• Atmosphere
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.235-249
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• 2017

This paper describes methodology verifying near-surface predictability of numerical weather prediction models against the surface synoptic weather station network (SYNOP) observation. As verification variables, temperature, wind, humidity-related variables, total cloud cover, and surface pressure are included in this tool. Quality controlled SYNOP observation through the pre-processing for data assimilation is used. To consider the difference of topographic height between observation and model grid points, vertical inter/extrapolation is applied for temperature, humidity, and surface pressure verification. This verification algorithm is applied for verifying medium-range forecasts by a global forecasting model developed by Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems to measure the near-surface predictability of the model and to evaluate the capability of the developed verification tool. It is found that the verification of near-surface prediction against SYNOP observation shows consistency with verification of upper atmosphere against global radiosonde observation, suggesting reliability of those data and demonstrating importance of verification against in-situ measurement as well. Although verifying modeled total cloud cover with observation might have limitation due to the different definition between the model and observation, it is also capable to diagnose the relative bias of model predictability such as a regional reliability and diurnal evolution of the bias.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2022.06a
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• pp.119-127
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• 2022

Most of the construction works are conducted outdoors, so the construction workers are affected by weather conditions such as temperature, humidity, and wind velocity which can be evaluated the thermal comfort as environmental factors. In our previous researches, it was found that construction accidents are usually occurred in the discomfort ranges. The safety management, therefore, should be planned in consideration of the thermal comfort and measured by a specialized simulation tool. However, it is very complex, time-consuming, and difficult to model. To address this issue, this study is aimed to develop a framework of a prediction model for improving the prediction accuracy about outdoor thermal comfort considering environmental factors using machine learning algorithms with hyperparameter tuning. This study is done in four steps: i) Establishment of database, ii) Selection of variables to develop prediction model, iii) Development of prediction model; iv) Conducting of hyperparameter tuning. The tree type algorithm is used to develop the prediction model. The results of this study are as follows. First, considering three variables related to environmental factor, the prediction accuracy was 85.74%. Second, the prediction accuracy was 86.55% when considering four environmental factors. Third, after conducting hyperparameter tuning, the prediction accuracy was increased up to 87.28%. This study has several contributions. First, using this prediction model, the thermal comfort can be calculated easily and quickly. Second, using this prediction model, the safety management can be utilized to manage the construction accident considering weather conditions.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.217-223
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• 2019

A study in predicting defects of spot welding in real time in automotive field is essential for cost reduction and high quality production. Welding quality is determined by shear strength and the size of the nugget, and results depend on different independent variables. In order to develop the real-time prediction system, multiple regression analyses were conducted and the two dependent variables were obtained with sufficient statistical results with three independent variables, however, the quality prediction by the regression formula could not ensure accuracy. In this study, a multi-layer neural network circuit was constructed. The neural network by 10 dynamic resistance variables was constructed with three hidden layers to obtain execution functions and weighting matrix. In this case, the neural network was established with three independent variables based on regression analysis, as there could be difficulties in real-time control due to too many input variables. As a result, all test data were divided into poor, partial, and modalities. Therefore, a real-time welding quality determination system by three independent variables obtained by multiple regression analysis was completed.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.8
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• pp.399-407
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• 2021

Stock movement is difficult to predict because it has dynamic characteristics and is influenced by many factors. Even so, there are some approaches to predict stock price movements, namely technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and sentiment analysis. Many researches have tried to predict stock price movement by utilizing these analysis techniques. However, the results obtained are varied and inconsistent depending on the variables and object used. This is because stock price movement is influenced by a variety of factors, and it is likely that those studies did not cover all of them. One of which is that no research considers the use of fundamental analysis in terms of currency exchange rates and the use of foreign stock price index movement related to the technical analysis. This research aims to predict stock price movements in Indonesia based on sentiment analysis, technical analysis, and fundamental analysis using Support Vector Machine. The result obtained has a prediction accuracy rate of 65,33% on an average. The inclusion of currency exchange rate and foreign stock price index movement as a predictor in this research which can increase average prediction accuracy rate by 11.78% compared to the prediction without using these two variables which only results in average prediction accuracy rate of 53.55%.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.20-29
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• 2022

This study intends to present a traffic node-based and link-based accident prediction models using XGBoost which is very excellent in performance among machine learning models, and to develop those models with sustainability and scalability. Also, we intend to present those models which predict the number of annual traffic accidents based on road types, weather conditions, and traffic information using XGBoost. To this end, data sets were constructed by collecting and preprocessing traffic accident information, road information, weather information, and traffic information. The SHAP method was used to identify the variables affecting the number of traffic accidents. The five main variables of the traffic node-based accident prediction model were snow cover, precipitation, the number of entering lanes and connected links, and slow speed. Otherwise, those of the traffic link-based accident prediction model were snow cover, precipitation, the number of lanes, road length, and slow speed. As the evaluation results of those models, the RMSE values of those models were each 0.2035 and 0.2107. In this study, only data from Sejong City were used to our models, but ours can be applied to all regions where traffic nodes and links are constructed. Therefore, our prediction models can be extended to a wider range.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.399-412
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• 2019

In this investigation, Elman neural networks were utilized for predicting the mechanical properties of Self-Compacting Concretes (SCCs). Elman models were designed by using experimental data of many different concrete mixdesigns of various types of SCC that were collected from the literature. In order to investigate the effectiveness of the selected input variables on the network performance in predicting intended properties, utilized data in artificial neural networks were considered in two sets of 8 and 140 input variables. The obtained outcomes showed that not only can the developed Elman ANNs predict the mechanical properties of SCCs with high accuracy, but also for all of the desired outputs, networks with 140 inputs, compared to ones with 8, have a remarkable percent improvement in the obtained prediction results. The prediction accuracy can significantly be improved by using a more complete and accurate set of key factors affecting the desired outputs, as input variables, in the networks, which is leading to more similarity of the predicted results gained from networks to experimental results.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.64-73
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• 2004

A fatigue damage accumulation model based on the continuum damage mechanics theory was developed where modulus decay ratios in tension and shear were used as indicators for damage variables D. In the model, the damage variables are considered to be second-order tensors. Then, the maximum principal damage variable, $D^*$ is introduced. According to the similarity to the principal stress, $D^*$ is obtained as the maximum eigen value of damage tensor [D]. Under proportional tension and torsion loadings, fatigue lives were satisfactorily predicted at any combined stress ratios using the present model in which the Fatigue characteristics only under uniaxial tension and pure torsion loadings were needed. Fatigue life prediction under uniaxial tension and pure torsion loadings, was performed based on the damage mechanics using boundary element method.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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• v.10 no.6
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• pp.594-600
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• 2017

The new design methodology of prediction model and pattern classification, which is based on the dimension reduction algorithm called principal component analysis, is introduced in this paper. Principal component analysis is one of dimension reduction techniques which are used to reduce the dimension of the input space and extract some good features from the original input variables. The extracted input variables are applied to the prediction model and pattern classifier as the input variables. The introduced prediction model and pattern classifier are based on the very simple regression which is the key point of the paper. The structural simplicity of the prediction model and pattern classifier leads to reducing the over-fitting problem. In order to validate the proposed prediction model and pattern classifier, several machine learning data sets are used.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.237-247
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• 2022

This study predicts the economic activity level of the elderly in Korea using various machine learning methods. While the previous studies mainly focused on testing the relationship between the economic activity level and the life satisfaction or the social security system, this study aims at the accurate prediction on the economic activity level of the elderly using various machine learning methods and the forecast combination. Dependent variables such as the activity rate, employment rate, etc and independent variables such as the income, average wage, etc compose the dataset in this study. Five different machine learning methods and two forecast combinations are applied to the given dataset. The prediction performances of the machine learning method and the forecast combination varied across the dependent variables and prediction intervals, but it was found that the forecast combination was relatively superior to other methods in terms of the stability of prediction. This study has significance in that it accurately predicted the economic activity level of the elderly and achieved the stability of the prediction, raising practicality from a policy perspective.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• v.22 no.7
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• pp.1213-1224
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• 2021

Objective: To develop a machine learning (ML) pipeline based on radiomics to predict Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity and the future deterioration to critical illness using CT and clinical variables. Materials and Methods: Clinical data were collected from 981 patients from a multi-institutional international cohort with real-time polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19. Radiomics features were extracted from chest CT of the patients. The data of the cohort were randomly divided into training, validation, and test sets using a 7:1:2 ratio. A ML pipeline consisting of a model to predict severity and time-to-event model to predict progression to critical illness were trained on radiomics features and clinical variables. The receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC), concordance index (C-index), and time-dependent ROC-AUC were calculated to determine model performance, which was compared with consensus CT severity scores obtained by visual interpretation by radiologists. Results: Among 981 patients with confirmed COVID-19, 274 patients developed critical illness. Radiomics features and clinical variables resulted in the best performance for the prediction of disease severity with a highest test ROC-AUC of 0.76 compared with 0.70 (0.76 vs. 0.70, p = 0.023) for visual CT severity score and clinical variables. The progression prediction model achieved a test C-index of 0.868 when it was based on the combination of CT radiomics and clinical variables compared with 0.767 when based on CT radiomics features alone (p < 0.001), 0.847 when based on clinical variables alone (p = 0.110), and 0.860 when based on the combination of visual CT severity scores and clinical variables (p = 0.549). Furthermore, the model based on the combination of CT radiomics and clinical variables achieved time-dependent ROC-AUCs of 0.897, 0.933, and 0.927 for the prediction of progression risks at 3, 5 and 7 days, respectively. Conclusion: CT radiomics features combined with clinical variables were predictive of COVID-19 severity and progression to critical illness with fairly high accuracy.