• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction-Based

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Personalized Exhibition Booth Recommendation Methodology Using Sequential Association Rule (순차 연관 규칙을 이용한 개인화된 전시 부스 추천 방법)

  • Moon, Hyun-Sil;Jung, Min-Kyu;Kim, Jae-Kyeong;Kim, Hyea-Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.195-211
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    • 2010
  • An exhibition is defined as market events for specific duration to present exhibitors' main product range to either business or private visitors, and it also plays a key role as effective marketing channels. Especially, as the effect of the opinions of the visitors after the exhibition impacts directly on sales or the image of companies, exhibition organizers must consider various needs of visitors. To meet needs of visitors, ubiquitous technologies have been applied in some exhibitions. However, despite of the development of the ubiquitous technologies, their services cannot always reflect visitors' preferences as they only generate information when visitors request. As a result, they have reached their limit to meet needs of visitors, which consequently might lead them to loss of marketing opportunity. Recommendation systems can be the right type to overcome these limitations. They can recommend the booths to coincide with visitors' preferences, so that they help visitors who are in difficulty for choices in exhibition environment. One of the most successful and widely used technologies for building recommender systems is called Collaborative Filtering. Traditional recommender systems, however, only use neighbors' evaluations or behaviors for a personalized prediction. Therefore, they can not reflect visitors' dynamic preference, and also lack of accuracy in exhibition environment. Although there is much useful information to infer visitors' preference in ubiquitous environment (e.g., visitors' current location, booth visit path, and so on), they use only limited information for recommendation. In this study, we propose a booth recommendation methodology using Sequential Association Rule which considers the sequence of visiting. Recent studies of Sequential Association Rule use the constraints to improve the performance. However, since traditional Sequential Association Rule considers the whole rules to recommendation, they have a scalability problem when they are adapted to a large exhibition scale. To solve this problem, our methodology composes the confidence database before recommendation process. To compose the confidence database, we first search preceding rules which have the frequency above threshold. Next, we compute the confidences of each preceding rules to each booth which is not contained in preceding rules. Therefore, the confidence database has two kinds of information which are preceding rules and their confidence to each booth. In recommendation process, we just generate preceding rules of the target visitors based on the records of the visits, and recommend booths according to the confidence database. Throughout these steps, we expect reduction of time spent on recommendation process. To evaluate proposed methodology, we use real booth visit records which are collected by RFID technology in IT exhibition. Booth visit records also contain the visit sequence of each visitor. We compare the performance of proposed methodology with traditional Collaborative Filtering system. As a result, our proposed methodology generally shows higher performance than traditional Collaborative Filtering. We can also see some features of it in experimental results. First, it shows the highest performance at one booth recommendation. It detects preceding rules with some portions of visitors. Therefore, if there is a visitor who moved with very a different pattern compared to the whole visitors, it cannot give a correct recommendation for him/her even though we increase the number of recommendation. Trained by the whole visitors, it cannot correctly give recommendation to visitors who have a unique path. Second, the performance of general recommendation systems increase as time expands. However, our methodology shows higher performance with limited information like one or two time periods. Therefore, not only can it recommend even if there is not much information of the target visitors' booth visit records, but also it uses only small amount of information in recommendation process. We expect that it can give real?time recommendations in exhibition environment. Overall, our methodology shows higher performance ability than traditional Collaborative Filtering systems, we expect it could be applied in booth recommendation system to satisfy visitors in exhibition environment.

Macroeconomic Consequences of Pay-as-you-go Public Pension System (부과방식 공적연금의 거시경제적 영향)

  • Park, Chang-Gyun;Hur, Seok-Kyun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.225-270
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    • 2008
  • We analyze macroeconomic consequences of pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) public pension system with a simple overlapping generations model. Contrary to large body of existing literatures offering quantitative results based on simulation study, we take another route by adopting a highly simplified framework in search of qualitatively tractable analytical results. The main contribution of our results lies in providing a sound theoretical foundation that can be utilized in interpreting various quantitative results offered by simulation studies of large scale general equilibrium models. We present a simple overlapping generations model with a defined benefit(DB) PAYGO public pension system as a benchmark case and derive an analytical equilibrium solution utilizing graphical illustration. We also discuss the modifications of the benchmark model required to encompass a defined contribution(DC) public pension system into the basic framework. Comparative statics analysis provides three important implications; First, introduction and expansion of the PAYGO public pension, DB or DC, result in lower level of capital accumulation and higher expected rate of return on the risky asset. Second, it is shown that the progress of population aging is accompanied by lower capital stock due to decrease in both demand and supply of risky asset. Moreover, risk premium for risky asset increases(decreases) as the speed of population aging accelerates(decelerates) so that the possibility of so-called "the great meltdown" of asset market cannot be excluded although the odds are not high. Third, it is most likely that the switch from DB PAYGO to DC PAYGO would result in lower capital stock and higher expected return on the risky asset mainly due to the fact that the young generation regards DC PAYGO pension as another risky asset competing against the risky asset traded in the market. This theoretical prediction coincides with one of the firmly established propositions in empirical literature that the currently dominant form of public pension system has the tendency to crowd out private capital accumulation.

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A Meta-Analysis of Korean Literatures about Sick Role Behavior of Pulmonary Tuberculosis Patients applied Health Belief Model (건강신념모형을 적용한 폐결핵 환자의 환자역할행태 연구에 대한 메타분석)

  • Kim, Chun-Bae;Jo, Heui-Sug;Rhee, Jung-Ae
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2003
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study is to summarize results from 11 domestic studies about sick role behavior applied health belief model and to assess the effectiveness of components on behavior change by using meta-analysis. Methods: We collected the existing literatures by using major web search of 'pulmonary tuberculosis patients', 'health belief model', and 'sick role behavior' as key words and by reviewing content of journals. Quantitative meta-analysis was performed by SAS program. Results: Among 66 articles, 11 studies were selected for quantitative meta-analysis. The knowledge level about pulmonary tuberculosis had more effect for only sick role behavior as general characterisitcs(d=0.7870). All the components of health belief model produced significant effects on sick role behavior with the magnitude of effect size from 0.31 to 0.73. The largest effects were benefits on actions of sick role behavior. Conclusions: Overall, these investigation provide very substantial empirical evidence supporting health belief model dimensions as important contributors to the explanation and prediction of sick role behavior among the type of health related behavior in pulmonary tuberculosis patients. Strategic intervention including health education, etc. based on health belief model showed clear advantage in improvement of behavioral change.

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Development of a TBM Advance Rate Model and Its Field Application Based on Full-Scale Shield TBM Tunneling Tests in 70 MPa of Artificial Rock Mass (70 MPa급 인공암반 내 실대형 쉴드TBM 굴진실험을 통한 굴진율 모델 및 활용방안 제안)

  • Kim, Jungjoo;Kim, Kyoungyul;Ryu, Heehwan;Hwan, Jung Ju;Hong, Sungyun;Jo, Seonah;Bae, Dusan
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.305-313
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    • 2020
  • The use of cable tunnels for electric power transmission as well as their construction in difficult conditions such as in subsea terrains and large overburden areas has increased. So, in order to efficiently operate the small diameter shield TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine), the estimation of advance rate and development of a design model is necessary. However, due to limited scope of survey and face mapping, it is very difficult to match the rock mass characteristics and TBM operational data in order to achieve their mutual relationships and to develop an advance rate model. Also, the working mechanism of previously utilized linear cutting machine is slightly different than the real excavation mechanism owing to the penetration of a number of disc cutters taking place at the same time in the rock mass in conjunction with rotation of the cutterhead. So, in order to suggest the advance rate and machine design models for small diameter TBMs, an EPB (Earth Pressure Balance) shield TBM having 3.54 m diameter cutterhead was manufactured and 19 cases of full-scale tunneling tests were performed each in 87.5 ㎥ volume of artificial rock mass. The relationships between advance rate and machine data were effectively analyzed by performing the tests in homogeneous rock mass with 70 MPa uniaxial compressive strength according to the TBM operational parameters such as thrust force and RPM of cutterhead. The utilization of the recorded penetration depth and torque values in the development of models is more accurate and realistic since they were derived through real excavation mechanism. The relationships between normal force on single disc cutter and penetration depth as well as between normal force and rolling force were suggested in this study. The prediction of advance rate and design of TBM can be performed in rock mass having 70 MPa strength using these relationships. An effort was made to improve the application of the developed model by applying the FPI (Field Penetration Index) concept which can overcome the limitation of 100% RQD (Rock Quality Designation) in artificial rock mass.

Study on Production Performance of Shale Gas Reservoir using Production Data Analysis (생산자료 분석기법을 이용한 셰일가스정 생산거동 연구)

  • Lee, Sun-Min;Jung, Ji-Hun;Sin, Chang-Hoon;Kwon, Sun-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.58-69
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    • 2013
  • This paper presents production data analysis for two production wells located in the shale gas field, Canada, with the proper analysis method according to each production performance characteristics. In the case A production well, the analysis was performed by applying both time and superposition time because the production history has high variation. Firstly, the flow regimes were classified with a log-log plot, and as a result, only the transient flow was appeared. Then the area of simulated reservoir volume (SRV) analyzed based on flowing material balance plot was calculated to 180 acres of time, and 240 acres of superposition time. And the original gas in place (OGIP) also was estimated to 15, 20 Bscf, respectively. However, as the area of SRV was not analyzed with the boundary dominated flow data, it was regarded as the minimum one. Therefore, the production forecasting was conducted according to variation of b exponent and the area of SRV. As a result, estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) increased 1.2 and 1.4 times respectively depending on b exponent, which was 0.5 and 1. In addition, as the area of SRV increased from 240 to 360 acres, EUR increased 1.3 times. In the case B production well, the formation compressibility and permeability depending on the overburden were applied to the analysis of the overpressured reservoir. In comparison of the case that applied geomechanical factors and the case that did not, the area of SRV was increased 1.4 times, OGIP was increased 1.5 times respectively. As a result of analysis, the prediction of future productivity including OGIP and EUR may be quite different depending on the analysis method. Thus, it was found that proper analysis methods, such as pseudo-time, superposition time, geomechanical factors, need to be applied depending on the production data to gain accurate results.

Prediction of Evapotranspiration from Grape Vines in Suwon with the FAO Penman-Monteith Equation (FAO Penman-Monteith 공식을 이용한 수원지역 포도 수체 증발산량 예측)

  • Yun, Seok-Kyu;Hur, Seung-Oh;Kim, Seung-Heui;Park, Seo-Jun;Kim, Jeong-Bae;Choi, In-Myung
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.111-117
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    • 2009
  • Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith (PM) equation is one of the most widely used equations for predicting evapotranspiration (ET) of crops. The ET rate and the base crop coefficients ($K_{cb}$) of the two different grape vines (i.e., Campbell Early and Kyoho) cultivated in Suwon were calculated by using the FAO PM equation. The ET rate of Campbell Early was $2.41\;mm\;day^{-1}$ and that of Kyoho was $2.22\;mm\;day^{-1}$ in August when the leaf area index was 2.2. During this period, the $K_{cb}$ of Campbell Early based on the FAO PM equation was on average 0.49 with the maximum value of 0.72. On the other hand, the $K_{cb}$ of Kyoho was averaged to be 0.45 with the maximum value of 0.64. The seasonal leaf area index for two grape cultivars was measured as 0.15 in April, 0.5 in May, 1.4 in June, 2.2 in July-September, and 1.5 in October. The $K_{cb}$ of Campbell Early showed a seasonal variation, changing from 0.03 in April to 0.11 in May, 0.31 in June, 0.49 in July-September, and 0.33 in October. The magnitudes and the seasonality of $K_{cb}$ of Kyoho were similar to those of Campbell Early.

An Analysis of IT Trends Using Tweet Data (트윗 데이터를 활용한 IT 트렌드 분석)

  • Yi, Jin Baek;Lee, Choong Kwon;Cha, Kyung Jin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.143-159
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    • 2015
  • Predicting IT trends has been a long and important subject for information systems research. IT trend prediction makes it possible to acknowledge emerging eras of innovation and allocate budgets to prepare against rapidly changing technological trends. Towards the end of each year, various domestic and global organizations predict and announce IT trends for the following year. For example, Gartner Predicts 10 top IT trend during the next year, and these predictions affect IT and industry leaders and organization's basic assumptions about technology and the future of IT, but the accuracy of these reports are difficult to verify. Social media data can be useful tool to verify the accuracy. As social media services have gained in popularity, it is used in a variety of ways, from posting about personal daily life to keeping up to date with news and trends. In the recent years, rates of social media activity in Korea have reached unprecedented levels. Hundreds of millions of users now participate in online social networks and communicate with colleague and friends their opinions and thoughts. In particular, Twitter is currently the major micro blog service, it has an important function named 'tweets' which is to report their current thoughts and actions, comments on news and engage in discussions. For an analysis on IT trends, we chose Tweet data because not only it produces massive unstructured textual data in real time but also it serves as an influential channel for opinion leading on technology. Previous studies found that the tweet data provides useful information and detects the trend of society effectively, these studies also identifies that Twitter can track the issue faster than the other media, newspapers. Therefore, this study investigates how frequently the predicted IT trends for the following year announced by public organizations are mentioned on social network services like Twitter. IT trend predictions for 2013, announced near the end of 2012 from two domestic organizations, the National IT Industry Promotion Agency (NIPA) and the National Information Society Agency (NIA), were used as a basis for this research. The present study analyzes the Twitter data generated from Seoul (Korea) compared with the predictions of the two organizations to analyze the differences. Thus, Twitter data analysis requires various natural language processing techniques, including the removal of stop words, and noun extraction for processing various unrefined forms of unstructured data. To overcome these challenges, we used SAS IRS (Information Retrieval Studio) developed by SAS to capture the trend in real-time processing big stream datasets of Twitter. The system offers a framework for crawling, normalizing, analyzing, indexing and searching tweet data. As a result, we have crawled the entire Twitter sphere in Seoul area and obtained 21,589 tweets in 2013 to review how frequently the IT trend topics announced by the two organizations were mentioned by the people in Seoul. The results shows that most IT trend predicted by NIPA and NIA were all frequently mentioned in Twitter except some topics such as 'new types of security threat', 'green IT', 'next generation semiconductor' since these topics non generalized compound words so they can be mentioned in Twitter with other words. To answer whether the IT trend tweets from Korea is related to the following year's IT trends in real world, we compared Twitter's trending topics with those in Nara Market, Korea's online e-Procurement system which is a nationwide web-based procurement system, dealing with whole procurement process of all public organizations in Korea. The correlation analysis show that Tweet frequencies on IT trending topics predicted by NIPA and NIA are significantly correlated with frequencies on IT topics mentioned in project announcements by Nara market in 2012 and 2013. The main contribution of our research can be found in the following aspects: i) the IT topic predictions announced by NIPA and NIA can provide an effective guideline to IT professionals and researchers in Korea who are looking for verified IT topic trends in the following topic, ii) researchers can use Twitter to get some useful ideas to detect and predict dynamic trends of technological and social issues.

Analysis of the Elderly Travel Characteristics and Travel Behavior with Daily Activity Schedules (the Case of Seoul, Korea) (활동 스케줄 분석을 통한 고령자의 통행특성과 통행행태에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Sang-Eon;Jeong, Jin-Hyeok;Kim, Sun-Gwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.5 s.91
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    • pp.89-108
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    • 2006
  • Korea has been entering the ageing society as the population of age over 65 shared over 7% since the year 2000. The ageing society needs to have transportation facility considering elderly people's travel behavior. This study aims to understand the elderly people's travel behavior using recent data in Korea. The activity schedule approach begins with travel outcomes are part of an activitv scheduling decision. For tho?e approach. used discrete choice models (especially. Nested Logit Model) to address the basic modeling problem capturing decision interaction among the many choice dimensions of the immense activity schedule choice set The day activity schedule is viewed as a sot of tours and at-home activity episodes tied togather with overarching day activity pattern using the Seoul Metropolitan Area Transportation Survey data, which was conducted in June, 2002. Decisions about a specific tour in the schedule are conditioned by the choice of day activity pattern. The day activity scheduling model estimated in this study consists of tours interrelated in a day activity pattern. The day activity pattern model represents the basic decision of activity participation and priorities and places each activity in a configuration of tours and at-home episodes. Each pattern alternative is defined by the primary activity of the day, whether the primary activity occurs at home or away, and the type of tour for the primary activity. In travel mode choice of the elderly and non-workers, especially, travel cost was found to be important in understanding interpersonal variations in mode choice behavior though, travel time was found to be less important factor in choosing travel mode. In addition, although, generally, the elderly was likely to choose transit mode, private mode was preferred for the elderly over 75 years old owing to weakened physical health for such things as going up and down of stairs. Therefore. as entering the ageing society, transit mode should be invested heavily in transportation facility Planning tor improving elderly transportation service. Although the model has not yet been validated in before-and-after prediction studies. this study gives strong evidence of its behavioral soundness, current practicality. and potential for improving reliability of transportation Projects superior to those of the best existing systems in Korea.

Study for Clinical Indicators of Prediction for Histological Finding of IgA Nephropathy (IgA 신병증의 조직소견을 예측할 수 있는 임상지표에 관한 연구)

  • Han Byong-Mu;Cho Jin-Youl;Chuon Ko-Woon;NamGoong Mee-Kyung
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.150-156
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    • 2003
  • Purpose : Efforts to predict the clinicopathological outcome of IgA nephropathy have been made but have yielded conflicting results and have not helped in deciding the appropriate timing of the renal biopsy. In this study, we reviewed the predictive factors of clinicopathological outcome for finding out the criteria of renal biopsy timing of IgA nephropathy. Methods : Forty children diagnosed with biopsy proven IgA nephropathy at Wonju Christian Hospital were studied retrospectively, based on medical records. Results : Among 39 patients, 2 children progressed to higher serum creatinine level. One of them reached to the end stage renal disease within 2 year 7 months. According to WHO histopathological classification, there were 15 cases of class I, 14 cases of class II, 7 cases of class III, and 3 cases of class IV. In the mild histological classes(class I, II), gross hematuria was shown in 23 out of 29 children(P=0.02). In the severe histological classes(class III, IV), gross hematuria was noted in 4 out of 10(P>0.05). The tubulointerstitial changes were grade 1 in 24 cases, grade 2 in 4 cases, grade 3 in 8 cases, and grade 4 in 3 cases. With an increase in the tubulointerstitial grade, the 24 hour urine protein/albumin ratio increased. Serum creatinine less than 0.79 mg/dL could predict the lower grade(grade 1 and 2) of tubulointerstitial changes. But serum creatinine greater than 1.13 mg/dL could predict the higher grade(grade 3 and 4) of tubulointerstitial changes. In children with gross hematuria(n=27), serum creatinine was lower(0.78 vs 1.09 mg/dL, P=0.027), serum IgA was higher(316.3 vs 198.8 mg/dL), and the cases of lower WHO classification(I and II) were more common(23 vs 4, P=0.029) than the children with microscopic hematuria. Conclusion : Serum creatinine less than 0.79 mg/dL, macroscopic hematuria, and higher 24 hour urine protein/albumin ratio would predict the lower grade glomerulo tubulointerstitial lesion in IgA nephropathy and could be used as the criteria delaying the renal biopsy.

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Distribution and Species Prediction of Epilithic Diatom in the Geum River Basin, South Korea (금강권역 주요 하천의 돌 부착돌말류 분포 및 출현예측)

  • Cho, In-Hwan;Kim, Ha-Kyung;Choi, Man-Young;Kwon, Yong-Su;Hwang, Soon-Jin;Kim, Sang-Hoon;Kim, Baik-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.153-167
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    • 2015
  • In order to understand the relationship between the distribution of epilithic diatoms and the habitual environments, land-use, water qualities, and epilithic diatoms were studied at 141 sampling sites in the midwestern stream of Korean peninsula (Geum river, Mangyeong river, Dongjin river, and Sapgyo river). The total 183 diatom taxa was appeared in the study, while the dominant species were found to be Nitzschia palea (10.9%) and Achnanthes convergens (8.4%). Based on the abundance of epilithic diatoms, a cluster analysis results indicate that the sampling sites divided the sampling sites into 4 groups (G) at the 25% level. In term of geographic and aquatic environments, G-I and -II accounted for the upper and mid streams of the Geum river, and had large forest areas and good in water quality. G-III accounted for farmland and urban, and high concentration nutrient levels (TN and TP) and electric conductivity. G-IV accounted for mostly farmland, and high levels in turbidity, BOD, nutrient and electric conductivity. CCA results showed that the saproxenous taxa Meridion circulare was the indicator species of G-I, which strongly influenced by altitude and forests. In G-II, the indifferent taxa Navicula cryptocephala was influenced by Chl-a, AFDM, and DO. In G-III and -IV, the indifferent taxa Fragilaria elliptica and saprophilous taxa Aulacoseira ambigua were influenced by electric conductivity, turbidity, and nutrient counts. Meanwhile, random forest results showed that the predicting factor of indicator species appearance in G-I, -II, and -III was found to be electric conductivity whereas in G-IV it was found to be turbidity. Collectively, the distribution of diatoms in the midwestern of Korean peninsula was found to depend more on the land-use and its subsequent water qualities than the inherent characteristics of the aquatic environment.