helmholtz Solver for Thermo-Acoustic Instability within Combustion Devices (연소시스템의 열음향 불안정 예측을 위한 Helmholtz Solver 개발)

  • Kim, Seong-Ku;Choi, Hwan-Seok;Cha, Dong-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.445-455
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    • 2010
  • In order to effectively predict thermo-acoustic instability within real combustors of rocket engines and gas turbines, in the present study, the Helmholtz equation in conjunction with the time lag hypothesis is discretized by the finite element method on three-dimensional hybrid unstructured mesh. Numerical nonlinearity caused by the combustion response term is linearized by an iterative method, and the large-scale eigenvalue problem is solved by the Arnoldi method available in the ARPACK. As a consequence, the final solution of complex valued eigenfrequency and acoustic pressure field can be interpreted as resonant frequency, growth rate, and modal shape for acoustic modes of interest. The predictive capabilities of the present method have been validated against two academic problems with complex impedance boundary and premixed flame, as well as an ambient acoustic test for liquid rocket combustion chamber with/without baffle.

Effects of Obesity on Presentation of Breast Cancer, Lymph Node Metastasis and Patient Survival: A Retrospective Review

  • Kaviani, Ahmad;Neishaboury, MohamadReza;Mohammadzadeh, Narjes;Ansari-Damavandi, Maryam;Jamei, Khatereh
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.2225-2229
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    • 2013
  • Background: As data on the relation between obesity and lymph node ratio are missing in the literature, we here aimed to assess the impact of obesity on this parameter and other clinicopathological features of breast cancer cases and patient survival. Materials and Methods: Medical data of 646 patients, all referred to two centers in Tehran, Iran, were reviewed. Factors that showed significant association on univariate analysis were entered in a regression model. Kaplan-Meier and Cox-regression were employed for survival analysis. Results: Obesity was correlated with the expression of estrogen and progesterone receptor (p=0.004 and p=0.039, respectively), metastasis to axillary lymph nodes (p=0.017), higher lymph node rate (p<0.001) and larger tumor size (p<0.001). The effect of obesity was stronger in premenopausal women. There was no association between obesity and expression of human epidermal growth factor receptor. Three factors showed independent association with BMI on multivariate analysis; tumor size, estrogen receptor and lymph node ratio. Obesity was predictive of shorter disease-free survival with a hazard ratio of 3.324 (95%CI: 1.225-9.017) after controlling for the above-mentioned variables. Conclusions: The findings of this study support the idea that obese women experience more advanced disease with higher axillary lymph node ratio, and therefore higher stage at the time of diagnosis. Furthermore, obesity was associated with poorer survival independent of lymph node rate.

Neural Network Modeling for Software Reliability Prediction of Grouped Failure Data (그룹 고장 데이터의 소프트웨어 신뢰성 예측에 관한 신경망 모델)

  • Lee, Sang-Un;Park, Yeong-Mok;Park, Soo-Jin;Park, Jae-Heung
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.3821-3828
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    • 2000
  • Many software projects collect grouped failure data (failures in some failure interval or in variable time interval) rather than individual failure times or failure count data during the testing or operational phase. This paper presents the neural network (NN) modeling that is dble to predict cumulative failures in the variable future time for grouped failure data. ANN's predictive ability can be affected by what it learns and in its ledming sequence. Eleven training regimes that represents the input-output of NN are considered. The best training regimes dre selected rJdsed on the next' step dvemge reldtive prediction error (AE) and normalized AE (NAE). The suggested NN models are compared with other well-known KN models and statistical software reliability growth models (SHGlvls) in order to evaluate performance, Experimental results show that the NN model with variable time interval information is necessary in order to predict cumulative failures in the variable future time interval.

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$F_2$ Formant Frequency Characteristics of the Aging Male and Female Speakers (한국어 모음에서 연령증가에 따른 제2음형대의 변화양상)

  • 김찬우;차흥억;장일환;김선태;오승철;석윤식;이영숙
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Laryngology, Phoniatrics and Logopedics
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.119-123
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    • 1999
  • Background and Objectives : Conditions such as muscle atrophy, stretching of strap muscles, and continued craniofacial growth factors have been cited as contributing to the changes observed in the vocal tract structure and function in elderly speakers. The purpose of the present study is to compare F$_1$ and F$_2$ frequency levels in elderly and young adult male and female speakers producing a series of vowels ranging from high-front to low-back placement. Material and Methods : The subjects were two groups of young adults(10 males, 10 females, mean age 21 years old range 19-24 years) and two groups of elderly speakers(10 males, 10 females, mean age 67 years : range 60-84 years). Each subject participated in speech pathologist to be a speaker of unimpared standard Korean. The headphone was positioned 2 cm from the speakers lips. Each speaker sustained the five vowels for 5 s. Formant frequency measures were obtained from an analysis of linear predictive coding in CSL model 4300B(Kay co). Results : Repeated measure AVOVA procedures were completed on the $F_1$ and $F_2$ data for the male and female speakers. $F_2$ formant frequency levels were proven to be significantly lower fir elderly speakers. Conclusions : We presume $F_2$ vocal cavity(from the point of tongue constriction to lip) lengthening in elderly speakers. The research designed to observe dynamic speech production more directly will be needed.

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