• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictive Value of Tests

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Discrepancies and Validation of Ethanol Level Determination with Osmolar Gap Formula in Patients with Suspected Acute Poisoning (급성 중독환자에서 삼투압 계산식으로 추정된 에탄올 농도의 유효성 검증)

  • Jung, Haewon;Lee, Mi Jin;Cho, Jae Wan;Ahn, Jae Yun;Kim, Changho
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Clinical Toxicology
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: Osmolar gap (OG) has been used for decades to screen for toxic alcohol levels. However, its reliability may vary due to several reasons. We validated the estimated ethanol concentration formula for patients with suspected poisoning and who visited the emergency department. We examined discrepancies in the ethanol level and patient characteristics by applying this formula when it was used to screen for intoxication due to toxic levels of alcohol. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 153 emergency department cases to determine the measured levels of toxic ethanol ingestion and we calculated alcohol ingestion using a formula based on serum osmolality. Those patients who were subjected to simultaneous measurements of osmolality, sodium, urea, glucose, and ethanol were included in this study. Patients with exposure to other toxic alcohols (methanol, ethylene glycol, or isopropanol) or poisons that affect osmolality were excluded. OG (the measured-calculated serum osmolality) was used to determine the calculated ethanol concentration. Results: Among the 153 included cases, 114 had normal OGs (OG≤14 mOsm/kg), and 39 cases had elevated OGs (OG>14). The mean difference between the measured and estimated (calculated ethanol using OG) ethanol concentration was -9.8 mg/dL. The 95% limits of agreement were -121.1 and 101.5 mg/dL, and the correlation coefficient R was 0.7037. For the four subgroups stratified by comorbidities and poisoning, the correlation coefficients R were 0.692, 0.588, 0.835, and 0.412, respectively, and the mean differences in measurement between the measured and calculated ethanol levels were -2.4 mg/dL, -48.8 mg/dL, 9.4 mg/dL, and -4.7 mg/dL, respectively. The equation plots had wide limits of agreement. Conclusion: We found that there were some discrepancies between OGs and the calculated ethanol concentrations. Addition of a correction factor for unmeasured osmoles to the equation of the calculated serum osmolality would help mitigate these discrepancies.

Clinical Utility of Polymerase Chain Reaction for the Differentiation of Nontuberculous Mycobacteria in Patients with Acid-fast Bacilli Smear-positive Specimens (객담 항산균 도말 양성 환자에서 비결핵항산균과의 감별을 위한 결핵균 중합효소연쇄반응 검사의 유용성)

  • Lee, Jae Seung;Ji, Hyun Shuk;Hong, Sang Bum;Oh, Yeon-Mok;Lim, Chae-Man;Lee, Sang Do;Koh, Younsuck;Kim, Woo Sung;Kim, Dong Soon;Kim, Won Dong;Shim, Tae Sun
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.58 no.5
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    • pp.452-458
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    • 2005
  • Background : In Korea, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test for M. tuberculosis has been used for the diagnosis of acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smear-negative tuberculosis in order to increase diagnostic sensitivity. However, there have been no data dealing with the clinical utility of PCR in AFB smear-positive patients to differentiate between M. tuberculosis and nontuberculous mycobacteria. Method : We retrospectively analyzed the PCR test results which have been performed in patients who had AFB smear-positive sputum but had ambiguous clinical manifestations of active tuberculosis. PCR test was done using $AMPLICOR^{\hat{a}}$ M. tuberculosis kit. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the PCR test were calculated based on culture and final clinical diagnosis result. Results : Fifty-six consecutive patients (62 PCR tests) were included in the study. Active tuberculosis was diagnosed in 23 patients (41.0%), while 9 patients had NTM infection (16.0%). The sensitivity, specificity, positive- and negative-predictive value of PCR test were 88.8%, 86.8%, 76.1% and 94.3%, respectively, according to the culture result. In comparison, they were 91.3%, 100%, 100%, 94.3%, respectively, according to the final clinical diagnosis. All 15 patients with NTM isolates, including 6 patients who had other lung diseases but expectorated NTM isolate, were negative for PCR test. Conclusion : Even though tuberculosis is still prevalent in Korea, PCR test is useful to differentiate between M. tuberculosis and NTM in patients with AFB-smear positive sputum but with ambiguous clinical manifestations of active tuberculosis.

Differential Diagnosis By Analysis of Pleural Effusion (흉수분석에 의한 질병의 감별진단)

  • Ko, Won-Ki;Lee, Jun-Gu;Jung, Jae-Ho;Park, Mu-Suk;Jeong, Nak-Yeong;Kim, Young-Sam;Yang, Dong-Gyoo;Yoo, Nae-Choon;Ahn, Chul-Min;Kim, Sung-Kyu
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.559-569
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    • 2001
  • Background : Pleural effusion is one of the most common clinical manifestations associated with a variety of pulmonary diseases such as malignancy, tuberculosis, and pneumonia. However, there are no useful laboratory tests to determine the specific cause of pleural effusion. Therefore, an attempt was made to analyze the various types of pleural effusion and search for useful laboratory tests for pleural effusion in order to differentiate between the diseases, especially between a malignant pleural effusion and a non-malignant pleural effusion. Methods : 93 patients with a pleural effusion, who visited the Severance hospital from January 1998 to August 1999, were enrolled in this study. Ultrasound-guided thoracentesis was done and a confirmational diagnosis was made by a gram stain, bacterial culture, Ziehl-Neelsen stain, a mycobacterial culture, a pleural biopsy and cytology. Results : The male to female ratio was 56 : 37 and the average age was $47.1{\pm}21.8$ years. There were 16 cases with a malignant effusion, 12 cases with a para-malignant effusion, 36 cases with tuberculosis, 22 cases with a para-pneumonic effusion, and 7 cases with transudate. The LDH2 fraction was significantly higher in the para-malignant effusion group compared to the para-pneumonic effusion group [$30.6{\pm}6.4%$ and $20.2{\pm}7.5%$, respectively (p<0.05)] and both the LDH1 and LDH2 fraction was significantly in the para-malignant effusion group compared to those with tuberculosis [$16.4{\pm}7.2%$ vs. $7.6{\pm}4.7%$, and $30.6{\pm}6.4%$ vs.$17.6{\pm}6.3%$, respectively (p<0.05)]. The pleural effusion/serum LDH4 fraction ratio was significantly lower in the malignant effusion group compared to those with tuberculosis [$1.5{\pm}0.8$ vs. $2.1{\pm}0.6$, respectively (p<0.05)]. The LDH4 fraction and the pleural effusion/serum LDH4 fraction ratio was significantly lower in the para-malignant effusion group compared to those with tuberculosis [$17.0{\pm}5.8%$ vs. $23.5{\pm}4.6%$ and $1.3{\pm}0.4$ vs. $2.1{\pm}0.6$, respectively (p<0.05)]. Conclusion : These results suggest that the LDH isoenzyme was the only useful biochemical test for a differential diagnosis of the various diseases. In particular, the most useful test was the pleural effusion/serum LDH4 fraction ratio to distinguish between a para-malignant effusion and a tuberculous effusion.

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An Empirical Study on Korean Stock Market using Firm Characteristic Model (한국주식시장에서 기업특성모형 적용에 관한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Soo-Kyung;Park, Jong-Hae;Byun, Young-Tae;Kim, Tae-Hyuk
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2010
  • This study attempted to empirically test the determinants of stock returns in Korean stock market applying multi-factor model proposed by Haugen and Baker(1996). Regression models were developed using 16 variables related to liquidity, risk, historical price, price level, and profitability as independent variables and 690 stock monthly returns as dependent variable. For the statistical analysis, the data were collected from the Kis Value database and the tests of forecasting power in this study minimized various possible bias discussed in the literature as possible. The statistical results indicated that: 1) Liquidity, one-month excess return, three-month excess return, PER, ROE, and volatility of total return affect stock returns simultaneously. 2) Liquidity, one-month excess return, three-month excess return, six-month excess return, PSR, PBR, ROE, and EPS have an antecedent influence on stock returns. Meanwhile, realized returns of decile portfolios increase in proportion to predicted returns. This results supported previous study by Haugen and Baker(1996) and indicated that firm-characteristic model can better predict stock returns than CAPM. 3) The firm-characteristic model has better predictive power than Fama-French three-factor model, which indicates that a portfolio constructed based on this model can achieve excess return. This study found that expected return factor models are accurate, which is consistent with other countries' results. There exists a surprising degree of commonality in the factors that are most important in determining the expected returns among different stocks.

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