• 제목/요약/키워드: Predictive ability

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Comparative molecular field analyses (CoMFA) on the antifungal activity against phytophthora blight fungus of 3-phenylisoxazole and 3-phenyl-2,5-dihydroisoxazol-5-one derivatives (고추 역병균에 대한 3-phenylisoxazole과 3-phenyl-2,5-dihydroisoxazol-5-one 유도체들의 살균 활성에 관한 비교 분자장 분석 (CoMFA))

  • Sung, Nack-Do;Lee, Hee-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.72-79
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    • 2002
  • 3D-QSAR between fungicidal activitives ($pI_{50}$) against metalaxyl-sensitive (SPC: 95CC7105) or metalaxyl-resisitant (RPC: 95CC7303) isolate of phytophthora blight fungus (Phytophthora capsici), and a set of 3-phenylisoxazole (A) and 3-phenyl-2,5-dihydroisoxazole (B) derivatives as substrates were conducted using comparative molecular field analyses (CoMFA). The antifungal activities of (A) were generally higher than those of (B). And it is assumed that the most stable conformation of the active substrate was approximately planar from conformational search. The CoMFA models proved a good predictive ability and suggested that the electronic field of substrates were higher than hydropohobic field and steric field requirements for recognition forces of the receptor site. And the factors were strongly correlated (cross-validated $q^2>0.570$ & conventional $r^2>0.968$) with the fungicidal activitives. According to the CoMFA analyses, the selectivity factors for RPC suggested that the sterically bulky groups (C14 & C15) and electron withdrawing groups (C15 & C16) have to be introduced to the ortho, meta and para-position on the benzoyl moiety of substrates.

Pre-treatment Metabolic Tumor Volume and Total Lesion Glycolysis are Useful Prognostic Factors for Esophageal Squamous Cell Cancer Patients

  • Li, Yi-Min;Lin, Qin;Zhao, Long;Wang, Li-Chen;Sun, Long;Dai, Ming-Ming;Luo, Zuo-Ming;Zheng, Hua;Wu, Hua
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.1369-1373
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    • 2014
  • Objectives: To study application of the maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) with $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT for predicting prognosis of esophageal squamous cell cancer (ESC) patients. Methods: Eighty-six patients with ESC staged from I to IV were prospectively enrolled. Cisplatin-based chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) or palliative chemoradiotherapy were the main treatment methods and none received surgery. $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT scans were performed before the treatment. SUVmax, MTV, and TLG were measured for the primary esophageal lesion and regional lymph nodes. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) were generated to calculate the P value of the predictive ability and the optimal threshold. Results: MTV and TLG proved to be good indexes in the prediction of outcome for the ESC patients. An MTV value of 15.6 ml and a TLG value of 183.5 were optimal threshold to predict the overall survival (OS). The areas under the curve (AUC) for MTV and TLG were 0.74 and 0.70, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed an MTV less than 15.6 ml and a TLG less than 183.5 to indicate good media survival time (p value <0.05). In the stage III-IV patient group, MTV could better predict the OS (P < 0.001), with a sensitivity and specificity of 0.80 and 0.67, respectively. Conclusions: Pre-treatment MTV and TLG are useful prognostic factors in nonsurgical ESC.

Does Human Epididymis Protein 4 (HE4) Have a Role in Prediction of Recurrent Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

  • Innao, Pedrada;Pothisuwan, Methasinee;Pengsa, Prasit
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제17권9호
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    • pp.4483-4486
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    • 2016
  • Background: Despite the fact that ovarian cancer is the seventh most common cancer in women worldwide and the fifth leading cause of cancer death, It is the most common cause of death due to reproductive cancers in Thailand where epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is commonly found. According to a Thai statistical analysis in 2010 by the Department of Medical Services, epithelial ovarian cancer was the sixth most common cancer in Thailand from 2001to 2003.The incidence of 5.1 per 100,000 women per year. Human epididymis protein 4 (HE4) is a novo diagnostic tumor marker for EOC. The combination of HE4 and carcinoma antigen 125 (CA 125) is a tool for detecting epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) better than using CA 125 alone. Therefore, the researcher is interested in HE4 does have a role to predict recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer. Materials and Methods: The patients who had complete response after diagnosed with epithelial ovarian cancer by pathology, FIGO stage 3 or more had been treated through surgery and chemotherapy at the Sunpasitthiprasong Hospital from June 2014 until March 2016. The patients were followed up every three months, using tumor marker (CA 125, HE4,Carcinoma antigen 19-9) together with other checkup methods, such as rectovaginal examination, CXR every year and other imaging as indication. Afterwards, the data was analyzed for the ability of HE4 to detect recurrence of epithelial ovarian cancer. Results: In 47 patients in this study follow-up for 22 months after complete response treatment from surgery and chemotherapy in epithelial ovarian cancer, 23 had recurrent disease and HE4 titer rising. The patients with recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer demonstrated high levels of both HE4 and CA125 with sensitivity of 91.3% and 52.7% respectively, specificity of 87.5% and 95.6% and positive predictive values of 87.5% and 85.7%. HE4 can predict recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer (p-value=0.02242). Comparing HE4 and CA125 in predicting recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer HE4 had more potential than CA125 (p-value =0.8314). Conclusions: The present study showed HE4 to have a role in predicting recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer and HE4 is potentially better than CA125 as a marker for this purpose.

Taxonomy of Performance Shaping Factors for Human Error Analysis of Railway Accidents (철도사고의 인적오류 분석을 위한 수행도 영향인자 분류)

  • Baek, Dong-Hyun;Koo, Lock-Jo;Lee, Kyung-Sun;Kim, Dong-San;Shin, Min-Ju;Yoon, Wan-Chul;Jung, Myung-Chul
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • 제31권1호
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    • pp.41-48
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    • 2008
  • Enhanced machine reliability has dramatically reduced the rate and number of railway accidents but for further reduction human error should be considered together that accounts for about 20% of the accidents. Therefore, the objective of this study was to suggest a new taxonomy of performance shaping factors (PSFs) that could be utilized to identify the causes of a human error associated with railway accidents. Four categories of human factor, task factor, environment factor, and organization factor and 14 sub-categories of physical state, psychological state, knowledge/experience/ability, information/communication, regulation/procedure, specific character of task, infrastructure, device/MMI, working environment, external environment, education, direction/management, system/atmosphere, and welfare/opportunity along with 131 specific factors was suggested by carefully reviewing 8 representative published taxonomy of Casualty Analysis Methodology for Maritime Operations (CASMET), Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM), Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), Integrated Safety Investigation Methodology (ISIM), Korea-Human Performance Enhancement System (K-HPES), Rail safety and Standards Board (RSSB), $TapRoot^{(R)}$, and Technique for Retrospective and Predictive Analysis of Cognitive Errors (TRACEr). Then these were applied to the case of the railway accident occurred between Komo and Kyungsan stations in 2003 for verification. Both cause decision chart and why-because tree were developed and modified to aid the analyst to find causal factors from the suggested taxonomy. The taxonomy was well suited so that eight causes were found to explain the driver's error in the accident. The taxonomy of PSFs suggested in this study could cover from latent factors to direct causes of human errors related with railway accidents with systematic categorization.

Ability of Biochemical Parameters to Distinguish between Bile Duct Cancer and Gall Bladder Stones - A Case Control Study in a Tertiary Care Hospital of Pokhara Valley

  • Yadav, Shambhu Kumar;Mittal, Ankush;Sapkota, Kumar;Gupta, Satrudhan Prasad;Sathian, Brijesh
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.817-819
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    • 2013
  • Background: The present study was designed to comparatively assess alteration of biochemical parameters in bile duct cancer and gall stone disease. Materials and Methods: A hospital based case-control study was carried out in the Department of Biochemistry of Manipal Teaching Hospital, Pokhara, Nepal between $1^{st}$ January 2010 and $31^{st}$ December 2012. The variables collected were age, gender, serum total cholesterol, total bilirubin, AST, ALT, serum alkaline phosphatase, albumin and hemoglobin. One way ANOVA was used to examine the statistical significance of differences between groups. A post-hoc LSD test was applied for the comparison of means of control versus case groups. A p-value of <0.05 (two-tailed) was considered significant. Results: The mean age of cases and controls was $53.2{\pm}21.2$ years. The levels of serum cholesterol were higher in cases of cancer $192.5{\pm}21.5$ mg/dl in comparison to stone cases $168.7{\pm}16.1$ mg/dl (p value: 0.0001). The total bilirubin showed the marked difference in cases of cancer $7.6{\pm}3.2$ mg/dl in comparison to stone cases $2.5{\pm}0.8$ mg/dl of bile duct. There was discernible divergence in values of alkaline phosphatase in cases of cancer $251.5{\pm}20.1$ IU/l when compared to stone cases $173.2{\pm}12.6$ IU/l of bile duct. In contrast, there was no apparent deviation in values of aspartate transaminases and alanine transaminases in cases of cancer $59.1{\pm}8.9$ IU/l and $105.5{\pm}26.5$ IU/l when compared to stone cases $56.9{\pm}7.9$ IU/l and $84.5{\pm}13.5$ IU/l respectively. Conclusions: LFT analysis for pre-operative assessment was a good predictive marker in setting apart bile duct cancer and gall bladder stone.

Availability of the Time and Change Test in Screening for Dementia in the Elderly (노인에서 치매 조기선별을 위한 시각.금전계산 검사의 유용성)

  • Chung, Eun-Kyung;Shin, Min-Ho;Rhee, Jung-Ae
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제36권2호
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    • pp.101-107
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    • 2003
  • Objectives : Dementia has emerged as a leading public health problem in elderly persons, and its early detection is important for the treatment of curable cases, and in the educational support for other family members. Although dementia screening tests are available, they have not gained widespread use in community or primary care settings. Our goal was to validate the Tine and Change (T&C) Test, -including its validity and reliability in patients, and to assess it as a simple, standardized method for the screening of dementia in the rural elderly. Methods : The participants in this study comprised of 59 patients from an urban hospital and 405 persons from a rural community aged 65 years or older. The time test evaluated the understanding of clock hands indicating 11:10, and the change test the ability to make 1,000 Won from a group of coins, consisting of one 500, seven 100, and seven 50 Won coins. The T&C ratings were validated against a reference standard based on the physician's diagnosis of the patients. The convergent validity in relation to other cognitive measure, test-retest agreement, and inter-observer reliability were assessed. To assess the relationship between the Korean Mini-Mental State Exam (K-MMSE) and the T&C Test, the mean K-MMSE scores were compared with the results of the T&C Test in the elderly from a rural community. Results The T&C Test had a sensitivity and specificity of 73.0, and 90.9%, and positive and negative predictive values of 93.1, and 66.7%, respectively. The test-retest and inter-observer agreement rates were both 95%. The K-MMSE scores and T&C Test were significantly related in the elderly from a rural community (p<0.01), The T&C Test was not influenced by the educational status. The Time and Change Tests took a mean of 6.3 and 12.7 seconds, respectively, to complete Conclusion : The T&C Test is a simple, accurate and reliable, performance-based tool in the screening for dementia. Because it is quick, and easy-to-use, it is hoped the T&C Test will be used for the widespread cognitive screening of aging populations.

Comparison of Partial Least Squares and Support Vector Machine for the Flash Point Prediction of Organic Compounds (유기물의 인화점 예측을 위한 부분최소자승법과 SVM의 비교)

  • Lee, Chang Jun;Ko, Jae Wook;Lee, Gibaek
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • 제48권6호
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    • pp.717-724
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    • 2010
  • The flash point is one of the most important physical properties used to determine the potential for fire and explosion hazards of flammable liquids. Despite the needs of the experimental flash point data for the design and construction of chemical plants, there is often a significant gap between the demands for the data and their availability. This study have built and compared two models of partial least squares(PLS) and support vector machine(SVM) to predict the experimental flash points of 893 organic compounds out of DIPPR 801. As the independent variables of the models, 65 functional groups were chosen based on the group contribution method that was oriented from the assumption that each fragment of a molecule contributes a certain amount to the value of its physical property, and the logarithm of molecular weight was added. The prediction errors calculated from cross-validation were employed to determine the optimal parameters of two models. And, an optimization technique should be used to get three parameters of SVM model. This work adopted particle swarm optimization that is one of heuristic optimization methods. As the selection of training data can affect the prediction performance, 100 data sets of randomly selected data were generated and tested. The PLS and SVM results of the average absolute errors for the whole data range from 13.86 K to 14.55 K and 7.44 K to 10.26 K, respectively, indicating that the predictive ability of the SVM is much superior than PLS.

Predictors of Protective Factors for Depression in Adolescent using Decision Making Tree Analysis (의사결정나무분석을 이용한 청소년 우울의 보호요인 예측모형)

  • Kim, Bo-Young
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • 제15권5호
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    • pp.375-385
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    • 2015
  • The study is to develop specific strategies to prevent adolescents' depression, early detection and intervention services. This study was a descriptive research study with the purpose of predictors of protective factors for depression in adolescent using decision making tree analysis. The subjects for the study were 485 student in G city. This study collected data between September 23, 2013 and September 26, 2013 and analyzed them with frequency analysis, percentage, the mean and standard deviation, ${\chi}^2$-test, t-test, and a decision-making tree by using SPSS 20.0 program. From the data analysis, the predictive model for protective factors related to depression in adolescent with 4 pathways, 12 nodes. The common predicting variables of depression in adolescent were characteristics, family cohesion, parent adolescent communication, peer communication. The specialty of training data and test data was 76.0% and 65.4%. The sensitivity of training data was 78.2% and 63.7%. As for the classification accuracy, training data and test data explained 70.1% and 69.7%. Parent adolescent communication and peer communication to decrease depression of Korean middle and high school students are necessary. This study should contribute as baseline data for intervention strategies and planning ability of depression prevention in adolescents.

ATM Signaling Pathway Is Implicated in the SMYD3-mediated Proliferation and Migration of Gastric Cancer Cells

  • Wang, Lei;Wang, Qiu-Tong;Liu, Yu-Peng;Dong, Qing-Qing;Hu, Hai-Jie;Miao, Zhi;Li, Shuang;Liu, Yong;Zhou, Hao;Zhang, Tong-Cun;Ma, Wen-Jian;Luo, Xue-Gang
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.295-305
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: We previously found that the histone methyltransferase suppressor of variegation, enhancer of zeste, trithorax and myeloid-nervy-deformed epidermal autoregulatory factor-1 domain-containing protein 3 (SMYD3) is a potential independent predictive factor or prognostic factor for overall survival in gastric cancer patients, but its roles seem to differ from those in other cancers. Therefore, in this study, the detailed functions of SMYD3 in cell proliferation and migration in gastric cancer were examined. Materials and Methods: SMYD3 was overexpressed or suppressed by transfection with an expression plasmid or siRNA, and a wound healing migration assay and Transwell assay were performed to detect the migration and invasion ability of gastric cancer cells. Additionally, an MTT assay and clonogenic assay were performed to evaluate cell proliferation, and a cell cycle analysis was performed by propidium iodide staining. Furthermore, the expression of genes implicated in the ataxia telangiectasia mutated (ATM) pathway and proteins involved in cell cycle regulation were detected by polymerase chain reaction and western blot analyses. Results: Compared with control cells, gastric cancer cells transfected with si-SMYD3 showed lower migration and invasion abilities (P<0.05), and the absence of SMYD3 halted cells in G2/M phase and activated the ATM pathway. Furthermore, the opposite patterns were observed when SMYD3 was elevated in normal gastric cells. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the first evidence that the absence of SMYD3 could inhibit the migration, invasion, and proliferation of gastric cancer cells and halt cells in G2/M phase via the ATM-CHK2/p53-Cdc25C pathway. These findings indicated that SMYD3 plays crucial roles in the proliferation, migration, and invasion of gastric cancer cells and may be a useful therapeutic target in human gastric carcinomas.

Do Stock Prices Reflect the Implications of Unexpected Inventories for Future Earnings? (과잉 재고자산투자의 시장반응에 대한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Chang-Bum;Park, Sang-Bong
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • 제32권1호
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    • pp.63-85
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    • 2013
  • This study tries to investigate the fundamental implications inherent in inventory asset information(specifically, unexpected inventory investment) by analyzing how the relationship between unexpected inventory investment and future operating performance. And we study how is the response of the stock market participants to the fundamental implications inherent in inventory asset information. Prior papers often assume the efficient market and they view the significant relation between stock prices and financial indicators as evidence of the contribution of such indicators to future earnings. Leading indicators are attracting the market's attention for equity valuation. We study whether one leading indicator (unexpected Inventories) forecasts future earnings, and whether market participants fully reflect the predictive ability when they sets share prices(Mishkin test, 1983). Our empirical results of the study are summarized as follows. Current unexpected inventory investment is negatively associated with future operating performance. Also, our evidence is that the stock market participants overprice the contribution of unexpected inventory investment when predicting future earnings. Furthermore, a hedge strategy that uses the overpricing gives significant future abnormal returns. The overall results help the users of financial reports, researchers of accounting, and the accounting principle setting body.

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