• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictive decision tree

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Neural network rule extraction for credit scoring

  • Bart Baesens;Rudy Setiono;Lille, Valerina-De;Stijn Viaene
    • Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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    • 2001.01a
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    • pp.128-132
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    • 2001
  • In this paper, we evaluate and contrast four neural network rule extraction approaches for credit scoring. Experiments are carried our on three real life credit scoring data sets. Both the continuous and the discretised versions of all data sets are analysed The rule extraction algorithms, Neurolonear, Neurorule. Trepan and Nefclass, have different characteristics, with respect to their perception of the neural network and their way of representing the generated rules or knowledge. It is shown that Neurolinear, Neurorule and Trepan are able to extract very concise rule sets or trees with a high predictive accuracy when compared to classical decision tree(rule) induction algorithms like C4.5(rules). Especially Neurorule extracted easy to understand and powerful propositional if -then rules for all discretised data sets. Hence, the Neurorule algorithm may offer a viable alternative for rule generation and knowledge discovery in the domain of credit scoring.

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Developing the administrative model using the data mining technique for injury in National Health Insurance (데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 국민건강보험 상해상병 관리모형 개발)

  • Park, Il-Su;Han, Jun-Tae;Sohn, Hae-Sook;Kang, Suk-Bok
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.467-476
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    • 2011
  • We developed the hybrid model coupled with predictive model and business rule model for administration of injury by utilizing medical data of the National Health Insurance in Korea. We performed decision tree analysis using data mining methodology and used SAS Enterprise Miner 4.1. We also investigated under several business rule for benefits (expense paid by insurer) and claims of injury in National Health Insurance Corporation. We can see that the proposed hybrid model provides a quite efficient plausible results.

SVM based Stock Price Forecasting Using Financial Statements (SVM 기반의 재무 정보를 이용한 주가 예측)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • KIISE Transactions on Computing Practices
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.167-172
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    • 2015
  • Machine learning is a technique for training computers to be used in classification or forecasting. Among the various types, support vector machine (SVM) is a fast and reliable machine learning mechanism. In this paper, we evaluate the stock price predictability of SVM based on financial statements, through a fundamental analysis predicting the stock price from the corporate intrinsic values. Corporate financial statements were used as the input for SVM. Based on the results, the rise or drop of the stock was predicted. The SVM results were compared with the forecasts of experts, as well as other machine learning methods such as ANN, decision tree and AdaBoost. SVM showed good predictive power while requiring less execution time than the other machine learning schemes.

Comparing the Performance of 17 Machine Learning Models in Predicting Human Population Growth of Countries

  • Otoom, Mohammad Mahmood
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.220-225
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    • 2021
  • Human population growth rate is an important parameter for real-world planning. Common approaches rely upon fixed parameters like human population, mortality rate, fertility rate, which is collected historically to determine the region's population growth rate. Literature does not provide a solution for areas with no historical knowledge. In such areas, machine learning can solve the problem, but a multitude of machine learning algorithm makes it difficult to determine the best approach. Further, the missing feature is a common real-world problem. Thus, it is essential to compare and select the machine learning techniques which provide the best and most robust in the presence of missing features. This study compares 17 machine learning techniques (base learners and ensemble learners) performance in predicting the human population growth rate of the country. Among the 17 machine learning techniques, random forest outperformed all the other techniques both in predictive performance and robustness towards missing features. Thus, the study successfully demonstrates and compares machine learning techniques to predict the human population growth rate in settings where historical data and feature information is not available. Further, the study provides the best machine learning algorithm for performing population growth rate prediction.

Risk Factors for Sarcopenia, Sarcopenic Obesity, and Sarcopenia Without Obesity in Older Adults

  • Kim, Seo-hyun;Yi, Chung-hwi;Lim, Jin-seok
    • Physical Therapy Korea
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.177-185
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    • 2021
  • Background: Muscle undergoes change continuously with aging. Sarcopenia, in which muscle mass decrease with aging, is associated with various diseases, the risk of falling, and the deterioration of quality of life. Obesity and sarcopenia also have a synergy effect on the disease of the older adults. Objects: This study examined the risk factors for sarcopenia, sarcopenic obesity, and sarcopenia without obesity and developed prediction models. Methods: This machine-learning study used the 2008-2011 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys in the analysis. After data curation, 5,563 older participants were selected, of whom 1,169 had sarcopenia, 538 had sarcopenic obesity, and 631 had sarcopenia without obesity; the remaining 4,394 were normal. Decision tree and random forest models were used to identify risk factors. Results: The risk factors for sarcopenia chosen by both methods were body mass index (BMI) and duration of moderate physical activity; those for sarcopenic obesity were sex, BMI, and duration of moderate physical activity; and those for sarcopenia without obesity were BMI and sex. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of all prediction models exceeded 0.75. BMI could predict sarcopenia-related disease. Conclusion: Risk factors for sarcopenia-related diseases should be identified and programs for sarcopenia-related disease prevention should be developed. Data-mining research using population data should be conducted to enhance the effectiveness of early treatment for people with sarcopenia-related diseases through predictive models.

A Robust Energy Consumption Forecasting Model using ResNet-LSTM with Huber Loss

  • Albelwi, Saleh
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.7
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    • pp.301-307
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    • 2022
  • Energy consumption has grown alongside dramatic population increases. Statistics show that buildings in particular utilize a significant amount of energy, worldwide. Because of this, building energy prediction is crucial to best optimize utilities' energy plans and also create a predictive model for consumers. To improve energy prediction performance, this paper proposes a ResNet-LSTM model that combines residual networks (ResNets) and long short-term memory (LSTM) for energy consumption prediction. ResNets are utilized to extract complex and rich features, while LSTM has the ability to learn temporal correlation; the dense layer is used as a regression to forecast energy consumption. To make our model more robust, we employed Huber loss during the optimization process. Huber loss obtains high efficiency by handling minor errors quadratically. It also takes the absolute error for large errors to increase robustness. This makes our model less sensitive to outlier data. Our proposed system was trained on historical data to forecast energy consumption for different time series. To evaluate our proposed model, we compared our model's performance with several popular machine learning and deep learning methods such as linear regression, neural networks, decision tree, and convolutional neural networks, etc. The results show that our proposed model predicted energy consumption most accurately.

A Study on the Comparison of Predictive Models of Cardiovascular Disease Incidence Based on Machine Learning

  • Ji Woo SEOK;Won ro LEE;Min Soo KANG
    • Korean Journal of Artificial Intelligence
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, a study was conducted to compare the prediction model of cardiovascular disease occurrence. It is the No.1 disease that accounts for 1/3 of the world's causes of death, and it is also the No. 2 cause of death in Korea. Primary prevention is the most important factor in preventing cardiovascular diseases before they occur. Early diagnosis and treatment are also more important, as they play a role in reducing mortality and morbidity. The Results of an experiment using Azure ML, Logistic Regression showed 88.6% accuracy, Decision Tree showed 86.4% accuracy, and Support Vector Machine (SVM) showed 83.7% accuracy. In addition to the accuracy of the ROC curve, AUC is 94.5%, 93%, and 92.4%, indicating that the performance of the machine learning algorithm model is suitable, and among them, the results of applying the logistic regression algorithm model are the most accurate. Through this paper, visualization by comparing the algorithms can serve as an objective assistant for diagnosis and guide the direction of diagnosis made by doctors in the actual medical field.

An Outlier Detection Algorithm and Data Integration Technique for Prediction of Hypertension (고혈압 예측을 위한 이상치 탐지 알고리즘 및 데이터 통합 기법)

  • Khongorzul Dashdondov;Mi-Hye Kim;Mi-Hwa Song
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.417-419
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    • 2023
  • Hypertension is one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide. In recent years, the incidence of hypertension has increased dramatically, not only among the elderly but also among young people. In this regard, the use of machine-learning methods to diagnose the causes of hypertension has increased in recent years. In this study, we improved the prediction of hypertension detection using Mahalanobis distance-based multivariate outlier removal using the KNHANES database from the Korean national health data and the COVID-19 dataset from Kaggle. This study was divided into two modules. Initially, the data preprocessing step used merged datasets and decision-tree classifier-based feature selection. The next module applies a predictive analysis step to remove multivariate outliers using the Mahalanobis distance from the experimental dataset and makes a prediction of hypertension. In this study, we compared the accuracy of each classification model. The best results showed that the proposed MAH_RF algorithm had an accuracy of 82.66%. The proposed method can be used not only for hypertension but also for the detection of various diseases such as stroke and cardiovascular disease.

A Study on the Development of Readmission Predictive Model (재입원 예측 모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Yun-Jung;Kim, Yoo-Mi;Han, Seung-Woo;Choe, Jun-Yeong;Baek, Seol-Gyeong;Kang, Sung-Hong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.435-447
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    • 2019
  • In order to prevent unnecessary re-admission, it is necessary to intensively manage the groups with high probability of re-admission. For this, it is necessary to develop a re-admission prediction model. Two - year discharge summary data of one university hospital were collected from 2016 to 2017 to develop a predictive model of re-admission. In this case, the re-admitted patients were defined as those who were discharged more than once during the study period. We conducted descriptive statistics and crosstab analysis to identify the characteristics of rehospitalized patients. The re-admission prediction model was developed using logistic regression, neural network, and decision tree. AUC (Area Under Curve) was used for model evaluation. The logistic regression model was selected as the final re-admission predictive model because the AUC was the best at 0.81. The main variables affecting the selected rehospitalization in the logistic regression model were Residental regions, Age, CCS, Charlson Index Score, Discharge Dept., Via ER, LOS, Operation, Sex, Total payment, and Insurance. The model developed in this study was limited to generalization because it was two years data of one hospital. It is necessary to develop a model that can collect and generalize long-term data from various hospitals in the future. Furthermore, it is necessary to develop a model that can predict the re-admission that was not planned.

Predicting Surgical Complications in Adult Patients Undergoing Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion Using Machine Learning

  • Arvind, Varun;Kim, Jun S.;Oermann, Eric K.;Kaji, Deepak;Cho, Samuel K.
    • Neurospine
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.329-337
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    • 2018
  • Objective: Machine learning algorithms excel at leveraging big data to identify complex patterns that can be used to aid in clinical decision-making. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the performance of machine learning models in predicting postoperative complications following anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF). Methods: Artificial neural network (ANN), logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and random forest decision tree (RF) models were trained on a multicenter data set of patients undergoing ACDF to predict surgical complications based on readily available patient data. Following training, these models were compared to the predictive capability of American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification. Results: A total of 20,879 patients were identified as having undergone ACDF. Following exclusion criteria, patients were divided into 14,615 patients for training and 6,264 for testing data sets. ANN and LR consistently outperformed ASA physical status classification in predicting every complication (p < 0.05). The ANN outperformed LR in predicting venous thromboembolism, wound complication, and mortality (p < 0.05). The SVM and RF models were no better than random chance at predicting any of the postoperative complications (p < 0.05). Conclusion: ANN and LR algorithms outperform ASA physical status classification for predicting individual postoperative complications. Additionally, neural networks have greater sensitivity than LR when predicting mortality and wound complications. With the growing size of medical data, the training of machine learning on these large datasets promises to improve risk prognostication, with the ability of continuously learning making them excellent tools in complex clinical scenarios.