• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction of Failure time

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Development of Flow Loop System to Evaluate the Performance of ESP in Unconventional Oil and Gas Wells (비전통 유·가스정에서 ESP 성능 평가를 위한 Flow Loop 시스템 개발)

  • Sung-Jea Lee;Jun-Ho Choi;Jeong-Hwan Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.7-15
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    • 2023
  • The electric submersible pump (ESP) has been operating in production wells around the world because of its high applicability and operational efficiency among artificial lift techniques. When operating an ESP in a reservoir, variables such as temperature, pressure, gas/oil ratio, and flow rate are factors that affect ESP performance. In particular, free gas in the production fluid is a major factor that reduces the life and operational efficiency of ESP. This study presents the flow loop system which can implement the performance and damage tests of ESP considering field operating conditions to quantitatively analyze the variables that affect ESP performance. The developed apparatus in an integrated system that can diagnose the failure and causes of ESP, and detect leak of tubing by linking ESP and tubing as one system. In this study, the flow conditions for stable operation of ESP were identified through single phase and two phase flow experiments related to evaluation for the performance of ESP. The results provide the basic data to develop the failure prediction and diagnosis program of ESP, and are expected to be used for real-time monitoring for optimal operating conditions and failure diagnosis for ESP operation.

A Study on the Estimation for the Compressive Strength of Member According to the Knot Types (옹이 형태별 소재의 압축강도 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Gwang-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.170-177
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    • 2010
  • Finite element numerical analysis was conducted with using the knot data which has a strong influence on the prediction of capacity for the structural wood member. Wood is a orthotropic property unlike other structural materials, so orthotropic property was applied. Knot was modelled as a cylinder shape, cone shape, and cubic shape. Compressive test was carried out to investigate the failure types and to calculate ultimate strengths for the wood members. Numerical model which can reflect the member size, number of knot, location of knot, size of knot was created and analyzed. By the numerical analysis using the ultimate compressive strength, numerical stress distribution types of each specimen was compared to real failure types for the test specimen. Cylinder shape modelling might be most reasonable, according to the necessary time for the analysis, the difficulty of element meshing, and the similarity of stress transfer around knot. Moreover, according to the stress and deformation distribution for the numerical analysis, failures or cracks of real specimen were developed in the vicinity of stress concentrated section and most transformed section. Based on the those results, numerical analysis could be utilized as a useful method to analyze the performance of bending member and tensile member, if only orthotropic property and knot modelling were properly applied.

The Value of Ultrasonographic Endometrial Measurement in the Prediction of Pregnancy Outcome in In Vitro Fertilization (체외수정시술 주기에서 자궁내막발달과 착상에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Haeng
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.117-123
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    • 1993
  • The condition of the endometrium is an important factor which may influence the success or failure in IVF-ET. This study was undertaken for evaluation of the value of endometrial growth as an early predictor for the success of IVF. Ultrasonographic endometrial measurement were performed in 43 IVF cycles that conceived, 101 cycles that did not with an IVF-ET There was no significant difference in the endometrial thickness and the serum concentration of estradiol in the pregnant versus nonpregnant group(10.4 vs. 9.9 mm: 2348 vs. 2017 pg/ml no hCG administration day). No correlation was found between the ultrasound image and serum estradiol levels around the time of hCG administration(r=0.54, p=0.13 no Day 2; r=0.45, p=0.14 no Day 1). The duration of gonadotropin treatment, number of follicles, number of oocytes retrieved, and fertilization rate were not statistically different in the two groups, however, there was a significant difference in the number of embryos in the pregnant versus nonpregnant group)p< 0.05). A higher pregnancy rate and ongoing pregnancy rate occured with an endometrial thickness over 11 mm compared with below 7mm(p< 0.05, p< 0.005). however, no significant differences were noted in the implantation rate and abortion rate among the groups that classified according to their endmetrial thickness. The endometrial growth(${\Delta}$) from hCG administration day(DO) to D6 was greater in the women who achieved pregnancy than in the nonpregnant group(p< 0.01). There were no significant differences in serum estradiol levels, implantation rate, pregnancy rate, and abortion rate among the groups that classified according to the pattern of echogenesity of endometrium, however, significantly higher ongoing pregnancy rate was noted in group A, B compared with group C.(p< 0.0001, p< 0.001) These results suggest that there were no ultrasonographically detectable differences in the patterns of endometrial growth and development around the time of hCG administration in patients who conceive versus those that do not in IVF-ET.

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Prediction of field failure rate using data mining in the Automotive semiconductor (데이터 마이닝 기법을 이용한 차량용 반도체의 불량률 예측 연구)

  • Yun, Gyungsik;Jung, Hee-Won;Park, Seungbum
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.37-68
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    • 2018
  • Since the 20th century, automobiles, which are the most common means of transportation, have been evolving as the use of electronic control devices and automotive semiconductors increases dramatically. Automotive semiconductors are a key component in automotive electronic control devices and are used to provide stability, efficiency of fuel use, and stability of operation to consumers. For example, automotive semiconductors include engines control, technologies for managing electric motors, transmission control units, hybrid vehicle control, start/stop systems, electronic motor control, automotive radar and LIDAR, smart head lamps, head-up displays, lane keeping systems. As such, semiconductors are being applied to almost all electronic control devices that make up an automobile, and they are creating more effects than simply combining mechanical devices. Since automotive semiconductors have a high data rate basically, a microprocessor unit is being used instead of a micro control unit. For example, semiconductors based on ARM processors are being used in telematics, audio/video multi-medias and navigation. Automotive semiconductors require characteristics such as high reliability, durability and long-term supply, considering the period of use of the automobile for more than 10 years. The reliability of automotive semiconductors is directly linked to the safety of automobiles. The semiconductor industry uses JEDEC and AEC standards to evaluate the reliability of automotive semiconductors. In addition, the life expectancy of the product is estimated at the early stage of development and at the early stage of mass production by using the reliability test method and results that are presented as standard in the automobile industry. However, there are limitations in predicting the failure rate caused by various parameters such as customer's various conditions of use and usage time. To overcome these limitations, much research has been done in academia and industry. Among them, researches using data mining techniques have been carried out in many semiconductor fields, but application and research on automotive semiconductors have not yet been studied. In this regard, this study investigates the relationship between data generated during semiconductor assembly and package test process by using data mining technique, and uses data mining technique suitable for predicting potential failure rate using customer bad data.

Prediction Model of Endurance Time to Isotonic Contraction Exercise for Biceps Brachii using Multiple Regression Analysis with Personal Factors and Anthropometric Data (신체측정치수를 적용하여 다중회귀 분석을 통한 위팔두갈래근 등장성 운동의 근지구력시간 예측모델 연구)

  • Jeong, Ju-Young;Lee, Sang-Sik
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.178-186
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    • 2015
  • Endurance time is very important indicator to estimate muscle fatigue. In the case of measuring endurance time directly, it is dangerous for subject to perform a test until the point of failure to main time force. Therefore, this paper presents the model to estimate endirance time using indirect measurements such as personal factors and anthropometrical data. Previous studies had shown that personal factors such as gender and age were not related to endurance time, but recently studies have shown that it is estimated by using independent variable or predictor such as GTA (Gravitational Torque of the horizontal, stretched arm) and MVC (Maximum Voluntary Contraction). The present study investigated variables to estimate endurance time using personal factors and anthrometrical data during isotonic contractions. Twenty five healthy subject volunteered for this study, and performed three test sessions of isotonic contraction exercises at 10~50% respectively. Afterward the correlation coefficient and p-values were compared among regression models using personal factors and anthropometrical data. The results demonstrated that multi-regression model had significant coefficient of correlation, and was useful estimate endurance time.

Analysis of Relative Settlement Behavior of Retaining Wall Backside Ground Using Clustering (군집분류를 이용한 흙막이 벽체 배면 지반의 상대적 침하거동 분석)

  • Young-Jun Kwack;Heui-Soo Han
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.189-200
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    • 2023
  • As urbanization and industrialization increase development in downtown areas, damage due to ground settlement continues to occur. Building collapse in urban has a high risk of leading to large-scale damage to life and property. However, there has rarely been studied on measurement data analysis methods when uneven loads are applied to the excavated ground and no prior knowledge of the ground. Accordingly, it was attempted to analyze the relative settlement behavior and correlation by processing the time-series surface settlement of construction sites in the urban. In this paper, the average index of difference in settlement and average of relative difference in settlement are defined and calculated, then plotted in the coordinate system to analyze the relative settlement behavior over time. In addition, since there was no prior knowledge of the ground, a standard to classify the clusters was needed, and the observation points were classified into using k-means clustering and Dunn Index. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that all the clusters moved to the stable region as the settlement amount converges. The clusters were segmented. Based on the analysis results, it was possible to distinguish between the independent displacement area and same behavior area by analyzing the correlation between measurement points. If possible to analyze the relative settlement behavior between the stations and classify the behavior areas, it can be helpful in settlement and stability management, such as uplift of the surrounding area, prediction of ground failure area, and prevention of activity failure.

Implementation of Responsive Web-based Vessel Auxiliary Equipment and Pipe Condition Diagnosis Monitoring System (반응형 웹 기반 선박 보조기기 및 배관 상태 진단 모니터링 시스템 구현)

  • Sun-Ho, Park;Woo-Geun, Choi;Kyung-Yeol, Choi;Sang-Hyuk, Kwon
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.562-569
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    • 2022
  • The alarm monitoring technology applied to existing operating ships manages data items such as temperature and pressure with AMS (Alarm Monitoring System) and provides an alarm to the crew should these sensing data exceed the normal level range. In addition, the maintenance of existing ships follows the Planned Maintenance System (PMS). whereby the sensing data measured from the equipment is monitored and if it surpasses the set range, maintenance is performed through an alarm, or the corresponding part is replaced in advance after being used for a certain period of time regardless of whether the target device has a malfunction or not. To secure the reliability and operational safety of ship engine operation, it is necessary to enable advanced diagnosis and prediction based on real-time condition monitoring data. To do so, comprehensive measurement of actual ship data, creation of a database, and implementation of a condition diagnosis monitoring system for condition-based predictive maintenance of auxiliary equipment and piping must take place. Furthermore, the system should enable management of auxiliary equipment and piping status information based on a responsive web, and be optimized for screen and resolution so that it can be accessed and used by various mobile devices such as smartphones as well as for viewing on a PC on board. This update cost is low, and the management method is easy. In this paper, we propose CBM (Condition Based Management) technology, for autonomous ships. This core technology is used to identify abnormal phenomena through state diagnosis and monitoring of pumps and purifiers among ship auxiliary equipment, and seawater and steam pipes among pipes. It is intended to provide performance diagnosis and failure prediction of ship auxiliary equipment and piping for convergence analysis, and to support preventive maintenance decision-making.

Prediction of Expected Residual Useful Life of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters Using Stochastic Gamma Process (추계학적 감마 확률과정을 이용한 경사제의 기대 잔류유효수명 예측)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.158-169
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    • 2019
  • A probabilistic model that can predict the residual useful lifetime of structure is formulated by using the gamma process which is one of the stochastic processes. The formulated stochastic model can take into account both the sampling uncertainty associated with damages measured up to now and the temporal uncertainty of cumulative damage over time. A method estimating several parameters of stochastic model is additionally proposed by introducing of the least square method and the method of moments, so that the age of a structure, the operational environment, and the evolution of damage with time can be considered. Some features related to the residual useful lifetime are firstly investigated into through the sensitivity analysis on parameters under a simple setting of single damage data measured at the current age. The stochastic model are then applied to the rubble-mound breakwater straightforwardly. The parameters of gamma process can be estimated for several experimental data on the damage processes of armor rocks of rubble-mound breakwater. The expected damage levels over time, which are numerically simulated with the estimated parameters, are in very good agreement with those from the flume testing. It has been found from various numerical calculations that the probabilities exceeding the failure limit are converged to the constraint that the model must be satisfied after lasting for a long time from now. Meanwhile, the expected residual useful lifetimes evaluated from the failure probabilities are seen to be different with respect to the behavior of damage history. As the coefficient of variation of cumulative damage is becoming large, in particular, it has been shown that the expected residual useful lifetimes have significant discrepancies from those of the deterministic regression model. This is mainly due to the effect of sampling and temporal uncertainties associated with damage, by which the first time to failure tends to be widely distributed. Therefore, the stochastic model presented in this paper for predicting the residual useful lifetime of structure can properly implement the probabilistic assessment on current damage state of structure as well as take account of the temporal uncertainty of future cumulative damage.

A Machine Learning-based Total Production Time Prediction Method for Customized-Manufacturing Companies (주문생산 기업을 위한 기계학습 기반 총생산시간 예측 기법)

  • Park, Do-Myung;Choi, HyungRim;Park, Byung-Kwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.177-190
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    • 2021
  • Due to the development of the fourth industrial revolution technology, efforts are being made to improve areas that humans cannot handle by utilizing artificial intelligence techniques such as machine learning. Although on-demand production companies also want to reduce corporate risks such as delays in delivery by predicting total production time for orders, they are having difficulty predicting this because the total production time is all different for each order. The Theory of Constraints (TOC) theory was developed to find the least efficient areas to increase order throughput and reduce order total cost, but failed to provide a forecast of total production time. Order production varies from order to order due to various customer needs, so the total production time of individual orders can be measured postmortem, but it is difficult to predict in advance. The total measured production time of existing orders is also different, which has limitations that cannot be used as standard time. As a result, experienced managers rely on persimmons rather than on the use of the system, while inexperienced managers use simple management indicators (e.g., 60 days total production time for raw materials, 90 days total production time for steel plates, etc.). Too fast work instructions based on imperfections or indicators cause congestion, which leads to productivity degradation, and too late leads to increased production costs or failure to meet delivery dates due to emergency processing. Failure to meet the deadline will result in compensation for delayed compensation or adversely affect business and collection sectors. In this study, to address these problems, an entity that operates an order production system seeks to find a machine learning model that estimates the total production time of new orders. It uses orders, production, and process performance for materials used for machine learning. We compared and analyzed OLS, GLM Gamma, Extra Trees, and Random Forest algorithms as the best algorithms for estimating total production time and present the results.

Multiple damage detection of maglev rail joints using time-frequency spectrogram and convolutional neural network

  • Wang, Su-Mei;Jiang, Gao-Feng;Ni, Yi-Qing;Lu, Yang;Lin, Guo-Bin;Pan, Hong-Liang;Xu, Jun-Qi;Hao, Shuo
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.625-640
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    • 2022
  • Maglev rail joints are vital components serving as connections between the adjacent F-type rail sections in maglev guideway. Damage to maglev rail joints such as bolt looseness may result in rough suspension gap fluctuation, failure of suspension control, and even sudden clash between the electromagnets and F-type rail. The condition monitoring of maglev rail joints is therefore highly desirable to maintain safe operation of maglev. In this connection, an online damage detection approach based on three-dimensional (3D) convolutional neural network (CNN) and time-frequency characterization is developed for simultaneous detection of multiple damage of maglev rail joints in this paper. The training and testing data used for condition evaluation of maglev rail joints consist of two months of acceleration recordings, which were acquired in-situ from different rail joints by an integrated online monitoring system during a maglev train running on a test line. Short-time Fourier transform (STFT) method is applied to transform the raw monitoring data into time-frequency spectrograms (TFS). Three CNN architectures, i.e., small-sized CNN (S-CNN), middle-sized CNN (M-CNN), and large-sized CNN (L-CNN), are configured for trial calculation and the M-CNN model with excellent prediction accuracy and high computational efficiency is finally optioned for multiple damage detection of maglev rail joints. Results show that the rail joints in three different conditions (bolt-looseness-caused rail step, misalignment-caused lateral dislocation, and normal condition) are successfully identified by the proposed approach, even when using data collected from rail joints from which no data were used in the CNN training. The capability of the proposed method is further examined by using the data collected after the loosed bolts have been replaced. In addition, by comparison with the results of CNN using frequency spectrum and traditional neural network using TFS, the proposed TFS-CNN framework is proven more accurate and robust for multiple damage detection of maglev rail joints.