• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction of variables

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Risk-Scoring System for Prediction of Non-Curative Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection Requiring Additional Gastrectomy in Patients with Early Gastric Cancer

  • Kim, Tae-Se;Min, Byung-Hoon;Kim, Kyoung-Mee;Yoo, Heejin;Kim, Kyunga;Min, Yang Won;Lee, Hyuk;Rhee, Poong-Lyul;Kim, Jae J.;Lee, Jun Haeng
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.368-378
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: When patients with early gastric cancer (EGC) undergo non-curative endoscopic submucosal dissection requiring gastrectomy (NC-ESD-RG), additional medical resources and expenses are required for surgery. To reduce this burden, predictive model for NC-ESD-RG is required. Materials and Methods: Data from 2,997 patients undergoing ESD for 3,127 forceps biopsy-proven differentiated-type EGCs (2,345 and 782 in training and validation sets, respectively) were reviewed. Using the training set, the logistic stepwise regression analysis determined the independent predictors of NC-ESD-RG (NC-ESD other than cases with lateral resection margin involvement or piecemeal resection as the only non-curative factor). Using these predictors, a risk-scoring system for predicting NC-ESD-RG was developed. Performance of the predictive model was examined internally with the validation set. Results: Rate of NC-ESD-RG was 17.3%. Independent pre-ESD predictors for NC-ESD-RG included moderately differentiated or papillary EGC, large tumor size, proximal tumor location, lesion at greater curvature, elevated or depressed morphology, and presence of ulcers. A risk-score was assigned to each predictor of NC-ESD-RG. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting NC-ESD-RG was 0.672 in both training and validation sets. A risk-score of 5 points was the optimal cut-off value for predicting NC-ESD-RG, and the overall accuracy was 72.7%. As the total risk score increased, the predicted risk for NC-ESD-RG increased from 3.8% to 72.6%. Conclusions: We developed and validated a risk-scoring system for predicting NC-ESD-RG based on pre-ESD variables. Our risk-scoring system can facilitate informed consent and decision-making for preoperative treatment selection between ESD and surgery in patients with EGC.

R&D Activities, Imperfect Competition and Economic Growth (R&D 및 불완전경쟁과 경제성장)

  • Kim, Byung-Woo
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.47-72
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    • 2007
  • Ideas do not become exhausted, and there are no diminishing returns in the creation of knowledge. Nonetheless, growth ultimately ceases in this simplest model of endogeneous innovation. The reasons are similar to those that are discussed in the context of the neoclassical model of capital accumulation. Even if the resource cost of creating new goods does not rise, the economic return to invention may decline as the number of available products increases. When the rate of return to R&D falls to the level of the discount rate, private agents cease to be willing to defer consumption in order to invest in product development. But, if we treat knowledge capital as a public capital considering of its non-appropriable benefits, economic growth can be sustained in the economy. Romer(1986) has pointed out that growth might be sustainable if the accumulation of knowledge is not subject to long-run diminishing returns. Actually Romer assumed diminishing returns in the production of private knowledge from available resources, but increasing returns in the production of output from labor and total (public and private) knowledge. His condition for the sustainability of long-run growth amounts to an assumption that the diminishing returns in the former activity do not outweigh the increasing returns in the latter. The Johansen(1988) cointegration test method is used for finding long-run equilibrium relationship between R&D input and the product innovation. Test results indicate the existence of cointegrating equation between each pair of regression variables including dependent variable in the knowledge production function. And, the signs of cointegrating vectors are well accord to the prediction of sustainable growth. In the empirical analysis, from all cases of the form for the knowledge production function, we could not reject the null hypothesis that R&D spillover effect is significant($H_{0}:\;{\gamma}=1$). In summary, we showed that considering goodness of fit of regression model, we can see that the empirical evidence is strongly in favor of the character of knowledge as the public knowledge capital. So, we can expect that by product innovation, economic growth can be sustained in the Korean economy.

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Nomogram to predict the number of oocytes retrieved in controlled ovarian stimulation

  • Moon, Kyoung Yong;Kim, Hoon;Lee, Joong Yeup;Lee, Jung Ryeol;Jee, Byung Chul;Suh, Chang Suk;Kim, Ki Chul;Lee, Won Don;Lim, Jin Ho;Kim, Seok Hyun
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.112-118
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    • 2016
  • Objective: Ovarian reserve tests are commonly used to predict ovarian response in infertile patients undergoing ovarian stimulation. Although serum markers such as basal follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) or random $anti-M{\ddot{u}}llerian$ hormone (AMH) level and ultrasonographic markers (antral follicle count, AFC) are good predictors, no single test has proven to be the best predictor. In this study, we developed appropriate equations and novel nomograms to predict the number of oocytes that will be retrieved using patients' age, serum levels of basal FSH and AMH, and AFC. Methods: We analyzed a database containing clinical and laboratory information of 141 stimulated in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles performed at a university-based hospital between September 2009 and December 2013. We used generalized linear models for prediction of the number of oocytes. Results: Age, basal serum FSH level, serum AMH level, and AFC were significantly related to the number of oocytes retrieved according to the univariate and multivariate analyses. The equations that predicted the number of oocytes retrieved (log scale) were as follows: model (1) $3.21-0.036{\times}(age)+0.089{\times}(AMH)$, model (2) $3.422-0.03{\times}(age)-0.049{\times}(FSH)+0.08{\times}(AMH)$, model (3) $2.32-0.017{\times}(age)+0.039{\times}(AMH)+0.03{\times}(AFC)$, model (4) $2.584-0.015{\times}(age)-0.035{\times}(FSH)+0.038{\times}(AMH)+0.026{\times}(AFC)$. model 4 showed the best performance. On the basis of these variables, we developed nomograms to predict the number of oocytes that can be retrieved. Conclusion: Our nomograms helped predict the number of oocytes retrieved in stimulated IVF cycles.

Optimization of KOH pretreatment conditions from Miscanthus using high temperature and extrusion system (고온 압출식 반응시스템을 이용한 억새 바이오매스의 KOH 전처리조건 최적화)

  • Cha, Young-Lok;Park, Sung-Min;Moon, Youn-Ho;Kim, Kwang-Soo;Lee, Ji-Eun;Kwon, Da-Eun;Kang, Yong-Gu
    • Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.1243-1252
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the optimum conditions of biomass pretreatment with potassium hydroxide (KOH) for efficient utilization of cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin from Miscanthus. The optimization of variables was performed by response surface methodology (RSM). The variation ranges of the parameters for the RSM were potassium hydroxide 0.2~0.8 M, reaction temperature 110~190℃ and reaction time 10~90 min. The optimum conditions of alkali pretreatment from Miscanthus were determined as follows: concentration of KOH 0.47 M, reaction temperature 134℃ and reaction time 65 min. At the optimum conditions, the yield of cellulose from the solid fraction after pretreatment was predicted to be 95% by model prediction. Finally, 66.1 ± 1.1% of cellulose were obtained by verification experiment under the optimum conditions. The order contents of solid extraction were hemicellulose 26.4 ± 0.4%, lignin 3.7 ± 0.1% and ash 0.5 ± 0.04%. The yield of ethanol concentration of 96% was obtained using separated saccharification and fermentation.

Uniformity Evaluation of Elderly Hospital Outpatients' Waiting Space using Discrete Event Simulation (이산사건 시뮬레이션을 이용한 요양병원 외래부 대기공간 균일성 평가)

  • Yoon, So-Hee;Kim, Suk-Tae
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.7
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    • pp.490-499
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    • 2017
  • In recent years, the introduction of complex systems analysis based on various variables has become more active in order to identify and analyze complex problems of Modern Society. Prediction of patients' spatial perception and usability according to the spatial arrangement of the outpatient department is a very important factor for providing high quality hospital service. For objective analysis, the standard program procedure and analysis index for the diseases of the elderly were prepared and the uniformity of the atmospheric space was evaluated through heat map analysis and quantitative analysis. In this study, 73 cells were installed and simulated to analyze the uniformity of the four alternatives according to the change of the arrangement of the medical care space, receiving space, and consultation space using the complex system analysis method for the nursing hospitals. The resulting density was derived. The results are as follows. 1)The layout of the reception space has the greatest influence on the total spatial density of the waiting space. 2) The uniformity of the waiting space can be increased by separating the examination space and the examination space. 3)The closer the location of the receiving space is from the entrance, the greater the density of the waiting space. Finally, this study applied discrete event simulation to the evaluation of uniformity of atmosphere space, and proved that the actor - based model can be utilized for utilization and evaluation as spatial analysis methodology.

A Study on the Usefulness of Accounting Information for the Predication of Medium and Small Enterprises' Bankruptcy (중소기업 도산예측에 회계정보 유용성에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.1460-1466
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to verify how the accounting information of a bankrupt firm which is defined as a dishonor, an impaired total capital, a poor financial performance of a business, a rejection of auditor's opinion and an incongruity of auditor's opinion differs from that of a healthy firm on the basis of the index of financial affairs if the accounting information released by KOSDAQ is valuable. The sampling firms consists of 45 KOSDAQ firms that went bankrupt from 2000 to 2007 and 45 healthy firms which are selected in accordance with the sizes of assets. It has also selected the 30 sampling firms for the confirmation of the model in the same way. According to the result of the in-depth analysis, the variables related to security among the 17 indexes of financial affairs that have been used in this study for 5 years show a noticeable difference between a bankrupt firm and a healthy one. The accuracy of failed firms using this model for confirmation demonstrates 76.7% in 5 years before the bankruptcy, 76.7% in 4 years before that, 65.0% in 3 years before it, 76.7% in 2 years, 88.3% in 1 year. This data shows that the process from a healthy firm to a bankrupt one has progressed gradually and confirms the value of the index of financial affairs, exhibiting the accuracy with 83.8% of a presuming sample and 76.7% of a confirming sample for 5 years.

Habitat Prediction and Impact Assessment of Eurya japonica Thunb. under Climate Change in Korea (기후변화에 따른 한반도 사스레피나무의 생육지 예측과 영향 평가)

  • Yun, Jong-Hak;Park, Jeong Soo;Choi, Jong-Yun;Nakao, Katsuhiro
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.291-302
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    • 2017
  • The research was carried out in order to find climate factors which determine the distribution of Eurya japonica, and the potential habitats (PHs) under the current climate and climate change scenario by using species distribution models (SDMs). Four climate factors; the warmth index (WI), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC), summer precipitation (PRS), and winter precipitaion (PRW) : were used as independent variables for the model. Seventeen general circulation models under RCP (Representative concentration pathway) 8.5 scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the 2050s (2040~2069) and 2080s (2070~2099). Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for E. japonica. The model of distribution for E. japonica constructed by SDMs showed that minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC) is a major climate factor in determining the distribution of E. japonica. The area above the $-5.7^{\circ}C$ of TMC revealed high occurrence probability of the E. japonica. Future PHs for E. japonica were projected to increase respectively by 2.5 times, 3.4 times of current PHs under 2050s and 2080s. It is expected that the potential of E. japonica habitats is expanded gradually. E. japonica is applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula. E. japonica is necessary to be monitored of potential habitats.

Prediction of Potential Habitat of Japanese evergreen oak (Quercus acuta Thunb.) Considering Dispersal Ability Under Climate Change (분산 능력을 고려한 기후변화에 따른 붉가시나무의 잠재서식지 분포변화 예측연구)

  • Shin, Man-Seok;Seo, Changwan;Park, Seon-Uk;Hong, Seung-Bum;Kim, Jin-Yong;Jeon, Ja-Young;Lee, Myungwoo
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.291-306
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    • 2018
  • This study was designed to predict potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak (Quercus acuta Thunb.) in Korean Peninsula considering its dispersal ability under climate change. We used a species distribution model (SDM) based on the current species distribution and climatic variables. To reduce the uncertainty of the SDM, we applied nine single-model algorithms and the pre-evaluation weighted ensemble method. Two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were used to simulate the distribution of Japanese evergreen oak in 2050 and 2070. The final future potential habitat was determined by considering whether it will be dispersed from the current habitat. The dispersal ability was determined using the Migclim by applying three coefficient values (${\theta}=-0.005$, ${\theta}=-0.001$ and ${\theta}=-0.0005$) to the dispersal-limited function and unlimited case. All the projections revealed potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak will be increased in Korean Peninsula except the RCP 4.5 in 2050. However, the future potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak was found to be limited considering the dispersal ability of this species. Therefore, estimation of dispersal ability is required to understand the effect of climate change and habitat distribution of the species.

Relationships between subjective teeth awareness and satisfaction on self-esteem (주관적인 치아에 대한 인식 및 만족도와 자아존중감과의 관련성)

  • Jung, Eun-Seo;Lee, Kyeong-Hee
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.315-324
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of the study are expected to provide some basic information on counseling, diagnosis and treatment planning for patients related to teeth care. A self-reported questionnaire was filled out by 320 subjects in Seoul and Gyeonggi from May to August, 2015 after permission from Institutional Review Board (IRB). Except 18 copies, 302 data were analyzed using SPSS WIN 19.0 program. The questionnaire consisted of four questions of the general characteristics of the subjects, ten questions of the awareness toward of subjective teeth, five questions of the influence of teeth on appearance, and ten questions of self-esteem. The dependent variables made a 23.4% prediction of self-esteem. If they have higher education(p<0.001), influence of teeth on appearance(p<0.001) and the awareness toward of subjective teeth(p<0.001) had significant influence on self-esteem. The findings suggest that heightened subjective awareness toward teeth seems to be of use for the improvement of self-esteem. Therefore it's required to make an effort to take good care of teeth in terms of color or arrangement as well as oral health.

Prediction Model for Health Related to Quality of Life of Married Immigrant Women in Multicultural Families (다문화가정 결혼이주여성의 건강관련 삶의 질 예측모형)

  • Park, Hyun-Ok;Park, Kyung-Sook;Kwon, Oh-Yun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.357-369
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    • 2018
  • This study is to determine health related to Quality of Life(QOL) of married immigrant women in multicultural families, factors of predictors, and influence of these factors to develop and verify the structural model for development of an effective nursing mediation strategy for improved QOL. The participants were 254 women who immigrated to Korea for marriage. The hypothetical model is based on the health improvement model by Pender. Immigrant women's perceived barriers, perceived benefits, self-esteem, and perceived health had an impact on their health promotion behavior(HPB). These variables explained 55.2% of the QOL regarding health, and perceived health conditions, self-efficacy, self-worth, and level of cultural adaptation explained 29.3% of acts towards improving health. The results of this study suggest that development of efficient policy considering factors affecting health related to QOL of married immigrant women in multicultural families.