• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictive Equation

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Factors Affecting Cage Obliquity and the Relationship between Cage Obliquity and Radiological Outcomes in Oblique Lateral Interbody Fusion at the L4-L5 Level

  • CheolWon Jang;SungHwan Hwang;Tae Kyung Jin;Hyung Jin Shin;Byung-Kyu Cho
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.66 no.6
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    • pp.703-715
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    • 2023
  • Objective : This retrospective study investigated the factors that affect cage obliquity angle despite orthogonal maneuvers performed during oblique lateral interbody fusion (OLIF) and assessed the relationship between cage obliquity angle and radiological outcomes post-surgery. Methods : Twenty-nine males who underwent L4-L5 OLIF for lumbar degenerative disease between 2019 and 2021 with a followup duration greater than 12 months were analyzed. Radiological parameters were measured including psoas muscle volume, total psoas area index (total psoas muscle area [cm2]/height squared [m2]), distance from the iliac artery to the origin of the psoas muscle (DIAPM), angle between the origin of the psoas muscle and the center of the vertebral disc (APCVD), iliac crest height, disc height, lumbar flexibility (lumbar flexion angle minus extension angle), cage location ratio, cage-induced segmental lumbar lordosis (LL) (postoperative index level segmental LL minus used cage angle), foraminal height changes, fusion grade. Results : DIAPM, APCVD, iliac crest height, postoperative index level segmental LL, and cage-induced segmental LL were significantly correlated with OLIF cage obliquity angle. However, other radiological parameters did not correlate with cage obliquity. Based on multiple regression analysis, the predictive equation for the OLIF cage obliquity angle was 13.062-0.318×DIAPM+0.325×1APCVD+0.174×iliac crest height. The greater the cage obliquity, the smaller the segmental LL compared to the cage angle used. Conclusion : At the L4-L5 level, OLIF cage obliquity was affected by DIAPM, APCVD, and iliac crest height, and as the cage obliquity angle increases, LL agnle achievable by the used cage could not be obtained.

Predicting Single-hole Blast-induced Fracture Zone Using Finite Element Analysis

  • Jawad Ur Rehman;Duhee Park
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.25 no.7
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    • pp.5-19
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    • 2024
  • During the blasting process, a fracture zone is formed in the vicinity of the blast hole. Any damage that extends beyond the excavation boundary line necessitates the implementation of an additional support system to assure safety. Typically, fracture zone radius is estimated from blast hole pressure using theoretical methods due to its simplicity. However, linear charge concentration (kg/m) is used for tunnel blasting. This paper compiles Swedish experimental datasets to estimate the radius of fracture zones based on linear charge concentration. Further numerical analyses are performed in LS-DYNA for coupled single-hole blasting. The Riedel-Hiermaier-Thoma (RHT) model has been selected as the constitutive model for this investigation. The numerical model is validated against small-scale laboratory tests. Parametric studies are conducted to predict fracture zones in granite and sandstone rocks using two kinds of explosives, PETN and AFNO. The analyses evaluate ten types of blast hole sizes, ranging from 17 to 100 mm. The results indicate that granite has a larger fracture zone than sandstone, and the PETN explosive predicts more damage than ANFO. Smaller blast holes exhibit smaller fracture zones in comparison to larger blast holes. Wave propagation is more rapidly attenuated in granite than in sandstone. Subsequently, the predicted fracture zone outcomes are compared with the empirical dataset. Fracture zones of medium blast hole diameter align well with the experimental data set. A predictive equation is derived from the data set, which may be used to evaluate blast design to manage fracture zones beyond the excavation line.

Application of near-infrared spectroscopy for hay evaluation at different degrees of sample preparation

  • Eun Chan Jeong;Kun Jun Han;Farhad Ahmadi;Yan Fen Li;Li Li Wang;Young Sang Yu;Jong Geun Kim
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • v.37 no.7
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    • pp.1196-1203
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    • 2024
  • Objective: A study was conducted to quantify the performance differences of the near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) calibration models developed with different degrees of hay sample preparations. Methods: A total of 227 imported alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) and another 360 imported timothy (Phleum pratense L.) hay samples were used to develop calibration models for nutrient value parameters such as moisture, neutral detergent fiber, acid detergent fiber, crude protein, and in vitro dry matter digestibility. Spectral data of hay samples prepared by milling into 1-mm particle size or unground were separately regressed against the wet chemistry results of the abovementioned parameters. Results: The performance of the developed NIRS calibration models was evaluated based on R2, standard error, and ratio percentage deviation (RPD). The models developed with ground hay were more robust and accurate than those with unground hay based on calibration model performance indexes such as R2 (coefficient of determination), standard error, and RPD. Although the R2 of calibration models was mainly greater than 0.90 across the feed value indexes, the R2 of cross-validations was much lower. The R2 of cross-validation varies depending on feed value indexes, which ranged from 0.61 to 0.81 in alfalfa, and from 0.62 to 0.95 in timothy. Estimation of feed values in imported hay can be achievable by the calibrated NIRS. However, the NIRS calibration models must be improved by including a broader range of imported hay samples in the modeling. Conclusion: Although the analysis accuracy of NIRS was substantially higher when calibration models were developed with ground samples, less sample preparation will be more advantageous for achieving rapid delivery of hay sample analysis results. Therefore, further research warrants investigating the level of sample preparations compromising analysis accuracy by NIRS.

A Development of Risk-Taking Behavior Forecasting Model of Taxi driver's Risk-Taking Propensity by Structural Analysis (택시운수업 종사자 위험성향 관련 변인들의 구조적 분석을 통한 위험감행 예측 모형 개발)

  • Park, Mi So;Yoon, Hyo Jin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.4D
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    • pp.313-322
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    • 2012
  • This study analyzes taxi driver's risk-taking propensity with respect to risk-taking behaviour and traffic locus of control. In order to explore the traffic risk-taking, we present a predictive model by structural analysis of driver's risk-taking propensity. By applying this model to survey data from taxi drivers, we can observe that driver's risk-taking propensity has a significant impact on the traffic violation intention, and the higher perception of law and the lower lack of law-abiding drivers have, the more they tend to violate. Second, we test using multivariate analysis if the level of risk-taking propensity differs by the locus of control( external or internal). Drivers of external control shows higher risk-taking level compared to those of internal control so that the risk-taking propensity shows difference according to the locus of control for the responsibility of traffic accidents. The structural equation model of our study yielded ${\chi}^2$ = 279.7, ${\chi}^2$/df = 1.55, RMSEA = 0.44, GFI = 0.911, TLI = 0.916, CFI = 0.929.

A Study on Intention of Selecting Tree Burials by Using the Theory of Planned Behavior (계획행동이론을 적용한 수목장 선택의도에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Mi;Kim, Sang-Oh
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.812-826
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    • 2012
  • The selection rate of tree burials (TB) is still low in spite of increasing concerns about TB and government's efforts to increase TB participation. It is necessary to understand the factors affecting TB selection. This study investigated the relationship between major variables (attitude: ATT; subjective norm: SN; perceived behavioral control: PBC) of Ajzen's theory of planned behavior (TPB), additional variable (custom: CUST), and intention to select TB by using structural equation modelling (SEM). Samples were selected from Gwang-ju citizens using proportionate stratified sampling (PST) by region during September of 2011. Four hundred and twelve responses were used for data analysis. The model showed fair goodness of fit. All four variables (ATT, SN, PBC, CUST) influenced intention to select TB. The four variables explained 53.0% of intention to select TB. SN(${\beta}$=0.459) was the most predictive variable on the intention, followed by ATT(${\beta}$=0.247), PBC(${\beta}$=0.152), and CUST(${\beta}$=0.102) in decreasing order. The results were discussed and some suggestions to increase the intention of tree burial selection were made.

Comparison of pooled Versus Individual Sera in Avian Infectious Bronchitis Virus Seroprevalence Study (닭 전염성 기관지염 바이러스의 혈청 유병률 연구에서 개별혈청과 합병혈청의 비교)

  • Kim, Sa-Rim;Kwon, Hyuk-Moo;Sung, Haan-Woo;Pak, Son-Il
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.416-420
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    • 2006
  • Compare to testing sera individually, pooled-serum testing has considered as a cost-effective method, particularly on a large population-based seroprevalence studies. This study was to determine the relationship between individual sera and pooled sera titers for detection of avian infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) and to evaluate suitability of pooled sera by comparing prevalences estimated from both samples. A total of 5,000 individual samples were collected from 500 flocks in Chungcheong, Gyunsgi, and Kangwon provinces between January 2005 and February 2006. Ten samples were randomly selected from each flock. Five-hundred pooled sera were prepared by mixing equal amount of each 10 individual serum from the original samples. IBV antibody titers were measured by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) test. The least squares regression analysis was performed to construct equation between pooled and mean individual titers. To determine whether the flock is infected 4 arbitrary criteria were used: detection of at least 1 chicken with HI titer ${\ge}$ 9 (criterion 1), detection of at least 2 samples with HI titer ${\ge}$9 (criterion 2), detection of at least 1 sample with HI titer ${\ge}$ 10 (criterion 3), and filially detection of at least 1 sample with HI titer ${\ge}$ 11 (criterion 4). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to examine the cut-off points of pooled titers showing optimal diagnostic accuracy. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivities (Se), specificities (Sp), and positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values were calculated. The regression equation between pooled titers (pool) and mean individual titers (mean) was: $pool= 1.2498+0.8952{\times}mean$, with coefficient of determination of 87% (p< 0.0001). The optimal cut-off points of pooled titers were titer 8 for criterion 1 (AUC=0.975, Se=0.883, Sp=0.959, PPV=0.985, NPV=0.728), titer 8 for criterion 2 (AUC=0.969, Se=0.954, Sp=0.855, PPV=0.926, NPV=0.907), titer 9 for criterion 3 (AUC=0.970, Se=0.836, Sp=0.967, PPV=0.978, NPV=0.772), and titer 9 for criterion 4 (AUC= 0.946, Se=0.928, Sp=0.843, PPV=0.857, NPV=0.921). The difference of 'prevalence estimated by individual and pooled sample showed a minimum of 2% for criteria 2 and a maximum of 9.1:% for criteria 3. These results indicate that the use of pooled sera in HI test for screening IBV infection in laying hen flocks is considered as a cost-effective method of testing large numbers of samples with high diagnostic accuracy.

Development of Simple Prediction Method for Injury Severity and Amount of Traumatic Hemorrhage via Analysis of the Correlation between Site of Pelvic Bone Fracture and Amount of Transfusion: Pelvic Bleeding Score (골반골절 환자의 골절위치와 출혈량간의 상관관계 분석을 통한 대량수혈 필요에 대한 간단한 예측도구 개발: 골반골 출혈 지수)

  • Lee, Sang Sik;Bae, Byung Kwan;Han, Sang Kyoon;Park, Sung Wook;Ryu, Ji Ho;Jeong, Jin Woo;Yeom, Seok Ran
    • Journal of Trauma and Injury
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.139-144
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: Hypovolemic shock is the leading cause of death in multiple trauma patients with pelvic bone fracures. The purpose of this study was to develop a simple prediction method for injury severity and amount of hemorrhage via an analysis of the correlation between the site of pelvic bone fracture and the amount of transfusion and to verify the usefulness of the such a simple scoring system. Methods: We analyzed retrospectively the medical records and radiologic examination of 102 patients who had been diagnosed as having a pelvic bone fracture and who had visited the Emergency Department between January 2007 and December 2011. Fracture sites in the pelvis were confirmed and re-classified anatomically as pubis, ilium or sacrum. A multiple linear regression analysis was performed on the amount of transfusion, and a simplified scoring system was developed. The predictive value of the amount of transfusion for the scoring system as verified by using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC). The area under the curve of the ROC was compared with the injury severity score (ISS). Results: From among the 102 patients, 97 patients (M:F=68:29, mean $age=46.7{\pm}16.6years$) were enrolled for analysis. The average ISS of the patients was $16.2{\pm}7.9$, and the average amount of packed RBC transfusion for 24 hr was $3.9{\pm}4.6units$. The regression equation resulting from the multiple linear regression analysis was 'packed RBC units=1.40${\times}$(sacrum fracture)+1.72${\times}$(pubis fracture)+1.67${\times}$(ilium fracture)+0.36' and was found to be suitable (p=0.005). We simplified the regression equation to 'Pelvic Bleeding Score=sacrum+pubis+ilium.' Each fractured site was scored as 0(no fracture) point, 1(right or left) point, or 2(both) points. Sacrum had only 0 or 1 point. The score ranged from 0 to 5. The area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC was 0.718 (95% CI: 0.588-0.848, p=0.009). For an upper Pelvis Bleeding Score of 3 points, the sensitivity of the prediction for a massive transfusion was 71.4%, and the specificity was 69.9%. Conclusion: We developed a simplified scoring system for the anatomical fracture sites in the pelvis to predict the requirement for a transfusion (Pelvis Bleeding Score (PBS)). The PBS, compared with the ISS, is considered a useful predictor of the need for a transfusion during initial management.

Effects of feeding level on nutrient digestibility and enteric methane production in growing goats (Capra hircus hircus) and Sika deer (Cervus nippon hortulorum)

  • Na, Youngjun;Li, Dong Hua;Choi, Yongjun;Kim, Kyoung Hoon;Lee, Sang Rak
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.31 no.8
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    • pp.1238-1243
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    • 2018
  • Objective: Two experiments were conducted to determine the effects of feeding level on nutrient digestibility and enteric methane ($CH_4$) emissions in growing goats and Sika deer. Methods: Three growing male goats (initial body weight [BW] of $22.4{\pm}0.9kg$) and three growing male deer (initial BW of $20.2{\pm}4.8kg$) were each allotted to a respiration-metabolism chamber for an adaptation period of 7 d and a data collection period of 3 d. An experimental diet was offered to each animal at one of three feeding levels (1.5%, 2.0%, and 2.5% of BW) in a $3{\times}3$ Latin square design. The chambers were used for measuring enteric $CH_4$ emission. Results: Nutrient digestibility decreased linearly in goats as feeding level increased, whereas Sika deer digestibility was not affected by feeding level. The enteric production of $CH_4$ expressed as g/kg dry matter intake (DMI), g/kg organic matter intake, and % of gross energy intake decreased linearly with increased feeding level in goats; however, that of Sika deer was not affected by feeding level. Six equations were estimated for predicting the enteric $CH_4$ emission from goats and Sika deer. For goat, equation 1 was found to be of the highest accuracy: $CH_4(g/d)=6.2({\pm}14.1)+10.2({\pm}7.01){\times}DMI(kg/d)+0.0048({\pm}0.0275){\times}dry$ matter digestibility (DMD, g/kg)-0.0070 (${\pm}0.0187$)${\times}$neutral detergent fiber digestibility (NDFD; g/kg). For Sika deer, equation 4 was found to be of the highest accuracy: $CH_4(g/d)=-13.0({\pm}30.8)+29.4({\pm}3.93){\times}DMI(kg/d)+0.046(0.094){\times}DMD(g/kg)-0.0363({\pm}0.0636){\times}NDFD(g/kg)$. Conclusion: Increasing the feeding level increased $CH_4$ production in both goats and Sika deer, and predictive models of enteric $CH_4$ production by goats and Sika deer were estimated.

Discrepancies and Validation of Ethanol Level Determination with Osmolar Gap Formula in Patients with Suspected Acute Poisoning (급성 중독환자에서 삼투압 계산식으로 추정된 에탄올 농도의 유효성 검증)

  • Jung, Haewon;Lee, Mi Jin;Cho, Jae Wan;Ahn, Jae Yun;Kim, Changho
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Clinical Toxicology
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: Osmolar gap (OG) has been used for decades to screen for toxic alcohol levels. However, its reliability may vary due to several reasons. We validated the estimated ethanol concentration formula for patients with suspected poisoning and who visited the emergency department. We examined discrepancies in the ethanol level and patient characteristics by applying this formula when it was used to screen for intoxication due to toxic levels of alcohol. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 153 emergency department cases to determine the measured levels of toxic ethanol ingestion and we calculated alcohol ingestion using a formula based on serum osmolality. Those patients who were subjected to simultaneous measurements of osmolality, sodium, urea, glucose, and ethanol were included in this study. Patients with exposure to other toxic alcohols (methanol, ethylene glycol, or isopropanol) or poisons that affect osmolality were excluded. OG (the measured-calculated serum osmolality) was used to determine the calculated ethanol concentration. Results: Among the 153 included cases, 114 had normal OGs (OG≤14 mOsm/kg), and 39 cases had elevated OGs (OG>14). The mean difference between the measured and estimated (calculated ethanol using OG) ethanol concentration was -9.8 mg/dL. The 95% limits of agreement were -121.1 and 101.5 mg/dL, and the correlation coefficient R was 0.7037. For the four subgroups stratified by comorbidities and poisoning, the correlation coefficients R were 0.692, 0.588, 0.835, and 0.412, respectively, and the mean differences in measurement between the measured and calculated ethanol levels were -2.4 mg/dL, -48.8 mg/dL, 9.4 mg/dL, and -4.7 mg/dL, respectively. The equation plots had wide limits of agreement. Conclusion: We found that there were some discrepancies between OGs and the calculated ethanol concentrations. Addition of a correction factor for unmeasured osmoles to the equation of the calculated serum osmolality would help mitigate these discrepancies.

Development of a Predictive Model Describing the Growth of Staphylococcus aureus in Pyeonyuk marketed (시중 유통판매 중인 편육에서의 Staphylococcus aureus 성장예측모델 개발)

  • Kim, An-Na;Cho, Joon-Il;Son, Na-Ry;Choi, Won-Seok;Yoon, Sang-Hyun;Suh, Soo-Hwan;Kwak, Hyo-Sun;Joo, In-Sun
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.206-210
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    • 2017
  • This study was performed to develope mathematical models for predicting growth kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus in the processed meat product, pyeonyuk. Growth patterns of S. aureus in pyeonyuk were determined at the storage temperatures of 4, 10, 20, and $37^{\circ}C$ respectively. The number of S. aureus in pyeonyuk increased at all the storage temperatures. The maximum specific growth rate (${\mu}_{max}$) and lag phase duration (LPD) values were calculated by Baranyi model. The ${\mu}_{max}$ values went up, while the LPD values decreased as the storage temperature increased from $4^{\circ}C$ to $37^{\circ}C$. Square root model and polynomial model were used to develop the secondary models for ${\mu}_{max}$ and LPD, respectively. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was used to evaluate the developed model and the fitness was determind to be 0.42. Therefore the developed predictive model was useful to predict the growth of S. aureus in pyeonyuk and it will help to prevent food-born disease by expanding for microbial sanitary management guide.