• 대기
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.247-261
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• 2018

The objective of this paper is to compare probabilistic temperature forecasts from different regional and global ensemble prediction systems over PyeongChang area. A statistical post-processing method is used to take into account combination and calibration of forecasts from different numerical prediction systems, laying greater weight on ensemble model that exhibits the best performance. Observations for temperature were obtained from the 30 stations in PyeongChang and three different ensemble forecasts derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Ensemble Prediction System for Global and Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System that were obtained between 1 May 2014 and 18 March 2017. Prior to applying to the post-processing methods, reliability analysis was conducted to identify the statistical consistency of ensemble forecasts and corresponding observations. Then, ensemble model output statistics and bias-corrected methods were applied to each raw ensemble model and then proposed weighted combination of ensembles. The results showed that the proposed methods provide improved performances than raw ensemble mean. In particular, multi-model forecast based on ensemble model output statistics was superior to the bias-corrected forecast in terms of deterministic prediction.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.989-995
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• 2017

As is known to all that the output of wind power generation has a character of randomness and volatility because of the influence of natural environment conditions. At present, the research of wind power prediction mainly focuses on point forecasting, which can hardly describe its uncertainty, leading to the fact that its application in practice is low. In this paper, a wind power range prediction model based on the multiple output property of BP neural network is built, and the optimization criterion considering the information of predicted intervals is proposed. Then, improved Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to optimize the model. The simulation results of a practical example show that the proposed wind power range prediction model can effectively forecast the output power interval, and provide power grid dispatcher with decision.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.1040-1048
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• 2013

In this paper, a sensorless pitch angle control method for a wind generation system is suggested. One-step-ahead prediction control law is adopted to control the pitch angle of a wind turbine in order for electric output power to track target values. And it is shown that this control scheme using the inverse dynamics of the controlled system enables us to predict current wind speed without an anemometer, to a considerable precision. The inverse input-output of the controlled system is realized by use of an artificial neural network. The proposed control and wind speed prediction method is applied to a Double-Feed Induction Generation system connected to a simple power system through computer simulation to show its effectiveness. The simulation results demonstrate that the suggested method shows better control performances with less control efforts than a conventional Proportional-Integral controller.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.162-172
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• 2009

A linear-prediction-based blind equalization algorithm for single-input single-output (SISO) finite impulse response/infinite impulse response (FIR/IIR) channels is proposed. The new algorithm is based on second-order statistics, and it does not require channel order estimation. By oversampling the channel output, the SISO channel model is converted to a special single-input multiple-output (SIMO) model. Two forward linear predictors with consecutive prediction delays are applied to the subchannel outputs of the SIMO model. It is demonstrated that the partial parameters of the SIMO model can be estimated from the difference between the prediction errors when the length of the predictors is sufficiently large. The sufficient filter length for achieving the optimal prediction is also derived. Based on the estimated parameters, both batch and adaptive minimum-mean-square-error equalizers are developed. The performance of the proposed equalizers is evaluated by computer simulations and compared with existing algorithms.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제13권5호
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• pp.1874-1885
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• 2018

The customer side operation is getting more complex in a smart grid environment because of the adoption of renewable resources. In performing energy management planning or scheduling, it is essential to forecast non-controllable resources accurately and robustly. The PV system is one of the common renewable energy resources in customer side. Its output depends on weather and physical characteristics of the PV system. Thus, weather information is essential to predict the amount of PV system output. However, weather forecast usually does not include enough solar irradiation information. In this study, a PV system power output prediction model (PPM) under limited weather information is proposed. In the proposed model, meteorological radiation model (MRM) is used to improve cloud cover radiation model (CRM) to consider the seasonal effect of the target region. The results of the proposed model are compared to the result of the conventional CRM prediction method on the PV generation obtained from a field test site. With the PPM, root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) are improved by 23.43% and 33.76%, respectively, compared to CRM for all days; while in clear days, they are improved by 53.36% and 62.90%, respectively.

• 대한전자공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전자공학회 1999년도 하계종합학술대회 논문집
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• pp.1041-1044
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• 1999

In This paper, we investigated the single step prediction for output responses of chaotic system with multi Input multi output using chaotic neural networks. Since the systems with chaotic characteristics are coupled between internal parameters, the chaotic neural networks is very suitable for output response prediction of chaotic system. To evaluate the performance of the proposed neural network predictor, we adopt for Lorenz attractor with chaotic responses and compare the results with recurrent neural networks. The results demonstrated superior performance on convergence and computation time than the predictor using recurrent neural networks. And we could also see good predictive capability of chaotic neural network predictor.

• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.1172-1179
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• 1996

General adaptive noise canceller(ANC) suffers from the misadjustment of adaptive filter weights, because of the gradient-estimate noise at steady state. In this paper, an adaptive noise cancellation algorithm with speech detector which is distinguishing speech from silence and adaptation-transient region is proposed. The speech detector uses property of adaptive prediction-error filter which can filter the highly correlated speech. To detect speech region, estimation error which is the output of the adaptive filter is applied to the adaptive prediction-error filter. When speech signal apears at the input of the adaptive prediction-error filter. The ratio of input and output energy of adaptive prediction-error filter becomes relatively lower. The ratio becomes large when the white noise appears at the input. So the region of speech is detected by the ratio. Sign algorithm is applied at speech region to prevent the weights from perturbing by output speech of ANC. As results of computer simulation, the proposed algorithm improves segmental SNR and SNR up to about 4 dBand 11 dB, respectively.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제5권10호
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• pp.1770-1782
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• 2011

A brain-computer interface (BCI) is a communication system that translates brain activity into commands for computers or other devices. In other words, BCIs create a new communication channel between the brain and an output device by bypassing conventional motor output pathways consisting of nerves and muscles. This is particularly useful for facilitating communication for people suffering from paralysis. Due to the low bit rate, it takes much more time to translate brain activity into commands. Especially it takes much time to input characters by using BCI-based typewriters. In this paper, we propose a brain-operated typewriter which is accelerated by a language prediction model. The proposed system uses three kinds of strategies to improve the entry speed: word completion, next-syllable prediction, and next word prediction. We found that the entry speed of BCI-based typewriter improved about twice as much through our demonstration which utilized the language prediction model.

• 물과 미래
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.81-90
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• 1995

본 연구에서는 장기간의 수문기상자료를 보유하고 있으나 유출량자료의 관측년한이 짧은 유역에서 장기간의 월유출량자료를 확장하고 예측할 수 있는 추계학적 시스템 모형을 개발하고자 한다. 그 방법으로 주기성과 경향성을 갖는 월유출량, 월강수량 및 윌증발량자료를 시계열 분석하여 seasonal ARIMA 형태의 단변량 모형을 유도하는 한편, 각 계열간의 교차상관분석으로부터 월강수량 및 윌증발량을 입력변수로 하고 월유출량을 출력변수로 하는 다중 입력-단일 출력관계의 설명모형을 유도하여 단변량 시계열모형과 비교 검토하였다. 본 연구의 결과 월유출량자료의 확장과 예측에 있어서 다중 입출력모형의 정확성과 적용가능성이 매우 높은 것으로 판단되었다.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제65권5호
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• pp.851-856
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• 2016

Wind speed is heavily fluctuated and quite local than other weather elements. It is difficult to improve the accuracy of prediction only in a numerical prediction model. An MOS (Model Output Statistics) technique is used to correct the systematic errors of the model using a statistical data analysis. The Most of previous MOS has used a linear regression model for weather prediction, but it is hard to manage an irregular nature of prediction of wind speed. In order to solve the problem, a nonlinear regression method using SVR (Support Vector Regression) is introduced for a development of MOS for wind speed prediction. Experiments are performed for KLAPS (Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) re-analysis data from 2007 to 2013 year for Jeju Island and Busan area in South Korea. The MLR and SVR based linear and nonlinear methods are compared to each other for prediction accuracy of wind speed. Also, the comparison experiments are executed for the variation in the number of UM elements.